patrick.net

I think the interest-rate policy in Japan has more to influence the global economy. I think the inevitable unwinding of carry-trades will eclipse even the Russian debt default in 1998 and the Asian Currency Crisis in 1997.

skibum,

So true. The NPR audio (linked on patrick.net) has DL defending his position that an otherwise perfectly sustainable "RE expansion" was derailed by speculators. Well let me ask you this DL, who WASN'T speculating in RE!?

Now by dramatizing the situation they're expecting to gain favors? Sheesh.

Also great CBS interview w/ the founder of RedFin.

DinOR,

Yes, I heard that interview when it aired on NPR (yes, one of the few Republicans who listen to NPR...) My biggest shock was learning that Learah is pronounced le-ray` (accent on the 2nd syllable), not Lee`ra (accent on the first).

Seriously though, that whole specuvestors screwed up a perfectly good bull market argument is really just a CYA move. Does anyone really think Realtors (TM), including DL had no idea there were speculators running amok? And if they were aware, why didn't they do anything to stop speculation? .... Oh yeah, because it generates commissions!

Nice to have SQT back!

FYI: This is old news to anyone here, but there was an article yesterday that reinforced the informal estimates we've seen about neg-ams & IOs comprising the vast majority of new loans originated during the bubble years. Always nice to get some solid numbers to validate what we already knew:

http://www.insidebayarea.com/business/ci_5887464

In the Bay Area, negative amortization loans soared from 1.7 percent of mortgages taken out in 2002 to 28.3 percent in 2005, according to San Francisco-based LoanPerformance, which keeps tabs on the mortgage industry. During the same period, interest-only loans increased from 12 percent to 43 percent.

San Joaquin County also saw similar growth. Negative amortization loans jumped from just 0.3 percent of loans taken out in 2002 to 21.1 percent in 2005. Interest-only loans went from 2.9 percent of loans taken out in 2002 to 37.5 percent in 2005.

Bay Area: 28.3 + 43 = 71.3% loan toxicity
SJC: 21.1 + 37.5 = 58.6% loan toxicity

And is only up to 2005 --reports from mortgage industry insiders indicate the stats are even worse for 2006. Better call the PPT. They might have to join forces with SuperFund to clean up this mess once the $hit really hits the fan.

"While the Fed has far more to consider than housing, they should know that the housing market could sure use some lower interest rates to help achieve stability soon."

Hasn't the Fed already 'helped' the housing market quite enough? Where were these complainers when the Fed injected this instability in the first place?

All this spin is making me dizzy.

Bless you HARM. That is exactly the data I was looking for. I will post, with props to you on the 'other' Patrick site.

"why didn't they do anything to stop speculation?"

In addition to generating hefty commissions it's utterly fantastic that DL would identify "2004" as the entry point for speculators! Rally?

You could reasonably assert that by 2004 speculation had become RAMPANT and totally beyond control but to say that prior to that you were somehow unaware of it's presence is just.... fantastic.

"join forces with SuperFund to clean up this mess"

And why NOT! (It's all toxic) They could learn a lot from each other.

@LSM, no problem ;-).

When mortgage lender CEOs start talking and acting like angry FBs, you know the end game can't be far off. Check this out:

Michael Perry, chief executive of IndyMac Bancorp, is stubborn when it comes to delinquent loans.

"We are not going to fire-sell when we have the intent and ability and expertise to work through those loans and sell them ourselves," he said.

Wow. Genius NINJA-pimping CEO throws a tantrum because those nasty old hedgies won't pay him what he thinks his radioactive loans are "worth". 'Cuz IndyMac's toxic waste is "special", I guess. It appears that mental accounting and magical thinking knows no socio-economic boundaries.

Forgot to post the link:

Lending's next tsunami?

What?

Huh?

It is getting lewd. Let's talk about sushi.

HARM,

The level of denial going forward is going to be beyond belief. Rest assured Indy has a "mod squad" working 24/7 to give this waste the appearance of performing loans. Can you imagine what the notes on that client data base look like?

Account # FB998FB6DELINQ4FBFB
14, May 2007

Spoke w/ FB after leaving 11 previous ignored messages. Said he will get caught up on his payments once his vintage stratocaster knock-off sells on ebay. Suggested a "grow operation".

O.K THAT'S IT!

Can we get this blocked and posts removed? Please!

Peter, how come you prefer sushi to sashimi?

I don't. But sushi is a more familiar term.

GC,

Huh? Consider a different forum if you want answers to THOSE questions.

I've contacted Patrick, but I cannot delete comments here.

Wow GC, that's quite a story. You win first prize for "farthest thread drift into left field".

During an April 26 conference call with analysts, Perry said the company didn’t sell a single dud loan in the first three months of the year because no one wanted to pay what he thinks they’re worth

It just occurred to me, why would anyone in his right mind want to buy a mortgage that the seller himself refers to as a "dud loan"? Oh, right... Perry only calls them that when speaking to his own crew, not the suck-- er, customers.

From the Letters to the Editor of the Real Estate Section:
Ease off on the articles that lambaste agents as mere peacocks who are overpaid. Realize that our real estate dollars subsidize much of the advertising revenue realized by The Chronicle.

