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Peter P
I'm honest enough to admit that I don't have the answer to that. We've discussed all kinds of stuff here over the years, but I've found none of it to be at all practical, likely, or sometimes even tolerable.
My dream is to start a non-profit that tackle our society's problems.
"Do you belong to either of those two groups?"
You can't ask that question too early in life!
The BA and CA in general may be extreme examples but I think we could find other areas where this is an issue as well. When I got out of HS wages and the econ. in general sucked, but there was a big difference. If you showed up on time (usually) and got your SS# correct on your application you were already considered for promotion. Benefits were a given and advancement was simply a matter of "toughing it out". We're failing these kids in ways and with consequences we can't even imagine.
"Rent isn’t that expensive - especially in the East Bay. Right?"
If you are earning 20k-35k per year, yes rent is VERY expensive. I think some people forget that not everyone starts out at 70k per year from college.
As an example, there is someone here working in an office job (post university BS degree) making 32K per year. Thats:
$2666.67 per month gross
X .70 (an average of what you keep after witholding on your paycheck this includes health insurance premiums at work, social security, disability, medicare, fed income tax, and CA state income tax)
You are left with $1866.67 net (take home)
I would say that your average rent on a studio here in the East Bay is roughly $700-$875 per month. I help my homeless youth find apartments regularly here (Oakland-Berkeley-San Leandro) and usually the low end of $700 is in some very bad neighborhoods.
So, here is a sample budget with a car for a typical 20 year-old:
1866.67 (take home pay)
MINUS EXPENSES:
750.00 (Rent)
35.00 (Phone)
40.00 (PG&E)
175.00 (Groceries Based on $40 per week (52weeks*40=2080/12=173.33))
300.00 (Car payment (Just your average car payment))
200.00 (Car insurance (Remember this is someone under 25 years old in the BA))
60.00 (Clothing)
---------------------
1560.00 (total expenses)
So that leaves only about $300 left for other incidentals like medication, expenses not covered by healthcare plan, hair cuts, entertainment, and a typical student loan payment of around $200 on up!
Living here in the Bay Area is very expensive... That same studio apartment, where I come from in the Midwest where there are jobs actually, would be around $450. And, the car insurance would be around $80-$85 a month.
It's easy to see why those with entry-level jobs with university degrees in something other than law, technology, engineering, etc. either end up with major debt or simply leave the area.
Living here in the Bay Area is very expensive… That same studio apartment, where I come from in the Midwest where there are jobs actually, would be around $450. And, the car insurance would be around $80-$85 a month.
Very good point.
One of the things that really cracks me up are Bay Area lifers who say: Well except for housing, the cost of living here isn't so bad
Uh, hello. The aside from housing, the cost of living here is almost the same as NYC. And it's not NYC here. That's broken.
But then again, most Bay Area lifers have never been outside the Bay Area I guess.
You have my deepest respect. We should be entirely disgusted with ourselves as a society that we have utterly failed so many of our own children.
What happened to the libertarian thinking that so pervades this site?
...there is no such thing as society. There are individual men and women, and there are families.
-Margaret Thatcher
Uh, hello. The aside from housing, the cost of living here is almost the same as NYC.
I would say high-end food costs quite a bit more in NYC.
I thought eburbed was kidding about the rent, weren't you? Anyway, yeah rents here are much higher than just about anywhere I've ever lived or visited in the US. A couple of exceptions: Manhattan and Honolulu, both of which also have a severe homelessness problem.
I’m 48. Guess what? I’m STILL paying for car insurance! Uh it doesn’t go away. Why couldn’t we at least give young people the option to get more affordable insurance up front and then less of a break when they hit 25 and/or get married?
Our suburban way of living cracks me up. It really does a great job of keeping poor people poor. Gas, insurance, new tires occasionally - we do a great job of keeping the bar for having a job high.
This will be even more humorous as gas prices soar to $6 a gallon in the near future.
@eburbed,
It's easy to see where Bubblized (in more ways than one) Bay Aryans might get this mentality from. We have a government that keeps telling us, "Well except for house prices, food, energy and medicine, inflation isn't so bad".
What happened to the libertarian thinking that so pervades this site?
Too bad this state is far from libertarian. We maintain that a freer economy would have solved many problems.
eburbed,
Gas won't even have to flirt w/$6 a gal. to see major stress cracks. Min./lower wage folks can live w/higher gas prices for awhile but anything more than a few months and they'll have to throw some ballast over the side to remain aloft. Question is, what do you do when you've nothing left to jettison?
