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Jobs, jobs, jobs


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2007 Apr 18, 5:04pm   38,274 views  444 comments

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It has often been said here that the only thing that will cause a drop in Bay Area housing prices is widespread job-losses.

Perversely, this is actually also used as a spurious justification not to hope for a drop in prices -

"Prices will drop only if jobs disappear, and you would not want to lose your job, would you? So you better not hope for a drop in price."

Proof by denial, as it were. Ignoring the completely asinine logic inherent in that line of argument...

I would like to discuss what you think are the prospects of the job market here.

What industry are you in? What is the outlook for your niche? What are your employers doing? Don't name any employers, just share general information about what the hiring trend is for late 2007 and beyond.

My own expectation is that we will see a slowdown in the second half of 2007. Based on the financing I have seen, I also expect trouble in the web-2.0 startup scene by the end of the year, when some of them will fail to get additional funding and will either be acquired for i.p., or shut down in early '08. And this is even before factoring in macro issues like tech-spending and the larger economic picture.

What do you think?
SP

#housing

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276   Malcolm   2007 Apr 20, 4:35am  

I would have guessed that. You seem like a mellow dude who would rather not spread himself out on the street.

277   Randy H   2007 Apr 20, 4:35am  

SP

There are others, and many I'm not sure about or wouldn't know about.

You can find lifer techs in all of the telcos and in many vendors in the telecom universe. There are usually a good number in banking in the big banks' IT centers. A lot of those are in SF, Chicago and NYC. Also in defense and security related companies.

The problem with the tech companies is often they're too dynamic, and end up spinning out old techs, and the workers along with them. Even so, there are a lot of older guys at places like Sun and Oracle, and increasingly Microsoft. But many of these guys grew up with those companies so it's not certain how that will all work out. Same thing in computer games; there are tons of 30 something and early 40 something game programmers, but we'll see how many are left after the next business cycle in games since most of these guys got into it after the last major cycle.

As a digression, a have a theory that India will not fare well when their gargantuan crop of techs ages. Their system will need to go through some traumatic liberalisation to rival the US' dynamic "flexible labor market". I rather think as all those workers age they'll demand enormous support and protections.

278   astrid   2007 Apr 20, 4:36am  

"5. Y!"

So your statement would be true for any company whose name starts with a Y...

279   HARM   2007 Apr 20, 4:37am  

For those of you who were as clueless as I was about the whole '11-99" thing:

11-99 Foundation License Plate Frame - Culture of Corruption?

280   Malcolm   2007 Apr 20, 4:40am  

Or the 'I support law enforcement' decals. That's the trailer park version of that 11-99 thing I guess.

281   Malcolm   2007 Apr 20, 4:40am  

A lot of those types of charities are scams BTW.

282   Peter P   2007 Apr 20, 4:41am  

I believe the ticket was voided because I haven’t heard from the court since.

Go clear it up. You do not find out later that you have an outstanding warrant.

283   HARM   2007 Apr 20, 4:42am  

And welcome back, SQT!

284   astrid   2007 Apr 20, 4:42am  

Another reason I'm against donating to any kind of public servant related charity is the chance for corruption and abuse of power, real or imagined. If we want to compensate these people for their great job, we should do it via good pay and benefits, not through quasi-bribes.

285   Peter P   2007 Apr 20, 4:45am  

Another reason I’m against donating to any kind of public servant related charity is the chance for corruption and abuse of power, real or imagined.

Ideally, one should have his/her own foundation. This is why it is important to make money first. Foundation administration is not cheap and it takes a larger amount for it to be worthwhile.

286   HARM   2007 Apr 20, 4:51am  

If we want to compensate these people for their great job, we should do it via good pay and benefits, not through quasi-bribes.

Agreed. The idea of paying $1800 to get a 11-99 wallet "badge" and license plate frame basically screams "bribe to avoid tickets for life". If it's really all about the charity, then why all the conveniently conspicuous "road bling" that just happens to be strategically placed right where you, uh.. need it. Wouldn't a "thank you" plaque, subscription to CHP Weekly and donation slip for the IRS do just fine?

287   HeadSet   2007 Apr 20, 4:52am  

DinOr says:

(Wife slides further into seat).

Gee, that sounds like prelude to oral ........

288   cb   2007 Apr 20, 4:52am  

For those of you who were as clueless as I was about the whole ‘11-99″ thing:

I actually wrote an email to the Mercury News, Mr. Roadshow called the 11-99 foundation and they vehemently denied that they let speeders go because of that, it seems simple to me, just don't issue license plate and license holders if that's true.

