patrick.net

You know, if the FED is such a great monopoly, you'd think that a lot of people would have learned how to play that to their massive benefit. I mean seriously, how does one get rich off the FED? Since they affect the economy directly, you must be able to follow the moves of the powerful beforehand and act accordingly. Why not a hedge fund geared to the financial aristocracy?

Why do these geeks buy little rice burners and then go down the road at 80, yes 80, miles per hour?

Geeks. Enough said. :)

Ok, can someone please explain something to me. How did the total # of licensed Realtors in CA jump 33,000 since last June? http://www.dre.ca.gov/statistics.htm

The number of transactions is dropping like a rock practically everywhere, the MSM is now running as many bad news stories on RE as fluff pieces, and even Cramer --yes, CRAMER-- has finally turned bearish on stocks (buy signal?). How is it that the number of licensed agents+brokers actually managed to rise ~7% YoY? What's the new ratio now --something like 1 in 40 adults? Does this mean we'll all be Realtors by 2020?

"Does this mean we'll all be Realtors by 2020?"

Lord. I hope NOT!

I'd be all in favor of an incremental phase out of cap gains on primary homes. While I do hear where Brand is coming from the reality is that SO MANY of the stories we're hearing on a daily basis are from people that moved based on employment (thought they were cutting a fat hog) and now can't sell?

If this boils down to: Do we massage our tax code to accomodate people that need (or want ) to move every 2 years... Or do we structure it in a manner that rewards long term ownership, well then I'm advocating long term every time! And please, let's do away with the "Any 2 Will Do" for crissakes. As Headset rightly points out, this has gotten so abused it's now basically out of control. I don't "believe" playing "musical primary residences" was the spirit of the law?

The license gets you access.

My bet is that the number of licensed Realtors actively representing someone else in a sale pales in comparison to those just using the access to industry information for their own profit.

Is it better to represent yourself in a deal, if you can?

Sad to say, I know several newly minted realtors.

One is a mostly stay-at-home mom who talks up real estate at parties and to date has helped one friend into homeownership. It's fun for her, I guess, and it earns a little money--or, here in Cali, quite a bit of money. I guess she will sell as many houses as her friends need.

The other one is a "financial planner," though I'm honestly not sure what that means. It seems to include some advising and a considerable amount of selling financial products. He figures he can fleece, I mean serve, his clients by helping them with their real estate deals as well. As he points out, there isn't much to listing a house on the MLS, and since he already has a relationship with these clients, why shouldn't he get the money? I suspect he will hire a college student to sit his open houses for him.

The last one took a job as a personal assistant for a successful realtor in SF and got pulled into the work. Since it is a mentorship situation, he might do OK.

Plunge Protection Team (PPT) did their job ... bulls are back.

Cramer isn't bearish. He's just a good snake oil salesman. Like a fortune teller, he subtly waffles and equivocates enough so that he can always say he was right.

Harm, I have a guess on the realtors question. When they can't make money they become waiters so they are technically still licensed realtors. The new ones are still chasing the bubble because 'it could turn any minute.'

I'm still curious how Cramer has ANY credibility left. He was completely wrong about the largest bubble in history. An amateur like me made a ton of money shorting the stocks he was pumping. In other words if you followed Cramer's advice that he 'liked LEND's business model' you now have less than a third of your original investment. I turned $40K into $108K pretty much on that stock alone.

I'll take the ricers over the distracted suburban mom yakking on a cellphone while backing her F-350 out of her parking space.

sriramgopalan Says:
July 30th, 2007 at 8:17 pm
"As long as there are human beings, there will be human nature. No amount of legislation or government control is going to change that."

But it does. There are countless examples. I'd like to think unregulated businesses, and proprietors could toe the line on the honor system but history clearly shows that the strict laisses faire point of view is baseless. It is literally chanted like dogma with only a one sided economic theory argument to back it up.

I just checked DQs example from a few months back. I guess it was a valid example of a real individual SF price increase year over year. I apologize in advance if this has been covered.

"DAiryQUeen Says:
May 21st, 2007 at 9:20 pm
Randy H - You’re welcome to provide the Belmont link, since prices are up about 15-20% since beginning of 2005.
But, here’s a nicce link for you. 3,200sqft house with NO BACK YARD i.e. small lot. 2 open houses, and boom.. in contract at $3.85 million already."

Link no longer works but I had typed the address right after she posted this.

2511 Steiner St, San Francisco, CA 94115

Sale History
06/05/2007: $4,200,000
03/27/2003: $2,100,000

I know so DAMN much about the market, I'm predicting today's climb to be .......drum roll.....THE dead cat bounce.......

This is really it!!! The sky is falling!!!!

Fall sky!!!

And another thang!

Since food and energy are excluded from inflation data I've decided to exclude them from my life!!

I'll eat plasma screen tvs from now on.....

Ride to work on laptops.....