A couple of exceptions: Manhattan and Honolulu, both of which also have a severe homelessness problem.
I do not get Honolulu. It is so hot why would people want to live there?
HARM,
As much as it pains me to say it, "Slightly Richer Than Your Dad" said that several months back. Not that it was an original thought by any means but now in his 50's... he's finally figured it out! :)
Gas won’t even have to flirt w/$6 a gal. to see major stress cracks. Min./lower wage folks can live w/higher gas prices for awhile but anything more than a few months and they’ll have to throw some ballast over the side to remain aloft. Question is, what do you do when you’ve nothing left to jettison?
I see gas riots in our future. I seem to recall a spite of gas station related crimes and booming pawnshop business in Texas when gas prices first started rocketing up in 2005.
The problem exists because many people are not doing enough to ensure the success of their kids. They do not spend enough time on them and they did not spend enough money on their education.
eburbed,
I don't know if you were being facetious or not, but that represents a rather extreme, narrow (and inaccurate) view of libertarianism. Please refer to the following relevant past threads:
How does one regulate “well†?
The Libertarianism-Morality Conundrum
The limits of “Caveat Emptorâ€
Honolulu is not too hot for me, until the trade winds stop, and then it's as miserable as Valdosta in August.
The numbers of people living in parks on Oahu just astounded me. I had no idea. I had always had an idealized view of the lovely natives living care free in the coconut fields ... instead it was more like downtown Long Beach, with people literally sleeping on the courthouse steps. Tragic.
I see gas riots in our future. I seem to recall a spite of gas station related crimes and booming pawnshop business in Texas when gas prices first started rocketing up in 2005.
We need to be very vocal about this: NO PRICE CONTROL.
If gas needs to be $16/gal so be it. Interfering with the market will do no good.
@eburbed,
Is that right? Wow, and gas is usually cheapest there. Personally I wouldn't mind seeing more pawnshops but remember for every "great deal" there's a long sad story behind it. :(
Isn't that Vonnegut said about the internet?
It accomplished what the mob could never do. (Put a pawnshop and bookie joint in every home in America!)
The problem exists because many people are not doing enough to ensure the success of their kids. They do not spend enough time on them and they did not spend enough money on their education.
Isn't that like saying: If poor people weren't poor, then they wouldn't be poor.
LowlySmartRenter,
I think all mainlanders have the same idyllic fantasy about what HI is going to be like (until they get there). Funny you would mention that, I was stationed on a ship in LB and our first stop was Pearl. Got off the boat and damned if it didn't look just like LB?
Is that right? Wow, and gas is usually cheapest there. Personally I wouldn’t mind seeing more pawnshops but remember for every “great deal†there’s a long sad story behind it
Gas is cheaper, but people there drive a lot more. Some of the commutes the people in Houston have are simply shocking.
http://cbs11tv.com/local/local_story_110231803.html
High gasoline prices are causing some people to take desperate measures.
Pawn shops say their business is increasing, with some customers saying they're selling things to buy gas.
Gas prices are climbing again, with most stations prices hovering at, or just below $3.00 a gallon. For some people the high fuel prices are overwhelming.
"Some of the construction people tell us they are having to pawn their tools to buy gas, but when they pawn their tools they can't go out and work in the construction business ‘cause their tools are in pawn. So it kind of a catch-22,†Costner said.
[snip]
“We've always had a clientele of the young kids, or middle age kids, and now we’re getting an older generation. Which, it just seems wrong that they have to pawn things just to get gas, or ya know, to make ends meet on things like that."
Isn’t that like saying: If poor people weren’t poor, then they wouldn’t be poor.
No. But if one cannot reasonably ensure the relative success of his children, why have them at all?
HARM
The term lIbErTaRiAn has become so perverted by internet extremists (who are often just self-serving reactionaries right wingers that want to be allowed to smoke pot) that I don't even like to use it anymore.
Randy H,
I know this is a topic we've covered to some degree before, but please refresh my memory: in your mind what primarily distinguishes an "objectivist" from a libertarian? According to some sources, the objectivists are the hard-core Ayn Rand pro laissez-faire anti-regulation dogmatists, while according to other sources, this description applies more to the Libertarians.
eburbed,
That is whacked! You're right though, I'm sure they drive more than most of us.
Thanks to all who posted re: the BA job market. It's helpful to me in order to get a better understanding as to where the tech arena is at from an "in the trenches" perspective. Many thanks,
DinOR
Bork, they are moving people into position and gearing up the S-1 registration. Some people are being asked to leave. Buts thats all.