289   Malcolm   2007 Apr 20, 4:53am  

Wouldn't it take a avoiding quite a few tickets to pay for the $1800? It doesn't seem like a very good value proposition it that's the main motive.

290   HARM   2007 Apr 20, 4:56am  

In my opinion, personal action beats collectivism. If I help Habitat for Humanity, my resources go directly to the person in need, and are not skimmed off by layers of bureacracy. If want to help with “global warming” (pollution and wasting natural resources is a bad idea, global warming hoax aside) I can best do so by driving a fuel efficient car and bicycling or walking when I can. I can help the poor best by being productive and thrifty enough to not be one of them. I can stay in shape to reduce the load on the health care system.

Well said.
FYI: for those interested in seeing how much of a given charity's collected donations goes to bureacracy, fundraising & overhead, you can look them up here: http://www.charitynavigator.org/

291   Malcolm   2007 Apr 20, 4:57am  

You have to admit GC, some of those performances are so bad you would write a check to not see them.

292   HARM   2007 Apr 20, 4:58am  

@Malcolm,

For some people, $1800 represents a month's worth of speeding tickets.

293   cb   2007 Apr 20, 4:59am  

Wouldn’t it take a avoiding quite a few tickets to pay for the $1800? It doesn’t seem like a very good value proposition it that’s the main motive.

I don't think money is the motive, the ones that I know have the license plate frames are the uber rich stock option (include the billionaire CEO). It must have something to do with getting their license suspended if they get too many speeding tickets.

294   Peter P   2007 Apr 20, 5:00am  

For some people, $1800 represents a month’s worth of speeding tickets.

They should have their licenses revoked.

295   Malcolm   2007 Apr 20, 5:01am  

Man, those people should not be on the road. I happened to get two in one year and I received a very nicely worded letter from DMV describing some negligent/wreckless operator concept that applies if you get 4 in one year.

296   Peter P   2007 Apr 20, 5:01am  

And please don’t forget to rank goods from MSFT among the quality ones.

I am so happy with Word 2007. It even has a real-time word count! That feature alone already worths the upgrade.

297   Malcolm   2007 Apr 20, 5:03am  

I would rather work the system for a disabled parking permit. I know a girl from Russia who pulled that one off. Interesting lady, her dad was in the KGB so I guess she was used to privilege.

298   DinOR   2007 Apr 20, 5:04am  

Headset,

Pffft. (I wish)

More like when your wife wishes she could be invisible.

299   marko   2007 Apr 20, 5:12am  

The job market is all about diversity in the B.A. Everything from cutting grass all year long, to making gasoline, to making nuclear weapons. Let us not forget about the BA rather large education industry as well, particularly college. That is why the bay area stays alive even after major industry shut downs such as the dot-com tech bubble. There is always a good reason to live in the BA when it comes to jobs and education. Segue -- my job : Network engineer for a Community College District.

300   Peter P   2007 Apr 20, 5:21am  

GC, I always prefer Microsoft products. The UIs are just so well-designed.

301   HeadSet   2007 Apr 20, 5:41am  

"Therefore, every man should go to get his nails done. "

LOL! And while he is at it, have the barber shave his legs.

302   DaBoss   2007 Apr 20, 6:08am  

GC you said...
"The other reason why I prefer to patronize local shops and services (cafes, etc.) as opposed to large chains is that doing so would spread the money among the general population instead of concentrating it in the hands of CEOs and major investors. "

"W2007 alone is worth upgrading."

I guess Bill Gates is worth the extra 300 clams...
I skip MS altogether and get Open Office. Its reads and writes .doc but only cost around $75 with a full blown OS (Linux)... You can get also OO for Mac for free.

303   lunarpark   2007 Apr 20, 6:11am  

On employment - The Mercury News just linked to this report (PDF):

http://bayareanewsgroup.com/multimedia/mn/biz/jobs_report_042007.pdf

304   Peter P   2007 Apr 20, 6:20am  

I skip MS altogether and get Open Office. Its reads and writes .doc but only cost around $75 with a full blown OS (Linux)… You can get also OO for Mac for free.

But it does not look like a proper Windows application.

305   Randy H   2007 Apr 20, 6:31am  

I like most of MS Office, especially Word and Excel. MS Project kind of sucks. Firefox is still heads and shoulders better than MSIE. My IE gives up and poops at least 3x per week.

Vista 64 (Ultimate) has a ways to go. I had to uninstall it for now. Dual core, 3GHz with 4GB RAM, and dual SLI 7800s -- Vista 64 ran slower than an old 286 running Windows 2.0. Must be all that "virtualization".

