patrick.net

“I laugh at bubble bloggers,”

After you settle down from the knee-slapping belly laughing, are you going to go out and purchase a new residence or investment property?

Gee, why not?

The article (thanks lunapark) does point out one important fact. This community is oriented towards value investing.

I am surprised by the positive tone of the articles towards us. But I feel less important now. We are no longer causing the bubble to burst ? We are just skeptics ? Not gloom and doom guys who want the world to go down in flames ? How dare they call us realists !

@skibum,

If Mr. Lanning finds Patrick so "unbalanced" in his approach to covering the bubble I suppose he won't mind if we post at sfhomeblog.com?

Yeah, fat chance of THAT happening? Well actually two chances, Slim and None (and Slim just left town).

StuckinBA,

I don't "feel" marginalized by... any level of mainstream acceptance. And more than just saying "we're a value crowd" I think it goes further than that. I mean so many of the phrases Diana Olick and others have "grafted" from here speak more to "the investment has to make sense" than anything!

Loans that make sense.

Price to Rent ratios that make sense.

Price to Income ratios that make sense.

Appraisal and lending standards that make sense.

If it were just about "value investing" the ING conf. call is starting in about 45 minutes!

Is Alan Parson’s Project more 70s or 80s?
Wasn't "Eye in the Sky" about the Fed chairman?

DinOR :

Yes, it is more than value investing. More like rational investing.

I was only kidding about feeling less important. I am so used to being hated that I cannot even tolerate an ounce of love !

StuckinBA,

Good points. I couldn't care less about gettin' love (especially the REIC kind) or that I've been so hated for so long? What we WOULD like credit for, is being RIGHT!

Where does Matt Lanning come off saying "Patrick hasn't been right about anything"? Come again? What *haven't* we been right about? In some cases our predictions haven't been dire enough!

How about a new thread? I have always wanted to have a discussion about a Real Estate discontinuity. Something that fundamentally changes the market. It has been a theory of mine that most people in the Bay Area hate the congestion and high housing prices. Given the chance to live close enough to the Bay Area to get access to entertainment, dining, and culture but far enough to pay reasonable prices for housing and eliminate traffic, that many would opt out to areas like Napa. Telecommuting and the virtual office should make this possible. Stubbornly this has not happened. Ideas?

Case-Shiller Index numbers came out today. To sum up Robert Shiller's comments: the last time it was worse than this was 1991 and declines are accelerating. Other highlights, Miami, which had the highest index at one point, just passed LA on the way down. Will be interesting to see if Cleveland and Detroit have turned a corner or if they have more to fall (both are under 120). Stumptown is still positive, but the SF Bay Area fell 0.4% from June to July. I think I would sell my depreciating asset if it wasn't my home....

@DinOR,

Thanks for the "McAlbatross" (tm) props. It sure looks like I'm going to get a ton of mileage outta that one!

It is pretty hard for GM to compete with auto makers in countries where the work force all has nationalized health care.

I will buy a Cadillac if my wife allows.

American cars are not that bad.

Case-Shiller always provides a treasure trove of material. Futures are now trading up to four years out. The crystal ball shows a 24% decline in the SF Bay Area (SF, San Mateo, Marin, Alameda, and CC counties). Throw in some inflation and you have about a 36-40% decline in the next four years. Ay caramba! Here is a link to the entry on Socketsite. I know that this shouldn't be shocking (as I carry around Randy's Shiller graph in my wallet), but it always throws me for a loop to see the financial markets in action.

American cars are not that bad.

Completely disagree. You must not use rental cars very much. Unless US automakers ship off the bottom of the barrel to the rental companies, the US cars I've driven consistently suck. Crummy engines, mediocre mileage, chintzy interiors, horrible ergonomics. The list goes on and on. The "best" US car we've rented was a Jeep Cherokee in Salt Lake City - even that was crappy.

Duke,

O.K. I'm a sport. I already telecommute (Portland area) but why stop there! If I "could" I'd have a NV address and a (702) number!

@skibum,

What made it more credible is that Carolyn Said had free run of the entire glossary yet managed to select the very definitions I would have my damn self!

Serial re-fi, loanowner, all the ones that are the most pivotal in understanding our position!

Mark Wolfe, the group’s executive director, called on the Bush administration to immediately release money from the government’s Low Income Home Energy Program, commonly known as LIHEAP, to help poor families pay their heating bills as well as cover past-due high cooling bills from the summer.

This drives me crazy. When my family could not afford to heat our house, we did not heat it. We have never cooled our house. It is maddening that we subsidize everything.

You must not use rental cars very much.

We rented a town car on our Sedona trip. It was not too bad. It even had parking sensors. :)

This drives me crazy.

Ron Paul. Ron Paul. Ron Paul.

DinOR :

She even included a link to the complete glossary ! So people can even find NAAVLP in there.

