patrick.net

The general economy. Too funny.

So you think it is a preemptive fuss as to avoid my criticism early on so that it doesn't give the appearance of sour grapes when they really do lose money? I tend to thing betting against the bond values in the long term is probably the correct move.

I see some validity because they might just be getting nervous at the possibility. Does anyone think in the longer term any renegotiations are going to have a significant impact? I think that is why the government seems to be backing off from bailout talk. When someone just looks at how really F'd these FBs are they realize it would take more than is even feasible to bail them out. You can't save someone who borrowed twice what the house is worth, I don't care how creative you get.

The Federal Reserve is facing growing pressure to consider raising interest rates as soon as December.

SP,
I think this is still unlikely at this point. Inflation would have to REALLY get out of control, meaning, the highly manipulated inflation measures the Fed says they rely on, which have so far been slightly above their targets, get measurably out of control.

So far, the Fed under Bendover Ben has only been giving lip service to inflation fighting. Every friggin' statement since they've held rates steady last year has been essentially, "Inflation pressures remain. We are vigilant. And don't think we wouldn't be willing to raise rates more - cause believe us - we're willing to do it!"

I think they are trying to curb inflation expectations without actually raising rates any further. A neat trick, if they can pull it off.

The current battle between banksters and hedgies over who gets to be bagholder reminds me of a favorite quote:

“If you owe the bank $100, that’s your problem. If you owe the bank $100 million, that’s the bank’s problem.”
–J. Paul Getty

I highly recommend the links HARM listed to the Fitch reports on the Calculated Risk blog. This little gem was posted over at Ben's blog by Englishman in NJ.

Either way, it’s hard to overstate what a pain in the butt this [delays in foreclosure and recovery of principal] is for Trustees, and especially the “Master Servicers” who are responsible for managing the foreclosure process and recovering the principal. Another point, during this process, the Master Servicer is responsible for making “advances of principal and interest” to the MBS holders during the period in which the borrower is delinquent. This should lead to very interesting times for the major Master Servicers out there….names such as Countrywide, Washington Mutual, Wells Fargo, Citigroup.
Hmmm.... this seems like an added incentive to do more loan workouts. Others have pointed out (see Fitch report) that servicers have the MBS holders over a barrel; they don't want to see the servicer go under as a new servicer would charge an arm and a leg to manage the toxic waste dump of a security that they are holding.

skibum and SP :

The FED will raise the interest rates if the market wants it to. The Fed Funds futures have been remarkably good at predicting Fed's next move.

So in addition to the slippery game of trying to manage inflation expectations, the spineless FED also doesn't want to surprise the markets. If Fed funds futures are showing significant chance of a raise, then almost everyone is expecting them to raise rates, then it means it's not wrong to increase the rates and then increasing them won't be a political suicide.

Does everyone think we need to go to war with Iraq ? OK. Then let me vote to give the president the supreme powers. Oh, now everyone is fed up with the war ? OK. Then let me chant "bring back the troops".

The politicians (including Fed governors) discovered "Wisdom of the crowds" eons earlier than the techies.

skibum says: Well, with national RE prices are declining, that loss of “paper wealth” will hit participants from all segments of this process in their pockets, and some of those paper losses do translate to real losses. So, to me, it’s not surprising that everyone gets hurt a little bit.

Except that money is neither created nor destroyed (except in very special cases). So whoever got paid for the houses still got a lot of money. I've always been curious where that money went.

HaHa: The logic still doesn't hold. They bought those bigger houses from someone else. What did that person do in turn? Even if you had a house built for you, that means you paid a builder, who paid for materials and labor, and the materials company paid its employees, who spend in the economy... and so on.

It's the same argument about stocks. If I pay $1000 for a stock, take a bath and sell for $100, I still paid someone else $1000. From an individual standpoint people can be big winners and big losers. But viewed as an economy, that money is neither created nor destroyed. So it must be collecting somewhere. I am curious where.

HaHa

Or put it into Vanguard's Municipal Money Market

So it must be collecting somewhere. I am curious where.

The answer (only half kidding): hedge fund and investment house manager bonuses!

And the HF and IB managers then plow those bonuses into mansions in Greenwich, CT or the Hamptons... thus completing the full RE circle.

trader,

Thanks for the "real skinny". It's not like anyone here was shedding a tear for specuvestors anyway but it's nice to have the full details.

Right in line w/ "No one knows who owns your loan" is Kathleen Pender's article on www.sfgate.com. In "Struggling borrowers" she talks about the growing lack of effectiveness in the BA for loss mitigation. Caller ID (and the fact that people LIED to get their stated income loans) coupled with flippers and specuvestors that show their loan as a "primary residence" seems are gumming the works?

