patrick.net

I had a guy working for me that went bankrupt. He ran up his cards big time during the process. He bragged about it. His lawyer told him to do it. His lawyer told him he just had to make sure it was all expendables, like dinners, bartabs, etc. The guy went nuts with it.

I fired his unethical stealing parasitic loser ass at the first opportunity.

I fired his unethical stealing parasitic loser ass at the first opportunity.

Yeah. He should have taken you to French Laundry.

Stolen food leaves a bitter aftertaste.

Stolen food leaves a bitter aftertaste.

It is not stolen. More like appropriated. :)

If you ask me, that portion of debt should not be discharged. That behavior is borderline fraud.

I wonder what the seniors will think about having their savings devalued just to bail out no-good youngsters.

Actually, I believe that if you are unlucky and get someone thorough, the bankruptcy court will review all of your expenditures. If they see that you ran up a massive joyride right before declaring bankruptcy, I believe they can do very nasty things to you.

As you can see, there are specific provisions about luxury goods. The judge also considers unusual buying patterns just prior to a bankruptcy.

http://bankruptcy.lawyers.com/Credit-Card-Debt-In-Chapter-7-Bankruptcy.html

As you can see, there are specific provisions about luxury goods. The judge also considers unusual buying patterns just prior to a bankruptcy.

Post ended up in moderation, can someone please release the link?

Donald,
section 8 !=rent control
housing projects != rent control

Man why cant you just admit in a simple sentence "oh yeah I was wrong about rent control its not federal, my bad" instead of mentioning unrelated programs?

Because you are simply trolling here which is NOT the same as true discourse.

I would sure hate to be an FB with a HUGE depreciating asset and be hopeful of any kind of federal aid. It will probably turn out the loan caps are too low for most of them, or you have to live in certain minority dominated zip codes or be a single mother or they wont help you. sux to be an FB federal aid or not - no one is gonna pay down their principal.

I would sure hate to be an FB with a HUGE depreciating asset and be hopeful of any kind of federal aid.

Er... it is fine if the house is at least an asset. I thought we have already decided that a very-leveraged house with negative cash-flow nothing but an ass-hat. :)

Did anyone see Closing Escrow?

I thought housing never goes down.

I thought this board just consisted of JBRs who will be priced out forever.

I thought that through capitalism you can create wealth from nothing indefinitely.

I thought wages were supposed to spring up to a level to support the new housing values.

I thought we were in a new purely service based economy in which value was added purely by people moving titles, and loan papers back and forth.

I thought realtors were the new professionals on the same par as doctors and lawyers.

I thought there was no way the subprime meltdown wouldn't spread to other sectors.

I thought gold was going to be at $1000 per ounce as the dollar devalued and people preserved wealth in houses.

I thought the worst case scenario was for a soft landing.

Now they are looking for a shoulder to cry on? Well OK then, but I think some serious apologies are in order.

wouldn't = would

Malcom says: I thought gold was going to be at $1000 per ounce as the dollar devalued and people preserved wealth in houses.

Well, we might see gold go up here if the Fed starts aggressively cutting rates. $1000/ounce might be a bit high.

But the rest of the irony I tend to agree with. :)

Rent control is strictly government placing a limit on the amount of rent a landlord can charge. Section 8 is based on average rents for an area and is a voluntary program, and housing projects are not private units, therefore neither one falls under the definition.

Some rent controls are useful as they eliminate bait and switching. These types of rent controls don't interfere with the market price of rent, but freeze or regulate rent increases. These rules benefit both sides as they prevent lowballing which hurts the landlords who want to act ethically, and they prevent sudden drastic rent increases to renters who would be forced to waste money moving when a landlord wants to play games with pricing instead of just being upfront about what the rent is.

StuckInBA Says

Since ... TOS know very well that we were right in being a bear, they have already resorted to the other scare tactics.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

1- ha ha ha ... being right in being bear ??? says who ??? under what criteria ?? where are the earned / saved $$ ???

how about wishful thinking ??

2- Are you better off than people who bought a long time ago ??

Hint: no...

3- You have not even fully implemented your plan so how do you know that you are better off ??

hint: how about waiting 3-5 years after buying your dream house for pennies on the dollar with a wonderful jumbo 30 year loan @ 8%-9% before bragging....

Bottom Line:

4- I posted the % returns realized by RE in CA over the past 5 years (2002-2007) and the losses realized last year (2007)...

So tell me, how many -2% do you need to erase 20 % of +80%.....

Conclusion:

5- In a few weeks, Goldman will report

== > we will see the extend o the red ink due to subprime....it is all about psychology of fear... what if the number are not that scary....

6- In a few weeks, Helico ben will lower rates and in a few months, the 200 or so bailouts plans in congress and in the various state capitols will also be reality

== > we will see the impact on your illusory "ARM-reset-ARMEGADON" and foreclosure numbers

7- And even if you are right and we have a big drop in prices, then I am willing to bet 3-1 that you will not buy then out of fear of dropping prices…ha ha ha .. it so funny

== > you are simply risk averse, not a contrarian and that makes a whole difference...

