patrick.net

I wish! I leave for Iceland on Wednesday, but a month long visit to Scandinavia would be nice!

Sorry... I somehow thought Finland = Iceland. Temporary insanity on my part. :)

I hope that the loan fallout will allow cash to speak so loudly again

Only if the seller has enough equity. Otherwise, they would rather hope for a "better" yet shakier offer.

Astrid, have a good trip! Hopefully, your American Pesto is worth something there.

Astrid,

Have fun, I love Iceland. Make sure to visit the geothermal swimming pools and beware any Icelandic food specialty, they are all vile!

Skibum,
It was 'I want to be sedated'.

Look what the market is doing to hedge fund managers:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aBoH27pAna34&refer=home

Didn't Chris Dodd have a big bug crawling all over his head during the last debate? I'll see if I can find photos. Maybe it was actually a REI drone bug, implanting a control chip in his brain?

Yep, there it is, the real estate industry drone 'fly' looking for the spot to inject the control chip. Obviously it is now instructing him to do whatever it takes to keep the party going.

http://youtube.com/watch?v=5L2y8nkaL9A

Live within our means? Never! That's unAmerican!

What about rents?

I would love to see what houses are actually renting for, but I am unaware of any data source.

In my area, a 2400 sft house in a particular development (over 500 houses) averaged around $310k last year, and has only fell to about 300k this year. However, asking rents for the same style house went from about $1400/mo to over $1800/mo. I'd love to know if people are actually getting those asking rents. If rents are rising for the $300k value houses, then that may put a break on declining home prices for that level.

Transparency in rents may influence sales prices.

I found that prices in Europe are not all that bad, even with the historically lousy exchange rate. Of course I say that coming from the Bay Area, which is not representative of the US.

About loan terms: So the public record includes the amount and the interest rate, but does it give the reset date and what the rate could potentially reset to? I asked a mortgage borker whom I know. He may have some insight.

I may have found a business model for patrick.net at long last: selling information weapons to buyers. I'm looking for advice, partners, financing, all the usual stuff. Write me at p@patrick.net if you're interested in working on this.

Patrick

Live within our means? Never! That’s unAmerican!

This is precisely why I have decided to have sushi at least three times a week!

If I go broke, get food poisoning, or have nasty parasites, our fine government will bail me out.

"Financial "privacy" should apply equally BOTH WAYS or be abolished"

A mortgage broker (that I never really cared for all that much) accidentally tipped his hand when he revealed that after FOUR YEARS (and at least as many employers) he had retained MY FILE complete with SS#, D.O.B, AND... my tax returns!

When I asked him how could've run my credit so quickly (without my having provided my SS#) he said; "Oh... I "kept" your file" (and tried to play it off). I was really p1ssed b/c you've gotta believe those doc's were probably in the trunk of his car, apartment etc. as he carted them around from job to job!

Of course the mortgage industry has ZERO control over doc's (let alone their "employees") and if you doubt me I recently spoke with a source in AZ that told me "At the rate subprime shops are folding up, they're not even bothering to shred client files! They're just throwing them in the dumpster!"

But no..., no, they don't need any over-sight or regulation.

I don't know WHAT IT IS... but every time I can't stay asleep during the weekends I go out to the living room and flip through the channels and sure as hell, "Rock n' Roll High School" (featuring the Ramones) is playing on AMC! (They kinda' grow on ya'). Weird huh?

I think Iceland's Ministry for Truth has gotten to Wikipedia; some of the pictures are /very/ impressive. Damn.

ObScandinavia: I now know two people in Sweden, so it looks like I may be heading there in October. Fitting, I guess; none of my international trips so far have been planned more than a month or two in advance.

Randy H Says:
the techno trance channel (which is impossible to sing to).

You should meet my kid - she usually sings the lyrics to whatever song is currently in her head, to the tune of whatever is playing on the radio.

One road trip I endured the words to "Hello Dolly" set to the tune of Ode To Joy, Enter Sandman AND the Benny Hill soundtrack. I handed her a sippy cup of apple juice just to get her to stop.

SP

Randy H said:

Congress will try to weaken the Fed independence. All those who have criticized the Fed as some “private” bank that controls the fate of millions may come to regret the US under a Congressionally controlled monetary policy. Imagine a world where inflation spikes into the high teens the year before every major election.