This is not a contract enforcement issue. Parties in a contract can amend it if they all agree. Trader did a very nice job of laying it all out and supporting my point that hedge betters are third parties.

In my investment group, the servicer can amend the loan with the borrower if we vote to permit the change. Terms are changed quite routinely, normally things like loan extensions, but sometimes it can even be forgiveness of late fees and interest if the borrower is facing trouble but another lender wants to refinance him but needs to be below a limit. The scenarios can get pretty interesting as to why you need to change a loan around.

Except that money is neither created nor destroyed (except in very special cases).

Is this the Law of Conservation of Money Supply? Elegant theory, but... not so sure I agree with this view, especially when the Fed is pumping M3 like mad (which they conveniently stopped reporting last year), and M1 & M2 are also growing at a healthy clip YoY: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Components_of_the_United_States_money_supply.svg

Perhaps money is neither "created nor destroyed" outright, but it sure gets debased on a regular basis.

Would you elaborate a little more on China, and its relative economic power especially as it applies to debasing the United State's economy? I am one who sees China as a greater threat than a benefit so I'd be very interested to hear a counter point. I don't normally hear people downplay their growing role.

"The guy took out 600k MEW before the foreclosure. Nice. That's a nice foreclosure golden parachute."

My guess is that it was the MEW that got him THIS far! Redfin says it's "in foreclosure" so I'm not sure if the guy might be able to engineer a short sale or if it's already bank owned?

So he was able to milk (on avg.) about 66k per year out of it? Not bad. He did manage to buy at just about the darkest hour, didn't he? So what happened? What went wrong? With all that appreciation you'd think there'd be no way to lose! Yet somehow these people are managing.

I am one who sees China as a greater threat than a benefit so I’d be very interested to hear a counter point.

China is probably a strategic competitor, not necessarily a threat. If consumers of the world unite and drink the collective kool-aid then at least the illusion of prosperity will continue. There will be no conflicts.

If consumers of the world unite and drink the collective kool-aid then at least the illusion of prosperity will continue. There will be no conflicts.

Unfortunately, the kool-aid will be from china - and it will have diethylene glycol.

trader:

Thanks for the info.

The 10yr is knocking on the 5.00 door. Last year, it entered the >5 territory, only to retreat all the way back to 4.5. Hope this time it goes over 5 and holds there.

The kool-aid will have melamine in it. :(

Seriously, 10 years ago in an undegrad B2B marketing class I warned of China's growing dominence which is masking something more sinister. Now my fears seem to be materializing in an uncontrollable, unstoppable way, and Peter is not the fist one to say, just go with it, it is the free market doing its thing.

As long as you don't resist, no harm will come to you.

The rise of China will undoubtedly bring some uncomfortable changes to many. But I think if we position ourselves correctly, we can reap gains from such changes.

I don't think China has evil intentions. But it sure will suck up natural resources like a mop.

As long as you don’t resist, no harm will come to you.

And even if you do resist, I may still come (especially if there's some free food or entertainment involved). ;-)

Speaking of melamine, gotta hand it to the Red Chinese. Those guys don't f@ck around when it comes to disciplining corrupt bureaucrats: http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2007/05/29/health/main2860989.shtml

Ahhh... if only we could execute Greedspan & Co. :-(

Im imaging him moving to FO country and renting a nice condo on a gold course for $800 a month and living off the 600k and laughing at us clownifornians.

HelloKitty,
Am I being naive or what - wouldn't the bank or other lien-holders be able to collect some of that $600k to help pay off this guy's obligations? Isn't that one of the points of foreclosure - to reckon these debts?

Those guys don’t f@ck around when it comes to disciplining corrupt bureaucrats: http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2007/05/29/health/main2860989.shtml

It strikes me that some of the current business practices in China must be a libertarian's dream - very limited government involvement and oversight. Or, as they would say "free of interference from a nanny state".

Manufacturers wouldn't make poisonous toothpaste, cough syrup, baby milk, etc if the marketplace would reject it. See, it self corrects! No need for costly, inefficient, government at all.

Who would know better: a corrupt inefficient overpaid government bureaucrat that would only drive up prices, or yourself and the marketplace?

It's this kind of environment that fosters entrepreneurial risk taking - things that make business successful.

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/06/05/business/worldbusiness/05fakes.html?ei=5070&em=&en=fe751d2f00f1070f&ex=1181188800&pagewanted=all

For decades, small entrepreneurs have started out counterfeiting in emerging industries in China, seeking an early advantage and their first pot of gold.

Often, they try to get around regulations, or simply believe small-time cheating that involves adding cheap substitutes or low-grade ingredients will not cause much harm.

