patrick.net

Let's go into inflation mode strategies.

It is sad that a fine businessman like Kennith Lay was prosecuted to death while our currency is allowed to be destroyed. Which is a greater crime?

salk,

You really need to re-read some history books, man. Or look up some post-war maps. Most of the post-war "christian Europe" was either under NATO influence or neutral.

Thanks, HeadSet :)

Here is something interesting: After the initial "Bernanke pop" 15min ago, CFC has now retraced back to its pre-pop value. Several other stocks are taking a similar turn, although less dramatically so.

Is it a good time to buy home Builder stocks? They started going up.

"Is it a good time to buy home Builder stocks? They started going up."

Yes, you do that. We'll be right behind you.

Headset,

LOL! Yeah the NAHB sentiment is at 22 year low. Even Cheerleader in Chief David Seiders doesn't see "a gradual recovery" until the 3rd. qtr. of NEXT year (but I'd sure hate to get left at the station).

Justme,

Your welcome! But let's see if the converse is true. I predict the Dow will fall back in a few days to just under 13,500.

Headset,

OT (and not nearly as depressing) but had you heard about the Russian's new "suck bomb"? I'm told it's as potent as a nuke but is completely conventional.

I’m told it’s as potent as a nuke but is completely conventional.

So if it is use a nuclear response should be justified.

What's your prediction of the FED rate by the end of this year? I think it will be around 3.75-4.00%.

I'd heard there was a "show of force" right around the time a "Bear" flirted with Swedish air space. Some of the footage was pretty impressive. It looks like an internal fuel tank (fitted on C-130's) for extended range and dropped with a parachute. So it falls to earth quite gently and then creates a fireball the size of Manhattan.

My question is, if you're simply using "para-drop" weapons deployment how accurate can it be? Wind direction, ground track, air speed? A lot of variables there. I mean, a loadmaster with a safety line shoves the damn thing out' the back?

DinOR,

No I haven't. Are you setting me up as the straight man for a joke?

I got out of the Air Force in '95, so that was the last of any intel briefings for me. I can tell you this though, anyone who thinks we would not have responded to a Warsaw Pact invasion of Western Europe with nukes is mistaken. The Soviet conventional forces held too much of a numerical advantage for us to take on otherwise. We even had systems in place, such as F-16s and artillery with tactical nuke capability.

Yes, rate will be at 3.75%, no one will go into foreclosure, bank runs will end, CountryWide will be at 40 and my mom will be there with a beer in each hand.

DiNor,

It's not new. Thermobaric weapons have been around since 60s. Russia claims it developed the most powerful one, but it is still far cry from the nukes - its yield is only 44T of TNT (0.3% of Hiroshima's bomb).

Headset,

I wish I were. They're calling it "The Father of all Bombs".

ARRRGHHH. They cut the interest rate by .5%

Stock market soars.

AARRGHHH.

I spent most of yesterday and this morning selling off my positions in expectation of the .25% cut and resulting plummet.

ARRRRGHHH.

I can't believe they cut 50 bp's! Look at the dollar go!

Bork,

From what I understand, that's true. It's an old technology that's been dusted off and re-worked but the Reuters article said it is "a conventional bomb with a strength similar to a nuclear blast".

The one we "dusted off" in 2003 was nick-named "The Mother of all Bombs". From the footage I've seen it doesn't appear to have any kind of tracking or guidance device whatsoever? Just gravity... and wherever it happens to land. If the blast effect is what they're saying it is, I guess, how "accurate" does it need to be?

So how much lower will online banks pay that are now paying 5% APY? Any guesses??

For any on this web site that actually ARE an FB or know an FB - tell them to refinance as soon as ANY downward motion occurs in the 30 year fixed. I know they have been diverging (the Fed funds rate and 30 year fixed rates) but this is just too big a move for lending institutions to miss. There was already a lot of liquidity and getting mortgages and holding (not just being mortgage servicers) will be the new order of the day. This will be a brief window in wich people can refi or (possibly) sell. Starting next year, plan for crazy inflation followed by a stern Fed.
How about some prognosticating?
End of 2007: Rate wiil be 4.5% (doing .5% early obviates the need for .75% total)
End of 2008: Rate will be 6%, recession will be declared and will be a huge plank in any candidates presidential election bid. Just by sheer number of people affected the housing crisis will drop out of the media in favor of the stagnant wages, high cost of goods (especially energy), and job loss old saws.
End of 2009 Rate will be 8% and world recession will be firmly announced.
End of 2010 Rate will be 11% Peple will begin to clamor for war against Iran due to high energy costs.
End of 2011 Rate will be 13% By now the Countrywides and other banks that were able to put off bankruptcy earlier will start failing like mad. The magnitude of the "it was just like the S&L cirsis" will be shocking. Talk of socializing medicine will get killed as the years-now-gone argument of "we are too rich a nation to not insure everyone's health" will be replaced by people clamoring for work.
End of 2012 Housing will trough. Expect discount of 35-50% off peak value taking peak to be Summer of '06. By now, with any luck, the US will have moved away from the auto industry as the backbone for our labor force (and advertising dollar), and trains and buses will carry far, far more people as gas has risen to over $5 a gallon. Gas costs and alternative energy should allow for a net export trade balance for the first time in how long?
End of 2013 By now, things may have become so bad that congress may even have the political will to tackle the entitlement problems. Medicare and social security benefits will change: retirement age will be raised, payout rates will be cut, taxes will be raised.

