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Now I know you’re lying.
How?
This statement is false.
Now you know I must have lied.
I always make friends where I work, and when people talk about golf I know right then we won’t be hanging out.
I never really made friends at work. I like to be as detached as possible.
I thought about our conversation earlier when the waitress said they were out of chocolate cream pie, but they did have a slice of French Silk.
Peter P Says:
> And getting into a top college means nothing either.
Some of the smartest (and most successful) guys I know are Kauffman Fellows:
http://www.kauffmanfellows.org/
It must be some kind of fluke that since “getting in to a top college means nothing†that so many Kauffman Fellows went to top schools…
If I am at a party at the home of anyone that works in VC or PE there is a 50% chance that anyone I talk to will have a degree from Harvard, Stanford, or Wharton…
Some of the smartest (and most successful) guys I know have opposable thumbs... ;)
Just another way to look down at someone else. I used to hate some engineers at an old job because all they could do is complain out of jealousy that the HR manager (who made more than them) had received a BBA degree from National University.
That's the thing with engineers, they just don't get it. It wasn't the school (for those out of CA National is a bit of a joke) they should be knocking, it's the fact that she F'd the right guy who took her along with him throughout his career.
Just another way to look down at someone else. I used to hate some engineers at an old job because all they could do is complain out of jealousy that the HR manager (who made more than them) had received a BBA degree from National University.
Very true.
Another way to look at it: the manager made more than they did with just a BBA degree. I think they need to wake up. One cannot find truth in a degree. One must go make some truth.
The reason I posed this question is, would you therefore have no moral qualms about investing in a ponzi scheme? A ponzi is purely speculative, based on greater fool thinking.
Nothing wrong if it is legal.
That's what I said. :)
But really, engineers are like that. They are so worried about what someone else has going on that their morale goes to crap and they end up getting canned. Engineers remind me of migrant workers in the fact that they continuously make themselves disposable. They are absolutely appalling when it comes to money, I know some that are hating the housing market. You know, the trend pointed up so that is where prices are heading.
Engineers also try to be logical and rational. However, they are frequently emotionally immature. As a result, they keep wondering why they are not making the right decisions.
First ripping someone off (lying or not delivering value) is wrong in my book. Anytime you are defrauding someone it is unethical/immoral To be clear a ponzi is merely a hopeless mess requiring increasing infusion to keep it afloat. Legitimate models can find themselves in this situation.
I think you mean pyramid schemes, and they are not becoming anymore popular than they have always been. No I would not participate in one, and I don't see a similarity between a pyramid scheme and putting an asset out on the open market for sale.
BTW, I am an engineer.
Is it ethical to profit from the demise of others?
I would say yes. Doing so will release resources from the less-competent, which is a good thing.
What to short next?
First ripping someone off (lying or not delivering value) is wrong in my book. Anytime you are defrauding someone it is unethical/immoral To be clear a ponzi is merely a hopeless mess requiring increasing infusion to keep it afloat. Legitimate models can find themselves in this situation.
Fraud is wrong and illegal. But profiting from the delusional is perfectly fine.
Peter, it was like watching an infant. They haven't got a clue how the world works. They try to approach everything with logic and then get frustrated because they can't cope with the fact that their logic is a little different than how the masses think. They are always Johnny come latelys and have no concept of first mover advantages, or establishing a competitive advantage. Duh, the trend is this, or they sold it for....I should be able to....
When I filled out one of my disclosure forms for a home sale, I joked with my agent (he's an engineer...I have a funny story about that too) that I should probably disclose that the buyer is committing financial suicide.
They try to approach everything with logic and then get frustrated because they can’t cope with the fact that their logic is a little different than how the masses think.
Very true.
or establishing a competitive advantage
Then they complain that no one is leveling the playing field for them. The whole point in life is about finding slopped playing fields. :)
it just struck me how similar investing in a highly speculative market....
Speculative markets are not always wrong, history looks back and decides if they were speculative or precursory.
Not all speculators end up being paraded in front of Congress as victims.
Speculative markets are not always wrong, history looks back and decides if they were speculative or precursory.
It is always speculative going forward and precursory after the fact.
The whole point in life is about finding slopped playing fields.
