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Hedge Funds Call Foul


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2007 Jun 3, 10:01am   13,901 views  118 comments

by Patrick   ➕follow (60)   💰tip   ignore  

Hedge funds are now upset that banks are changing the terms of mortgages already made. The hedge funds have bought derivatives to bet on (against) the housing market, and find the value of their derivatives is falling as the banks let borrowers off the hook:

The funds claim banks are making concessions on the underlying mortgages - such as lowering the interest rate or extending the life of the loan - to avoid making good on derivatives contracts that pay off in cases of default. The article quotes a former SEC chairman saying such gaming, if proved, would be actionable under federal securities laws. However, the dispute pits hedge fund interests against those of stretched US mortgage borrowers, and politicians who want to help them keep their (overpriced McMansions)

This is interesting. Who will win? Enforcement of contracts (hedge funds), or the ability to weasel out of contracts (banks/politicians/FB's)?

Patrick

#housing

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107   HARM   2007 Jun 5, 9:09am  

Huh? China has very strict regulations. It is just lax on enforcement.

So remind me how American capitalism is different again?

108   Peter P   2007 Jun 5, 9:12am  

So remind me how American capitalism is different again?

It has less-strict regulations and it is a little more diligent in enforcement.

109   HARM   2007 Jun 5, 9:54am  

I would replace the word "lax" with "selective". As in, China (or to a somewhat lesser extent, the U.S.) is very "selective" in terms of which laws it chooses to enforce, and which individuals it chooses to hold accountable (or make an example of).

110   monkeyinchief   2007 Jun 5, 10:14am  

This fight over how MBS can be modified illustrates the point really nicely that there are significant risks to being a bond holder. It's impossible to foresee every way the borrower or somebody in the food chain can later try to up the risk of the bond holder. Corporate bonds have the this same issue where somebody comes up with a clever transaction that substantially alters the risk to the bond holder with no compensation. For personal investing, I can not a see a reason to hold any debt that is not government debt. The premium is too small to cover all the hard to imagine risks.

111   Peter P   2007 Jun 5, 10:48am  

The jump in the last 1 month has been nearly double the jump over the last 6 months! This is while the Fed funds rate has been steady at 5.25.

I think the 30-year rate may _drop_ again if the Fed _raises_ interest rate. The market may be pricing-in higher expected inflation given the current low rate.

112   EBGuy   2007 Jun 5, 11:35am  

HARM: So remind me how American capitalism is different again?
Peter P: It has less-strict regulations and it is a little more diligent in enforcement.

I remember seeing a PBS special recently on "green" building in China. Pretty interesting stuff they were doing with regards to energy efficiency. A commentator, though, mentioned that in the US you couldn't get an occupancy permit if parts of the building code were selectively ignored. In China, well, they need the housing or office space. Lets move in and get it right next time.

Bay Area Craigslist ReduceOMeter holding steady at 210 listings (June 1&2) -- including some FB who listed his Daly City condo 5 times. Hardly any of the "reduced" listings are in Fortress areas, though. Foot traffic was brisk this weekend at the open houses I visited on Sunday, but the weather was quite nice so it could have been the neighbors checking out comps. Realtors always seem to have a favorite story of a house that recently sold over asking when pressed about the large percentage drop in sales volume (April DQ numbers). Is it "different" in your neighborhood? Socketsite has an article about rising rents and increased occupancy rates in SF and San Jose (watch out for the return of the SoftservePrincess). I do know that commercial rates seem to be inching up in our area, which seems to reflect an economy that is doing well.

113   Malcolm   2007 Jun 5, 1:17pm  

I was away most of the day. Harm, that was a great article. Fun thread!

114   OO   2007 Jun 5, 6:31pm  

The problem of Chinese cannot be better summed up than what skibum has said.

Everywhere you go in China, the locals try to prove to you that they have what you have, too. More so, they try to prove to you that YOU are actually inferior to them in standard of living, economic prospect, etc., which is a very sickening attitude, and the whole country is immersed in such an overly-competitive and counter-productive way.

The MOTIVATION of whole China is on the wrong track. It is not improving itself to provide a better life to its people. It is out there to prove that they are just as good, if not better, and if it has the power, it will for sure wield it like a 5-year old just to show off. Nothing scares me more than having China in its current mindset become a superpower, that'll be Bush 10x.

Stop calling it Red China. It is the mecca of ultimate capitalism on earth, the kind that inspired Enges and Marx to write their manifesto.

115   skibum   2007 Jun 6, 1:52am  

OO,
I think this mindset is reflected in many recent immigrants from China, too. It's interesting, but I notice the hyper-competitiveness and voracious hunger to succeed much more in immigrants from China, then say, immigrants from Taiwan or Hong Kong.

116   Peter P   2007 Jun 6, 4:09am  

It’s interesting, but I notice the hyper-competitiveness and voracious hunger to succeed much more in immigrants from China, then say, immigrants from Taiwan or Hong Kong.

Perhaps more enlightened people have realized that hyper-competitiveness is counter-productive? Perhaps Chinese immigrants from Taiwan or Hong Kong still remember the teachings from I Ching and The Art of War?

It is imperative to understand that winning itself is way more important than the appearance of winning.

117   astrid   2007 Jun 7, 2:52am  

skibum,

Excellent China analysis. As my parents and their more clear headed friends often lament, the Chinese populace has learnt nothing from history and is repeating all the mistakes of capitalism.

It's hard to say how much of the current arrogant wastefulness could have been curbed if Deng had selected better heirs. Oh well.

118   astrid   2007 Jun 7, 3:00am  

OO,

The mindset of the Mainland Chinese bourgeoisie is callous, self-righteous, self centered and WASTEFUL. Even my parents in the States are afflicted. My mom came back from a recent trip to Shanghai speaking of their perfectly nice, centrally located Shanghai flat as if it was unfit for human habitation (even though it is modern, well constructed, quiet, well spaced, well lit, etc). Apparently her friends all disparage of 110 sq meter flats now that some (by no means the majority) live in 200 sq meter duplexes.

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