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Jobs, jobs, jobs


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2007 Apr 18, 5:04pm   37,576 views  444 comments

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It has often been said here that the only thing that will cause a drop in Bay Area housing prices is widespread job-losses.

Perversely, this is actually also used as a spurious justification not to hope for a drop in prices -

"Prices will drop only if jobs disappear, and you would not want to lose your job, would you? So you better not hope for a drop in price."

Proof by denial, as it were. Ignoring the completely asinine logic inherent in that line of argument...

I would like to discuss what you think are the prospects of the job market here.

What industry are you in? What is the outlook for your niche? What are your employers doing? Don't name any employers, just share general information about what the hiring trend is for late 2007 and beyond.

My own expectation is that we will see a slowdown in the second half of 2007. Based on the financing I have seen, I also expect trouble in the web-2.0 startup scene by the end of the year, when some of them will fail to get additional funding and will either be acquired for i.p., or shut down in early '08. And this is even before factoring in macro issues like tech-spending and the larger economic picture.

What do you think?
SP

#housing

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53   sfbubblebuyer   2007 Apr 19, 4:39am  

eburbed said :
I wouldn’t want to wait 2 weeks to go to the ER.

Wimp!

54   HARM   2007 Apr 19, 4:40am  

I work in IT for a healthcare provider and I agree 100% with Shabba. It's almost impossible to attract people from out of state, because there is just no way we can compensate someone for the cost of living differential, meaning housing. Unlike Google or web 2.0 start-ups in Silly Valley, a company like mine has no stock options to use to lure workers. All we can afford to do is pay decent wages and benefits (as Shabba said, not great --just comparable to IT salaries in any other state).

While you can still rent in CA fairly cheaply, most people from other states are accustomed to owning and are *not happy* to settle for becoming renters again --the old cultural pro-ownership bias again. Btw, I use the term "cheaply" in the relative sense. Rents here are only "cheap" compared to purchasing costs, but not "cheap" at all compared to renting in other states (and what you get for the money).

Prognosis for healthcare industry: cloudy. Hiring is a bit looser than it was a couple years ago, when it was very tight. However, healthcare costs are rising much faster than inflation --even 'true' non-hedonically adjusted inflation. At some point something has to give, which probably means more cost-cutting (i.e, layoffs) for the industry.

By the way, I've worked in IT for ten years now for a number of different outfits, and I can tell you that not *every* IT worker is a mouth-breathing idiot or youngster making 2 HaHas/year. I know there were a lot of real-life stories of 20-something dot.com millionaires in the late 90s, and there were a fair amount of mouth-breather types who got into lower-rung jobs they weren't qualified for. That said, I think some of the comments I've seen here grossly exaggerate the magnitude of both trends. The 'house-cleaning' that's gone on in the IT industry in recent years is good thing, I agree --cleans out the dead wood and leaves a core of good, qualified people. But to say that the entire IT industry here is/was populated by Ferrari-driving, supermodel-dating Gen-Y'rs or mouth-breathing former burger-flippers is just ludicrous. Either that, or all the companies I've worked for have been far more conservative than average.

55   Peter P   2007 Apr 19, 4:42am  

There are a vast number of uninsured out there, and the ER is there “primary care doctor.” This takes up time and resources.

Can't hospitals charge a $100 cover-fee for non-critical cases?

56   Randy H   2007 Apr 19, 4:45am  

Peter P

$100 is a rounding error.

57   Peter P   2007 Apr 19, 4:46am  

$100 is a rounding error.

Just to deter ER abuses?

58   e   2007 Apr 19, 4:49am  

Two tech salaries combined (200k+) should enable a young family to get a reasonable townhouse with a comfortable mortgage, assuming with 10% - 20% down-payment.

That's sort of impossible - if everyone makes $200k, by definition the bar would have to be higher.

59   e   2007 Apr 19, 4:52am  

Where I trained (Boston), there are literally 5 great, large hospitals with large ERs, and we regularly went “on divert” every few days. The issue is more complicated.

Thanks for the clarification. I thought this was BA specific - guess not.

