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Jobs, jobs, jobs


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2007 Apr 18, 5:04pm   38,050 views  444 comments

by SP   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

It has often been said here that the only thing that will cause a drop in Bay Area housing prices is widespread job-losses.

Perversely, this is actually also used as a spurious justification not to hope for a drop in prices -

"Prices will drop only if jobs disappear, and you would not want to lose your job, would you? So you better not hope for a drop in price."

Proof by denial, as it were. Ignoring the completely asinine logic inherent in that line of argument...

I would like to discuss what you think are the prospects of the job market here.

What industry are you in? What is the outlook for your niche? What are your employers doing? Don't name any employers, just share general information about what the hiring trend is for late 2007 and beyond.

My own expectation is that we will see a slowdown in the second half of 2007. Based on the financing I have seen, I also expect trouble in the web-2.0 startup scene by the end of the year, when some of them will fail to get additional funding and will either be acquired for i.p., or shut down in early '08. And this is even before factoring in macro issues like tech-spending and the larger economic picture.

What do you think?
SP

#housing

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198   Different Sean   2007 Apr 19, 2:23pm  

If you ignore a few hundred people now, work hard and get rich, then you may be able to help a few thousand people in the future.

yes, same good ol' american fatalism and individualism. the most likely outcome of every ostrich putting their head in the sand is:

1) you probably won't get very rich, in all statistical likelihood -- there is only 1 bill gates
2) even if you do, you probably won't give much of it away -- after all, you were willing to ignore the hundreds in your youth
3) you have done nothing to really change the overarching system for the better

however, what that thinking does do is let you ignore every problem 'until you become rich', which might be never, and conveniently put off doing anything for decades while giving yourself a convincing sounding moral sop and excuse at parties...

199   DaBoss   2007 Apr 19, 3:00pm  

Yes Just Me ...
We have forgotten how much talent and disciple these mavericks have.
What would Apple be if Jobs didnt return?

200   DaBoss   2007 Apr 19, 3:03pm  

Simcha - your background mirror mine.

201   DaBoss   2007 Apr 19, 3:09pm  

bruceb -
Banquet Dinner 10 for 10 bucks Safway frozen dinner
Milk half gallon
Crystal Light
Some soups on sale
Frozen Chix breasts in bulk
Some fruits and veg from farmers market Sat AM half block away
and drink Tap Water....

Sorry No Booze

202   PAR   2007 Apr 19, 3:10pm  

Space Ace, I meant that I work in "b2b" only in the sense that it ain't a consumer play. I don't work for Ariba or CommerceOne...

203   Randy H   2007 Apr 19, 3:12pm  

Funny DS, and here I thought philanthropic ideals were an American invention. Let me ask you this, which major country has the highest per capita private donation rate? How much of the percentage of their wealth earned do the great American "oligarchs" give away? How much is Bill Gates giving away? Warren Buffet? By contrast, how much have the monarchs or ruling political classes of Europe given away?

204   e   2007 Apr 19, 3:22pm  

This may be construed as spam

I decided to set up a cafepress site for my blog - but I just wanted to run it by you guys first:

http://www.cafepress.com/burbed

There are basically 2 slogans there - and they're our favorite Realtor slogans. But I can only offer 1 slogan per product. Do you like the current product selection I have there? Do you prefer one slogan over the other?

205   Different Sean   2007 Apr 19, 3:37pm  

How much of the percentage of their wealth earned do the great American “oligarchs” give away?

that's something to research on a holistic, rather than anecdotal, basis, yes. i don't deny the american tradition of philanthropy. philanthropy is optional and discretionary, of course. for instance, how much did wall st stock brokers give away after the last round of bonuses?

there are some fundamental differences in welfare arrangements, tho, where it's probably more important to look at gini coefficients and poverty levels, both relative and aboslute, in any given society, after post-welfare and post-philanthropy transfers.

for instance, it is possible to stay on unemployment benefits for many years in some countries, although efforts are made to get people into work.

the interesting thing in places like sweden is that many jobs that rely on voluntarism and charity in the anglo-american systems are paid-for jobs, which can lead to less dedication in the job being undertaken, but the state has assured that the job will at least be done.

the bill gates/warren buffett phenomenon is A Good Thing, tho, and the Foundation can operate transnationally and without political fear or favour, unlike the national and local focus of governments driven by voter appeal and lobby group influence.

