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Something Doesn't Add Up Here


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2007 May 14, 3:25am   20,633 views  207 comments

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John Burns Real Estate Consulting has put out in their monthly newsletter that housing if falling faster than is being reported.

The housing market has softened much more than is being reported. We have been advising our retainer clients for more than one year about misleading national sales information, both with the Existing Home Sales and New Home Sales data. We are now going public with our concerns because we are concerned that policy makers are relying on national data to conclude that the housing market correction has not been severe.

Here is our support:
Closing Data: We purchase and compile actual home closing data for approximately 181 counties across the country, which captures the counties where about 55% of the U.S. population lives and a significant percentage of all of the counties where the large home builders are active. This data shows that sales have fallen 22% if you compare sales over the last 12 months to the prior 12 months. On a straight year over year comparison, the decline is much more.
Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) Data: The MBA Seasonally Adjusted Purchase Application Index, which is a measure of the number of people filling out loan applications to buy a home, is down 18% from its peak in September 2005.1 With presumably more applications being filled out by borrowers who now have to shop around for a loan, how could sales have fallen by less than 18%?
Builder Data: The nation's two largest homebuilders, D.R. Horton and Lennar, are reporting that orders have declined 27% to 37%, year-over-year. 2 3 D.R. Horton and Lennar have dropped prices significantly in many markets to generate sales, while the resale market has not. How could their sales have fallen more than the resale market, even if new home communities tend to be in fringe areas?
Realogy Corporation Data: Realogy, which is the parent company of Century 21, Coldwell Banker, and ERA, participated in roughly 1.9 million brokerage related transactions in 2006 compared to 2.3 million in 2005, representing a year-over-year decline of 18% nationwide.4
2005-2006 NAR State Data: The National Association of Realtors state data does show sharp year-over-year corrections in major states: 28% drop in Florida, 24% drop in California, and a 28% drop in Arizona. Our data, however, shows the sales have probably dropped by 34%, 27% and 38%, respectively. The national numbers include some large states where sales volumes have not corrected substantially, such as in Texas and Ohio, but we believe these markets are not very healthy for other reasons. Interestingly, our calculations were tracking very closely with NAR data through 2005, as illustrated above. We did investigate NAR methodology and have found absolutely no reason to believe that the NAR is intentionally misleading anyone, as some have suggested.
New Home Data: The Census Bureau calculation of new home data does not calculate sales net of cancellations, and cancellations are running much higher than normal right now, which is why the sales numbers overestimate actual sales.

The preponderance of evidence shows that the housing market in vibrant areas where home building is prevalent has corrected much more than some people believe it has.

In summary, we believe that the Fed should know that the housing market correction has been quite steep and is also not showing signs of bottoming out, as evidenced by all of the above information, as well as significant additional research we have conducted. While the Fed has far more to consider than housing, they should know that the housing market could sure use some lower interest rates to help achieve stability soon.

This is my favorite quote "We did investigate NAR methodology and have found absolutely no reason to believe that the NAR is intentionally misleading anyone, as some have suggested. "

Um, yeah.

Overall I love this article though. I think we'll see much more of these types of reports as time goes on. I really think that people don't realize the magnitude of the boom and bust cycle we're in. Most people I talk to are much more pessimistic about housing than they were just a year ago but there is still this feeling that the market will be on an upswing in the near future. Articles like this make that seem unlikely.

Here's the link to the full article

SQT

#housing

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138   EBGuy   2007 May 15, 6:49am  

What did I miss?

Malcolm said the SD market has become unstuck and all hell will soon break loose. Casey evidently can make around $1000/month from Haterz. I think you could fund your kids education from Second Lifers if you try to generate a bit more animosity.

139   FormerAptBroker   2007 May 15, 6:56am  

astrid Says:

> FAB What’s a top 5 grad school?

I should have wrote “Business School” since that is what most of my friends talk about when we say “grad school”. It is amazing how many kids start at GSB, HBS, Wharton, Kellogg, and Sloan with liberal arts undergrad degrees and relatively low math skills…

140   Peter P   2007 May 15, 7:01am  

This time it is different. The H1B quota is now back down at 65000/yr. I believe it was close to 200K/yr a few years earlier.

In fact, I heard that 60%+ of H1B hopefuls who applied *on the first day* for FY2008 was rejected. Will foreign students still want to study/work here?

141   Peter P   2007 May 15, 7:04am  

The person (who shall remain nameless) that wrote that last thread asked that it be removed.

How could you have known that? I wonder. ;)

142   astrid   2007 May 15, 7:14am  

FAB,

Thanks. Though I do somewhat disagree on the substance. I took an investment finance class at Haas one summer and recalled it being relatively easy for this math near-illiterate.

