patrick.net

Hysterical posts as always! I guess the sellers NEED the 435k just so they can walk (net of comm. of course). Is an “extra” 5k going to make you or break you? That’s a serious question? This is what we’ve lowered ourselves to? C’mon, bum me a cigarette man!

Never is appraised value mentioned nor the fact that the “extra” 5k will cost you 20k over the life of the loan. Those buyers, they’re such pussies aren’t they?

DinOR,

There are mostly sheeple on that site. I study the psychology of sheeple; they are a very interesting crossbreed, that is why I decided to write the sheeple's guide. I figure maybe I can steer some of them into the right direction.

Even if there was an appraisal, it is meaningless. Seems these sellers are trying to squeeze some more blood out of the buyer, but I bet the buyers agent is getting a cut of that anyway. The agent claims with regards to the seller, "this is what he NEEDS to net after paying off everything so he cant budge." This guy is either selling to pocket the money or he is selling to buy another house (McMansion?). If he's selling to pocket the money, then he doesn't "need to" get that extra $5k; if he is selling to buy another house, unless the house is $10M and he needs it ALL for a down payment, he can add that $5k to his new mortgage. When real estate is moving from strong hands to weak hands, it's usually the weak hands that "need" the extra $$. Of course this guy could be a distressed owner that has ATM'ed his house to death; which in that case he shouldn't be playing with an offer that could potetially be his highest offer and even though he'd be shy $5k, the sting could be much worse!

I don't believe that it is the seller that is asking for the extra $5k; I think the agent is just working with the sellers agent to get that extra $5k, otherwise the agents would agree to take the $5k out of the overall commission. For the buyers agent to even suggest that he "needs" to have that is silly!

That article does however show how a realtor "needs to" get a sale. :)

Is there a service of some sort that numerically impaired folk can hire to look over a mortgage doc before it is signed?

Maybe this will be a growth industry after the fallout.

But then, maybe it is not a case of ignorance, but of wanting it now if the payments are in reach. Easy Credit Store mentality.

"Even if there was an appraisal, it is meaningless"

Yes it certainly would be. It would only come back whatever the sellers wanted it to be anyway. Now that you mention it, appraise-whores are probably out of a job regardless. They sold what little "integrity" they might have had back no later than 2003. After that it was so out of control there was no saving their situation.

As far as the seller's "needs" well all I can say is how does it feel to "need"? Clown doesn't realize that after 2 years that will have been THE biggest mistake of his life.

I am actually surprised at the magnitude of the drop in existing home sales. Shouldn't the number of transactions start stabilizing now ? Do they include short sales etc or only sold by a Realtor ?

Eventually the transaction number would settle down to a range. (But prices will keep going down.) We all know what the spinmeisters would do, once that transaction number stabilization happens. But those poor souls are not getting that chance.

I read the Mortgage Broker link above:

http://www.brokeruniverse.com/grapevine/thread/?thread=390760

I don't understand the second reply - why does a 50/30 have to be an ARM? Does it just define the amortization scheme, not the interest rates?

Eventually the transaction number would settle down to a range.

We all know that it cannot drop below zero.

I think sales will stabilize after more price-cuttings. Otherwise, the Mexican standoff will continue. The spinmeisters will soon realize that buyers are really their best friends.

David, The King Of Liars, said today that bad weather was partly responsible for the drop in sales. That's accurate. Last month, every time I stepped outside to buy a house or two, them damn clouds just killed my desire to be rich. I really hate it when that happens.

I think sales will stabilize after more price-cuttings. Otherwise, the Mexican standoff will continue. The spinmeisters will soon realize that buyers are really their best friends.

The stabilization you allude to may only be transient. One more ratchet on the sticky downward phase of the market. We haven't seen the full effect of the subprime mess, and the Alt-A resets won't happen full-force for a while. The overall economy seems to be at a tipping point, too. More and more indicators looking bad, while the dow continues up. Sounds similar to the period prior to previous recessions.