And yes, "Loanowner" really captures it well.

As an aside, the link is for an old thread (no 63) when MarinaPrime was in full form. He turned out wrong about so many things. Did Peter P or HARM get their sushi for winning the bets ?

I miss MarinaPrime. He should get a troll award.

I used to be a proud advocate for GM. I proudly boasted about my Chevy Monte Carlo. Andi criticized those that drove foreign cars. Well when she hit 100k, you wouldnt want this car if I gave it to you. Everything was breaking. Pops who drove a Nissan after decades of GM product, warned me. Now drive German. I am so impressed I feel like a sucker for buying into the "Buy American" jingoism. This has an exponential characteristic because now I seek out European manufacturers for all of my prospective purchases. If I cant trust the great American GM product, what American product can I trust?

One glossary entry we "might" not be able to take credit for though is "MEW". I think either the analyst at Merrill or the gal Chas. Schwab coined that phrase. However! We can certainly take credit for p-o-p-u-l-a-r-i-z-i-n-g it!

(Select) German cars have a soul. So do some Swiss watches. (I mean the mechanical ones, preferrably manual-wound.) ......

Old american cars are good.

Did you guys buy Halo 3?

So find another fool like before
Cause I aint gonna live anymore believing
Some of the lies while all of the signs are deceiving

A Topnotch 69 Camero will still fetch a big $$$$ at auctions...A far cry from say 10 years ago.

The most prized cars in Japan by young hiphop crowd are Lowrider Impalas! Japanese LR mags are a trip...

In Europe I seen vintage Vetts and other go 'old muscle cars bought by the rich...

I guess being 'White Trash' driving the General Lee is chic in Paris.

ThomasP

It used to crack me up seeing young Japanese men driving big American cars along their very very narrow roads. Anything to be a rebel I guess...

ThomasP,

It's probably for the same reason why Germans love David Hasselhoff.

The guys at the site formerly known as Paperdinero are excellent at slicing and dicing the Case-Shiller data. Here is a chart overlaying the current downturn on the one from the nineties.

Also, I am not Peter Christiansen of South San Francisco. Will the real Peter C. please come forward.

# salk Says:
If I cant trust the great American GM product, what American product can I trust?

um... American debt? Oh, sorry, never mind. That doesn't look so good no more. :-)

SP

If I cant trust the great American GM product, what American product can I trust?

How about computers? Ever buy a PC with a processor made by a company other than Intel, AMD, Motorola, or IBM?

Home appliances are another strong point for American products. Check out your Consumer Reports buyer's guides....brands like Whirlpool have far better reliabilty numbers than trendy foreign brands like Bosch and Fisher & Paykel.

Hey Peter, thanks a lot for the topic -

now if visiting, can Americans discuss amongst with Canadians why publications from the US still carry higher prices in Canada despite parity and the free trade agreement?

While it is hurting the film and lumber industries, it is making vegetables and Porsche Carreras cheaper. advantage = even.

Can we permanently export Brian Mulroney to Florida?

tsusiat, how is the market up there? I am still dreaming about moving to Canada. :)

Vancouver Island is my favorite place on earth, although my wife prefers Vancouver.

I think the 21st Century belongs to Canada, Russia, and Australia.

Russia is the only resource-rich country with the means to protect itself though.

Did you guys buy Halo 3?

With the recent surge of MSFT, is my hero #1 in wealth again?

Hey Peter -

the market churned all summer, a lot of sales before the pre-approvals ran out, but surprisingly/not surprisingly, all the gains happened in the spring. There is a stalemate now, prices are up this year, volume is up, but the situation seems quite edgy, as despite increased activity, inventories have not gone down much. Reminds me of the atmosphere on this blog back in late 2005. The local housing blogs are inundated with calls back and forth on what is happening. Nobody is convincing anybody of anything, as far as bulls and bears are concerned, but if the US slips into recession, only a flying carpet is going to be able to lift the market higher, in my opinion.

Maybe you can get your Vancouver Island property in about 3-4 years for a nice deal. If so, hopefully we can meet up and have a beer sometime. I won't bother suggesting sushi because nothing too great around here, just SunKus quality is on offer.

Some good blogs to check for the current housing climate are in the blogroll on my page. I recommend Househunt Victoria and Victoria's Truth for the skeptical point of view - while maybe Vibrant Victoria for the industry viewpoint.

Ciao.

http://datashaping.com/house.shtml
How much could I ask for this house?

Maybe you can get your Vancouver Island property in about 3-4 years for a nice deal. If so, hopefully we can meet up and have a beer sometime. I won’t bother suggesting sushi because nothing too great around here, just SunKus quality is on offer.

Hopefully. I like many kinds of food. Victoria is the prettiest place on earth.

I recommend Househunt Victoria and Victoria’s Truth for the skeptical point of view

No Secret, huh? ;)