My father has a physics Ph.D and we were talking about math and science last sunday. His view was that the average person does not need to know much math beyond basic geometry, algebra, and understand the basic concept of derivatives and trig. We agreed that the main missing piece from general education is basic understanding for statistics and logic, which is easy for even people of low math skills.

143   DennisN   2007 May 15, 7:44am  

"I should have wrote “Business School” since that is what most of my friends talk about when we say “grad school”. "

I would never even think B School when I hear about grad school. For me it was physics...or math...or finally law.

The only problem in learning about statistics and probability is that it ruins the fun of gambling for the rest of your life....looks too much like homework problems!

144   Peter P   2007 May 15, 7:48am  

His view was that the average person does not need to know much math beyond basic geometry, algebra, and understand the basic concept of derivatives and trig.

If everyone knows how to use the four-function calculator well (square root optional), the market will be more rational.

145   FormerAptBroker   2007 May 15, 7:49am  

DennisN Says:

> The only problem in learning about statistics and
> probability is that it ruins the fun of gambling for
> the rest of your life….looks too much like homework
> problems!

I had a professor that called the lottery a “tax on stupid people that don’t understand statistics”…

146   Peter P   2007 May 15, 7:52am  

I had a professor that called the lottery a “tax on stupid people that don’t understand statistics”…

It is about psychological framing. But I welcome stupidity tax. :)

147   sfbubblebuyer   2007 May 15, 8:11am  

Yah, I got glared at once when somebody said they were going to grad school, I asked what they were studying. When they said to get their MBA, I said "Oh, I thought you meant REAL grad school."

148   Peter P   2007 May 15, 8:24am  

Business school IS a real grad school. There are disputes about whether JDs are real doctors though.

149   Peter P   2007 May 15, 8:25am  

It is a school for graduates.

150   HARM   2007 May 15, 8:38am  

New thread: So, long, David!

151   DennisN   2007 May 15, 8:58am  

"There are disputes about whether JDs are real doctors though. "

Interesting thought. Peter, why don't you let me try operating on you. Then we both will know the truth of the statement.

152   astrid   2007 May 15, 9:56am  

Dr. astrid's medical advice*

For any ailment, take a long and almost unbearably hot shower, then collapse into bed tightly wrapped in a comforter, sleep til much better or much worse.

* Does not constitute real medical advice.

153   astrid   2007 May 15, 9:59am  

GC,

More *medical advice*

Seek professional therapist to discuss your sporadic exhibitionism and unresolved issues about objectifying women.

* Not liable if so called professional therapist turns out to be an analrapist or is otherwise unqualified to provide professional therapeutic advice.

154   Peter P   2007 May 15, 10:05am  

We should replace objectification with objectivism.

155   Ozman   2007 May 15, 10:08am  

We agreed that the main missing piece from general education is basic understanding for statistics and logic, which is easy for even people of low math skills.

Statistics is not easy. Do not underestimate it. Even Einstein had problems accepting the Heisenberg principle. Hence why he later said God does not play dice :)

156   Peter P   2007 May 15, 10:17am  

One cannot adequately understand statistics without multivariate calculus. I once inspired to become a logician, now I am more practical.

157   Ozman   2007 May 15, 10:21am  

I had a professor that called the lottery a “tax on stupid people that don’t understand statistics”

We must have had the same professor.

But then again the stupid FB's must be laughing if the smart people get taxed to bail the stupid FB's.

158   Paul189   2007 May 15, 10:37am  

getting my MBA was the worst mistake of my life

159   HARM   2007 May 15, 10:50am  

Huh?

160   Ozman   2007 May 15, 10:57am  

getting my MBA was the worst mistake of my life

I have always thought Business schools were in the business of making easy money from the privileged few.

161   Ozman   2007 May 15, 11:04am  

My rational goes like this. If I need to borrow $150 K to get a decent MBA, why not use that money to start a real business in the real world. If it succeeds well and good, if not, then you have learned more than you could ever have from an MBA class.

162   Paul189   2007 May 15, 11:08am  

Harm,

I believe it prevented me from finding work in '02/'03 as I was percieved as too expensive. There was also no support from my school (intentially left nameless) while looking for employment. When I took the MBA off my resume I started getting calls and interviews. It could be coincidence but I don't think that's the case.

Also, I've had confirmation by a current coworker of the success via MBA deletion theory.

Paul

163   Ozman   2007 May 15, 11:10am  

GC, maybe HBS woman was frightened of you :)

164   Paul189   2007 May 15, 11:20am  

I think the networking thing is what Ivy league and MBAs are all about. My school probably is not the best for that and I am not a big networker. This is probably why when at a cocktail party in those lean years, I would tell people I couldn't get work and they looked at me like I had a third eyeball in the middle of my forehead!

165   Peter P   2007 May 15, 11:32am  

I thought business school is mostly about networking.

