patrick.net

I'm not here to challenge Nathaniel Welch's journalistic integrity but IMHO this picture is totally staged.

1. Beer can resting on subject's left forearm should have open end facing away (not towards) individual.

2. Subject still has 7-11 purchased necklace on his person.

3. Absence of drool on self.

4. Neither hand is in crotch area.

5. Sand directly beneath subject's said crotch area is dry.

IMHO

ocrenter,

He was only pursuing the American Dream (TM)!

It'll be hard for the IRS (or any other agency) to enforce squat as the S.O.P (standard operational procedure) has been to high tail it back to Romania, Uganda or wherever to live the life with free money!

What I find shocking is just how late in the game this "cute" little stunt was pulled.

Houses on the Virginia Peninsula in the $250k - $350k price range seem to be holding. This may be due to extensive military in the area with their quarters allowances.

Homes priced over $550k are very slow selling, with steep price cuts on new construction.

HARM,
From the last thread - you win the award for "most uses of Troll aliases in one post." I salute you - most impressive.

Homes in the areas I track in San Francisco are holding steady: in Noe Valley it is still $1.2M for a 3/2 with a garage and in fact sales volume has picked up this spring. In the $1-1.5M range west of Twin Peaks, in places like Ingleside Terrace and Forrest Hill, prices are steady as well.

In the nicer neighborhoods of Berkeley and Oakland, prices are starting to come down, especially in Oakland. Elmwood and Claremont homes in Berkeley are down probably 10% and Rockridge homes are down 20% from their peaks. I am not sure what sales volume in those areas look like, but I am not really seeing a bunch more homes on the market.

OT, but IIRC some Google employees frequent this site.

So I'll just point out here that Blogger, for whatever reason, just doesn't work from the PC I use (a Public Access machine in a club, with a LOT of functionality switched off, but it shouldn't affect simple text).

I just tried to create an account, so I could post some replies on another blog. All went fine, I thought. Create account; set up dummy blog (which I was thinking I might actually try using later to post about the local RE market); sign out; cross to the thread where I want to post and type in a reply.

"Username and password do not match". WTF? Go back to the dummy blog, yes it's there. Try to sign in; same error message.

When this happened with my old account last year, I thought I had simply misremembered my password and wrote it off to experience.

Not this time; we are literally talking 60 seconds between typing a password in (twice) when creating the account, and having that password rejected.

Where the PNW is concerned I was a little surprised that we fared so well in the CME Housing Futures? WE'RE a "bright spot" for residential RE?

Wow. What's amazing is that no matter where I go, no matter who I talk to virtually NO ONE is talking about RE! The only thing I *haven't seen in our market (Portland metro) has been "cash back" deals. Other than that from a marketing perspective it's all fair game. One builder in Happy Valley was offering 1 year no payments on "high end" homes.

We've continued to see an influx of equity locusts although distant markets like Ashland, Medford and Bend are seeing price decreses already. The wild card in all of this is if NAR-style data can be challenged in the rest of the nation (you can basically toss it out the window here). OR's are the original DIY crowd and you've got to imagine our FSBO/CL listings dwarf just about every other mkt. on a percentage basis.

Bidding wars are gone and flipping is petering out. It's weird b/c over the last 5 years if we're not talking about RE, we're not talking. Right now, nobody is talking.

OMG you guys, I love this role reversal. This isn't a realtor quote but the last sentence to me marks a turning point.

"As a potential 'victim' in the fall of 2005 I was amazed that the mortgage brokers and banks were trying to sell me insane loans in hope of making a sale," writes Ed Dergosits of Mill Valley. "Now they want relief funds. I say let the banks and the homeowners (like they really own the home) take the loss. They took the gamble. Why should taxpayers bail them out? I am still a second-class 'renter' but I do not have to ask for public assistance to pay for my rent."

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2007/04/24/BUGC8PE0FC1.DTL&ref=patrick.net Article reference

There is a small tract going in across the street here. They finished about 5 houses, and a few more are in process. Then a bunch have not even been started. Days go by when I don't see any activity. I think they are running out of money because the progress is painfully slow. With some experience in this, I would guess that they are stretching their construction loan to cover normal daily costs, but doing the bare minimum to demonstrate to their lenders that someone is swinging a hammer. I'm telling you I think I could finish some of those houses by myself faster than the couple of guys that come out every few days and walk around the properties with their little hard hats.

BTW, the sign in front of that tract still says, coming in 2006.....new luxury homes!

RoweMoore,

If your true intent was to BUY then I suppose that is something you should have done 18 months ago?

The fact that you're aware such a "silly blog" even exists tends to indicate that you question prices as well.

New homes sales are out... the east bounced back a little from their horrendous Feb weather, but it's still weak weak weak, and below forecasts.

Foreclosures are up again...

Talk about a sticky situation! I'm revising my 'projected buy time' from 2008 to 2009. Shh... don't tell my wife!

Malcom,

Sounds like LV last year. My retired friend went shooting south of town nearly everyday and as he passed south on I-15 there were HUGE condo complexes that never seemed to get beyond the framing stage. There was like 2 guys on the entire job site. (Must be very productive workers?)

I actually agree with RoweMoore, there is a huge demand to buy, unquestionably. I believe if you could still fabricate a scheme where you could buy a million dollar home for 2500/mo you would have a line of people. I also believe that the drop will not be a straight line because of the price skimming phenomenon where different people have a different value in mind and will call the bottom differently.

HOWEVER, with that said, it all becomes irrelevant because the final straw is the tightening of credit which returns everyone back to 2002 whether they like it or not.

Where's LV? Is that towards Riverside?

Or is it OR? I keep forgetting you are up there.

Malcom,

Las Vegas.

Construction lenders are going to have to really watch out for these guys. Next thing you know your borrower runs out of money because his management salary for running the construction site drains the budget. As soon as someone realizes that they won't make a profit selling the houses they do this.

We've been reading about some Vegas whoppers. Did Trump's ex back out of that project she was going to do?

Malcom,

Absolutely true! Sure, they'd rather have outrageous fortunes but "until the market gets turned around" this will do. It's the ugly side of construction lending. Builders live off of borrowed money so they're comfortable with this arrangement.

Trump's ex,

Michael Jordan,

George Clooney

to name a few. It sure was good to see Steve "The Shill" Bottfeld finally admit that just "maybe" something could be wrong in Vegas!

They need hotel rooms, not condos.

On some of the deals I invested in, the broker would maintain 'fund control' and literally would write the checks to the subs as the project proceeded.

That is a nightmare scenario for a lender because not only did you lend on a project that is not worth as much as you thought, to run out of money and not have it finished, and to then end up with the property is a disaster.

My scavenger instinct is really watching this project closely as I believe there will be an opportunity there. The thing that sucks is it is a typical bubble construction where a strip of homes literally have their front door 10 feet from a busy street with the parking in back. There are of course no amenities, but the houses are cute. They look like doll houses, almost like the SF painted ladies.

"My scavenger instinct"

This is what's left at the end of the cycle. Timing your entry point to where everyone else has exhausted their resources and you get to pose with the slain dragon! (Is this my good side?) :)