David, The King Of Liars, said today that bad weather was partly responsible for the drop in sales. That’s accurate. Last month, every time I stepped outside to buy a house or two, them damn clouds just killed my desire to be rich. I really hate it when that happens.

Well to be fair, he was referring to national numbers. The East Coast really was trampled in Feb and March. Who can forget the Valentine's Day JetBlue Fiasco at JFK. Or the freak storm exactly 1 month later that swept from the midwest to the east coast.

More and more indicators looking bad, while the dow continues up. Sounds similar to the period prior to previous recessions.

Maybe. But this time many companies reported good earnings. The strong global economy and weak dollar are working in favor for many US companies. (It's not all positive I know, but weak dollar also has SOME advantages.)

Learned it the hard way. All my puts are worthless now. I am still short on homebuilders though.

Let me try to take a positive spin on all of this.

We know that this whole property boom was funded by credit, and mostly credit from foreign money. Compared to stock bubble, a property bubble, as long as the money is not spent on flipping the SAME OLD house, the property bubble is better for all of us in the longer run. Why so?

I always feel happy when I see out-of-state investors take on credit to invest in BA's infrastructure, roads, office buildings, new houses, as long as it is NEW and incremental on top of what we already have. Because when the credit bubble bursts, the person who poured in the money take a hit, but his money stays. You won't tear down the building, he will just have to sell the building at a loss which means the next owner can rent out the building for a cheaper cost to lure more businesses.

The same thing applies for the entire US. If we are in a building boom now mostly on foreign credit (which we may pay back in cheaper USD in the future), then whatever that credit funded will get to STAY here. I don't mind if someone takes on a huge credit to tear down a shack and build a brand new McMansion (even though not to my taste) down the street, because after all, he bears the risk but I get to enjoy a newer neighborhood. Going forward, if we have plenty of brand new McMansions with no occupants, that means our kids will have a great quality of life funded by the FBs.

However, using foreign credit to buy EXISTING homes does nothing good for us, none at all. It doesn't fund new infrastructure. If somehow we can change the tax law to steer hot cold lukewarm money into funding NEW projects instead of flipping existing homes, a property bubble is really not a bad thing in the longer run.

Who can forget the Valentine’s Day JetBlue Fiasco at JFK. Or the freak storm exactly 1 month later that swept from the midwest to the east coast.

The Valentine's Day storm may have affected March closings (though not by a huge amount), but the latter storm you refer to certainly had NO effect. Existing home stats are recorded at closing, which is usually 1-2 months after the purchase agreement, which is a week or two after the offer, which is days to weeks after the house probably got listed.

I also recall that January weather was unseasonably mild on the East Coast. Out here, there was no rain (and hence, sadly, no snow in the Sierras) in January. In fact, the weather has been remarkably rain-free out West all winter. I don't see how "weather" has had a serious negative impact on home sales.

If weather was really to be blamed, perhaps God was not on their side.

I have to side with Big Brother on one thing, I think our doctors are underpaid.

I have no problem with doctors making $500K median, as long as they do their job and stay clear of influence from the evil drug companies. I think our society is not rewarding doctors enough, compared to other professions like "high finance". A lot of those "high finance" paper pushers are liberal arts major and don't even have a clue with advanced maths.

Maybe. But this time many companies reported good earnings.

Stuck,

Sorry about your recent investment "issues" of late. I do find it funny how there are many earnings reports that have beaten "the street," while the numbers for corporate spending are decidedly down. My understanding is that if the economy is so rosy, these profits and earnings should be plowed back into the company to invest in their infrastructure (R+D, development, expansion, updating equipment, etc). It's as if US corporations either know something we don't (time to tighten belts) that the earnings numbers have hidden, or they are just plowing the money into executive compensation!

I have to side with Big Brother on one thing, I think our doctors are underpaid.

OO,

Hey, I've got no problem with that idea! Can I give you an address to send checks to?