206   SP   2007 Apr 19, 4:03pm  

In the next thread that I start, I will list a few keywords that will trigger deletion. Some of these are "libertarian", "social*st", "capitalist" and any largely irrelevant claptrap ranting from DS. Thanks for understanding. :-)

SP

207   Different Sean   2007 Apr 19, 4:10pm  

SP Says:
In the next thread that I start, I will list a few keywords that will trigger deletion. Some of these are “libertarian”, “social*st”, “capitalist” and any largely irrelevant claptrap ranting from DS. Thanks for understanding.

SP

tell it to the north european welfare states... *nobody* knows what SP stands for...

208   Different Sean   2007 Apr 19, 5:12pm  

for instance, how much did wall st stock brokers give away after the last round of bonuses?

A lot actually…

numbers? graphs? international comparisons? post-transfer poverty figures? why is the crime rate so high? and so on... i'm willing to be converted if it can be proven that this approach works as well or better than the 'citizenship guarantee' approach of the social democrat welfare states.

the discussions around the ongoing cost and delivery of healthcare, lack of insurance etc don't inspire me however. as per the previous cited article on medical (non)insurance and this article for the 3rd time... not to mention the quality of public schools i'm hearing about. so i'm waiting to be impressed...

209   Different Sean   2007 Apr 19, 5:30pm  

JOB related - highly germane to the thread:

MEDICAL EMERGENCY / Neglected for a decade, health care is metastasizing into a new crisis / Live sicker, die younger: The plight of the uninsured

When Bob Wessenberg was laid off, he had no idea how fast the down escalator traveled. "Our life used to be different," says Bob, whose voice betrays the stress he's under. "Our life was comfortable. We had a little left over for nicer things and enough to start saving for a rainy day. Then we got a rainy month, and now we got a rainy year."

After going through all their savings and receiving an additional $10,000 in support from their family, the Wessenbergs had nowhere left to turn. Sheila works a few hours a week doing bookkeeping for Avery labels, earning $14 an hour, and Bob finally landed a menial job scanning documents for $11 an hour. As a 51-year-old Lotus programmer, Bob has become obsolete in today's job market. He has interviewed for more than 300 positions without a prospect in sight.

210   e   2007 Apr 19, 6:25pm  

Good post. I have a feeling there's rampant age discrimination in the Valley. It's not even conscious discrimination - it's just a fact of life.

211   e   2007 Apr 19, 7:02pm  

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB117702825463476245.html.html?mod=home_personal_journal_left

From today's WSJ:

Still, the new crop of "blingdexes" offer further proof the wealthy are increasingly creating their own consumer economy. The number of millionaire households in the U.S. has more than doubled since 1995, according to the Federal Reserve. The total wealth held by the nation's richest 1% has increased more than 50% since 1998, to $16.7 trillion in 2004, the latest period measured by the Fed.

With incomes and wealth soaring for those at the top, spending by the rich has also jumped. Mr. Kapur, in a 2005 Citigroup research note, said that the top 20% of American earners now account for between 37% and 70% of total consumption.

"Today, the good life is defined by the assets you have," says Margaret Mager of Goldman Sachs, which has created the Goldman Sachs High-End Consumer Index. "It's your homes, your cars, how you look, what you wear, who you socialize with, what you eat and drink and ultimately, how important your art collection is. This is definitely fueling the growth in the luxury market and these indexes."

212   astrid   2007 Apr 19, 9:47pm  

DS,

You've got to date these things. At first I was shocked that a person was recently laid off from a Lotus (presumably Lotus Notes) programming position, then I realized the story was from 2002.

213   Different Sean   2007 Apr 19, 11:16pm  

good ol' Lotus Script...

It's a bit like being a VBA programmer... i.e. not very hard... I remember programmers trying to create a DMS in Lotus Script in my govt job...

Sorry about the dated post, somebody else posted it further back as a tiny URL, and I though it was a current article... oh well, principle still applies, they haven't fixed the US health system since...

214   DinOR   2007 Apr 19, 11:46pm  

I'm starting to appreciate Randy H's perspective regarding "group think" as well as Malcom's disdain for "hot button" words slung about for effect.

Do you realize this was nearly an entire thread about employment, the economy and generational differences without ONE mention of the dreaded "B" (b**mer) word? Very productive, very informative thread.

216   DinOR   2007 Apr 19, 11:54pm  

bruceb,DennisN

I actually did Google (Boise+Scam) and got a similar number of hits but didn't see anything specific? I happen to think it's your retirement and if you want to spend it shoveling snow who am I to say anything? I fear though he may have missed the main thrust of Patrick.net.