Ps:

You are betting on a recession in which you will no lose your job (security) to be in a stronger position to buy…I know that you strongly believe that you are that special, but keep dreaming :-)

TOS said:
4- I posted the % returns realized by RE in CA over the past 5 years (2002-2007) and the losses realized last year (2007)…

So tell me, how many -2% do you need to erase 20 % of +80%…..

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
TOS, you are leaving out inflation (which seems to be running somewhat higher than the federal numbers might indicate at the moment). You have to add inflation to the drop in housing prices if you want to make any meaningful statement.

And if you are getting your -2% from the median--well, we've all been over this. The median is easily skewed. If the jumbo loans are gone, the median may actually drop quite a bit--to something a bit closer to 417K.

So tell me, how many -2% do you need to erase 20 % of +80%…..

________________________________________

Hey TOS you fucktard,

1- Actually not so much.

2- Let's take a simple math example, something you seem to love doing.

3- Start with a home purchased for $1,000,000.

4- Let's say it had a typical appreciation of 50% to $1,500,000

5- How much of a percent decline from $1,500,000 is needed for the price to get back to the original $1,000,000?

6- That would be 33%.

Bottom Line:

7- You see, to achieve the same absolute price decrease as an absolute price increase of $500,000 the percent on the way down is significantly less than on the way up.

Conclusion:

==> Once again, you have proven yourself a fuckass "looser."

HelloKitty,

Don't even bother with Donald. He is such a nimrod that he can't even put up a coherent argument. He needs some schoolin' in the art of trollin'

He needs some schoolin’ in the art of trollin’

That am not true! Me am from PRINCETON ELITE SCHOOL OF IVY! Watching Hamptons rich ones I am sometimes. Me neighbors am Little Kim and rappers! Mocking you are not anymore the GOLD COAST!!!

I just read something here which is not addressed normally and I think is an important point. There are many people here who seem to think only home prices will change, and everything will be left alone, so they will just sweep in and snatch up bargains. The most annoying thing is when people use the term 'below market'. Guys there is no such thing.

It is the changes themselves that are the final trigger in the price slide. Loans are now harder to get, and yes, incomes are already very visibly sliding. If you have a way to shield yourself that is the best strategy. People are going to lose jobs, there will be fewer buyers, and prices (market prices) will drop accordingly. I do not expect to see the teaser rate, no qualifying, no money down loans available, especially when you are buying from a cash strapped bank who needs to move rotting inventory. Cash is going to be king again. That's what I have really been looking forward to.

Brand,

:)
Sounds like Mongo from Blazing Saddles.

Anyone interested in having a TROLL FREE discussion, feel free to at my blog. I've revived it from the dead, and I'll be focusing mainly on housing again (and not the cult second life virtual kind either). Email me if you wish to author also. I'm not trying to steal from Patrick.net, just provide a mature place to have discussions free of the noise.

Malcolm,

In that way, sadly, TOS is surprisingly right on one of her scare tactics - the housing downturn will likely lead us into recession. I think this will happen no matter what the Fed Funds rate is, and no matter what cockamanie bailout gets passed. You know what, despite all the scare tactics of bailout etc from nimrods like Donald, they will be too little too late. The slow-moving train that is the housing market (and economy in general) takes time to turn in either direction.

The result will be job loss. And let's not forget that despite the heavily massaged jobs data the government spews out every month, we are at the tail end of a so-called "jobless recovery." There are fewer jobs to start with, especially in manufacturing, and even in high tech, compared with the late 1990's, and there will be fewer, as most of the new jobs were in RE-related industries, and those are disappearing in front of our eyes.

By the time most economists agree we are in a recession, housing will have already bottomed out. If you have the means to buy at that low point (a job, a 20% or more down payment, good credit), you will be in good shape.

Totally agree. I feel like it is 1991 all over again. This is going to be bad, and I literally have real fears about unrest in this country. Likewise I believe that it is a non-issue to discuss bailouts seriously because the problem is so massive there is nothing that can be done. It is a trainwreck. We don't have the resources to stop what is coming even if it were right to do so.

What I really disagree with the TOS point of view is the effect of a 3 times monthly mortage payment verses renting, and the inflexibility of being stuck in a house which can't be sold. A lot of these types of honest people are engineers who seem to relocate to a different part of the country with each job change. They will find themselves in a vicious catch 22, they are out of work and can't afford the house, and can't accept a job because they own a house and can't move. They can't rent it. It is a miserable scenario.

TOS :

You are so right ! But your argument is incomplete. You forgot the part about being "my family on the street when the landlord throws me out".

I have already declared that you are the Aristotle of this blog. I cannot even dare to argue with you.

randy, do you know any other way to deal with people who don’t agree with you than calling them a ‘troll’?

At least we did not call you a commie. :)

Bubble bloggers are the real communists. Congress should shut them down. They're artificially holding down the prices by posting confusing mathematical treatise like the difference between Median and Mean. You want mean? There is nothing meaner than making fun of the math on an exploding NINJA ARM!