It was salesforce.com that bruised Siebel badly. I expect Netsuite to
give many other small- mid-tier ERP vendors an equal bruising..
Let me tell you buying salesforce at 11 was the best investment I made.
Im out now and happy as a canary. Before you invest make sure you read
the S-1 cover to cover and word for word -- several times over.
HARM
There are a set of principles which guide Objectivism. Libertarianism is a loose collection of convenient interpretations of the market which serve the goals of those calling themselves Libertarians.
http://www.aynrand.org/site/PageServer?pagename=faq_index#obj_q3
emphasis added
Does Objectivism support Libertarianism?
"For the record, I shall repeat what I have said many times before: I do not join or endorse any political group or movement. More specifically, I disapprove of, disagree with and have no connection with, the latest aberration of some conservatives, the so-called 'hippies of the right,' who attempt to snare the younger or more careless ones of my readers by claiming simultaneously to be followers of my philosophy and advocates of anarchism. Anyone offering such a combination confesses his inability to understand either. Anarchism is the most irrational, anti-intellectual notion ever spun by the concrete-bound, context-dropping, whim-worshiping fringe of the collectivist movement, where it properly belongs."
[Ayn Rand, "Brief Summary," The Objectivist, September 1971]
"Above all, do not join the wrong ideological groups or movements, in order to 'do something.' By 'ideological' (in this context), I mean groups or movements proclaiming some vaguely generalized, undefined (and, usually, contradictory) political goals. (E.g., the Conservative Party, which subordinates reason to faith, and substitutes theocracy for capitalism; or the 'libertarian' hippies, who subordinate reason to whims, and substitute anarchism for capitalism.) To join such groups means to reverse the philosophical hierarchy and to sell out fundamental principles for the sake of some superficial political action which is bound to fail. It means that you help the defeat of your ideas and the victory of your enemies."
[Ayn Rand, "What Can One Do?" Philosophy: Who Needs It]
The reality is that Libertarianism sells better than Objectivism. Similarly, freedom of choice sells better than individual responsibility
Simcha Says:
> First time poster, long-time lurker here.
Glad we were able to get you to post…
> OK, I am a psychotherapist intern working with 18-25
> year-old homeless youth in the East Bay.
> I don’t see any problem with holding onto my job and
> sadly, I see growth in this industry.
My best friend’s sister works with 14-25 year-old kids (mostly girls) who have homes but have major problems (usually related to either rich controlling parents who freak when they are not perfect or rich hard working parents who are so busy with their careers that they would not even notice if the kid died)…
> 18-25 year-olds who are just starting out in life here in the
> BA CANNOT pay for even the basic expenses at entry-level
> jobs. Also, even a rich area like the BA needs burger-flippers,
> janitorial services, manual laborers, etc. and these people
> certainly can’t afford the cost of living here.
It is not much tougher to be an 18-25 year old kid today as is was when I was an 18-25 year old kid. As a college student I worked two jobs and shared a room to save on rent until I graduated. Kids today will laugh if you tell them to share a room (or get a second job)...
> These 18-25 year-olds end up homeless and if they’re lucky
> they end up in our transitional housing program so that they
> can save up for the down payment on an apartment and furniture…
I have never met a homeless person that was homeless due to money issues. It is usually a long list of problems that includes substance abuse and/or metal problems (friends or family will not let people sleep on the street unless they are scared of them)…
> We have a vast underclass of 18-25 year-olds growing up in the
> BA who cannot afford to live on their own even when they are
> gainfully employed. Even the smart, talented, and educated ones
> aren’t able to make it because housing is so ridiculously out of
> reach for someone entering the workforce.
It costs a lot to buy a place in the Bay Area, but renting is not that expensive if you have a job and are relatively presentable (so you don’t scare people when they are interviewing roommates)…
"Living here in the Bay Area is very expensive… "
Thats a mispercention over its history. Actuall products are as cheap as anyplace else. Its the services from others you have to stay away from.
Fact is many people did afford homes in the 1970s. My dad was a carpenter who made enough to pay for mortgage and then some.
The same is true with the mid 80s and mid 90's. You just got to learn
to stay away from the land sharks ( service industry ) that is the big wallet bitter.
There is too much hype in the Bay Area. Big difference is we didnt have what I call "Google Groupies" running around. If you believe its expensive then you will except the prices and overpay. Just say no!
