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"Real Financial Heroes" needed in CA!


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2007 May 10, 9:30am   25,141 views  246 comments

by HARM   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

Housing woes to continue, expert says
Economist says downturn could weaken state's financial future
Contra Costa Times 05/10/2007

“The malaise in California home building will hound the state for a while longer, a top state government economist told an East Bay gathering Wednesday. Even worse, California is particularly vulnerable to ripple effects because the state depends on housing and home building for a greater share of its economic activity than other regions, said Howard Roth, chief economist with the state’s Department of Finance.”

“‘I see no signs that the housing downturn will abate any time soon,’ he said during an interview after his speech.”

“...Roth warned that the weakness could be even more severe based on the first-quarter home building activity. ‘To keep us out of recession, we need for consumers to continue to spend through the rest of 2007,’ Roth said.”

Have YOU been doing your part for Clownifornia's economy? How many bidding wars have you "won" lately? How many plasmas, boats, RVs or spousal "enhancements" have you bought with the house ATM this year? None?!? Why do you hate Amerika...?

Do we really need to make renting and saving a criminal offense? Enough already --stop your whining and get out and start spending, dammit!!

Uncle HARM

#housing

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43   EBGuy   2007 May 11, 6:41am  

But just the fact that he’s considering selling and moving to a bigger unit in a nicer area means he should at least be given “side-kick status”.

And, quite possibly, he has inspired a 100% ARM holder in a subdivision where similar houses are now selling for $100k less to "upgrade" and then drop the less desirable home (mortgage).
Heck I am even giving consideration to a spec-u-vestment for the two year capital gains exemption if they are still writing 100% option ARMs. Well, maybe I'll wait to see if the Mortgage Cancellation Tax Relief Act of 2007 becomes law -- no reason to ruin one's credit if it doesn't work out. :-)

44   DinOR   2007 May 11, 7:40am  

What are the 2 things you need to run a scam in Florida?

1. Phone

2. Air conditioner

45   Carl in Berkeley   2007 May 11, 8:43am  

Daniel Y. of San Francisco has fugging balls of fugging steel to even ask that fugging question.

I, too, would like to move to a 'nicer place' in a 'nicer neighborhood' and have someone pay me $30K to do so. I would also like a three-way with Jessicas Biel and Alba.

46   Allah   2007 May 11, 8:57am  

Licensed real estate agent complaining about the high prices

Housing prices are outrageous!!! Especially for what they look like inside!!!!!

I really can't get over the prices some people are daring to ask for their homes in Nassau county!!!! I say Nassau because that is where I am concentrating.

There's horrid wallpaper in every room, bathrooms and kitchens need to be completely redone and the houses look like "schlockhouses".

And they're asking $550-599K!!!!!!!!

This makes me want to either stay in my house which looks 10x better or list it for $700k!!!!!!

I just can't get over how DH and I take so much pride in our home and just because we want to move to a bigger house we will either have to fork over $700K or start from scratch again on fixing it up.

OK rant over.

47   Peter P   2007 May 11, 9:12am  

For the rest of you: this is the tentative date for SoCAL Blog Party III.

Blog Party III? For marketing purpose perhaps you should call it Blog Party 777.

48   Claire   2007 May 11, 9:21am  

Here's a new one in a rental property -
"(covered through your low $40 monthly HOA dues)" - not only are they asking for a lot of rent, but they want you to pay the HOA fees as well!

49   Peter P   2007 May 11, 9:24am  

Uncle HARM, some candy please?

50   HARM   2007 May 11, 9:54am  

@Peter P,

;-) Nice catch, and all 7's --very lucky. Funny, I didn't notice that.

51   Glen   2007 May 11, 10:18am  

Maybe it is one of those cases where they are only prosecuting the crime they can prove (even though many more crimes were probably committed).

52   Serpentor   2007 May 11, 1:48pm  

sawa sushi is excellent, I think my favorite is still Ebisu in SF. Reasonable price but great quality.

WW: I can't tell if you are a Troll or just ignorant. Tracking prices in a small area hardly makes you an expert.

53   Serpentor   2007 May 11, 1:49pm  

sawa sushi is excellent, I think my favorite is still Ebisu in SF. Reasonable price but great quality.

WW: I can’t tell if you are a Troll or just ignorant. Tracking prices in a small area for one year hardly makes you an expert.

54   Ed S   2007 May 11, 1:51pm  

WealthyWoman,

Appreciate your insight and concern. Could you provide the following:

1) List of houses that you've been trying to purchase but failed
2) Original list price
3) Selling price
4) MLS number
5) Any other date that you deem pertinent

Thanks

55   Ed S   2007 May 11, 1:52pm  

- date
+ data

56   Brand165   2007 May 11, 2:01pm  

Dammit, you guys made Big Brother undergo a gender change? For shame. Although, well... it is San Fran, after all.

