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Lennar decides to "mothball" new O.C. development; local squatters and meth dealers jubilant


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2007 Nov 15, 5:09am   33,212 views  196 comments

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your free new home!

Wall Street Journal: "Home Builders Opt for Mothballing" (subscription required)
Free re-post

“As the glut of unsold home remains stubbornly high and housing demand slides, home builders face a dilemma: to sell, or not to sell?”

“Lennar Corp., for one, has joined the ‘not to sell’ camp at its development in Orange County, Calif. The Miami company plans to finish building 259 homes, the first phase of a 1,100-unit development in Irvine, but it has decided not to sell any of them until the constrained mortgage market and swollen housing inventory improves.”

“‘We are better off holding off on sales at this asset and not discounting as steeply as the market is discounting right now,’ says Emile Haddad, Lennar’s chief investment officer, who oversees the company’s large West Coast projects.”

“Analysts expect more builders to mothball projects in the coming months, as they decide that the losses from selling homes at huge discounts are greater than the costs of carrying properties on their books.”

“But it’s not an easy decision. Builders are facing increasing pressure from lenders to service their debt and also have overhead expenses to support.”

“‘It’s the next natural step in the evolution’ of the housing downturn, says Nishu Sood, a home-builder analyst at Deutsche Bank. ‘This normally happens during a recession when you just don’t have a base of demand. But it’s like that now. In some of these locations, you just can’t give a house away.’”

“Standard Pacific Corp., of Irvine, Calif., has been offering discounts and other incentives of as much as 25% on certain homes.”

“Lennar CEO Stuart Miller recently called some price cuts ‘unrealistic and maybe even ridiculous.’ ‘The market has just deteriorated more and more. We don’t want to go below a certain floor, and that is the floor of reasonableness,’ Mr. Miller told analysts on a conference call in late September.”

“Lennar’s move in Orange County is unusual in that the company is mothballing homes. Builders typically mothball partially developed or undeveloped land because vacant homes require watching. One alternative would be for builders to sell their land instead, but that market is even more dismal than the one for housing.”

Well, folks, it looks like we may have *finally* gotten something wrong about the housing bubble here at Patrick.net. It has long been a point of consensus here --an unquestioned assumption really-- that homebuilders do not want to be empty-house owners and that banks do not want to be landlords. We have seen many historical examples from past bubbles of homebuilders that can't move product quickly becoming bankrupt former homebuilders. We have also seen recent examples of builders aggressively undercutting underwater FBs and used-house salesmen in order to move product and avoid that fate.

But now, Lennar O.C. comes along and proves us all wrong. Instead of selfishly putting their shareholders financial interests ahead of everything else, they have courageously stepped forward and decided to "take one for the team". I'm sure local FBs are thrilled to hear this news --less competition, fewer comp-undercutting sales, and a courageous homebuilder willing to pony up the monthly carrying costs, property taxes and upkeep on all those empty houses (which must be considerable). What troopers!

I for one, am a little embarrassed, though the thrilling prospect of my brand-new rent & mortgage-free squatter house in Orange County more than compensates for my embarrassment. I'm sure when word gets out among the squatter, criminal & homeless communities, there will be celebration in the streets!

I'm sure those of you bubble-sitters, homeless people, and/or meth lab 'entrepreneurs' who live in or near Orange County are anxious to get all the details and get your piece of the action, so I've collected some useful links here for you:

Wikipedia's Adverse Possession page (the formal legal term for 'squatting')
Cornell's AP site
Homes Not Jails (CA Squatter portal)
Nolo Press's "Neighbor Law: Fences, Trees, Boundaries & Noise"

Discuss, enjoy...
HARM

#housing

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148   justme   2007 Nov 20, 2:23am  

SP,

Yeah, I just saw a dim-witted Corvette owner yesterday that seemed hell-bent on achieving liftoff speed between each red light. And there weren't even any babes watching. For some people, showing off their oil-burning proficiency seems to be second nature, even when there is nobody watching.

149   justme   2007 Nov 20, 2:29am  

Brand,

Just saw your comment that came out of moderation. Yes, an enormous amount of waste of resources (energy and otherwise) stem from men trying to get laid, and the women who are impressed by same display of waste.

150   HeadSet   2007 Nov 20, 2:37am  

There is no other way, unless one thinks it practical to pave the central valley over with solar cell panels.