"Anyone see Google’s earnings? Holy cow."
Reminds me of a few B2B companies of 1999 (Gone) and early days at Intel , Apple (had some bad days), Tandem (Gone) and Silicon Graphics (Semi-Gone), Sun (Life Support). Goog will have its day too.
"It costs a lot to buy a place in the Bay Area,"
At the present moment only... that will pass too.
"but renting is not that expensive if you have a job and are relatively presentable (so you don’t scare people when they are interviewing roommates)…"
Exactly, Its good to develop sound budget and savings plan not to mention patients. It builds confidence and security. Just avoid the Service Industry like (Strip Joints) ...
Thanks, Randy.
"Objectivism" seems to be a better description of the prevailing political philosophy of most regular contributors here, incl. me. Unfortunately, there is no "Objectivist Party" capable of mobilizing like-minded Americans disgusted with the corrupt two-party dualopoly, but also not willing to embrace socia1ism. The closest thing so far still seems to be the Libertarian Party, despite including a significant % of extreme right-wing narcissist/anarchists among the ranks.
HARM
An "Objectivist Party" is antithetical. There used to be (still may be) a close adherent in the Natural Law Party. It actually outpolled the Libertarian Party at it's peak (because they had a strong presidential candidate...have you ever really looked in the National Libertarian candidates? I wouldn't have these guys walk my dog usually).
it is not much tougher to be an 18-25 year old kid today as is was when I was an 18-25 year old kid. As a college student I worked two jobs and shared a room to save on rent until I graduated. Kids today will laugh if you tell them to share a room (or get a second job)…
Ironically I'd say the opposite. I think it definitely is a lot tougher to be younger today than in the past. Among other things, college fees/tuition has gone up almost as much as... well... housing.
The tuition at the school i went to went up 5-7% year over year after I graduated. I'm pretty sure that wasn't limited to my school.
Salaries have also definitely not kept up with real inflation (e.g. the inflation number that includes food and energy)
I have never met a homeless person that was homeless due to money issues. It is usually a long list of problems that includes substance abuse and/or metal problems (friends or family will not let people sleep on the street unless they are scared of them)…
I used to feel the same way, until I spent a day volunteering with the United Way. That's when I learned that there's two classes of Homeless people: Visible and Invisible.
Visible: the stinky psychotic people you see in Downtown Palo Alto, Santa Cruz, and Van Ness in SF. They're also chronically homeless. Apparently these represent only a small segment of homeless people. (The crazy male population.)
Invisible: Women and children. There's a lot of these but they're in shelters and otherwise taken care of. It also may be temporary - 2 months at a time, etc. Apparently, this is the vast majority.
What you see is the tip of the iceberg - and ironically the unhelp-able portion. What you don't see is the problem.
Thats a mispercention over its history. Actuall products are as cheap as anyplace else. Its the services from others you have to stay away from.
Dude - groceries at Safeway are 20% more expensive here than the same items at Safeway in Seattle.
Check out the study I did here:
http://www.burbed.com/2006/12/25/heres-your-christmas-gift-20-savings-on-groceries/
Why green beans, ginger, milk, and grape jelly are all 40% more expensive here than they are in Seattle boggles my mind.
El Jefe,
I hear what you're saying about the Bay Area "trustafarians", but I don't think those are specifically the kinds of people to whom Simcha was referring. I think he was saying is that, surviving on your own is extremely hard now even for young people who are willing to forgo 'luxuries' and live spartan lifestyles. And this reality jives with my own personal experience. Hell, I left CA 14 years ago and probably would have stayed gone if a family crisis hadn't forced me back. I'm actually fairly contented with where I am now (renting in a nice neighborhood), but am keeping my options open.
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It has often been said here that the only thing that will cause a drop in Bay Area housing prices is widespread job-losses.
Perversely, this is actually also used as a spurious justification not to hope for a drop in prices -
Proof by denial, as it were. Ignoring the completely asinine logic inherent in that line of argument...
I would like to discuss what you think are the prospects of the job market here.
What industry are you in? What is the outlook for your niche? What are your employers doing? Don't name any employers, just share general information about what the hiring trend is for late 2007 and beyond.
My own expectation is that we will see a slowdown in the second half of 2007. Based on the financing I have seen, I also expect trouble in the web-2.0 startup scene by the end of the year, when some of them will fail to get additional funding and will either be acquired for i.p., or shut down in early '08. And this is even before factoring in macro issues like tech-spending and the larger economic picture.
What do you think?
SP
#housing