patrick.net

It has often been said here that the only thing that will cause a drop in Bay Area housing prices is widespread job-losses.

Perversely, this is actually also used as a spurious justification not to hope for a drop in prices -

"Prices will drop only if jobs disappear, and you would not want to lose your job, would you? So you better not hope for a drop in price."

Proof by denial, as it were. Ignoring the completely asinine logic inherent in that line of argument...

I would like to discuss what you think are the prospects of the job market here.

What industry are you in? What is the outlook for your niche? What are your employers doing? Don't name any employers, just share general information about what the hiring trend is for late 2007 and beyond.

My own expectation is that we will see a slowdown in the second half of 2007. Based on the financing I have seen, I also expect trouble in the web-2.0 startup scene by the end of the year, when some of them will fail to get additional funding and will either be acquired for i.p., or shut down in early '08. And this is even before factoring in macro issues like tech-spending and the larger economic picture.

What do you think?
SP

#housing