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Spring Broke 2007!


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2007 Apr 24, 6:40pm   20,578 views  190 comments

by HARM   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

Typical specuvestor sobering up after the party

So far, looks like SP wins the "best successor to Robert Cote's 'Silent Spring, 2006' award! (Well, technnically he has to share some of the credit with Nathaniel Welch, but his applying the term to the housing market is original.)

Aside from that story about sales taking their worst plunge in 18 years, does anyone have any local observations from their own neighborhoods? How are things holding up in your neck of the woods? Has the fear and panic started to sink in a little, or are most sellers still drinking The Amerikan Dreamâ„¢-flavored Kool-Aid?

HARM

#housing

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177   LowlySmartRenter   2007 Apr 26, 3:36am  

"for the first time in history the median home sales price in the United States is likely to decline." Is that true? Hard to believe it is the first time *ever*

The homes closest to me are priced from about 900k to 2.4m. Nothing has sold in the last 3 months, according to ZipRealty.

I think the property that sums up what is happening out here in San Remote is this one:

Price Increased: 12/14/06 -- $744,900 to $775,000
Price Reduced: 01/08/07 -- $775,000 to $739,900
Price Reduced: 04/09/07 -- $765,000 to $749,000

I'm getting queasy on this rollercoaster....

178   SFWoman   2007 Apr 26, 3:40am  

skibum,

I don't think the fixing-up-with-sailors was in the lease, but my friend swears that was part of the agreement. She's bummed because the last time she rented an apartment the market was extremely overheated, and now it seems to be cooling for rentals, although neither she nor I had seen anything in the papers about a cooling rental market here.

She does legal stuff for TICs and she said they are still very hot in SF because they are priced a lot lower than condos and now you can get separate loans on them.

FAB,

I spent part of spring break on the Kona Coast (very easy vacation with kids, expensive food) and a realtor there, who said he was the island's top producer, said the market is starting to tank and he thinks it's in for a major correction. Interestingly, I hadn't heard much about the earthquake there this past winter, but there was a fair amount of damage because of it.

179   Peter P   2007 Apr 26, 3:48am  

Ooh, SFWoman is back! Was the expensive food at least good?

180   Claire   2007 Apr 26, 5:03am  

Anyone know what the Danville area is like/doing?

181   danville woman   2007 Apr 26, 5:27am  

Claire

Hard to tell. It looks as if asking prices in Alamo have gone up this Spring. I'm tracking a few houses there and they are not selling. I went to a few Open Houses on Sunday and things were quiet.

I checked the Sold homes in the local paper in San Ramon and there seems to have been lots of sales in the past month in the lower price points, however, the prices at the Bridges seem a little softer.

182   Claire   2007 Apr 26, 6:34am  

Danville woman,

Thanks for the reply - what's the rental market like too?

Also, do you know if forclosures are on the rise there?

183   astrid   2007 Apr 26, 7:08am  

SFWoman,

Welcome back! We really missed you (not in a creepy or pathetic way though).

184   Jimbo   2007 Apr 26, 8:01am  

The newsletter is free. If you want to redistribute, you have to pay.

But i reiterate, there is no way in hell you got a 5.25 fixed loan on a refi in the last 2 years, period.

Perhaps you did not see where I said that I refi-ed in March of 2004. That was more than two years ago. I paid 3/4 of a point to do the refi. It lowered our monthly payment $350 and has already paid for itself. I think it took about two years to pay back the refi cost. We plan on keeping the place as rental property when we move up, so it made sense to do the refi, even if it would have taken longer.

My wife helps finance real estate construction. I know you in the industry have all these gradations of what being in "real estate" means, but to the rest of us, it is all real estate. She is certainly familiar with what the going rate for borrowing money is.

185   Jimbo   2007 Apr 26, 8:10am  

Also, azrob, a few months back FAB was telling us that he got a 10 year fixed 4 1/4% mortgage. So while mine was good, it is certainly not the best one out there.

http://patrick.net/wp/?p=399

186   danville woman   2007 Apr 26, 1:12pm  

Claire

We pay $1995/month for a 3+ bedroom townhouse in Danville. The house has an outdated kitchen but a nice little yard. We started renting this place in June 2005. Our landlord hasn't raised our rent but I have heard that rents are going up.
Lots of nice places to rent in San Ramon, I hear. School system is good and the places there are newer. Having a dog presented some difficulty renting. If you have no pets it will be easier for you.
Check out the local newspaper - San Ramon Valley Times - Hunting for a place is very time consuming and frustrating. Hang in there !

187   surfer-x   2007 Apr 26, 6:15pm  

CalHFA

188   Claire   2007 Apr 27, 1:03am  

Thanks Danville woman:-)

189   azrob   2007 Apr 29, 1:40pm  

you quote a loan you got 3 years ago on here for comparison purposes jimbo? wow! i bought a new car for $2000 too! I am much better at getting deal than you! oh yeah that was in 1964...

190   Jimbo   2007 Apr 30, 4:07pm  

Uh, we had a big long discussion about various places we had gotten loans and where we had gotten good and bad financing from. Remember this from HelloKitty?

The best loans I ever got were from Wells Fargo and Countrywide going DIRECT -no broker-. I made them match rates by faxing each other the Good Faith Estimate from the other guy.

They hated me for it but put up with me. Wells Fargo beat countrywide and my best loan ever was 4.375 APR amortizing 3/1 ARM (reset in 3 years).

Yet somehow this deal did not raise your ire. You are an odd bird.

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