patrick.net

I don’t think China has evil intentions. But it sure will suck up natural resources like a mop.

China's intentions (internationally), although probably not sinister, are tainted by their recent history. They as a nation have a chip on their shoulder going back to colonialism, the Boxer Rebellion and such, through Japanese occupation during WWII and more recently a self-inflicted cultural revolution mess. They are producing, growing, and booming with a fiendish fury that's almost akin to Iago's also-ran desperation - ie, they're definitely out to prove themselves. Whether or not that remains limited to their economy or expands into their military is up for debate.

Please unmoderate my comment. THanks!

Ok, it's clear what we need to do then. We all should petition Red China to hire Greedspan and D.L. for some top bureaucrat job. Then be sure they get offered lavish bribes to look the other way for something guaranteed to kill a few people (or some American pets). That's a "win-win" for both sides ;-) .

It strikes me that some of the current business practices in China must be a libertarian’s dream - very limited government involvement and oversight. Or, as they would say “free of interference from a nanny state”.

Huh? China has very strict regulations. It is just lax on enforcement.

Manufacturers wouldn’t make poisonous toothpaste, cough syrup, baby milk, etc if the marketplace would reject it. See, it self corrects! No need for costly, inefficient, government at all.

It will self-correct eventually. Education and information will speed up the process.

Huh? China has very strict regulations. It is just lax on enforcement.

So remind me how American capitalism is different again?

So remind me how American capitalism is different again?

It has less-strict regulations and it is a little more diligent in enforcement.

I would replace the word "lax" with "selective". As in, China (or to a somewhat lesser extent, the U.S.) is very "selective" in terms of which laws it chooses to enforce, and which individuals it chooses to hold accountable (or make an example of).

This fight over how MBS can be modified illustrates the point really nicely that there are significant risks to being a bond holder. It's impossible to foresee every way the borrower or somebody in the food chain can later try to up the risk of the bond holder. Corporate bonds have the this same issue where somebody comes up with a clever transaction that substantially alters the risk to the bond holder with no compensation. For personal investing, I can not a see a reason to hold any debt that is not government debt. The premium is too small to cover all the hard to imagine risks.

The jump in the last 1 month has been nearly double the jump over the last 6 months! This is while the Fed funds rate has been steady at 5.25.

I think the 30-year rate may _drop_ again if the Fed _raises_ interest rate. The market may be pricing-in higher expected inflation given the current low rate.

HARM: So remind me how American capitalism is different again?
Peter P: It has less-strict regulations and it is a little more diligent in enforcement.

I remember seeing a PBS special recently on "green" building in China. Pretty interesting stuff they were doing with regards to energy efficiency. A commentator, though, mentioned that in the US you couldn't get an occupancy permit if parts of the building code were selectively ignored. In China, well, they need the housing or office space. Lets move in and get it right next time.

Bay Area Craigslist ReduceOMeter holding steady at 210 listings (June 1&2) -- including some FB who listed his Daly City condo 5 times. Hardly any of the "reduced" listings are in Fortress areas, though. Foot traffic was brisk this weekend at the open houses I visited on Sunday, but the weather was quite nice so it could have been the neighbors checking out comps. Realtors always seem to have a favorite story of a house that recently sold over asking when pressed about the large percentage drop in sales volume (April DQ numbers). Is it "different" in your neighborhood? Socketsite has an article about rising rents and increased occupancy rates in SF and San Jose (watch out for the return of the SoftservePrincess). I do know that commercial rates seem to be inching up in our area, which seems to reflect an economy that is doing well.

I was away most of the day. Harm, that was a great article. Fun thread!

The problem of Chinese cannot be better summed up than what skibum has said.

Everywhere you go in China, the locals try to prove to you that they have what you have, too. More so, they try to prove to you that YOU are actually inferior to them in standard of living, economic prospect, etc., which is a very sickening attitude, and the whole country is immersed in such an overly-competitive and counter-productive way.

The MOTIVATION of whole China is on the wrong track. It is not improving itself to provide a better life to its people. It is out there to prove that they are just as good, if not better, and if it has the power, it will for sure wield it like a 5-year old just to show off. Nothing scares me more than having China in its current mindset become a superpower, that'll be Bush 10x.

Stop calling it Red China. It is the mecca of ultimate capitalism on earth, the kind that inspired Enges and Marx to write their manifesto.

OO,
I think this mindset is reflected in many recent immigrants from China, too. It's interesting, but I notice the hyper-competitiveness and voracious hunger to succeed much more in immigrants from China, then say, immigrants from Taiwan or Hong Kong.

It’s interesting, but I notice the hyper-competitiveness and voracious hunger to succeed much more in immigrants from China, then say, immigrants from Taiwan or Hong Kong.

Perhaps more enlightened people have realized that hyper-competitiveness is counter-productive? Perhaps Chinese immigrants from Taiwan or Hong Kong still remember the teachings from I Ching and The Art of War?

It is imperative to understand that winning itself is way more important than the appearance of winning.

skibum,

Excellent China analysis. As my parents and their more clear headed friends often lament, the Chinese populace has learnt nothing from history and is repeating all the mistakes of capitalism.

It's hard to say how much of the current arrogant wastefulness could have been curbed if Deng had selected better heirs. Oh well.

OO,

The mindset of the Mainland Chinese bourgeoisie is callous, self-righteous, self centered and WASTEFUL. Even my parents in the States are afflicted. My mom came back from a recent trip to Shanghai speaking of their perfectly nice, centrally located Shanghai flat as if it was unfit for human habitation (even though it is modern, well constructed, quiet, well spaced, well lit, etc). Apparently her friends all disparage of 110 sq meter flats now that some (by no means the majority) live in 200 sq meter duplexes.