It's pretty easy get a realtor's license....

IIUC members of the CA bar are waived from taking the CA broker's test, just having to pay the license fee. I guess the theory is that law school real property/contracts/torts classes are more thorough than anything realtors would take, so they give you a pass on them.

There are over 200,000 members of the CA bar. This may be a source of the rapid increase in realtors in CA.

But a potentially good law was mucked by the “2 out of 5″ rule. To be fair, the house should always be owner occupied. Renting it out should subject the owner to the same cap gains and recoup depr as any other landlord.

Headset,
Are you sure you can avoid the depreciation recoup?
I still hold that the exemption itself is not flawed (I will give a 2 year homesitter their due -- not looking good if you are starting, say, now), but it is the massive fraud that is the problem. If the law cannot be easily enforced, then perhaps it is due for an overhaul. Still not clear to me that is the case. Seems to me that an IRS agent with access to property records could have a field day (as someone here mentioned several months ago).

Quote of the week (so many good ones as of late):
"Much of prime is not really prime. The Alt-A base (has) been found to be really subprime. And much of the subprime has turned out to be flat-out fraud," Mason says.
"Borrowers over-borrowed, brokers over-lent, investment banks oversold performance and rating agencies overrated (mortgage-backed securities). What we thought was quality was not quality," he says.

I could not bring myself to short my own bank, but I finally bought some puts (Jan 09) on Wells Fargo so that I am not just crying in my beer on the sidelines while the mess continues to unfold.

EBGuy,
Yeah, I read that article this morning. We all discussed this exact point a few months ago when the first bits of subprime meltdown news started showing up in the MSM. The consensus was that all the cheerleaders claiming the subprime mess will be "contained" were smoking crack. Now we're seeing the Alt-A and Prime spillover starting to occur.

It's a bit scary, but this whole thing is beginning to unravel even more dramatically than I thought it would.

FROM WSJ:

American Home Mortgage Investment Corp. confirmed Tuesday that it is facing serious liquidity issues amid a flood of margin calls from lenders and has hired advisors to evaluate its options, including the liquidation of its assets. Its shares fell 86% after being halted for a day and a half.

The Melville, N.Y., lender, whose stock was halted all day Monday and earlier Tuesday pending the announcement, said its lenders have initiated margin calls as the collateral value of some of the company's loans and securities has dropped. The company said it has already received and paid "very significant" margin calls ...

boy, it gets better and better. everywhere you look, you read about more and more hedge funds tanking.

Cramer isn’t bearish. He’s just a good snake oil salesman. Like a fortune teller, he subtly waffles and equivocates enough so that he can always say he was right.

Randy, couldn't have said any better.. I've been watching his show for a month... it is interesting to hear him say now he doesn't distinguish between sub-prime and prime.

”Now we’re seeing the Alt-A and Prime spillover starting to occur.”

A common theme in articles lately. But is it because:

1. Bundles of Mortgages that were ALL of the sub-prime flavor, were sliced into different grade tranches, so some of them appeared to be of better grade than the rest, and sold accordingly, despite the underlying rot?

or

2. Alt-A and Prime folks with good credit who qualified for better loans, were offered and accepted the various ninja loans, that are now proving unserviceable?

There has probably been a good mix of both senarios.

EBGuy says:

"Headset,
Are you sure you can avoid the depreciation recoup?"

You are correct. The 2 out of 5 will only spare the tax on cap gains.

One thing about this blog - it has enough experts that any error in facts will be noticed, fast. A good thing, even if embarrasing at times.

Trading re-opened on AHM this afternoon, but I'll bet they wish they hadn't. Looks to close around 1.20, down about 90% for the day.

EBGuy,

Funny quote! Alt A IS basically subprime (by another name) and subprime IS basically flat-out fraud! That's what I've been seeing (and saying) for some time! I share Cramer's frustration as people try to bend your ear explaining the "distinction" between different mortgage qualities. (Kind of like when skibum gets torqued when MSM writers drag you through "median price" for the umpteenth time)

It's like grading turds! C'mon, a turd is a turd.

It’s like grading turds! C’mon, a turd is a turd.

Now THAT's funny!

"Median Price" should be nominated to the Lake Superior State University Banished Words List, this year.

http://www.lssu.edu/banished/

It’s like grading turds! C’mon, a turd is a turd.

Where, O where is Surfer-X when we need him? :twisted:

“Any 2 Will Do”...
“musical primary residences”

I can get the financial news anywhere, but I come to Patrick.net for the superior bullshit filtration and snappy one-liners. :-)

@Headset,

RE: fiat currency. Well, as Randy has often pointed out (in his many one-on-ones with goldbugs), metal coinage can be debased, inflated and manipulated almost as easily as pure fiat currency (witness South Seas, Mississippi Co. bubbles, Roman debasement, etc.). So, I guess it all comes down to a matter of fiscal restraint, not the medium of exchange.