There was recently someone on NPR who talked about how our health care system is the next major catastrophe - and that if we fixed it, we'd be a lot more ready for the next terrorism attack as well as a bonus.

Too bad we spent it on hospitals in Iraq.

As for Peter P's idea, in NYC, I believe they call it "Wallet Triage" - where ambos from private hospitals SUPPOSEDLY check to see if you have health insurance. If you do, they take you to their hospital. If you don't they take you to a public hospital. Regardless of distance. SUPPOSEDLY.

60   HARM   2007 Apr 19, 4:54am  

There are a vast number of uninsured out there, and the ER is their “primary care doctor.” This takes up time and resources. The closing of ERs is a problem too, and hospitals have no incentive whatsover to expand ERs, as they are money-losing propositions. Peter P’s idea to charge more is untenable, since reimbursement is completely tied to Medicare standards (set by the government), and these guideline charges are being reduced every year.

The situation is a slow-motion disaster (much like the housing mess).

I agree - and this topic really deserves its thread to do it justice. Let's also not forget the elephant in the waiting room: millions of uninsured illegal aliens. Does anyone out there, liberal, conservative or moderate, honestly believe the ER situation out there would be as bad as it is today (esp. in major border/gateway states like CA) if the illegal population had not exploded over the last 20 years?

61   skibum   2007 Apr 19, 4:55am  

danville woman and lunarpark,

My take on the doctor hiring issue is this: MDs are perhaps the one profession where job opportunity and salaries are hardly dictated by geography. What I mean is that tech workers, IBankers, lawyers (at large law firms wanting big bucks) have to work at hubs of technology, commerce, and again commerce or government, respectively. Doctors are needed everywhere (obviously), and the compensation doesn't get better in big cities. If anything, it's worse because of supply and demand - more docs want to live in cities, there's a relative oversupply, and rural practices have to offer more to hire docs. Nowhere, except maybe NYC, is this contrast magnified more than in the Bay Area. As a result, it is difficult to hire MDs in the specialties at the low-end of the pay scale - primary care docs, pediatricians and the like. There seem to be plenty of plastic surgeons, orthopedists, dermatologists etc here, on the other hand.

62   skibum   2007 Apr 19, 4:58am  

As for Peter P’s idea, in NYC, I believe they call it “Wallet Triage” - where ambos from private hospitals SUPPOSEDLY check to see if you have health insurance. If you do, they take you to their hospital. If you don’t they take you to a public hospital. Regardless of distance. SUPPOSEDLY.

I think you're thinking of the "wallet biopsy."

63   Peter P   2007 Apr 19, 4:59am  

It is very simple. Those who oppose universal health care need to be comfortable with the reality that we MUST REFUSE CARE to at least some uninsured patients in non-life-threatening cases.

If we do not want to pay up, we cannot afford to be generous. Money does not grow on trees.

64   Peter P   2007 Apr 19, 5:03am  

Though money can be printed by the Federal Reserve. But we all know that newly created liquidity only applies to home and/or home-related (plasma, SVU, etc) purchases.

65   HARM   2007 Apr 19, 5:04am  

Peter P,

In the PRC, denying any care to uninsured documentation-challenged pre-unionized guest workers is racist. If you do not wish to volunteer a goodly portion of your salary to these 'victims', then you must be considered both racist and selfish. Oh, and I completely agree about the trees --trees are for hugging.

--peace out

66   lunarpark   2007 Apr 19, 5:05am  

skibum - I agree.

We have a good number of orthopedic surgeons, but our caseload seems to be down in this area. Orthopedics are important to our business, as they are some of the best paying cases (on the insurance side of things).

67   e   2007 Apr 19, 5:08am  

I think you’re thinking of the “wallet biopsy.”

Maybe that's the Bahston term. :)

Both terms show up on the web - so we're both right. :)

68   Peter P   2007 Apr 19, 5:09am  

In the PRC, denying any care to uninsured documentation-challenged pre-unionized guest workers is racist.

Did you mean DPRK (Democratic People's Republic of Kalifornistan)?

If you do not wish to volunteer a goodly portion of your salary to these ‘victims’, then you must be considered both racist and selfish.