CHRIS HARRIS
Real estate agent

Help me out here, who is subsidizing who?

gc,

It's too bad you occasionally post completely inappropriate comments like these, since otherwise you often have good things to say. I'm no prude, but these are highly offensive in this forum. I'm sure many of us would be happy to hear you regale about your sexual escapades in another setting (ie, a bar).

Do you have bipolar disorder?

@EBGuy,

Oh that Chris! He sure busts me up (knee slap).

Look DUDE.. if you are tired of paying "office desk fees" you either need to go independent or take it up with your broker. NOT MY PROBLEM. That's what tends to happen when there's too much easy money floating around. Fees crop up out of nowhere. As sales volumes and prices revert to the mean you'd be surprised just how quickly those fees shrink or go away altogether!

As far as having to pay for health insurance, you're all alone in the world.

While the Fed has far more to consider than housing, they should know that the housing market could sure use some lower interest rates to help achieve stability soon.

I guess the only thing left is the cover of TIME magazine. How long do you think before we see the charlatans on the cover page claiming interest rates are too high ?
This culture of deception is everywhere. It is frightening. We are doomed.
The Fed has now become the new Enron in disguise :)

I think the Fed has BPD.

Reminds me of an idiot roommate I had years ago. I came back from a trip in July and he tells me "hey, I came home the other day and the heater had kicked on". I said, "wow, that's strange". He said, "yeah, so I shut the windows".

Way to solve a problem...live in denial.

Reminds me of an idiot roommate I had years ago. I came back from a trip in July and he tells me “hey, I came home the other day and the heater had kicked on”. I said, “wow, that’s strange”. He said, “yeah, so I shut the windows”.

I thought someone said, "The coldest winter I ever spent was a summer in San Francisco."

Perhaps your roommate was that someone. Unless you did not live in SF. Then all is moot.

How can you obtain a legitimate economic citizenship? They closed that loophole in Grenada.

How about a private tax treaty in Switzerland?

GC,

I have removed the two subject matter-inappropriate posts above. Consider this a warning.

We are not prudes here, and regulars (myself included) often use a little adult humor or make the odd off-color remark, when it seems germane to the topic. Surfer-X has elevated anti-Boomer profanity to a virtual art form. I don't care for the role of content police; however, discussing the particulars of one's sexual history in crude detail or polling others about the same is clearly not appropriate for this forum. There are plenty of adult blogs out there --more than you can shake a **ck at. ;-)

Peter P,

That would be Mark Twain, though I believe it was actually apocryphal.

Actually, we were living in Santa Clara at the time. It was like 80 degrees outside. Ding bat thought the solution was to conserve energy (can't waste all that good heat) instead of getting to the root of the problem (like, maybe turning off the heater?)

He was also an Eck follower. I never understood it or him.

Actually, we were living in Santa Clara at the time. It was like 80 degrees outside. Ding bat thought the solution was to conserve energy (can’t waste all that good heat) instead of getting to the root of the problem (like, maybe turning off the heater?)

Wow. If it is 80 degrees outside at night our A/C will be on. Heat?

Statistrickery? I like it.

I've got to imagine at this point for a HF mgr. to be able to justify buying any subprime paper it would HAVE to be done at steep discount? If you can't make the case that you're buying them at or below the underlying value (or well below) of the assets I guess you should be prepared to see an exodus of investors.

Could you recommend a good psychologist in the Seattle area?

I don't know any in the Seattle area in particular. Honestly, psychiatrists and psychologists usually don't mingle with other doctors other than neurologists on occasion. Psychologists generally have either a PhD in counseling or a LCSW degree, btw. This is farther out from my area of expertise, but generally one would see a psychiatrist (MD) for diagnosis, medical (drug) therapy, and counseling on a more basic level. A psychologist would be more appropriate for non-pharmacologic therapies (counseling, that kind of thing).

In general, UW and Swedish both are great places for all-around medical care up in your area.

Isn't Fraiser Crane in Seattle???

NMA (not medical advice).

I thought someone said, “The coldest winter I ever spent was a summer in San Francisco.”

Perhaps your roommate was that someone.

That's unlikely, since the quote is from Mark Twain...

I heard that psychiatrists are great traders.

HARM

You're a more patient man than I. I'd have removed him -- actually did remove him -- long ago. I use the term Troll so sparingly I've only applied it to one poster ever here at Patrick.net. And he's earned that distinction repeatedly over the past year.

SQT

Great to see you back. Great thread.

@Randy H,

Well, he's officially on notice, we'll see...

@TR,
Then interest rates are going to explode. Bye bye 6.25, hello 8…

As a long abused saver, I would warmly WELCOME such interest rates with open arms (but not "ARMs").

So what do regular posters think a 'good' rate would be? From a strictly personal level, ridiculously high levels sounds good to me, as my large downpayment becomes even larger as housing prices crash from the high interest rate... but really high rates, say above 10%, is pretty indicitive of serious problems in the economy, right? 8% sounds high, but not high enough to be scary to the general population.

Interest rate is not the main problem. Loose lending is. In short, any financing product that requires the assumption of housing appreciation is a culprit.