If you consistently increase your money supply beyond the actual real growth in productive capacity and population (like the Fed is doing), you end up with inflation, regardless of whether you use gold, fiat money, coconuts or sand dollars. That said, you have to park your money 'somewhere' to avoid losing purchasing power, and metals right now is about as good a place as any.

The May Case-Shiller Index numbers are out. The SF Bay Area (does NOT include SiliValley) gave up the incremental gains of the previous two months, and now sits around where it was in February (so much for the post Superbowl selling season). Looks like prime areas can now no longer compensate for the declining regions. Miami (with the highest index) turned negative a couple of months ago, and is experiencing increasing rates of depreciation. Shiller is as cheerful as ever.
“At a national level, declines in annual home price returns are showing no signs of a slowdown or turnaround,” says Robert J. Shiller, Chief Economist at MacroMarkets LLC.
The Composite-20 is about 200, so that is still around 10% appreciation since 2000.

I nominate REO Speedwagon's "Keep the Fire Burning" as the official RE bubble song for the rest of 2007.

EBGuy,

Add to that stocks have given up all of yesterday's modest "bounce" and then some thanks to Alt-A CDO & hedge fund "repricing". So much for Wall Street just "shrugging off" mortgage credit concerns.

"I nominate REO Speedwagon’s “Keep the Fire Burning” as the official RE bubble song for the rest of 2007."

...and follow that with a Prince hit rewrite: "Gonna party lilke it's 1928!"

HARM,
To add to your point, let's not forget that most hedge funds and other holders of these CDO's and such have yet to revalue their holdings, ala Bear Stearns now infamous duo. It seems every time someone takes a peek at their collection of "turds" as DiNOR eloquently puts it, they end up with phrases like "nearly worthless" or "junk" or the like.

Does MSM look at funds or MBs only after they've 'outed' themselves? It seems AHM or BS first have to 'out' themselves and then - maybe - the ratings get looked at.

The news on American Home was grim by Saturday morning. But seemed important enough to get coverage only this afternoon? Fine. OK.

"Gonna party like it's 1928!"

I was able to find the second edition of Jim Cramer's "give it up, default on your loan and send in the keys" youtube link through Housing Doom! His logic was that if you're 20-30% under water on your home it makes better sense to just walk away! Wow! Pretty shocking stuff.

He specifically mentions the Inland Empire, Las Vegas and Phoenix among others. Wouldn't that be great! Jim Cramer told me to walk away from my house! Good luck Mr. Banker!

"Where, O where is Surfer-X when we need him? "

I can usually get him to rise like a trout rising to a wooly bugger. All I have to do is brag about being a boomer retiring on his back!

I was able to find the second edition of Jim Cramer’s “give it up, default on your loan and send in the keys” youtube link through Housing Doom! His logic was that if you’re 20-30% under water on your home it makes better sense to just walk away!

One of the few prognostications I have made on this board (and there haven't been many), is that when nature of purchase money, non-recourse loans hits the MSM (and Cramer is pretty close), the tide has gone all the way out; better run for the high ground and prepare for the tsunami. So in my book, when the man on TV (non-recourse loan or not), says walk away -- its all over.

You folks should get a chuckle out of this. SF has a beleagured Supervisor, Ed Jew, who is facing criminal charges for "perjury, false statements and voter fraud" because he "allegedly" lives outside of the district he represents, in a totally different city, Burlingame. One of the pieces of evidence against him is the fact that "in January 2005, McCarthy testified, Jew applied for a real estate loan in Arizona saying he intended to live in a home he planned to buy in Phoenix. In that application, Jew said he had lived at a home at 2116 Roosevelt Ave., Burlingame, for the past six years, McCarthy said." Uhhhh, how about mortgage fraud too (wonder if he actually bought the place).... I guess I shouldn't be too judgemental, maybe he really was going to move to Phoenix (they have a lot less fog there, you know).

Morgan Hill is near 400 and Gilroy broke 550 in housing inventory. This doesn't include all the new houses the developers are trying to unload. 1/3-1/2 of the inventory in Morgan Hill and Gilroy have reduced at least once in asking price. Santa Teresa and Almaden are starting to pile up as well.

However, it seems that Cupertino, Mountain View and Palo Alto still have pretty low inventory plus a high clearing rate. This market is amazingly bifurcated.

2116 Roosevelt Ave, Burlingame was bought in 97 by Lorene Jew for $525K, and subsequently passed over entirely to Edmund Jew in 2001. I think Lorene Jew must be his mother, and the tax base was transferred along as well.

I know some families pass on their houses to kids just before the valuation hit $1M so as to avoid the death tax. The house is valued at around $1.3M by zillow today.

Incredible, but it appears that yet another Bear Stearns fund backed by mortgage securities is hitting the skids:

http://money.cnn.com/2007/07/31/news/companies/bear_stearns/index.htm?postversion=2007073118