patrick.net

SQT’s number is hard to evaluate because I didn’t see how many sqft she bought. Obviously $135 is good. My friend paid $146 but brand-new with upgrades and warranties. Bigger houses - you pay less per sqft.

I've noticed this too. We bought a bigger house, almost 3000sqft and per sqft it's a lot cheaper than say a 1500 sqft house. I feel really good about the $135 price because the house is only 4 years old and in great shape. Not tons of upgrades, but good carpet and tile, so I'm happy.

Getting back to investment question. I am not too comfortable putting more money into metals and oil at this point. If any of these get too expensive demand will adjust.

What I want to invest in is agriculture. Not sure where to start. I have ADM and it has kind of done OK. But it's not a pure play. I looked at DBA and it hasn't really done well.

Any ideas ? TIA.

If any of these get too expensive demand will adjust.

Oh really? Did housing demand adjust simply because it got "too expensive?"

I know people who bought in Mountain House and after 6 months of living there, they moved back to the Bay Area.

On the Merc awhile back, they reported that Mountain House does not even have a supermarket, people have to go to Tracy. If that's true, seems like a dead giveaway about the value of the developement.

but, they have trouble explaining why the lending standards were removed and free money was handed to liars just to buy those under-priced houses.

Do they not have trouble explaining anything right? :)

You should be happy. Sacramento - if it is where you want to be (family, jobs) - beats Mountain House by far.

I'm not familiar with Mountain House. We live in an outlying area of Sacto, about a half hour away, called Rocklin. Very nice place. I've lived around here for over 20 years so I know what I'm getting into. ;)

Oh really? Did housing demand adjust simply because it got “too expensive?”

Not sure if you are kidding. But people can live without Gold.

Housing demand first kept increasing just because prices went up - just like a typical ponzi scheme. But eventually the same reason was one of the many factors of the bust. Sales - a measure of demand - have been falling for a long time.

Oil is interesting. It will keep getting expensive. But the rate might slow down. I know it's a lot more complicated and will take far longer to develop comparable alternatives on that scale, but it will eventually happen. Mankind has no choice but to try to survive without oil.

That aside, does anyone have good ideas to invest in agriculture related stocks ?

I have often mentioned about Mountain House. Never been there. But people around me were raving about it as the next hot area. From their description, I formed my opinion - that it's going to crash big time.

I know one who bought there. I also posted about one who backed out. IMHO, he lost deposit but saved his financial future.

These days all the chatter around me is about Windmere, San Ramon. No one is calling it hot, but everyone is raving about the "bargains" they are finding there. Not sure if they are aware that property taxes can be 2% there. Yeah, that's right. Pay 2% on 1M - and not deductible on Fed taxes for many due to AMT. Just remember not to bang your head against the free upgrade of granite countertops when you eventually realize that.

Right now, on bloomberg.com I see these headlines.

--
Nikkei down more than 500 points.
Yen at 110.
Aus central bank says inflation to go up to 3.25%.
Asian central bankers imposing regulation to halt USD's free fall.
Japanese bonds look attractive to JPMorgan. (!!)
--

May you live in interesting times.

Bap33 - I think that's a good gauge of affordability. A house should cost 2x-3x annual income.

If one has a down payment, then subtract that but the amount to get the loan for should be 2x-3x annual income.

Min wage here yields about .... $1000 a month. Annual income would then be $12k a year. 3x that would be $36k. So, at min. wage I could get a place that costs me $36.

At $36k we're talking a piece of land with a trailer on it, and I improve it bit by bit. You can buy a place for that out here and in fact in most of the land area of the US. And that beats the hell out of living in the bushes or homeless shelter or shopping cart in the Bay Area!

FYI - ex-sunnyvale-renter
The homeless now use baby strollers! Yeah, this way they are owner occupied. Don't have to worry about them being taken back by the shop owners!