;)

OO,

In ways I can get onboard with where you're coming from but for the most part I see the HB as one of THE biggest wastes of resources in human history. We've got so many unoccupied (and seriously under-utilized) homes in this country it ain't funny. Sad thing is they'll go from McMansions to McCrackhouses before most of our kids get them.

astrid worked out a really neat hypo where in cases it may make more sense to bulldoze these communites than to continue to provide service. In which case everyone loses.

OO Says:
I have to side with Big Brother on one thing, I think our doctors are underpaid. I have no problem with doctors making $500K median, as long as they do their job and stay clear of influence from the evil drug companies.

GPs in Oz make maybe $80K on average, with a small sd. There's more money in specia1isations or locuming. USD$180K would be about AUD$225K (exchange rate) with roughly equivalent purchasing power. I would most definitely have done medicine for $225K pa under those circumstances. However, salaries for engineers and GPs here are roughly equal.

Friends of mine who are GPs don't actually see interesting cases very often at all -- it's mainly coughs and colds and sore holes and so on, and even social work and counselling half the time, to the point of helping people fill out forms. because of the amount of time spent tending to the worried well and not really doing anything very complex, they seem to be rewarded commensurately -- it's the surgeons and other specia1ists like ob/gyn who take serious life-threatening risks and get a bigger paycheck to go with it.

As for the influence from big pharma, hmm. I don't know if free pensets and champagne functions are enough to swing it, apart from dodgy studies which all but falsify results to boost main effects and suppress side effects to get drugs registered. My GP friends barely tolerate the salespeople and just agree with everything they say to get rid of them asap, tho...

StuckInBa,

I've read in multiple places that existing home sales include foreclosures. How bad are things when the number drops like that even while foreclosures are rising big time! One source was not too sure that foreclosures are included. The other sounded confident. Does anyone here have confirmation one way or the other. If it does include foreclosures we should back that segment out and see just how lousy things really are at this point!

So... is there a resource for getting C.A.R. standard contracts so that we can write our own offers?

I'm tempted to go around to open houses and drop 60% of asking offers on any place I like. I'd need the contracts, and to consult a RE lawyer to make sure I can write a clean offer with inspection contingencies,etc. But once I had the template, I could fill in the address, date, and price.

I often consider myself as capable of exuding feminine charm and seduction. Hence many a police officer let me go after a speed violation. And most men are drawn to me, sometimes too much to my own liking.

I use Precept MC Lady golf balls sometimes. What does it say about me?

I also hit better with women's golf clubs.

skibum

Sorry about your recent investment “issues” of late. I do find it funny how there are many earnings reports that have beaten “the street,” while the numbers for corporate spending are decidedly down.

That's OK. I have far more money on the long side than on the short side. So overall I am very happy with the strong performance of stocks. It went up too much too fast, so I played for a bit of a pause. But it just kept going up. Betting against a trend is always risky. I knew what I was getting into. But I am still a victim ! I need a bailout ;-)

But the thing I learned here is, a crashing housing market does not mean the bull run is over. I think the exporters and multi-nationals like CAT or PG or PEP can actually do well. There are more forces at play here than just the housing industry. The debate is which force is stronger. We will see.

Robin Hood,

You're right about the medical travel abroad. A friend of the family just got back from getting his heart tinkered with in Bangkok. Now the ticker is doing well. And for about 1/3 what he would have paid to get it done in the states, even if it were approved in the states. (Still in Clin Trials)

I agree about the "outsourcing" of medical services. I was VERY surprised when a few months ago my coworker's relative went to India to get a major surgery done. That person was very happy with the treatment, and the follow up was done there as well.

Now it is possible to outsource almost everything. Some days I go home surprised to have not been outsourced, yet.

My favorite quote from homeowners who's trying to show off their houses' appreciation is:

"I can't afford my own house."

I just can't stand it when they say it...

“I can’t afford my own house.”

Translation: I would have been priced-out had I continued renting. Poor you.