It's not the "independence" thing about about the Fed that bugs me. The fact they are quasi-independent and theoretically somewhat insulated from realpolitik isn't a bad thing (though this is not reality, as the current prez appoints the chief, the Senate confirms, and Congress regularly grills/strong-arms them).

It's the "wholly owned and beholden to interests of private banks" thing, and "refusing to enforce prudent lending standards" thing, and "manipulating short rates to blow bubbles" thing that really gets to me. The Fed's charter explicitly places bank interests and so-called "stability" (whatever that's supposed to mean) as paramount above citizen/voter interests.

Yeah, Randy. I think there is a reason why most central banks are semi-independent. They are basically the guys that tell congress that they cannot just print money, they have to earn it or borrow it (from China and Japan in our case). I can only imagine how bad it will get if senate got control of the proverbial printing press. And that goes for all of them, but especially the republicans :).

"the techno trance channel (which is impossible to sing to)."

Hasn't stopped me from trying...

>It’s the “wholly owned and beholden to interests of private banks” thing, and >“refusing to enforce prudent lending standards” thing, and “manipulating >short rates to blow bubbles” thing that really gets to me.

Agreed, but at the other exreme it is also dangerous for a central bank to have completely fixed and (dare I say) transparent objectives, because it leaves a country vulnerable to currency manipulation, I would think.

If everyone knows that action X will lead to response Y, pretty soon someone will find a way to exploit the system and essentially suck value out of a country's economic engine by blackmailing the central bank. Keeping people guessing and uncertain is part of the central bank's job.

,,, and thanks for the cigar. Is it a cuban one? :)

Well at least National Review has their head on straight....
http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=NDljY2I4YWJjMDdlMjQ0M2M3MzJlMmMyMDQ3ZDJlYTg=

Fannie Mae officials argue that they can provide badly needed liquidity to the mortgage market. But as economist Brian Wesbury pointed out Monday, liquidity is not the real issue. The issue is a lack of information — no one seems to know how much these mortgages are really worth. The best thing the government can do is stay out of the way while the market reprices these securities.

SFWoman,

Thanks! We packed a lot of shampoo/conditioners and two (!) camera tripods. As for the food, I would like to try puffin and smoked lamb, but generally, Iceland food is plenty scary (because of the price) even when you don't know the ingredients!

astrid,

Puffin tastes like fishy duck, not awful but not great. I've not had the smoked lamb. I had divine cod there, believe it or not. The krona isn't insane like it was two years ago, which was when I was there last, so you'll be OK. The geothermally heated municipal swimming pools are great, and are full of really attractive people. I remember alcohol being really expensive, as well as the taxi ride into town.

We packed a lot of shampoo/conditioners and two (!) camera tripods.

Why two?

The problem with tripods is that the good ones are really heavy, owing to the law of physics.

Why not one tripod and one ipod? ;)

all your quote are belong to me.

;)

Launch all ARMs! For great justice!

@astrid

I was in Iceland earlier this year and had a wonderful time. If you like hearty lamb soups, there is no better place for it. The soft serve ice cream, including the ones available at gas stations, was also surprisingly good. There is a duty free shop at Keflavik airport where you can buy alcohol before leaving customs. If you drink, you'll either want to bring your own or stock up there. Credit cards are accepted virtually everywhere, and so there is not much need to exchange for cash krona. And don't forget to drink the water -- which has the benefit of being free and, in my opinion, the best I've tasted so far. Enjoy your trip!

From the National Review article-

"Lenders are making fewer risky loans. Some of the biggest, such as Countrywide Financial, have tapped large lines of credit to cover short-term borrowing needs, announced layoffs, and instituted other cost-cutting measures."

Can anyone imagine if you substituted American Express and/or Master Card for Countrywide? If a card co. had a lowered credit rating I could see merchants refusing to accept them as they would be concerned about possibly not recieving payment for all of the goods/services provided.

Might we widely see one day "Cash Only" no credit cards!?

Cupertino is officially not the bay area anymore.

20% price decline from July06 to July 07!

Might we widely see one day “Cash Only” no credit cards!?

No.

Nearly all cards are issued by banks through the transaction agency. The merchants are guaranteed payment.

You might end up with issuing banks demanding much higher credit standards and even more debit transactions, but the vendors will still take the cards. That part of our merchant system is not going backwards, period. If anything handling cash at the PoS is too costly and rife with real world problems, not the least of which being "evaporation" and tax fraud.

According to DQnews.com

(Sorry, should have included that.)

Cupertino is officially not the bay area anymore.

