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Jobs, jobs, jobs


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2007 Apr 18, 5:04pm   38,192 views  444 comments

by SP   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

It has often been said here that the only thing that will cause a drop in Bay Area housing prices is widespread job-losses.

Perversely, this is actually also used as a spurious justification not to hope for a drop in prices -

"Prices will drop only if jobs disappear, and you would not want to lose your job, would you? So you better not hope for a drop in price."

Proof by denial, as it were. Ignoring the completely asinine logic inherent in that line of argument...

I would like to discuss what you think are the prospects of the job market here.

What industry are you in? What is the outlook for your niche? What are your employers doing? Don't name any employers, just share general information about what the hiring trend is for late 2007 and beyond.

My own expectation is that we will see a slowdown in the second half of 2007. Based on the financing I have seen, I also expect trouble in the web-2.0 startup scene by the end of the year, when some of them will fail to get additional funding and will either be acquired for i.p., or shut down in early '08. And this is even before factoring in macro issues like tech-spending and the larger economic picture.

What do you think?
SP

#housing

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243   astrid   2007 Apr 20, 3:01am  

I don't think firemen and policemen need more money from us. Don't they already get great death benefits from their respective fire/police departments? (I guess I'm speaking as a leftist - I can't help but think there are much more worthy and important causes than housing homeless pets and giving comfortably off firemen's widows more money).

244   astrid   2007 Apr 20, 3:03am  

I'm not at all surprised at the age discrimination problem. The reality is that for the vast majority of people, the ability to quickly memorize large amounts of new information drop off greatly after you're 40. It's made up somewhat by improved experience and (hopefully) work ethics. In addition, you just can't work 40+ year olds as hard, they have families.

245   DinOR   2007 Apr 20, 3:05am  

It's not bad enough every stockbroker on both coasts and every looney tune w/ a "revolutionary e-mail search engine" is hitting you up, you need THIS?

I didn't mean to "dis" anyone with a real appreciation for opera etc. it's just that most arts that require THAT much subsidizing become dead arts. With the "b**mer death clock" ticking each passing moment might spell the end for the smphony as well?

When people mention "the classics" I just assume they're talking about Magic Sam at the Ann Arbor Blues Festival?

246   DinOR   2007 Apr 20, 3:11am  

astrid,

Agreed on the "networking" thing.

We had a local sheriff (Damon Coates, great guy) break up a family dispute and took a "slug" in the jaw. What's weird, is that he *didn't die! Now he's disabled for life, is not entitled to a full pension and had lots of rehab. just to function in a wheel chair. There are cases where it's needed.

247   astrid   2007 Apr 20, 3:14am  

DinOR,

My understanding is that fire and police departments also give good disability benefits.

Obviously, if there is a real need for charity, then money should be going in and properly dispersed to people in need. But I see too many people who donate thoughtlessly, and their donations are really feel good self esteem boosters.

248   sfbubblebuyer   2007 Apr 20, 3:20am  

Astrid,

Cops and firemen actually don't have great benefits, usually. Depends on municipality and whatnot. But I like that those foundations give scholarships/etc, to kids who might not have enough to go to college because their parent(s) were hurt /killed in a relatively thankless job that makes us all safer.

And no, I don't have the stickers/license plates. They don't come in motorcycle size. ;)

249   astrid   2007 Apr 20, 3:27am  

SFBB,

In that case, you might want to look into veterans and veterans' families right now. They would certainly fit your bill.

250   astrid   2007 Apr 20, 3:29am  

(Though I would argue the safety part...but that's a leadership issue. American soldiers deserve better from this country)

251   DinOR   2007 Apr 20, 3:34am  

astrid,

Oh no argument there! Why do you think we have so many Rose City officers on "disability"! Had Damon been a State Trooper or PDX cop he would've been well cared for. He actually just lost an election and his desk job so he was just another county deputy when injured.

252   Peter P   2007 Apr 20, 3:46am  

SQT, welcome back. Can you write a thread with a sci-fi twist? :)

253   DinOR   2007 Apr 20, 4:06am  

LILLL,

As far as Patrick.net's experts can figure the average flipper isn't aware of what a computer IS (let alone Zillow) as evidenced by their behavior.

254   Peter P   2007 Apr 20, 4:08am  

There is no way I will give money to the homeless on the street. And I will never donate out of sympathy or compassion.

Charities should be highly focused on a cause. To me, it is all about reason and nothing about emotion.

It is much better to help education and medical research.

255   DinOR   2007 Apr 20, 4:09am  

CB,

Ohhhh! Just like those "I Support Law Enforcement" bumper stickers at fund drives! (I'll take TWO!)

256   DinOR   2007 Apr 20, 4:12am  

"There is no way I will give money to the homeless on the street"

Unless they're honest. I saw a kid in downtown Portland (all 6 blocks of it) with a sign that said:

"I'm ugly, nobody likes me and I need a beer"

A dollar toward your worthy cause Sir!

257   Peter P   2007 Apr 20, 4:13am  

Ohhhh! Just like those “I Support Law Enforcement” bumper stickers at fund drives! (I’ll take TWO!)

Law enforcement is also something I would support. Especially those "keeping teens out of trouble" programs.

258   Peter P   2007 Apr 20, 4:14am  

“I’m ugly, nobody likes me and I need a beer”

Huh?

If he said "I need a bear" maybe I would change my mind. Teddy bears are so cute.

259   cb   2007 Apr 20, 4:14am  

DinOR

11-99 foundation costs like $1800 so I've never seen it on a Jetta, my favorite stickers says "If I say I support law enforcement, will you still give me a ticket".

