patrick.net

Anybody have predictions for the SF Bay Area DQ #’s?
Sales will be down... 24.8% (can't bring myself to say they will be off by a quarter).

Forgot to include Piedmont as part of "Fortress BA". Someone is trying to sell some land at $100 per sq.ft. for ~8000 sq.ft. Trying to compete with Marin prices... over $4 million an acre.

Randy H Says:

> FAB I don’t disagree. The point is that your statement
> is true only is selected cities/regions. Not overall. In SF,
> your statement is true. That was AB’s point. In Cleveland
> or Des Moines or Colorado Springs it is false.

If you buy in a better than average area in any city you should do fine (homes in the Bratenahl area of East Cleveland and homes in the area around The Broadmoor in CO Springs cost more than a typical home in Marin… My point is that if you want to compare the “returns” of stocks and gold to real estate over a long time you can’t forget to add the dividends with stocks and adjust the “cost” of a single family home based on the rent savings. As I have posted many times it would cost me thousands more to “buy” today than to rent, but over a long time (after you pay off the house and lock in low Prop 13 taxes) it costs a lot less each month to own (My parents total housing cost each month is less than the cost of renting a typical apartment in San Mateo and that includes taxes, utilities and even the gardener)…

> On an unrelated point, do you mind if I email you questions on
> specific properties time-to-time? I promise to publicize the info
> here on everything unless it happens to be the one I end up
> buying. I’m eying a couple of seemingly nice places in MV right now.

I’ll be happy to answer any Marin property specific questions when I have time. Since I don’t check my Google e-mail every day add a P.S. to one of your posts on the BLOG letting me know that you sent me a question. I’ve been traveling a little more lately and have not been reading the BLOG (or posting) as much so if I don’t respond right away add another P.S. in the next thread.

Ozman,

Somehow I'd like to think that Ben Franklin would have approved of Warren Buffet whole heartedly!

@eburbed,

Now you're talking! Actually Randy H's Cap. 2.0 web-site might be a better forum (just click on his screen name). I won't pretend to know anything about tech consulting but what I can tell you is if you've always been a "W-2 guy" just being introduced to Schedule C will seem like such a revelation to you!

At least initially, the primary benefit (as you ramp up your business) is that you'll be able to show legitimate expenses and... in essence, operate at a loss for the first 3 years. Randy and I have had our doubts about those that seem to be starting some sort of "new" consulting service every 3rd. year! It definitely seems you have an eye on more than just milking Sched. C!

In the end, our practices become a reflection of ourselves. People tend to gravitate toward other like minded people. As evidenced here. I know it sounds old fashioned but it's still true. Create in your mind what your ideal client would look like. Make a list of 50-100 clients/firms that fit that description and then create a business plan to bring those clients on board!

Good luck and maybe we can talk Randy into giving it some time over at his forum!

@FAB

Thanks. I've been traveling too, and my BB isn't idea for viewing and responding to the blog. For the same reason my own blog has gone stale.

PS: I have sent you another query re: MV. We've decided to pass on Eton -- the property will take $0.35mm in work just to fix the kitchen & add a small family room. It is a great example of how one can buy 1.5acres in prime South Marin for under $2.00mm, whereas the same things a year ago would have been pushing $3.00mm.

I'm not worried about irrelevance. When this blog is irrelevant, I'll be
pretty happy.

But a food blog or book club would be great too.

Interesting trip down memory lane. I wonder if when Patrick wrote this, he had any inclining that 6 years later his "housing blog" would in become a haven for 9/11 conspiracy theories, permabears who still think a massive price drops are just around the corner, and people fabricating and then furiously deleting posts in a never-ending troll war.

It's not the site that's irrelevant, it's all of us that comment. lol