Time to call it quits...Being responsible, both financially and morally, in this world financial charade equates to being broke in the long run as wealth is transfered to debtors....

If anyone has a better idea, I would surely like to know.

Donald,

There is no free bailout ... read this:

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/kasriel/2007/0824.html

THERE'S NO SUCH THING AS A FREE BAILOUT
by Paul L. Kasriel
Senior Vice President & Director of Economic Research
The Northern Trust Company
August 24, 2007

Is Patrick.net a bubble blog? I thought it is a reality parser.

Well said PermaRenter.

So on top of being about 2 standard deviations below mean intelligence, Donald also seems to have skipped the lectures on "Irony" during his elite Ivy League education.

Seriously, that site is scarry.

Not as "scarry" as your asscrack after it's been reamed by the upcoming ARM reset on the home you overpaid for in the "Gold Coast."

Seriously dude, you can't play with the big boys. Go home and read up a little on economics, housing, and basic grammar. Maybe you should stop using your "reading time" trying to "find Waldo."

Donald,

Your "witty" repartee is killing me. First it's gays in SF, now it's the West Coast falling into the ocean? Man, get some originality, douchebag.

Actually, it was I who wished that PA could saw off NJ at the border and drop it into the ocean. In case you're still struggling on Mapquest, the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania is the state to your immediate west. We don't worry much about earthquakes there. But maybe you didn't have geography at Princeton? Or did you and JFK both get jaundice at the same time and drop out in the first semester?

Right after I bought my house, a tear down sold for $1.1 million in about 2 weeks.

And thus the official peak of the "Gold Coast" real estate market was declared. It's been downhill from there!

skibum Says:
And thus the official peak of the “Gold Coast” real estate market was declared. It’s been downhill from there!

Speaking of stuff rolling downhill, I wonder if the "gold" coast got its name because the sewage from Manhattan washes up over there...

SP

>The top Democrat and Republican on the House Financial Services Committee >said investors in mortgage bonds should be liable for deceptive loans made by >banks.

In a thread long gone, I found myself joining the scolding of democrat Barney Frank, based on the above snippet from a news report.,

Tonight, I saw the aforementioned Frank in an interview on PBS, and I have to say that he came across as a much more sensible person than the above characterization seemed to imply.

I'm starting to think that the characterization above was not quite correct. I went back to the source

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aeC9v1sgMqoI

and read the fine print. It appears that Frank was really referring to the "packagers" and "securitizers" of the MBS bonds, and not the retail investors that might end up buying them.

Back to tonight's interview, the transcript does not seem to be up yet, but one of his causes was that hedge fund managers should be pay income tax and not the lower capital gains tax on their earnings from the funds (also known as "carry", short for "carried interest", of the fund).

Here's an older transcript hat shows some of Frank's thoughts on MBS:

http://www.pbs.org/nbr/site/onair/transcripts/070621b/

All in all, I think I won't rely on Bloomberg.com for an accurate characterization of what some Democrat might or might not stand for,

[please unmoderate if necessary, there are two web links in here]

Sir Donald said :
I have been predicting this bailout well before Bush’s Rose Garden Speech. Prices will not come down by more than 5%. From what I hear, Florida and California are the 2 hardest hit states in the housing market. Here in “slimey” NJ, things are better.

That 5% prediction is senseless. For each area exactly are you making the prediction of less than 5% ? From which price ? Median or same-house ?

I was at an open house this weekend. The asking price was 740K. The realtor said it's a great deal because last year he sold 3 such houses (exact same plan, in the same community) ... each over 790K. This is in a very good school district in BA.

Figure out if the drop in price is more than 5%.

You guyz worry 2 much about the bail out... WHo is going to get bailed out?? People who can qualify for FHA loans... ie. nobody who:

1. has much negative equity
2. cannot substantiate income
3. has way too screwed up credit.
4. is not in a jumbo product above limits.
5. owner occupied homes only

Even if they relax the standards a bit, the average FB has so much F that he still won't qualify. Further point: by the time this thing gets organized, prices will have dropped through another 2 quarters, and we are just ramping that up now... sales have fallen below the floor here in PHX-metro, so even the stupid median price will probably begin dropping next quarter.

Bush is a tard, look at the other proposal: cut the tax bill for loan forgiveness , short sales/ foreclosures for a period of time. What do you think happens at the end of that time period? Everybody then has an added incentive to walk right then and there, rather than gamble and hold on longer.

They don't even seem to understand that it is the BORROWER that is subprime, not the LOAN!

Expect Ben to cut rates at least .5% and may 1%... But don't cry too much over that either... so a few percent of FBers manage to hold on after their interest rate adjustments because that blunts the edge of the sword a bit... so what? The rest of the world knows damn well that inflation will rise, and the long bond rate will not stay down afterwards. At the same time that ARM's are becoming extinct, fixed rates will climb!

Holy unintended consequences Batman! Back to the batcave...