patrick.net

You could lower the prices of all the TECH equipment in, that is SUCH a fractional part of ones budget as you don't buy a laptop everyday, or every month, once or twice every couple of years, (Durable equipment) if you are meaning that because the costs go down on tech. that will cause the companies to make less profit, and therefore pay less etc... the profit margin will still be high. BA prices are going lower over the next 20 years (much like Japan, and no one thought it would happen there either) I think the stock market will be making new lows in the next two years (sometime in that time span)

As to if I am a renter or mortgage holder, I used to be a mortgage holder (twice, I have been a home owner since 1982) Back in 2008 I downsized from 3000 Sq. Ft. to 740 Sq. Ft. apartment and I love it when compared to the hour drive each way, and the taxes, unexpected repairs (even though I bought new home) Fuel jumped up and my fuel bill went sky ward. Now that I rent 7 miles from work, quality of life went way way up, costs way way down, and I see a new trend of both wanting to make a smaller carbon foot print and or need to use less, (as costs will be high to use any and all resources, fuel, food, raw materials) are all going higher. So between the want, and need to use less, go smaller, and live more responsible as a population. Loans are going and should be HARD TO get, I would love to see 50% req. and 7 year max that way we could work to live and not work just to have a house, and in fact two working to have just to have a house.

Oh.

Weird, I thought your profile was Brentwood. Sorry for the mistake.

It did, thank you helped me realize I had not updated it... No need to apologize, I don't want to be that GUY that is slamming anyone, I want to have a spirited well thought out dialog, I really feel for many reasons, that our Ca. BA in-particular is OVER PRICED and headed MUCH LOWER I want to talk about it, I live eat and breath economics (as a laymen) but I get off on the thought pattern it makes us think like.

cvoc,

Some inlaws of mine relocated to a townhome settlement there, the breadwinner works as a staff at UCB. I really like their location because it is easy bicycle distance to the BART. Of course they overpaid for it in 2008 but that is a different story.

They drive to the BART but since it is such a short distance could easily handle peak oil gasoline prices.

If you ever wanna get together at the Starbucks in "The Shops" where sometimes I go during seemingly endless weekend afternoon visits sitting around the living room listening to inlaws "catch up" about others who I don't know who/what they are talking about, gimmee a yell.

Wow, this topic has been all over the place.

At the end of the day, the pro-housing arguments are predicated on the recession ending and the economy (jobs, wages, etc) continuing to recover. IMO this is not a sure thing. We could quite likely see a return to negative GDP this year. People are still getting behind on their mortgages, banks are still failing (118 so far this year), unemployment claims are edging back up - all signs that the last few quarters of growth was pure govt papering. Now that the support is being withdrawn the downturn is resuming. And I believe the Dems are going to get trounced this Fall so the possibility of more stimulus is diminishing by the day.

Instead of pendulums and dams, my analogy would be a boulder and a hill. The govt stopped the boulder halfway down the hill but the potential energy is still there. If there is sufficient strength in the economy it could be moved back up the hill but I don't see from where that energy would come. Most likely the govt support will continue wither and the boulder to continue it's move down the hill.

So that's the reason I'm not buying yet.

I like the analogy of the Bolder being on the hill, rather apt... Nicely done. With tomorrows data (existing housing sales likely to be down 16% consensus is 12.9-13.2 Bloomberg) I think its going to come in worse then that, 25% is my personal GUESS with revised GDP at .5 consensus is 1.4 I think jobless claims on friday.

I am thinking 535,000 and that will bring the stock market way way down, on any giving day this week if not all week.

But bottom line this weeks data is going to confirm what many of us have been saying all of last few months of 09 and all of 2010 and we have a lot more to go through. While none of us want that to be the case, when you stop and think about it, almost has to be. Unemployment headed higher, foreclosures, banks, etc... we are in a deep deep de-leveraging hole, that should take about 5-7 years total, and we are in year 2 of 7 and very few of these bulls will be super surprised to see where housing pricing in the BA for example so much lower, and destine to stay that way.

sybrib - we can hope. But as i recall also, the founder the Pet Rock, who came from Los Gatos did very well. Couple of guys from Santa Cruz made the first Wine Coolers, bright idea.

Pet Rock.. well he made a cool million on that ...