“Basically, for entrepreneurs, if something is not explicitly banned — it’s not banned,” said Dali Yang, who teaches at the University of Chicago and has studied China’s food safety regulations. “As long as people are not sick or dying, it’s O.K.”

Experts say counterfeiters are now moving to outlying areas of the country, where it is easier to evade regulation. The counterfeiters are also moving into food and agriculture, which are difficult to monitor because they involve small farmers and entrepreneurs.

Small-time entrepreneurs have played the same game over and over with other products, experts say, adding cheap substitute chemicals to toothpaste; using lower-grade materials to produce car parts, batteries and cellphones; and creating factories that specialize in counterfeit goods.

We must get rid of the FDA, EPA, OSHA, USDA and all these other bloated inefficient fat cat government agencies today if we are to succeed and bring back what made America great.

Let the marketplace decide!

Speaking of melamine, gotta hand it to the Red Chinese. Those guys don’t f@ck around when it comes to disciplining corrupt bureaucrats: http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2007/05/29/health/main2860989.shtml

In all seriousness, this execution was just to appease the US government.

In reality, if you read more articles about this sentencing, you'll find that Chinese government officials saying that they don't understand why the US Government is so overreacting so much to something so minor like a few deaths in a DIFFERENT country.

I don’t think China has evil intentions. But it sure will suck up natural resources like a mop.

China's intentions (internationally), although probably not sinister, are tainted by their recent history. They as a nation have a chip on their shoulder going back to colonialism, the Boxer Rebellion and such, through Japanese occupation during WWII and more recently a self-inflicted cultural revolution mess. They are producing, growing, and booming with a fiendish fury that's almost akin to Iago's also-ran desperation - ie, they're definitely out to prove themselves. Whether or not that remains limited to their economy or expands into their military is up for debate.

Please unmoderate my comment. THanks!

Ok, it's clear what we need to do then. We all should petition Red China to hire Greedspan and D.L. for some top bureaucrat job. Then be sure they get offered lavish bribes to look the other way for something guaranteed to kill a few people (or some American pets). That's a "win-win" for both sides ;-) .

It strikes me that some of the current business practices in China must be a libertarian’s dream - very limited government involvement and oversight. Or, as they would say “free of interference from a nanny state”.

Huh? China has very strict regulations. It is just lax on enforcement.

Manufacturers wouldn’t make poisonous toothpaste, cough syrup, baby milk, etc if the marketplace would reject it. See, it self corrects! No need for costly, inefficient, government at all.

It will self-correct eventually. Education and information will speed up the process.

Huh? China has very strict regulations. It is just lax on enforcement.

So remind me how American capitalism is different again?

So remind me how American capitalism is different again?

It has less-strict regulations and it is a little more diligent in enforcement.

I would replace the word "lax" with "selective". As in, China (or to a somewhat lesser extent, the U.S.) is very "selective" in terms of which laws it chooses to enforce, and which individuals it chooses to hold accountable (or make an example of).

This fight over how MBS can be modified illustrates the point really nicely that there are significant risks to being a bond holder. It's impossible to foresee every way the borrower or somebody in the food chain can later try to up the risk of the bond holder. Corporate bonds have the this same issue where somebody comes up with a clever transaction that substantially alters the risk to the bond holder with no compensation. For personal investing, I can not a see a reason to hold any debt that is not government debt. The premium is too small to cover all the hard to imagine risks.

The jump in the last 1 month has been nearly double the jump over the last 6 months! This is while the Fed funds rate has been steady at 5.25.

I think the 30-year rate may _drop_ again if the Fed _raises_ interest rate. The market may be pricing-in higher expected inflation given the current low rate.

HARM: So remind me how American capitalism is different again?
Peter P: It has less-strict regulations and it is a little more diligent in enforcement.

I remember seeing a PBS special recently on "green" building in China. Pretty interesting stuff they were doing with regards to energy efficiency. A commentator, though, mentioned that in the US you couldn't get an occupancy permit if parts of the building code were selectively ignored. In China, well, they need the housing or office space. Lets move in and get it right next time.

Bay Area Craigslist ReduceOMeter holding steady at 210 listings (June 1&2) -- including some FB who listed his Daly City condo 5 times. Hardly any of the "reduced" listings are in Fortress areas, though. Foot traffic was brisk this weekend at the open houses I visited on Sunday, but the weather was quite nice so it could have been the neighbors checking out comps. Realtors always seem to have a favorite story of a house that recently sold over asking when pressed about the large percentage drop in sales volume (April DQ numbers). Is it "different" in your neighborhood? Socketsite has an article about rising rents and increased occupancy rates in SF and San Jose (watch out for the return of the SoftservePrincess). I do know that commercial rates seem to be inching up in our area, which seems to reflect an economy that is doing well.

I was away most of the day. Harm, that was a great article. Fun thread!