Absolutely, I think you figured them out. My engineer realtor happens to be my best friend, I sort of mentored him and that is when he became a realtor and I let him do some deals for me, but it was very interesting to see the a ha effect when he saw me doing things like during negotiation that were counter intuitive. Perfect example, the funny thing I hinted at earlier, the buyer came up $5,000 and I came down $500. He's like, "Malcolm don't you think you should come down the same amount they came up?" Or on another deal, I was asking $320K, their initial offer was $310. I countered back at $325 and he was stunned when they took it. They just have no concept of human interactions.
I think that is what I was saying. The point being if I'm speculating I'm paying a premium for something which may or may not be inline with the current way of pricing, but sometimes you get rich going against the grain. When I bought my first house I was considered a speculator, even my family thought it was a crazy move. You know, the trend had been downward in 1995.
I educated him very quickly about the balance of power in a sellers market and now the buyers market. I wasn't even playing mind games, I knew the buyers wanted desperately to buy, and out of all the sales they did the best because they bought early 2004 and they have some equity if they didn't do something really dumb.
And it's logical that's why I don't get engineers.
Probability of asking to get an outrageous price on something or a deal on something else admittedly is less than 100%.
Pobability of getting the same result by not asking?....0%
dear wishful, welcome back maggot fucking confusedrenter, ahhhh whats the matter bunky not getting sufficient traction on craigslist?
Sweet del.icio.us Amerikan capitialism. mmmmm now that's some tasty profits.
tinyurl.com/3ay5dk
I thought IT was another order of Uni?
That is coming too. :)
I still think uni is better cooked.
http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/pmms30.htm
All, please forgive my "poetic license" but also notice that the late 70's and in fact the entire decade that followed would *not be characterized as an "era of low interest rates"
1978 9.64
1979 11.20
1980 13.74
1982 16.04
I could go on but please to notice that the 30 yr. did not revisit "single digits" until 1991 at 9.25%. Let's keep in mind, these were FRM rates! I can't even talk about c/c and auto loans! So 1977 marked the LAST year of near normal rates and our descent into interest rate HELL! To say that making a major purchase in this environment would have been a "no brainer" is beyond me.
Boomtown Says:
> Anybody find any parallels between Elite College
> admissions/tuition rates and Tier 1 properties in
> coastal cities?
I have said before that the tuition at top schools and the price of homes in top areas should increase more than the tuition at crappy schools and the price of crappy homes but that does not mean that we don’t have a bubble.
In 1976 tuition at the Junior University in Palo Alto was ~$4K
In 1976 Charles Schwab bought a home just north of the University for ~$230K (188 Fair Oaks in Atherton if you want to look it up).
Today the tuition at the Junior University is ~$33K (Up 824%)
Today big homes like Chucks around Fair Oaks are selling for about $12mm (Up 5,217%)
Paul,
That would be correct. The data I posted above is actually annual averages. (And people today complain about a "loan lock"?)
For our ever bullish friend, 1977 was a VERY fortunate entry point. I was in high school at the time but I DO recall parents counselling young couples to *not buy at the time as it would be suicidal! Long term leases were really popular and people worked w/ their LL to make improvements and do decorating. Why? Because we're going to be here for a long, long time! Many renters at the time had verbal/written agreements to actually purchase the home when rates returned to a more normal level.
If they couldn't work with the LL they'd find someone else that would work w/them.
FAB,
I believe that was the year they de-regulated securities commissions (prior to that they were "fixed") ushering in the era of the discounters. I hear he also has a place in MT, ID, CO...
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http://www.time.com/time/printout/0,8816,915445,00.html
Sound familiar? Yet another story from 2005? Nope... the publication date of this article was September 12, 1977 - nearly 30 years ago.
Let's look at some other snippets from this time capsule:
Does anyone know what happened to the housing market in California after 1977? Or was the impact of Prop 13 too influential in the resulting statistics?
And finally, the social impact:
So... this was in 9/1977. Now, it's hard enough predicting what 9/2007 will be like - but what do you think September 12, 2037 will be like?
Already, both parents are working, realtors are spinning the Bay Area as a place so great that you don't need to take vacations - what's next? Will child labor make a come back? ("Monta Vista High School and Fireworks Factory #88"?) How much more special can it get here?
(Bonus points for including Peak Oil in your prediction...)
#housing