Just b/c you were able to cash out (and become and equity locust) with CD's and Indexed ETF's doesn't necessarily mean you got a great value? Boise, like many other far flung areas have had a rolling bubble all their own. Again at the risk of "group think" I believe the consensus would have been to: rent for awhile, see if you like the area, find out if your relatives will actually go that far off the beaten track to visit, spend a winter there and wait for prices to fall. IMHO

217   DinOR   2007 Apr 20, 12:00am  

@astrid,

Enjoy it while it lasts! Patrick has a great link today "The Future of US Housing" with Ken Heebner of CGM Realty Fund on Bloomberg's. Pretty sobering look at HF's.

218   HeadSet   2007 Apr 20, 12:02am  

Whether one is "greedy" or not does not stem from one's political beliefs, but how generous one is with his own resources.

A "liberal" physician who takes a month off every year to travel at his own expense to work with Doctors Without Borders shows far more compasion that a "liberal" doctor uses does no charitiy and uses his extra resources to buy a Jaguar.

I have helped charities collect in my youth (never again), and I had noticed (yes, focus group of one) that the more leftist folks tended to give the least. It was as if being in favor of gov poverty programs absolved them of any personal efforts. They did there part by voting. It reminds me of Christians that feel that not believing in evolution absolves them from traditional charity and morality, and the Global Warming Enthusiast who sees no need to cut back on his pollution since he has done enough just by accepting global warming as fact.

In my opinion, personal action beats collectivism. If I help Habitat for Humanity, my resources go directly to the person in need, and are not skimmed off by layers of bureacracy. If want to help with "global warming" (pollution and wasting natural resources is a bad idea, global warming hoax aside) I can best do so by driving a fuel efficient car and bicycling or walking when I can. I can help the poor best by being productive and thrifty enough to not be one of them. I can stay in shape to reduce the load on the health care system.

Or one could drive his Escalade to the private field to pick up Al Gore in his chartered Gulfstream and do lines with him on the way to the Global Warming Rally. Do not forget to thank the politicians at that rally who supported increased dole for unwed moms, after all this helps the 3 children you fathered with 3 different women whom you do not contribute to. Thank those politicians to show you care about the kids.

219   FormerAptBroker   2007 Apr 20, 12:17am  

Different Sean Says:

> As a 51-year-old Lotus programmer, Bob has
> become obsolete in today’s job market. He has
> interviewed for more than 300 positions without
> a prospect in sight.

I bet a buggy whip maker would have an even tougher time getting a job… It’s not like Lotus (as a spreadsheet) and Lotus (as an e-mail suite) blew up, both have been losing market share for over a decade.

I think Randy mentioned having a TRS80 in the 70’s and I also had a TRS80, but about sophomore year in HS I got an Apple II and upgraded to the hot new “Applesoft Basic”. I know how to use a TRS80 and took a lot of classes learning how to program in Applesoft Basic, but I don’t include the skills on my resume since I know that they are about as worthless as the ability to use or program Lotus products…

220   DinOR   2007 Apr 20, 12:20am  

Headset,

Spoken like a true gentleman!

You won't hear me rattling on about global warming (but I work at home) walk to the post office for my daily mailing and I've put countless nieces and nephews through college out of pocket. We helped build a small visiting clinic in my wife's hometown back in the P.I but according to my friends I'm a conservative @$$hole.

221   Different Sean   2007 Apr 20, 12:21am  

HeadSet Says:
I have helped charities collect in my youth (never again), and I had noticed (yes, focus group of one) that the more leftist folks tended to give the least. It was as if being in favor of gov poverty programs absolved them of any personal efforts.

I have done the same, and so have friends, and they report that the affluent areas give the least, or not at all (i.e. close the door, or are behind gate intercoms), and the people living in poorer housing are 1) available, and 2) dig deep in their pockets and give up money that they can ill afford to give for good causes with good grace. So it just depends -- that's a focus group of 3.

222   FormerAptBroker   2007 Apr 20, 12:23am  

HeadSet Says:

> I have helped charities collect in my youth (never
> again), and I had noticed (yes, focus group of one)
> that the more leftist folks tended to give the least.

I’m not one who usually jumps in to defend the left, but since “most” (way more than half) left leaning people are poor they typically have less to give…

223   FormerAptBroker   2007 Apr 20, 12:29am  

Different Sean (who is always looking for a chance to bash the rich) Says:

> I have done the same, and so have friends, and
> they report that the affluent areas give the least,
> or not at all (i.e. close the door, or are behind gate
> intercoms), and the people living in poorer housing
> are 1) available, and 2) dig deep in their pockets
> and give up money that they can ill afford to give
> for good causes with good grace. So it just depends
>— that’s a focus group of 3.

