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2007 Apr 18, 5:04pm 38,873 views 444 comments
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@Steveoh
Afterall, the lowering of the cost of living without a drop in salary, is like getting a raise, right?
This caught my attention. What if corporate interests got wind that pushing down housing prices was a quick path to externalizing their payroll cost structure? In other words, when companies announce relocation plans, they explicitly tell cities who compete for the relocation that they are automatically out of the running if the PITI psf/month is more than $1?
When shelter costs eat up 50% or more of gross income, a company that finds comparable talent pools in an area that only needs 20-25% of gross income for shelter can save huge in payroll costs alone.
Thanks everyone, for your contribution to this thread - especially those who posted your thoughts and/or data on the job market.
I expected this thread would bring up new and interesting insights, and was not disappointed at all.
Thanks again, and I will close the thread for comments now.
SP
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It has often been said here that the only thing that will cause a drop in Bay Area housing prices is widespread job-losses.
Perversely, this is actually also used as a spurious justification not to hope for a drop in prices -
Proof by denial, as it were. Ignoring the completely asinine logic inherent in that line of argument...
I would like to discuss what you think are the prospects of the job market here.
What industry are you in? What is the outlook for your niche? What are your employers doing? Don't name any employers, just share general information about what the hiring trend is for late 2007 and beyond.
My own expectation is that we will see a slowdown in the second half of 2007. Based on the financing I have seen, I also expect trouble in the web-2.0 startup scene by the end of the year, when some of them will fail to get additional funding and will either be acquired for i.p., or shut down in early '08. And this is even before factoring in macro issues like tech-spending and the larger economic picture.
What do you think?
SP
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