Phew - hows that spin based on Mr Bernanke's rate cut?

DinOR,

A Tu-95 "Bear" can carry at most a 30 ton payload. Even a small atomic weapon has a yield of at least a THOUSAND tons of TNT. I wonder what explosive they use that could so much more powerful than TNT.

About that Tu-95. We could feel the vibration from those contaprops if we flew within 2 miles of that thing. It must have been hell on the crew. Also. that plane carried defensive missiles operated by a dedicated crewmember that could outrange anything carried by an F-16. That is, an F-16 sent to intercept would be detected and fired upon before the F-16 was in range to fire its own missiles.

"my mom will be there with a beer in each hand."

San Miguel's, no doubt.

Headset, even your great Conservative icon Pat Buchanon has stated that the US LOST WW2 and that Europe was lost to the Communists. Look at an up-to-date map today. Count all those countries that were under Communist dictatorships. After Germany carved up 25 million of the Red Army, I think Russia said "Enough with our global domination plans". The great General Patton realized this earlier than most.

"San Miguel's, no doubt"

From your mouth to God's ears!

I just think it's silly to not have posted in weeks and then suddenly appear within minutes of the "announced" rate cut. Was anyone really that surprised? What under water Real Estate Partiers don't understand is this is the Fed saying; "We GAVE you your much awaited rate cut, and it didn't help. Will you please crawl back under your rock".

DinOr,

Reuters information is, to put it mildly, incorrect, unless by "similar" they meant "hundreds and thousands times weaker".

Yes, it's a drop-bomb (with parachute) in its current configuration and it's very heavy (7.8 tons of explosives). I can't see how this thing can be useful in a modern warfare when you rely either on high-precision ammunition or bunker busters or (theoretically) nukes which yield much more explosive power, are much lighter and can be mounted on high range rockets etc. So there, except for the fact that Russia can brag that this bomb is "the most powerful conventional bomb ever made" there is not much use for it. Just to remind you, its US equivalent (MOAB) was never used in Iraq because there are no real targets for it.

All you need is sperms.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/house-approves-bill-aiding-mortgage/story.aspx?guid=%7B2506D0AC%2D08AF%2D4C14%2D96FA%2D1433C9AE25BD%7D&dist=hplatest

House approves bill aiding mortgage borrowers

If men realize that it's not necessary that they leave offsprings behind, there will be fewer conflicts on this planet. That one must leave his genes behind is part biological and part social conditioning. After all, most people's lives aren't that great. To bring children to this world without giving them sufficient privileges and wise guidance is in my opinion utterly pointless.

DinOR Says:
had you heard about the Russian’s new “suck bomb”? I’m told it’s as potent as a nuke but is completely conventional.

It is a fuel bomb with an force equivalent of 44kt, like the 11kt MOAB but bigger. The US announced we have 'a bigger bomb' (not kidding, that is what the US military said) that goes to 14kt.

The 'are you effing kidding me' spin on this was that these are "environmentally friendly bombs" because they have no radiation, no chemical- and no bio-contamination. They just vaporize every living thing in the 300-400 meter blast radius and cause deafness for 4 miles. [sarcasm]But other than that, they are just great for the environment. [/sarcasm]

SP

Just goes to show how the influential money elite own this country. They can manipulate to the highest levels of monetary decision makers. It's unfortunate that we live in such a society. But at the end of the day the common working citizen has no power or protection. What they've realized is that without the consumer holding up this fake consumption economy we'll be in a recession within six months. It's not a fix it's prolonging a far worse scenario down the road.

Morally it's a big F" You to other than the wealthiest investor who've lost millions in this credit contraction. I'm disgusted with the working of this countries financial and political power brokers. The message : Save the wealthy banks, hedge funds, and Country Wide's . The whole system is so corrupt.

Well... Looks like Bernanke is saying "Recession is in the bag" right now.

Ugh, what do I do with my savings??? I'm so depressed...

"Ugh, what do I do with my savings???"

Nothing...I think a lot of people are overreacting to this cut...it's not like the funds rate was reduced to 2003 levels (1%)...it's simply back where it was in early 2006.

Good point. But I'm still depressed...

It's a good question though - what should one do if he or she has a big stack of cash from selling of 85% of his/her positions over the weekend?

Ibonds?

Gold futures at $735/oz.
Oil at %81.50/barrel.
Fed Funds Rate dropped 50bp to 4.75%.
Looking forward to a decade or more of inflation: PRICELESS.

Well, it's official. Bernanke is a spineless fucker. He can comfort himself with the realization that he will be remembered as the Fed chairman who will likely have brought about perhaps the worst bout of inflation this country has ever seen.

Bork,

When I was... in the service I was *not an ordinance specialist. I was an avionics guy. I agree, I think the value of such a weapon is questionable at best. Your enemy would need to have an AIR FORCE! for it to be worthwhile. Just imagine dropping that thing on an airfield as fuel, weapons, liquid oxygen/nitrogen "get in the mix". Now THAT would be pyro's wet dream!

"Don't you worry none young captain, we'll have this place cleaned up for you in a jiffy"

sfbubblebuyer,

Was that a play on Gary "15% is in the bag" Watts?

“my mom will be there with a beer in each hand.”

Only the beer will be much more expensive!

We GAVE you your much awaited rate cut, and it didn't help. Will you please crawl back under your rock.

DinOR, that idea occurred to me. Then I dismissed it as rationalizing. Then you posted, and I feel a bit better. Am I grasping at straws?