I thought about marketing a ribbon sticker that says "Support the Chinese ribbon makers" instead of "Support our troops".

260   Peter P   2007 Apr 20, 4:18am  

I thought about marketing a ribbon sticker that says “Support the Chinese ribbon makers” instead of “Support our troops”.

How about a bumper sticker that says "Bumper stickers are for loosers" :)

(I am perfectly fine with bumper stickers and will get some leter.)

261   Peter P   2007 Apr 20, 4:21am  

He even suspected that I had weapon on me.

Washington state allows open carry, right?

262   Peter P   2007 Apr 20, 4:22am  

I guess sometimes I do look intimidating, but probably only to idiots.

I guess sometimes I look like a harmless idiot, so people are quite nice to me.

263   Peter P   2007 Apr 20, 4:25am  

I’ve pretty much given up my dream of becoming a fox/deer hunter.

I may still learn to hunt just for the experience. But my wife will let me hunt only if a can find uses for all the animal parts. That is difficult.

Perhaps I will just play laser-tag with bears.

264   DinOR   2007 Apr 20, 4:26am  

"Bumper stickers are for losers"

One time I was at a stop light and there was this guy with a mid 70's VW Rabbit (spewing noxious diesel exhaust) and he had a bumper sticker for every bleeding heart cause on the planet.

So we're sitting there waiting for the light to change and I said "Hey dude, if you had a job you could afford a car that didn't rely on bumper stickers to hold it together!" (Wife slides further into seat).

265   Malcolm   2007 Apr 20, 4:26am  

Nice post SP. Not preachy, not judgemental, not condescending; a window into how another group might think.

266   Phil   2007 Apr 20, 4:27am  

Seems like a lot of money from Real Estate is moving into Stocks. I guess stocks are prepping for a big fall, wish i had money to short some stocks.

267   Malcolm   2007 Apr 20, 4:27am  

That was regarding donations, a few posters got in there before I finished.

268   cb   2007 Apr 20, 4:27am  

But a 47 year old applying for a Ajax or ROR “senior developer” job stands almost zero chance regardless of how good they are.

Most Forty-something that has senior developer jobs get their jobs through referrals, at least that's the people that I know. I agree with Randy that it would be difficult to just interview and get these jobs, lots of hiring managers favor young single people than those that have families. Funny a lot of younger kids stay late but they also get to work late, and they don't stay late on Fridays.

269   DinOR   2007 Apr 20, 4:29am  

SP,

If the lay-off's at HP's Corvallis plant are any indication I'd have to say no. Another town lousy w/newbie realtors.

270   Peter P   2007 Apr 20, 4:30am  

I believe that is called “sarcasm”, not a chance to get away.

A friend told me that a cop asked his friend, "You were as fast as a plane. Are you a pilot?"

His friend showed him a pilot's license. The cop laughed and let him go.

Otherwise, being honest and respectful gives you the best chance of leaving without a ticket.

271   Malcolm   2007 Apr 20, 4:31am  

I got let go because I told the cop I had just come from Krispey Kreame. He thought it was funny. It was actually true.

272   Malcolm   2007 Apr 20, 4:32am  

He then told me to keep it under 80 to not draw attention to myself.

273   Malcolm   2007 Apr 20, 4:32am  

Gotta love California.

274   Peter P   2007 Apr 20, 4:33am  

I usually drive near or below speed limit.

275   DaBoss   2007 Apr 20, 4:34am  

" I know how to use a TRS80 and took a lot of classes learning how to program in Applesoft Basic, but I don’t include the skills on my resume since I know that they are about as worthless as the ability to use or program Lotus products…"

I would include that somewhere at the begining in your resume ... summary section.

Such as ... "Since my first Apple 2e programming in HS (197x) I have been...."

276   Malcolm   2007 Apr 20, 4:35am  

I would have guessed that. You seem like a mellow dude who would rather not spread himself out on the street.

277   Randy H   2007 Apr 20, 4:35am  

SP

There are others, and many I'm not sure about or wouldn't know about.

You can find lifer techs in all of the telcos and in many vendors in the telecom universe. There are usually a good number in banking in the big banks' IT centers. A lot of those are in SF, Chicago and NYC. Also in defense and security related companies.

The problem with the tech companies is often they're too dynamic, and end up spinning out old techs, and the workers along with them. Even so, there are a lot of older guys at places like Sun and Oracle, and increasingly Microsoft. But many of these guys grew up with those companies so it's not certain how that will all work out. Same thing in computer games; there are tons of 30 something and early 40 something game programmers, but we'll see how many are left after the next business cycle in games since most of these guys got into it after the last major cycle.

As a digression, a have a theory that India will not fare well when their gargantuan crop of techs ages. Their system will need to go through some traumatic liberalisation to rival the US' dynamic "flexible labor market". I rather think as all those workers age they'll demand enormous support and protections.

278   astrid   2007 Apr 20, 4:36am  

"5. Y!"

So your statement would be true for any company whose name starts with a Y...

279   HARM   2007 Apr 20, 4:37am  

For those of you who were as clueless as I was about the whole '11-99" thing:

11-99 Foundation License Plate Frame - Culture of Corruption?

280   Malcolm   2007 Apr 20, 4:40am  

Or the 'I support law enforcement' decals. That's the trailer park version of that 11-99 thing I guess.

281   Malcolm   2007 Apr 20, 4:40am  

A lot of those types of charities are scams BTW.

282   Peter P   2007 Apr 20, 4:41am  

I believe the ticket was voided because I haven’t heard from the court since.

Go clear it up. You do not find out later that you have an outstanding warrant.

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