patrick.net

Serpentor says

Much less potential for gains but you are sure to make SOME money unless stock price drops to 0.

Yes, you can make some money but they are adjusted based on some conditional performance.

def:
Restricted stock, also known as letter stock or restricted securities, refers to stock of a company that is not fully transferable until certain conditions have been met. Upon satisfaction of those conditions, the stock becomes transferable by the person holding the award.

I think we're talking about the same thing

Owned

At what point do you finally realize it is not possible to know the future? By the way, did you all know the Titanic is unsinkable?...oh wait a minute....

lets just keep that train of thought going and ask: why won't rent in Fremont go down? Just because a scenario sounds too terrible to YOU doesn't mean it won't happen. 50% of $1.5mil is still $750k, much more then a tract home in Fremont is going to cost ie $200-300k.

Nothing would surprise me at this point. There may be unprecedented government intervention, propping prices up forever or there may be half-assed intervention, or they run out of bullets and everything goes to shit. Lets keep in mind if mark to market wasn't suspended, every single bank who holds a mortgage business would be insolvent right now.

And why would these rich investers want to buy homes that would drop, as you say "as much as 20%" if they can safely make money in a bank account? Who's going to manage and maintain these individual homes? that sounds pretty damn expensive and labor intensive to me.

Serpentor says

lets just keep that train of thought going and ask: why won’t rent in Fremont go down?

Two years back you could not find this kind of rental below $3000 in Monta Vista neighborhood. Yes, rental price has gone down already.

it won't require an all out collapse to cause 50% decline. It just means price going back to pre-bubble levels just like its neighbors. Not very hard to believe since the world operated fine before the bubble.

Serpentor says

it won’t require an all out collapse to cause 50% decline. It just means price going back to pre-bubble levels just like its neighbors. Not very hard to believe since the world operated fine before the bubble.

That would burst all the "get rich quick" myths regarding the Bay Area many have been led to believe.

Quick poll: Anyone who invested in re during the past 2 years are glad they did it? If so, why?

A quick back of the envelope REO ratio calculation for Lafayette; there is approximately 1 house in some state of foreclosure (NOD, NOTS, bank-owned) for every 2 homes for sale (56 to 115). That amount of distress should help keep the sellers honest...

Looks to me that even the best got hit pretty hard... avg decline near $1M in HB.

http://www.pacificariptide.com/pacifica_riptide/2010/08/more-housing-bubble-value-wiped-away-assessment-declines-slow-in-2009.html?source=patrick.net#banner-inner

The figures in the reports imply that higher-value properties were in faster decline, as can be seen in Atherton's numbers. In 2008, the total assessed reduction in values was almost $121 million on 131 properties in the wealthy town. In 2009, only 59 properties were reassessed, but the reduction was even larger at $125 million. Hillsborough, the other small and wealthy enclave in the county, tells the same story: 2008 saw 164 properties reassessed downward by $106 million, but in 2009, 124 properties were dropped by $148 million...

From Another parcel tax may be coming for Lafayette School District
Lafayette residents voted in 2007 to increase the district's current parcel tax from $132 to $313, with 3 percent annual increases.
Residents of the Acalanes Union High School District pay $301 yearly for two parcel taxes, both approved within the past year.
By my estimate, these folks are still 'underpaying' on their parcel taxes (though the 3% annual increase is impressive).

Serpentor says

Price to income is the key.

Interest rates are ~half what they were 10 years ago . . . that really helps the "affordability" part.

lending standards have tightened up. Interest rates won't stay low forever.

Serpentor says

As to whether it will drop to 1995 levels? I don’t know because I don’t have income/price levels back to those levels. I do know that back in 1997 when I came to the area, the economy was roaring, people were getting bonuses left and right, interns were getting free cars, furnish apts, and a fat salary. I don’t think “house price to income” ratio dropping down to 1998 would be so hard to imagine, in fact it is inevitable.

All thanks to investor money from VCs from 1998-2000. To the tune of $150B made many folks feel rich. But then by mid 2000 to 2001 it pretty much dried up and so went the salaries and bonus. There was too much money chasing too few good ideas.

You will find details on PWCmoneytree.com Left hand side.. Historical Trend Data.

Cvoc13 says

I disagree, I think we will in fact see 1997 or back to 1993 type prices in all of these areas. Might take until 2014 or so, but when the trickle down goes up to those 6 figure incomes types and knocks them down. Now of course there are PRIME properties, one off's I am not talking about those those are the exception not the rule. I do in fact expect to major declines as I have said before why. But what they heck we all have our own thoughts, and frankly none of us has a crystal ball (I don't anyway) But I feel strongly at least.

Wow - talk about delusional. What the hell was wrong with these people?

The tiger moms will take flamethrowers and burn down homes until the demand makes the prices go back up again.