patrick.net

Randy, Could you please take my last comment out of moderation? Thanks.

HARM says: Overborrowing is almost the most rational behavior under the circumstances.

HARM, my friend, we're going to permanently disagree about that statement. I don't care how "free" the money gets, only a total idiot uses credit to buy depreciating luxury assets in any amount which approaches a meaningful percentage of their net worth.

The only real exception is people like Randy H, who used cheap credit to buy an Audi so he could capitalize on a better rate of return (i.e. he recognized an opportunity cost and used credit to sidestep it). The vast majority of people are completely innumerate, so it isn't a "strategy" for them.

Malcom: Stupid boomers. :o

Big Brother,

How many assumptions, exaggerations, and, frankly, talking-out-of-your-a$$ statements can one person make? Apparently many, as you have shown in your post.

I can’t comment on IBanking/finance, but I can say from personal first-hand knowledge for both doctors and lawyers. Your numbers are very skewed upwards. Doctors *can* make in the range of $300k plus, but that is a exceedingly small minority, limited to subspecialists who perform procedures or high-end practices, especially in areas of doctor oversupply like the Bay Area, which on top of that is dominated by modestly-paying Kaiser. Lawyers start out at $150K or so out of law school *only* at top-tier law firms. There is a fixed, almost herd-driven pay increase scale at these firms that NEVER reaches $300k. One makes that much at partnership. And as you either know and refuse to admit, or are ignorant, only a miniscule fraction of lawyers even at these top-tier firms make partner. Most get off the rat race and work in house, for smaller lower-paying firms, or do something different alltogether.

Bottom line (to use a TOS technique): You are FOS.

(reposted from a comment in moderation, altered to avoid moderation)

There has to be a point when people are accountable for their own actions. To me this phenomenon of blaming the lender for lending you too much is very new. Up until this point in time, the advocates for the poor were always saying how unfair it was that credit was tight.

They are the cause of all of society's ills.

My friend’s wife is finishing residency in August. She has 3 job offers ranging in between 150 - 190K in Nevada. She chose one that has 7 days continuous work of 12 hours each day and then 7 days off and the base pay in 180k. She is 31 and she is in internal medicine.

Hi_there,
Unlike what Big Brother says, your friend's story is in line with reality. I must add that Las Vegas pays much higher for doctors than the Bay Area, as there are fewer doctors wanting to live there and a resultant undersupply.

Kidding of course.

My question is in a falling house market what would most likely happen to the price of oil?

Two things:

1. If a falling house market triggers a recession, oil consumption will go down, bring oil price along.

2. I understand that Canada has tar sands, which is viable only when oil is above a certain price. If oil price drops below that level, the felt effects may be amplified.

I am just guessing. Correct me if I am wrong.

Wasn’t there some realtwhore posting here a few months ago who used to make the argument that 400K (or some other such ridiculous figure) was the norm for the city (SF)? I recall SFWoman got into a running argument with that troll.

SP,

Good pickup. Perhaps Big Brother is Marina Prime/Face Reality/Confused Renter.

Up until this point in time, the advocates for the poor were always saying how unfair it was that credit was tight.

The advocates for the poor (which usually ain't poor themselves) will complain as long as the poor remains poor.

SP says: Wasn’t there some realtwhore posting here a few months ago who used to make the argument that 400K (or some other such ridiculous figure) was the norm for the city (SF)? I recall SFWoman got into a running argument with that troll.

No way, dude! I claim credit for spotting BigBrother as ConfusedRenter like ten threads ago. I think I either asked about the weekly poker game with the boys, or made a run-on joke post about the Prime areas in the Marina, etc.

Why does it take everyone else so long to spot this clown? It's actually kind of a fun game. He outs himself on purpose, you know. It was obvious from the first reference to prices going up and the "herd mentality". If you had to wait until references to the young investment bankers and dual MBA households, you were far too slow on the draw.

[blows smoke off pistol]

Now off to take a walk. I hope everyone is enjoying this nice sunny day!

I would follow that thinking Peter. I would also add that even though there is a short term effect on pricing with busts in housing or larger economic slowdowns, we are on the cusp of some really great breakthroughs which are going to change how we get energy. The world is going to stand on its head if we can get our culture off of oil.

Brand, where are you at? I'm in San Diego and the weather is absolutely perfect. Not a cloud in the sky.

Malcom,

the breakthrough is much further away than you think. However, if oil price soars to $200, that will certainly bring us much closer to the breakthrough.

No way, dude! I claim credit for spotting BigBrother as ConfusedRenter like ten threads ago.