Solution: Let's hope that credit standard stays loose so you can become one of us with a toxic loan.

Again, doctors margines are also thin due to insurance costs/staffing/equipment costs and building costs.

yeah, they only make $180K+ a year after costs, including malpractice insurance...

yeah, they only make $180K+ a year after costs, including malpractice insurance…

There needs to be a limit on punitive damages in malpractice lawsuits. The medical community should not be turned into a lottery of misfortune.

There needs to be a limit on punitive damages in malpractice lawsuits. The medical community should not be turned into a lottery of misfortune.

who knows. that's what the insurance is for. nice of you to be a spokesperson for the insurance companies tho, and they're not even paying you!

who knows. that’s what the insurance is for. nice of you to be a spokesperson for the insurance companies tho, and they’re not even paying you!

Insurance costs money. With lower punitive damage amounts the premium will go down. This translates to lower health care costs.

I remember that kind of talk back in the day CB when every Tom, Dick and Harry in Silicon Valley was a millionaire (on paper). "Gosh, I need a wealth manager now. And I'm only 24!" Then pfftt...

Of course, that could never happen in the housing market. “Research indicates that home prices will not go any lower. ” It says so right here:
http://tinyurl.com/39349g

Pay no attention to the cited research. And ignore the fact that it was written in December of '06.

Anyone else catch KRON's RE feature this morning? They interviewed an agent selling affordable efficiencies in the tenderloin for just under $400k. Wow. 300 sq. ft. AND a bevy of crack whores and vagrants right at your doorsteps. What a bargain.

Peter P,

Tone it down, just a little bit.

I also seriously challenge the story of going to Bangkok hospital for pampering, because an acquaintance of mine is a major investor in one of the outifts targeting tourists. He has not seen one single US patient, per our last conversation about 8 months ago.

The whole premise is targeting patients from HK, Taiwan and China because these places have public medicare is either completely swamped or lacking, and the private medical insurance is even too expensive for the "mass effluent". It also targets Canada and European countries with soci-alist medical system that puts you on a long waiting list. But if you are covered by medicare, or have a decent PPO insurance here in the US, there will be no monetary incentive to go to Thailand for the service.

I won't trust India or Thailand for anything other than very routine operation, but again for these routine stuff, I can get it all covered in the US so why should I pay entirely out of pocket in Asia?

CB, when owners we say we can't afford our own house it is not a put down. It affirms the bubblehead view that prices have become disjoined from the fundamentals.

CB, when owners say we can't afford our own house it is not a put down. It affirms the bubblehead view that prices have become disjoined from the fundamentals.

My sister went down to Mexico to get laser eye surgery about 10 years ago. It included a stay at the resort next door, where she was surrounded by many other Americans. I suppose laser surgery is routine enough to be 'safe' even in Mexico.

I agree. Let's cut through the poop. Like the poop about how America's medical/surgical procedures are the best and safest in the world?

Wow. I had no idea that I would ruffle so many feathers.

The hospital in India was "Apollo Hospital" in Chennai. I think is also a big chain with hospitals in many cities in India. The coworker and his relative are both US citizens. Anglo-saxon. White. I have no idea where the relative works. But the operation was considered "non-essential" by the medical insurance. I have no clue if the Dr was "American trained".

Trust it or leave it. I will not give more details. I cannot post such details about someone else in a public forum.

Well... let's see... the family friend I'm talking about is named Buck, lives in Green Valley, AZ with his two toy poodles. (Both Chocolate.) My dad flew with him to Bangkok because he wasn't medically allowed to travel alone. My dad stayed with Buck at the hotel pre and post hospital stay, and went over to the hospital with him for most of the treatment, stayed there about a month with him, and travelled back to AZ with him after he was released for travel.

Everything, including hotel and airfair, cost less that it would have to get it done in the U.S. assuming he had to out-of-pocket it, which he did. And apparently the procedure worked fairly well as his U.S. doctor (who told him where to go in Thailand to get it done) is happy with the results.