A huge number of people that collect money door to door are scammers (it may be as high as half) so the rich tent to give directly to legitimate charities.

If you look at charitable giving by zip code the gifts to charity from wealthy/conservative zip codes is where charities get about 90% of their funding.

224   HeadSet   2007 Apr 20, 12:29am  

"I’m not one who usually jumps in to defend the left, but since “most” (way more than half) left leaning people are poor they typically have less to give… "

Nice! But the people I did solicit did have money, or at least earnings. Their money may have already been commited to payments on the Volvo or the kid's fox hunting lessons.

225   HeadSet   2007 Apr 20, 12:36am  

DinOr,

Greetings from a fellow Gentleman and Conservative A$$hole!

I too will be on the hook for at least one nephew's college. And I believe we will agree that it is worth it.

A clinic in PI? I shudder to think what you were treating!

226   HeadSet   2007 Apr 20, 12:43am  

"A huge number of people that collect money door to door are scammers (it may be as high as half) so the rich tent to give directly to legitimate charities."

How true. I said "never again' since I found out that United Way was giving the proceeds of my efforts to "charities" that had 90% overhead.

Same with Combined Federal Campaign.

227   DinOR   2007 Apr 20, 12:45am  

Headset,

Oh GOD NO! This is a different world from "Mabini Street" in Manila and the bases have been closed for years. They cooridinated it with the local hospital so that visiting nurses could at least come out and check older folks blood pressure and raise awareness. Remember a lot of these people have never even taken an aspirin so even a modest effort was an improvement. The nurses see it as a "working vacation" and stay with my wife's family. Also a lot of these kids are born without a birth certificate and that can make it hard when they apply for jobs/college.

228   astrid   2007 Apr 20, 12:46am  

I never give money when a person is asking me for money. That includes my alma mater's annual fund raising efforts.

229   DinOR   2007 Apr 20, 12:48am  

Headset,

There's actually been a shift in mindset amongst the wealthy. They're so tired of "leakage" many just volunteer directly at their church or whatever.

230   DinOR   2007 Apr 20, 12:49am  

@SQT,

Hey SQT! :)

231   HeadSet   2007 Apr 20, 12:55am  

Astrid says

"I never give money when a person is asking me for money. That includes my alma mater’s annual fund raising efforts."

You alma mata may be using a service to do the calling. A service that takes serious juice from the proceeds.

232   astrid   2007 Apr 20, 1:03am  

Headset,

Actually, I know exactly how they do fundraising and I approve of the general methods (they hire current students at about $10/hr + commission if do really well), but I just can't stomach people hitting me up for money.

233   astrid   2007 Apr 20, 1:05am  

Plus, fundraising from young alums is mostly an alumni relationship thing, there's very little money in it. The serious money comes from rich old guys with third wives looking to put their name on buildings and chairs and people contemplating death.

234   HeadSet   2007 Apr 20, 1:29am  

"The serious money comes from rich old guys with third wives looking to put their name on buildings and chairs and people contemplating death."

I have read in our local paper how William and Mary (Thomas Jefferson's Alma Mata) recently recieved 2 large donations from widows. Both contributions were unexpected and from women who lived in a manner that people who knew them were suprised they had the millions.

235   Randy H   2007 Apr 20, 1:59am  

SQT

:)

236   Jimbo   2007 Apr 20, 2:07am  

Simcha,

You can afford to live on that in East Bay, or actually much less. Here is how you do it: cut your mortgage cost to $500 by sharing a house with someone in a reasonably safe neighborhood near BART. Get rid of the car, you don't need it. Those two changes cut your costs in half.

How do I know this works? This is how I lived for many years after I first moved to the Bay Area. In fact, I know a bunch of people who still live like this now. Yeah, I know it kind of sucks to have to live like a college student well into your 30s but that is the only way most people can afford to live here.

237   sfbubblebuyer   2007 Apr 20, 2:15am  

My family is pretty well off (I'm not) and gives serious bling to charity. My grandparents built a building for a small religious college and a library for a big secular college. They also gave to tradition charities. My parents give livestock to third world villiages every year. In our names. It's our christmas present. :)

Me, I usually give to police/fireman's widow and children's education funds.

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