Wealthy Woman, I keep bidding on foreclosures, but they're going for 125%+ of the asking price with multiple bids. How's the sunny walk playing poker with the Confused guys of Marina?

57   Brand165   2007 May 11, 2:03pm  

Carl Says: I would also like a three-way with Jessicas Biel and Alba.

I would take just Biel. No need to be greedy when the quality is that high.

58   e   2007 May 11, 2:05pm  

Where do you live? Can you send me a e-mail? My wife does not allow me to discuss our favorite Japanese restaurant on the blog anymore.

Why's that?

59   Malcolm   2007 May 11, 3:14pm  

I hope to be able to make it. It will be fun to meet all of you in person.

PeterP we're going to be up your way tomorrow. If you and you wife are free for dinner you can send an email to Malcolm.Shaw@Cox.net.

60   Malcolm   2007 May 11, 3:19pm  

no period after the .net

61   Malcolm   2007 May 11, 3:27pm  

WealthyWoman:

If I may ask, why is it that you are in such a hurry to buy?

62   ozajh   2007 May 11, 3:34pm  

serpentor,

Reasons why "WealthyWoman" is a troll and not just ignorant.

1. The statement "the market is in a frenzy" is just a straight lie, when you consider every statistical report from the likes of Dataquick etc. is saying the exact opposite. Heck, even CAR is reporting a slow market.
2. "You guys should seriously wake up from denial." Right, let's denigrate the regulars on our very first post. Without. as BAN points out above, providing a single piece of hard evidence for why they are wrong.

(OK, I will admit it's just possible she's an incredibly crass MOTU who is talking about a vanishingly small top-end submarket with her condescending "areas ... that people want to live". Still not someone I'm interested in conversing with.)

63   Malcolm   2007 May 11, 3:45pm  

It is funny to have someone say people here are in denial, especailly when the majority of us aren't even in the Bay area. I too am suspicious but I try to give the person the benefit of the doubt until I know for sure. It sure has been a long time since I've seen anyone dispute the bubble bursting.

64   azrob   2007 May 11, 3:48pm  

i have spent several months in mainland china, and met hundreds of people... never heard Tang or poon back to a "nin gui shing?" ever...

65   e   2007 May 11, 4:25pm  

i have spent several months in mainland china, and met hundreds of people… never heard Tang or poon back to a “nin gui shing?” ever…

Did you miss the part where it was pointed out that the last name Poon is mostly found in Hong Kong?

66   SP   2007 May 11, 5:15pm  

never heard Tang or Poon back to a “nin gui shing?” ever…

I have seen both of those last names on the cubicles around campus, but my mind never made a connection between them until this thread.

SP

67   SP   2007 May 11, 5:21pm  

A nice anecdote from dinner with some friends tonight - one of them is selling his house on the market. His agent from Boldwell-Canker has been pressuring him to 'expect to make concessions' (i.e. prepare to offer non-cash incentives) if he wants to sell at all, and to lower his desired asking price if he wants to sell quickly. This is in the heart of the 'Frickin Fortress'.

It looks like if you are trying to sell the damn house, the realtwhores sing you a different tune.

SP

68   Ozman   2007 May 11, 5:38pm  

All this spend spend spend and serfdom is terribly sad.
I have colleagues here in the East Bay who have not been to the beach for 6 years. All they do is work endless hours and shop for bling bling.
They think my siesta lifestyle with no debt and no mortgage is crazy.
This is absolutely crazy. People in Europe "work to live", but I guess it is "live to work" here in California.
I wonder if Californians would work so hard if it weren't for the huge debt load over their heads ??

One thing I have noticed here is that it is difficult to differentiate between the rich from the stretched middleclass. Everyone has bling bling here because of the easy credit. In Europe it is easy to differentiate between the rich and the middleclass.

Sorry uncle Ben, no debt for me.

69   diwakarc   2007 May 11, 6:59pm  

Housing Bubble vs Great Depression.

Enjoy!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pLjo7-J1qho

70   astrid   2007 May 11, 10:59pm  

azrob,

My dentist's last name is Poon and both Tang and Poon (Peng in Mandarin) are very common names. Quite a few board members are from China/Taiwan/Hong Kong. A couple month in China as a nonspeaker does not compare.

71   astrid   2007 May 11, 11:08pm  

PS-in my almost 20 years in the United States, I've never met a Seward or Williamson, but I do not assume they are Norwegian nicknames if I should ever encounter them.

72   Michael Holliday   2007 May 11, 11:34pm  

astrid Says:

PS-in my almost 20 years in the United States, I’ve never met a Seward or Williamson, but I do not assume they are Norwegian nicknames if I should ever encounter them.
_____

You should come to my work. I'll introduce you to T. Williamson.

73   FormerAptBroker   2007 May 12, 4:12am  

WealthyWoman Says:

> Do you guys really think prices are falling in San
> Francisco, and other areas in the Bay Area that
> people want to live?