Brand,

Sorry if I unduly gave SP the credit. You've gotta be less obscure with the references to make it more obvious for those of us not paying close attention and/or slow-witted!

Malcom says: To me this phenomenon of blaming the lender for lending you too much is very new.

No it isn't. In the last decades we have become a complete victim society. I can burn myself with coffee and sue McDonalds. In the 1950's you would have been laughed out of court.

wade, are you in alberta, specifically edmonton, by any chance? i've read there's a huge housing boom there because of all the oil money flowing in there.

OO, it is already starting. The Prius is now the 9th best selling car on the road. In just a few years the extra battery will make 80% of the driving gasoline free for these cars. We are this close to getting biodiesel pumps at certain stations. The US carmakers seem to have finally woken up, and are being pressed by the market instead of being dragged kicking and screaming by the government to stop tinkering around, and really put some new concepts into production. I really believe this time is for real. Our Prius is the coolest freaking car I've ever seen.

@Brand,

Notice I said "almost".
I'm fine with letting individual stupid people suffer the consequences of their actions. The problem with letting (or actively subsidizing) huge numbers of them do stupid things en masse is that OTHER PEOPLE (namely responsible borrowers, savers and taxpayers) get "punished" too.

Fed drops short rates to 1%, making it virtually impossible to loan money at a loss. Congress passes the "24-month" Flipper Enrichment Act. Mr. Greedbag McBankster originates a few $Trillion in neg-am/option-arm loans, providing huge back-end commissions to crooked mortgage brokers, who in turn loan them out to anyone with a pulse. Mr. GM then bundles the loans up as "safe" MBS/CMOs and sells the risk "downstream" to suck --er, "investors".

End results:

1. I get punished, first, by being shut out of the housing market unless I'm willing to take out my own NINJA (I'm not).
2. I get punished again, by being forced to bailout these assclown lenders and FBs, since I'm the only one left with any money but no political clout.

Brand, agreed on the victim thing, I'm specifically talking about blaming the lender for too much of a loan. What is scary is both parties in DC are finding common ground here. This is not the issue I wanted to see bipartisanship on.

Also, someone told me that above $70, many innovative ways of extracting oil will become viable (tar sands is much cheaper to process than $70).

Remember, oil is in abundance. Only cheap oil is in short supply.

That's how this progressed HARM. Some actually IMPORTANT people lost enough money that now we 'need' to bailout the subprimers.

There has to be a point when people are accountable for their own actions. To me this phenomenon of blaming the lender for lending you too much is very new.

It's not about "blaming" the lenders. It's about NOT BAILING THEM OUT when they went into this 6-year credit orgy with eyes wide open, and couldn't care less about the consequences.

Peter, as with electricity, if we knew then what we know now cars, and houses would be powered totally differently.

What a great thread-

Here are mine:

"It's a lifestyle, you can borrow home equity to take vacation trips to Europe, buy a new car, remodel or whatever you like to do.."

"The high end is fairly well insulated from any downturn"

My favorite, although not from a realtor, but rather the seller, posted on a refrigerator while on a showing-

"I need money badly!"

Malcolm, the market is sticky. However, technology will move much faster if we stop trying to protect "victims" from changes.

I agree HARM, my pet peeve is that these guys are being called victims in the press. Someone whose house washes away in Katrina is a victim. Someone who becomes an FB through perfectly forseable circumstances is a loser, not a victim.

I'm not convinced that BigBrother is ConfusedRenter is MarinaPrime. They're all related, but BigBrother may be the most entertaining one yet.

Anyone here suspects that BigBrother is a product of 1984?

Paul, you gotta give credit for the honesty on the last one.

Peter P,

I believe I read that the tar sands number is in the high 30's to $40 per barrell. This is probably a moving target depending on how much the USD declines against the Canadian.

Recharging electrically is a better deal. We are so close.

Malcom,

When I saw that on the refrigerator I turned to the sellers agent and said "this probalby doesn't help their cause!?!"

Paul

the market is sticky

And so are tar sands. :-)

(I don't mind gas prices shooting up, but let me take my Alaska trip first)

Yeah, I wouldn't think so.

I hate the victim mentality.

In Nature, there are only winners and losers, the survived and the extinct; there are no victims.

In human societies, we do enforce law. This puts us above other biological beings on earth. If someone loses because another person has committed a crime, this is understandable.

Calling any loser a victim will not improve humanity. It will incentivize people to become losers. It is a crime against Nature.

And so are tar sands. :-)

Mud pies too. :)

I believe I read that the tar sands number is in the high 30’s to $40 per barrell. This is probably a moving target depending on how much the USD declines against the Canadian.

Yep. That is what I heard.