Actually, we could be only one invention away from a clean electrical source, which could be used to make hydrogen or recharge an advanced battery. If someone would just invent a room temperature superconductor, we could have hydroelectric plants in Canada, Scania, and Russia power the whole norther hemishere. Of course, this would imply efficiencies in use of that power other than lossless transport, such as LED lighting or direct on wheel drive electric cars (16 horsepower). The room temp superconductor would also allow lossless transport from solar panel farms and less loss from the grid in general.

So, someone be a hero and invent that superconductor.

151   justme   2007 Nov 20, 2:51am  

Headset,

Low-T superconductors would be great, but how much would we gain?

Per wikipedia the estimated energy loss in electrical transmission is 7.4% in the US, and 4000 mile lines are technically feasible. I think the real limit is the amount of buildable hydropower sources, and the related environmental impact (not just displaced chinese villagers, but also climate changes and other *real* problems from large dams and water diversions).

My overall point about energy is that we MUST ACT NOW to conserve, rather than engage in hopeful thinking about what we may or may not able extract of alternative energy sources in the future.

152   Glen   2007 Nov 20, 2:59am  

Wow...Fannie and Freddie are getting *spanked* today!

153   DinOR   2007 Nov 20, 3:05am  

"MUST ACT NOW to conserve"

Our elec. bill in the summer avgs. around $50 and $120 in winter. The remarkable thing is that we heat w/ elec. and in emergencies use a kerosene htr. We have a SunHeat "infra-red" htr. and it uses half the electricity of other elec. units. I work at home and my "new" office is about 1 block away. We are working at getting my wife out of the workforce so she will be one less commuter.

I am hardly an environmentalist. In ways (I couldn't care less) so to me it's about waste. Get ready for a big screen TV in every American home burning 2 to 3 times what older sets used. Now THAT'S "progress"!

154   justme   2007 Nov 20, 3:16am  

DinOR,

My hat is off to you. Those numbers are not bad at all. Myself, I clock in at $22/summer and $45/winter, but that is down here in California in a smallish dwelling.

What gets me are the folks that complain about the price of electricity and their $800/month McMansion A/C bill.

155   HeadSet   2007 Nov 20, 3:21am  

justme,

I fully agree on the conserve part. I'm am just hopeful that a a new invention, whether superconductor or something else, will become a feasable alternative when coupled to a more efficent use of energy.

Conservation is probrably a necessity for alternative forms of energy to work.

156   justme   2007 Nov 20, 3:32am  

Headset,

Thank you. I know your heart is in the right place (subjective, I know, :-))

I think there is still hope that printable solar cells, low-T superconductors and other technologies will eventually become feasible and practical, but we cannot hold our breath or stick our head in the Saudi desert sand while we wait for these technologies to arrive.

As you said, conservation is key, even with new technologies arriving. Not many alternative energy forms have the concentrated energy density and practical usage model of petroleum/oil.

157   DinOR   2007 Nov 20, 3:46am  

Wow, $22 in the summer! That's fantastic. I have to keep in mind the actual kw consumption. Remember though, I do work at home so fax machines, computer and Bloomberg do take some power.

The real test comes when my elec. bill does/doesn't go down by the amt. I use at my new 182 s/f office! At our last HOA mtg. sec. lighting came up and I suggested just having the courtyard lights come on intermittently. Thiefs know that their victims are creatures of habit. If the lights are "on" all the time, no one worries about thefts? There's nothing a good thief likes more than predictability. To me, it's about anything to throw a would be thief off balance.

158   justme   2007 Nov 20, 4:19am  

DinOR,

>I have to keep in mind the actual kw consumption.

Good point, I am myself guilty of using dollar amounts as a proxy for energy usage/waste.

Home office energy use:

If your desktop PC is less than 2-3 years old, it is very likely to have power saving modes that can cut the CPU clock frequency in half (roughly) when you are idling or just lightly loading the CPU (evening, nighttime, on the phone,...). You just need to figure out how to enable it. In Intel procecessors, I think it is called SpeedStep, and in AMD processors it is called PowerNow.

Oh, half the frequency means half the power consumption, pretty much exactly.

159   EBGuy   2007 Nov 20, 4:23am  

“The Truth About The Green Car of the Year”
As much as I like bashing the "mild hybrids", riddle me this Batman. Who will save more gallons of fuel per year: the guy who trades in his monster Tahoe for the hybrid Tahoe or Dilbert driving his Civic hybrid instead of the regular version?