166   Ozman   2007 May 15, 11:51am  

Maybe I'm a little biased.
A decade ago, armed with a graduate degree I was told by my corporate colleagues that I needed an MBA to start a new business. Being a Geek then was not sexy. Anyways, quit my job and started a new business. It went under after 2 years. Started another one shortly after that and it has been the best thing ever. I was probably lucky the 2nd time round.

I think the value of MBA networking might be important to those looking for corporate jobs as senior managers and future CEO's. But for Entrepreneurs starting new business models and products, you need skills and brain power more than a network.

167   thenuttyneutron   2007 May 15, 1:06pm  

In my industry, Nuke Power, a MBA will help you get up through the ranks beyond a shift manager. It will not sub for an ABET engineering degree with a SRO license. You *gasp* actually have to have some skills to make the MBA worth something.

Shift managers are basically the top dog of the plant when the plant manager/VP is away. He is the ultimate guy in chanrge of the plant when it comes to license duties. In the end a MBA is just a little extra thing to tack on a resume to make you stand out against the others. Honestly a BS in engineering with a SRO license is a very good combo to have and is the catch all requirment to advance.

168   astrid   2007 May 15, 1:14pm  

GC,

LOL! How little you understand me. If my boyfriend would truly be happier as a janitor or a farmer or an theoretical mathematician, I would support him -- possibly even financially, if I thought he could be a brilliant scientist.

However, he is quite fond of managing money (he saved almost $150K in six years with a relatively modest salary) and likes good food and we agree he would thrive in a more challenging environment, so investigating financial engineering (so he could make up his mind before enrolling) makes more sense. Furthermore, he's not THAT brilliant or THAT lazy, so why bother waste a lifetime in academia.

169   astrid   2007 May 15, 1:19pm  

GC,

Also, might want to talk about unresolved regret about not taking that pre-IPO Google job...*

But really, I admire your life. You work very little and at a job you somewhat like. You make enough money to live comfortably and spend lavishly on food. You went to the university my father would likely have attended if he wasn't interrupted by the Cultural Revolution. You seem to have enough friends and associates and attention from relatively attractive women. You have a great life!

*not constitute therapeutic advice, blah blah blah.

170   astrid   2007 May 15, 1:26pm  

FAB is an advocate of the top 5 biz school or you're out theory. I have no experience so I can't tell.

Depending on where you work, big law firms are a little more forgiving about law schools.

171   FormerAptBroker   2007 May 15, 1:33pm  

astrid Says:

> FAB is an advocate of the top 5 biz school or you’re
> out theory. I have no experience so I can’t tell.

I've always said to try for a top school (even top 20), but if an English major wants to go in to business I think they can learn something at any business school (even a JC at night paying $5 a unit)...

172   skibum   2007 May 15, 1:59pm  

Here's an interesting tidbit - a potential scam related to the housing bubble has hit the "fortress," including Palo Alto, Portola Valley, and Los Altos:

http://www.mercurynews.com/realestatenews/ci_5898867?nclick_check=1

173   HARM   2007 May 15, 6:07pm  

Harm,

I believe it prevented me from finding work in ‘02/’03 as I was percieved as too expensive. There was also no support from my school (intentially left nameless) while looking for employment. When I took the MBA off my resume I started getting calls and interviews. It could be coincidence but I don’t think that’s the case.

Also, I’ve had confirmation by a current coworker of the success via MBA deletion theory.

Paul,

Interesting. I had almost the exact same experience after I completed my MS in the early 90s. It seems to work against you when you are a fresh-out-of-college neophyte and not a member of the "Club" (you know, the families who tend to join Skull'n'Bones, get their names in the tabloids, etc.). I wasn't getting any callbacks at first, then got the same idea, took it off my resume and started getting called. I left it off for several years, until I started going for more senior positions.

Once you have significant real-world business experience under your belt, I think your MBA will come in handy, but probably not before then.

174   astrid   2007 May 15, 11:11pm  

GC,

I don't think you understand my boyfriend or me very well. That's all I have to say.

175   Peter P   2007 May 16, 2:28am  

lazy people are the most helpful ones in times of crisis.

If you can find a way to motivate smart but lazy people, they are your biggest asset.

176   astrid   2007 May 16, 2:43am  

On somedays, talking to my boyfriend is akin to banging my head against a wall repeatedly. I accumulate a headache and absolutely nothing happens.

177   astrid   2007 May 16, 2:48am  

Peter P,

Smart but lazy people are a pain in the ass to manage. Even if you get them momentarily motivated, they're liable go back to their lazy ways.

The bright side is that they're often too lazy to look for more renumerative work.

I guess stupid but lazy people are even worse. Followed by stupid and hypercontrolling people. Followed by stupid, hypercontrolling, passive-aggressives -- maybe that how my boyfriend sees me (okay, so this might be a bad day for me).

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