306   Peter P   2007 Apr 20, 6:39am  

Randy, what did you run on Vista 64?

307   sfbubblebuyer   2007 Apr 20, 6:53am  

GC,

If you go to inquire about the ticket, make sure to have cash on hand to pay the original ticket, probably x2.

One time I forgot a speeding ticket. I honestly don't remember getting the mailing saying when and where to pay it by, I just had the original ticket the cop gave me (who said the info would be in the mail.) I did, however, recieve a notice that a warrant was issued for my arrest when I failed to pay on time.

I immediately got the money and went down to pay the ticket. I went up to the window, explained what happened, showed them the original ticket and the warrant, and the guy said "Just a minute... I need to look something up." He then opens a drawer, putters around in it... walks over and makes a quick call on the phone... walks back to the drawer and putters around some more.... and lo and behold, a cop walks up, asks me my name, and arrests me.

I get tossed in jail for 3 hours before they get me before a judge. I tell him I got the ticket, totally forgot about it and didn't remember getting the info in the mail, but came down as soon as I was informed about the warrant. He asked if I could pay the fine in full right then, I said I could, and he sent me on my way. The only good part of the day was sitting in court for the 3 people who went before me. If you've ever watched Judge Judy or any of those other shows and wondered how those people could be so damn stupid... well... they've got nothing on people in the regular courts.

308   FormerAptBroker   2007 Apr 20, 6:55am  

GC Says:

> The other reason why I prefer to patronize local shops
> and services (cafes, etc.) as opposed to large chains is
> that doing so would spread the money among the general
> population instead of concentrating it in the hands of CEOs
> and major investors.

It always bothers my liberal friends when I point out that most (and dam near all) small local shops, service providers and cafés skim off cash and don’t pay even close to their fair share in taxes…

309   Peter P   2007 Apr 20, 6:59am  

SFBubbleBuyer, you could also have contacted an attorney and have him take care of the situation for you.

310   Peter P   2007 Apr 20, 7:01am  

It always bothers my liberal friends when I point out that most (and dam near all) small local shops, service providers and cafés skim off cash and don’t pay even close to their fair share in taxes…

I prefer national chains. I do not shop at Walmart because I do not like the ambiance. To a customer, a company that undercuts its employee could theoretically offer better pricing in the short run. The goods are identical anyway.

311   Jimbo   2007 Apr 20, 7:08am  

XP is junk, especially Exchange. My laptop at work routinely locks up for up to a minute at a time while trying to talk to an Exchange server. No modern operating system should do this. I am getting a Mac Book, in fact, because I am so tired of my Windows box freezing up on me like this. And no, I don't install junk applications from the Internet on it, but thank you for asking.

Anyone who wants high availability and reliability stays away from Microsoft products. Why do you think the bulk of the Internet is built on Unix?

312   EBGuy   2007 Apr 20, 7:13am  

I imagine this is the case for many Bay Aryans...
"Drive until you qualify" is a phrase that real-estate agents use to
describe a central tenet of the commuting life: you travel away from
the workplace until you reach an exit where you can afford to buy a
house that meets your standards. The size of the wallet determines
that of the mortgage, and therefore the length of the commute.
Although there are other variables (schools, spouse, status, climate,
race, religion, taxes, taste) and occasional exceptions (inner
cities, Princeton), in this equation you're trading time for space,
miles for square feet. Sometimes contentment figures in, and
sometimes it does not.

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/BATN/message/34668

313   Malcolm   2007 Apr 20, 7:14am  

SFBubble, loved the story. Paying fines sucks, but I am a rare one who actually finds court amusing. You see all kinds of stories that an author couldn't fabricate. Sometimes the state finds itself embarrassed having to prosecute some things. My favorite was the guy fined $100 for stepping on a plant in the Borrego State Park. The judge couldn't keep a straight face.

314   Peter P   2007 Apr 20, 7:17am  

XP is junk, especially Exchange.

XP is fine. Perhaps Exchange is different. I use 4 XP machines and they are all running happily.

I am getting a Mac Book, in fact, because I am so tired of my Windows box freezing up on me like this.

But Mac Book is Intel-based right? I thought many applications (e.g. Office) are still on PPC.

I thought of getting a used but mint Powerbook G4. But for $1100 - $1400 I can get two very nice reconditioned Windows laptops.

315   Peter P   2007 Apr 20, 7:18am  

Thanks for the heads up. It’s scary. I’m going to write a letter of inquiry ASAP.

You may be able to do an online warrant check. Talk to the court house that issued the citation.

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