We don’t “think” they are falling, we “know” they are falling based on the majority of sale prices (sure every now and then a Google guy or VC partner will buy in Atherton or Presidio Heights at a super high price, but “almost all” homes and condos in “the places people want to live” are selling for less than they did last year)…

> I’ve been trying to buy a house for a year now,
> and the market is in a frenzy.

If you are a “wealthy woman” why are you just trying to buy a house now (Most on this blog have posted many times why they don’t own a home)?

> The houses i have tracked and wanted to buy are
> up about 7-10% since this time last year, and about
> 3-4% this year already.

Have the homes been on the market for over a year with the sellers raising the asking price or have you just been talking to Realtors (who say that 10% appreciation is the bare minimum you can expect)?

How about even one example of a home or condo that you feel is up 7-10% and let us know how you determined the increase in value (did someone actually sell a year later, did you ask the owner, did you look on Zillow)?

74   azrob   2007 May 12, 4:33am  

I never said they never existed in china at all... my god the people on this blog have nothing to do but look for ways to snip at anyone who writes anything...must be something with internal bitterness...

In a nation with 1 billion people, you can probably find every mathematical combination of roman letters used as pinyin version of someones last name...

However, they are remarkably common thai nicknames, and I am willing to be a non asian, ie "they all look the same to me" meeting a poon or a tang is much more likely to have met a Thai person then a chinese...

and fyi "wo hue shuo idian dian pu tong hua" and "Pom pood pasa thai nidnoy" I don't write pinyin well but ce la vie!

75   B.A.C.A.H.   2007 May 12, 4:59am  

Ozman,

There's a lot more of us livin the siesta lifestyle than you might think.
See, since we're not conspicuously consuming, we are kinda like wallpaper.

All the Beautiful People look right past or right through us. We don't exist.

And we like it that way.

76   dp337   2007 May 12, 5:07am  

WealthyWoman,

The sharks er..Realtors are surrounding you right now. They have a live one. she's ready to buy. raise the price. ghost bidders...they are going to try to drain your $$ dry. I'll throw in some chum for ya.

77   Ozman   2007 May 12, 5:49am  

There’s a lot more of us living the siesta lifestyle than you might think.

That's reassuring. I was beginning to feel like a misfit :)

78   Randy H   2007 May 12, 5:51am  

Hello Everyone,

Do you guys really think prices are falling in San Francisco, and other areas in the Bay Area that people want to live?

I’ve been trying to buy a house for a year now, and the market is in a frenzy. The houses i have tracked and wanted to buy are up about 7-10% since this time last year, and about 3-4% this year already.

You guys should seriously wake up from denial.

WW

I've been tired lately. That much is true. I need more sleep.

Tell you what, WW. I'm getting kinda annoyed waiting for the reversion, and I've got the means to buy a house right now. But I also don't like wasting my money, and I think you are the one in denial.

Seems to me we can make a market here. I'll buy a nice home. Hell, even a very nice home, somewhere like Ross or Larkspur. I'll sell you 100% of my cash position; more if you're willing to take it. You get to keep all the upside when prices keep marching upwards. You also eat the loss if they decline. I'll even agree to not sell the place for 5 years.

Any interest? Not bad return (using your numbers) for doing nothing. Especially if you think there's no risk of a downturn. Just exploit my ignorance and steal my gains. I'm more than happy to give them to you.

79   B.A.C.A.H.   2007 May 12, 6:29am  

Ozman,

You are a misfit, if you want to fit in with the Hip and Cool Beautiful People who dominate the media and culture in the Bay Area.

Just ignore them.

They ignore us. We're beneath their contempt.

Some of them will get in over their heads and quietly leave the Bay Area.

Others of them will manage to keep up appearances during their whole working lives here but will have to leave eventually from exhaustion. Financial exhaustion, physical exhaustion, mental exhaustion, psychic exhaustion, whatever.

Those who leave will be replaced by like-minded conspicuous consumers. It is part of the Gold Rush mentality that lives on here after a century and half.

80   dunnross   2007 May 12, 6:37am  

WW, if prices are going up in the bay area, then why has the Case-Shiller home price index been on the decline every month for the last 12 months. Just, like during the 1989 housing crash, once the Case-Shiller starts to decline, it will decline for years, until it hits the bottom, and then start going up again for years. During this latest housing boom, the Case-Shiller index has been going up for 120 months (with the exception of the tech recession, which should have really started the housing recession in the Bay Area, but AG reinflated the bubble with his low interest rates, and crazy mortgages). Before that, the Case-Shiller has been going down for 100 months in a row.

82   DinOR   2007 May 12, 6:42am  

goldboy,

Don't be silly! Of course Wealthy Woman has a handle on the CME Housing Futures! Like all truly "wealthy women" she has some one that tracks all those mundane things for her. Kind of like her personal assistant, shopper or dog walker.

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