I disagree. It is considered fine for someone not to volunteer money so long as someone else is taxed for the same cause.

69   HARM   2007 Apr 19, 5:11am  

Peter P,

Thanks for the correction --DPRK it is!
Did I really need to use the [saracsm on /off] tags, or was the tone obvious enough?

70   Peter P   2007 Apr 19, 5:12am  

HARM, when sarcasm is the reality, tags are no longer needed.

71   DaBoss   2007 Apr 19, 5:13am  

"Two tech salaries combined (200k+) should enable a young family to get a reasonable townhouse with a comfortable mortgage, assuming with 10% - 20% down-payment."

You wont find that many women making that kind of cash. Second, marriage leads to kids (1 or 2, and as many as 3).
And then they become stay at home moms.
I seen way too much of this.

72   DaBoss   2007 Apr 19, 5:15am  

I know of a Web 2.0 company

Does anyone have any insight into KNOWNOW !!

73   Peter P   2007 Apr 19, 5:17am  

You wont find that many women making that kind of cash.

Many wives earn more than their respective husbands. At least several people on this blog can attest to that.

74   skibum   2007 Apr 19, 5:19am  

Did you mean DPRK (Democratic People’s Republic of Kalifornistan)?

VELLLY NICE!

75   e   2007 Apr 19, 5:23am  

Does anyone out there, liberal, conservative or moderate, honestly believe the ER situation out there would be as bad as it is today (esp. in major border/gateway states like CA) if the illegal population had not exploded over the last 20 years?

Wouldn't that be easy to figure out? We just need to find a state that has few illegal immigrants and see what their ER situation is like.

Although I guess North Dakota/Montana aren't really urbanized either. Hm. Does Boston have a high illegal immigrant population?

76   e   2007 Apr 19, 5:29am  

Besides Google and Yahoo, can anyone name tech companies that treat their employees well?

It depends on what you mean by well.

Well as in comp?
Well as in free stuff?
Well as in cool culture?

You can't always have all of them.

FWIW, I've heard very very mixed stories from Apple. Real highs. Real lows.

77   e   2007 Apr 19, 5:30am  

If anything, it’s worse because of supply and demand - more docs want to live in cities, there’s a relative oversupply, and rural practices have to offer more to hire docs.

I hear that in a lot of rural areas, they depend on H1B visas to have doctors. Because American citizen doctors won't work there because the pay is too low and it suxors.

Classic. :)

78   skibum   2007 Apr 19, 5:34am  

Does Boston have a high illegal immigrant population?

Why, of course! They are generally Brazilian, Dominican, or Haitian, or Irish. (It's Boston, after all!)

79   skibum   2007 Apr 19, 5:37am  

I hear that in a lot of rural areas, they depend on H1B visas to have doctors. Because American citizen doctors won’t work there because the pay is too low and it suxors.

Again, it's a bit more complicated. The "traditional" path of the FMG (foreign medical grad) is the J1 visa, which requires time spent in an "underserved" area of the US (usually rural). There are more and more FMGs who are applying for and getting H1B visas, which have no such requirement. Maybe that's changing with all the news about the shortage of H1Bs.

The pay is generally better in these rural locations, although there is variation.

80   surfer-x   2007 Apr 19, 5:53am  

The company I work for makes things that go boom and things that track things that go boom. Business is good.

81   skibum   2007 Apr 19, 6:03am  

Hey, There are, I mean were, plenty of tech companies that treated employees REAALLY well. How about all those dot.bombs with their foosball tables, lounges stuffed to the gills with food, video game rooms, riding to meetings down the hall in scooters, and all that?

I suppose you could say that the result of treating employees well in that way is going belly up. Now back to the salt mines all of you!

82   Peter P   2007 Apr 19, 6:22am  

Do people really work 50-60 hours a week in tech? I would understand if such workers are on commission. But code monkeys? What is the point?

83   DaBoss   2007 Apr 19, 6:29am  

Do people really work 50-60 hours a week in tech?

LOL! since the Late 70s/early 80s to today the real SV
heros are burning the midnight oil day and night and weekends.

