patrick.net

Many smart phones have HDMI out and USB connections.

Plug your phone into a big monitor (preferrably capacitive multi touch), and a keyboard, and how is it any different from a "PC"?

Getting a proper smartphone (at present, only the iphone and android devices really count -- blackberry doesn't come close, and symbian certainly doesn't either) has made a big difference in my life. It's my music player, my GPS, my camera, my family photos, plus web access whenever I want...and it makes phone calls, too

My eyes started quitting on me, about the time I bought my iTouch.
I don't think I have over 3 total hours using the thing, since I got the thing for Christmas.
I realize that if my eyes were what they used to be, I'd use it a lot more.
I don't even use my smart phone for all of the things that it can do.
Hand held Gizmos will never replace the PC, much less compete with sales.
Lets see you balance a spreadsheet on these devices, edit photos, build a data base and develop a back end, create Word documents(With full WYSIWYG features like Word).

These hand held devices are a great for insight to the internet, through texting, messaging, briefly using the browser capabilities to win a Bar bet, but it's not 10th of the Prodution device that a PC is. It enhances the (everywhere is my office) experience. But you'd be lost with out a PC.
Especially about the time you needed to augment a 2000 page word document, and print it back out, perform prepress on an image. ect....

I have to agree. They've been predicting this kind of trash since the day laptops emerged. Hey, last time I checked everyone in our office still uses a desktop PC or Mac.

We still use desktops at the office. They work just fine and the only thing they perform is Microsoft Office and terminal emulation.

It's not so much that the PC is going extinct, it's the fact that they are more of a commodity and have limited profit potential going forward. It use to be there was a replacement cylce every 2 to 3 years, now it is more like 4-5 years. Just look at Dell and Apple the last ten years and that tells you all you need to know about the PC.

It's not that the PC is not needed, it just went from 100% to 50%. There are some really cool apps right now like taking a picture of a check to deposit money and many other tools taking productivity to another level.

Doubling up on what SF ace said. I think it's less commodity trend, but more software isn't catching up to the power of the PC. Graphics are going nuts and requirements for Graphics are going through the roof. Each new game requires higher end graphics, but the CPU is almost never taxed. If a game can be played at 60FPS (frames per second) at the highest resolution and highest settings then that is the maximum you need. Think of it this way, if you have car that can go 200mph, but the highway is 65, as long as you can do 65 you're getting the maximum out of the highway.

We need something that will push CPU's and our CPU requirements. We haven't seen a major increase in CPU speeds for the last 8 years. We had 3.8ghz processors back then, and we still have today. We have more cores but our software can't utilize those right now. They're woefully under utilized and that is because programming for multiple cores is difficult.

Before, everyone saw a net gain on getting a new computer. From word document users, to gamers. Now it's almost excursively gamers. I was just talking with a friend today about my old acer ferrari laptop. I've had it for 5 years and used it exclusively until this year when I did an unnecessary upgrade. Otherwise I would still be using it.

rileybryan says

It is true. The mainstream PC as we know it will disappear. It will be replaced by a Monitor and some USB Cables leading straight to the server. The reason for this is because it is much more efficient & stable to do all heavy processing on a central server, while all the users are using a minimalist setup to connect to the server at high speed. Not to mention improved security and control over IT aspects. This is why Microsoft is releasing Azure, their cloud platform. Thats right, Microsoft is building it now, and in 10 years, you’ll be using it daily, wondering how you got by before.

This may be useful for business / office settings, but I'm not convinced. This is how computers used to be set up, a central mainframe and a bunch of dumb terminals connected to it. The problem is when the mainframe is down (or host server) or the connectivity is down, your dead in the water. With stand alone computing, you at least have the option of getting something done when waiting for issues to resolve themselves. I predict the first company that goes completely cloud computing will quickly find out how much connectivity unavailability impacts there bottom line. The first DoS attack that slows the net to a crawl and they will be screaming for there stand alone PC's back.

The same issue applies to Gaming, no connectivity, no gaming or no anything for that matter. Not to mention being at the mercy of a network provider and cloud computing provider could really add up. Want to use your terminal on our servers, to pay games, do your taxes, store photos, that's going to cost you X dollars a month. It will be a real cash cow to companies providing service, they can keep raising there rates, cause once you have a captive audience, they have to suck it up. Just look at the Cable / Satellite providers to see that kind of rate increases you have for your future. Any type of cloud computing solution for home users is going to be more expensive in the long run. There would have to be benefits for people to switch, and given how cheap computers are, I don't think it's wise to surrender your PC for a dumb terminal. the CPU part of the computer is really only a couple hundred dollars, if a cloud service provider is charging you even $10 a month for service, you could buy a computer for less in about 2 years.

I say people like to control there data, handing it off to a 3rd party they are going to lose some control over it and it's just not going to fly.

pkennedy says

We need something that will push CPU’s and our CPU requirements. We haven’t seen a major increase in CPU speeds for the last 8 years. We had 3.8ghz processors back then, and we still have today. We have more cores but our software can’t utilize those right now.

The same can be said for operating systems, why the hell does anyone need to upgrade to Windows 7 when Windows XP has been a nice stable operating system for the some time now. Just because Microsoft says you have to? For 90% of word processing users, there no noticeable improvements between Word 2000 and Word 2010, sure they have a different tool bar and nice flashy features, but most people never use them, so why upgrade?

We are unlikely going to one mainframe type scenario per household/office. It's not cost effective. Some people require cheap computers, some require more expensive. Some require 2 or 3, some can share their computer with others. The problem with a mainframe is that the costs are high, maintenance is high because it's a far more complex machine, and each person connecting to it has to pay a premium. If you've got 1 power user and 3 low end users, sure the mainframe type of machine can easily handle it, but you're basically paying for 4 premium computers, to replace the 4 mixed computers you've got. The hardware is far more expensive, it's more complex and has to meet the standards for the biggest user you've got.

When it comes time to upgrade, you need to upgrade everyone, even if they're happy with their old hardware, the only way to upgrade is to essentially pay to have everyone upgraded. Since it's a shared environment.

My guess is that we'll have more and more connectivity and awareness between our gadgets. Our TV/Camera/Phone/Computer will be the first to get a serious upgrade. They're already pretty well connected, but I think it will go a little deeper. Other appliances collaborating together would be nice, but the turn over on appliances is so slow - 5-15 years, and since we have 0 out there right now, with no set definition of what the network should do/look like, it means we're probably 15 years away from having anything in the home resembling appliance connectivity.

Getting a proper smartphone (at present, only the iphone and android devices really count ...)
Lets not count out the Nokia n900. It's billed as a mobile computer, though, which supports your contention that these are the equivalent of mobile PCs. What it lacks in user friendliness it makes up for in the ability to run open source apps.

I don't think PC will phase out soon because of mobile device. I'd rather play game with my HD monitor and i7 system than with tiny screen that does not have proper controller. Morden PC is faster than old workstation, and PC does not take up workstation at all. Workstation evolved to own path, and I guess that the way thing goes.

Wait... I don't have i7 system and HD monitor.
My PC I am at it typing now is 8 years old and my phone is got bricked. :(

Currently thinking about getting 2 sets of new pc, cuz my wife's is equally old too.
The delema is what to buy. Should I pay couple hundred buck more for i7 or settle down with deneb? All we're doing with PC is nothing fancy, and either will be quite faster to compare with our current PC.