20% price decline from July06 to July 07!

The fortress is cracking, Hallelujah, Hallelujah!

Cupertino is officially not the bay area anymore.

Good riddance!

Seriously, though, down 20% is a HUGE drop.

Also, the bottom of the Menlo Park sales dropped out. None of the unicorporated and east of 101 houses are selling worth a damn, as the median price in Menlo Park jumped 41% YoY for July :

MENLO PARK 36 $1,107,500 $782,500 41.53%

sfbb,

Just wait until the effects of the frozen jumbo loan market show up in the sales stats...by that point, NONE of the Bay Area will be in the Bay Area any longer!

@patrick

Here is an example of the kind of info you can get on a property from a common source like PropertyShark (some data removed by me with '***' so I don't violate my license agreement).

This example also shows that it's very hard to know who's a FB. You'd think they have 10% equity with an ARM due to reset. That may be true but the house is actually owned by Mummy, the 2nd name on the title, and the young couple there can afford to (and have) pulled their listing and rent it out in perpetuity if need be. (And thus, stickiness rears it's ugly head yet again).

Document Details
APN ************
Event ID ************
Document rec status
Document type Grant Deed/Deed of Trust
Document number raw *****
Title co name California Land Title Co.
Date keyed 6/16/2005
Tax transfer ****
Transaction type Resale
Full/partial flag Full transfer value
Event date 6/9/2005
Sale amount $1,000,000
1st party ***,Heidi *
2nd party ***,Kristy *
Owner address ****
Mill Valley, CA
94941
Lender # 1 Pro30 Fndg
Loan amount # 1 $650,000
Rate type # 1 Variable
Lender # 2 Pro30 Fndg
Loan amount # 2 $250,000
Rate type # 2 Fixed

sfbb:

That is a truly beautiful page!

(Noticing my old stomping grounds in Emeryville are -25.56%)

http://www.dqnews.com/ZIPCAR.shtm

If you go look at the menlo park info in detail, you see that the cheap area had a huge drop of in sales (-32%) and price per square foot dropped by 13%.

The HIGH PRICED area of Menlo Park had increased sales (66%) and a massive median price drop (-32%) and ppsf drop of 15%.

Yet... the consolodated chart says Menlo Park up 46% yoy!

BRUTAL.

From the report:

MOJAVE 4 $179,500 $105,000 70.95%

OMG! Desert bubble!

Hmmm.... it looks like a lot of the data is inconsistant if you go from the overview page to the zipcode page.

I have some problems with the DQNews.

Menlo Park going up 40%? Even South San Francisco going up 7%? OK, the numbers there are just too small to make any statistical difference. We should make it a rule that
1) condos should be reported separately from SFH
2) median should only be quoted if the sample size is larger than, say, 50

Or else, the fact that certain areas are down 20% may be due to more mix of condo sold, and certain areas are up 40% may be due to a higher mix of activities for SFH. Without classifying data according to inventory mix and ensuring a big enough sample size, such data is just garbage in, garbage out (yes yes, I understand most Math-impaired MSM reporters need some "stats" to back up their articles)

Aug DQ news will be really interesting, there will be so many n/a because there won't be any transaction. Or there will be 100%+ jump in median price for most cities, because only cash offers can go through.

Randy,

that's why you need the owner name. It is not perfect, but it is quite amazing how much information you can dig out on the internet.

I found out the loan profile of one of my neighbors, who just purchased a home on a $1M convertible loan, and $2xxK fixed, with about 10% down 2 years ago. Then I found his resume online, just a senior engineer. And since he listed his position at different places, I sort of guestimated whether he hit the jackpot with these companies, nope. Eventually I figured he couldn't carry this house for long, and he listed his house on the market about 3 months ago, lucky for him, he got rid of it, making almost no money on the deal.

Armed with a bit more google skill, you can really zoom in on someone's profile. In your example, if I look up homes owned by the mommy on propertyshark (a feature only available for NY so far), I will have a better idea of the situation of the owners.

If a buyer wants to be really nasty, he can even pay $50-70 for some web detectives to dig up the borrower's credit scores, employment history, previous addresses, marriage history, etc. Most of our personal information, unless guarded fiercely to begin with, is already out there.

I don't put a whole lot of stock in online insta-petitions, but this one speaks directly to this blog (and may have been started by someone here?). It's at least worth a click:

http://www.petitiononline.com/bailout/petition.html