You should see back in the 80s when we were a 24/7 nonstop shop.
LOL, I think we invented the term 24/7. Now those were the days!

Glamor boys need not apply! Jeans and T-Shirt are mandetory.

84   Peter P   2007 Apr 19, 6:31am  

One tip, if the hiring manager is a minority and more than half the team members belong to the same ethnicity, it is unlikely to be a good place to work if you are not one of them.

85   HARM   2007 Apr 19, 6:31am  

I agree that the job market is hopping right now. Not a week goes by without at least a couple of unsolicited inquiries. However, as PAR said, very few if any of these seem like great jobs - or particularly stable ones.

Unlike RandyH, I am actually not very optimistic about the prospects for rank and file employees at some of the new breed of start-ups. There seem to be very few that are truly game-changing innovations that could prosper on their own.

I think this makes an important distinction. We are seeing a fairly sharp bifurcation of jobs in CA, which reflects the steady bifurcation of the overall economy. If you are a well funded entrepreneur, loaded with VC money and all your contacts from Ivy League MBA/grad school, your prospects are almost unlimited. If you are a rank-n-file code-monkey like most, unless you are an expert in a very high-demand field, you can still find work but it doesn't pay that well compared to the cost of living here.

86   Peter P   2007 Apr 19, 6:34am  

Most tech workers are given unreasonable goals that cannot be accomplished in a 40 hour work week.

I give myself unreasonable goals too. That does not mean that I must achieve all of them.

You work as many hours as necessary to finish those tasks, even if those hours aren’t very productive.

Or you work what you feel right. Let the project fail once or twice. They will be conditioned into being more reasonable. Remember, your manager is a human too. Think in his shoes. Now, tell me what he is afraid of. :twisted:

87   Allah   2007 Apr 19, 6:35am  

I'm really starting to question the validity of domania's data. Look at this!

sold:
Feb 00 $2,028,000
Mar 04 $415,000
Apr 06 $23,400

I can wait to the what it gets sold for next :lol:

88   DaBoss   2007 Apr 19, 6:43am  

PaloAltoRenter (PAR) Says:
April 19th, 2007 at 11:04 am

"I saw a post recently by Don Dodge at Microsoft stating that an average of $40b per year has been pumped into startups over the last six years with only $18b per year finding an exit."

Its been about 3-5B per year based on PWC money tree data.
But many now are being acquired due to expensive IPO/Public process.

"My company is a B2B, and companies have to keep spending or we’re sunk."

Congrads, I was in B2B back in 1996-2003. 2001 was the peak in my opinion when the "4 Trillion B2B market" never happened. I am very happy and have done really well. They are still out there but the glory days are long gone. Your best bet now is Software as Services. SalesForce has done well. I expect some great results from NetSuites IPO.

89   DaBoss   2007 Apr 19, 6:50am  

Johnny5 Says:

"Besides Google and Yahoo, can anyone name tech companies that treat their employees well? "

Anyplace where the CEO/CFO have been around for decades and know their stuff cold! You got to look at Executive Bios. If is a CEO job hooper stay clear. Someone from the early Valley days and is around 50 yrs old helps alot. If they are former Military men, even better.

I been in Yahoo and they have boat loads of problems! Stay clear... the incompetence is massive. The CFO is not even an Accountant. We often wondered if who will go Postal at the HQ one day?

90   DaBoss   2007 Apr 19, 6:52am  

"Most tech workers are given unreasonable goals that cannot be accomplished in a 40 hour work week"

I call that incompetence in management. When you been in a "Sweet Spot" you know the difference.

91   Peter P   2007 Apr 19, 6:53am  

Private medium/large-sized companies tend to be good. It is amazing what the stock market has done to misalign executive interests and long-term shareholder interests.

92   Peter P   2007 Apr 19, 6:57am  

I personally avoid craigslist for the most part. The problem is that far too many of the companies that post there are on the small side with poor benefits, lousy pay, unpaid OT, and no real stability.

Not necessarily. It is a known fact the CL is a hot spot for geeks (and trolls). Many good engineering-oriented companies would post there.

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