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Jobs, jobs, jobs


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2007 Apr 18, 5:04pm   38,896 views  444 comments

by SP   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

It has often been said here that the only thing that will cause a drop in Bay Area housing prices is widespread job-losses.

Perversely, this is actually also used as a spurious justification not to hope for a drop in prices -

"Prices will drop only if jobs disappear, and you would not want to lose your job, would you? So you better not hope for a drop in price."

Proof by denial, as it were. Ignoring the completely asinine logic inherent in that line of argument...

I would like to discuss what you think are the prospects of the job market here.

What industry are you in? What is the outlook for your niche? What are your employers doing? Don't name any employers, just share general information about what the hiring trend is for late 2007 and beyond.

My own expectation is that we will see a slowdown in the second half of 2007. Based on the financing I have seen, I also expect trouble in the web-2.0 startup scene by the end of the year, when some of them will fail to get additional funding and will either be acquired for i.p., or shut down in early '08. And this is even before factoring in macro issues like tech-spending and the larger economic picture.

What do you think?
SP

#housing

« First        Comments 439 - 444 of 444        Search these comments

439   astrid   2007 Apr 21, 9:45am  

The Tri-Valley area does feel very SoCal.

440   Peter P   2007 Apr 21, 10:04am  

I like the Marin/Sonoma area. It has a lot of trees. I like the PNW feel.

441   DaBoss   2007 Apr 21, 10:56am  

Have you looked at Sun, Oracle, Yahoo, Amazon or Cisco? When do you think they will get back to 1999 value/

Not going to happen in my life time. It will be more like Netscape After reaching peak a long steady decay.

442   astrid   2007 Apr 21, 2:20pm  

I don't like gum trees though. I like temperate deciduous trees.

443   apostasy   2007 Apr 21, 11:41pm  

@Steveoh
Afterall, the lowering of the cost of living without a drop in salary, is like getting a raise, right?

This caught my attention. What if corporate interests got wind that pushing down housing prices was a quick path to externalizing their payroll cost structure? In other words, when companies announce relocation plans, they explicitly tell cities who compete for the relocation that they are automatically out of the running if the PITI psf/month is more than $1?

When shelter costs eat up 50% or more of gross income, a company that finds comparable talent pools in an area that only needs 20-25% of gross income for shelter can save huge in payroll costs alone.

444   SP   2007 Apr 22, 10:43am  

Thanks everyone, for your contribution to this thread - especially those who posted your thoughts and/or data on the job market.

I expected this thread would bring up new and interesting insights, and was not disappointed at all.

Thanks again, and I will close the thread for comments now.

SP

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