160   DinOR   2007 Nov 20, 4:46am  

I'm trying to get in the habit of logging off for good at say 5:00pm (like anyone that worked in an office setting would be expected to do) and only logging back on in the event of an important client call.

Easier said than done. I would also like to have our condo go into basically a shut down mode when we are asleep. I had a few drinks on a Friday and left the stereo on (volume all the way down) overnight and it raised the temp. on top of the unit to over 90 deg!

How many L.E.D clocks/night lights does an ADULT need!? I'm thinking about having everything hooked up to a power strip or just even throwing the breaker or having everything on a timer? Also the wireless modem and a lot of other stuff that's hard/inconvenient to reach. It might make a neat experiment. If it pays off (in terms of less consumption) then it may be worth it.

161   HARM   2007 Nov 20, 4:49am  

All my life I have been hearing about the end of oil. In the 1970s the prediction was that we would run out of oil around the turn of the century. So, we should be freezing in the dark by now, with our useless vehicles all abandoned.

Once again, Zephyr Von Knowitall charges in to Make His Point and... gets his facts completely wrong.

Peak Oil theory is not about SUDDENLY running out of oil all at once --it's about oil production (extraction) hitting a peak, then slowly going into decline. A decline over a matter of DECADES, not all at once. It's not about never finding *any* new oil deposits anywhere in the world, it's about those deposits becoming fewer and further between (which has been happening since the 1960s), and the new oil fields that we *do* find tending to be smaller, deeper/more difficult to drill, and generally requiring more energy to extract the oil (EROEI ratio not as good as older fields).

M. King Hubbert predicted --back in the 1950's I might add-- that U.S. production would peak and decline in the early 1970s --precisely as it did. He also predicted worldwide production would peak around 2000. Many geologists today believe we actually hit that peak in 2005 or 2006 and are now "see-sawing" on a rough plateau before the inevitable (slow, gradual) decline.

Being off by only 5-6 years for a prediction made in the 1950s using 1950s data and 1950s technology? Not too frackin' bad in my book.

162   Brand165   2007 Nov 20, 4:50am  

SP says on SBUX: Eligible? Maybe. Interesting? Okay, I will even go that far. But Desirable? Only if you’re into trendy, neurotic, suburban, ‘i am bored lets go to the mall’ types.

Uninspired, perhaps, but many of those girls are otherwise of good quality. They come from stable families, keep in shape, are relatively sensible and have mundane tastes (particularly in what is perceived to be "luxury").

I have often pondered which is more likely: to find a cute, adventurous, sophisticated girl who isn't already taken, or to find a stable, smart but relatively boring girl and help her to break out of her shell. Having come from a relatively modest lower-middle class family, I think you can always "train up". It's mostly a factor of exposure to the world and an education in its trivialities. Most people never regress from that experience. The uninitiated simply trudge forward, naively believing that a MEW Lexus and perigraniteel are the pinnacle of middle class fulfilment.

163   HARM   2007 Nov 20, 4:56am  

I might also add that, despite some extreme doomster hand-wringing to the contrary-- Peak Oil does not require an inevitable economic/societal collapse, "Mad Max" style. As justme pointed out, its about successfully TRANSITIONING to the *next* major energy source BEFORE things get so dire countries are going to war over gas.

The world has enough uranium to last us at least 2-300 years, even with current technology. We have enought thorium for several hundred more. We also have wind, solar, geothermal, wave, etc. While not scalable and/or reliable enough to replace all our energy needs, non-nuclear can supplement a significant %, and when combined with conservation, stretch us even further. If we develop a viable, EROEI-positive form of fusion, then we will have enough energy to last us until the earth is burned out cinder 5 billion years from now.

164   justme   2007 Nov 20, 5:10am  

DinOR,

If by logging out you mean powering down, that works great. But if you are hard core about this (and I think you are!), consider also the automatic CPU power save modes that I mentioned. It is great during daytime, or if you forget to turn the PC off
Automation always helps. Look also for hard-drive spin-downs and the like.

As for the LED/nightlight/router whatnot thingamajigs, I wouldn't worry too much about them. It is the big items that count: heating, light, cooling(refrigerator) and computers and TVs.

The little stuff that runs off tiny power bricks and such is generally only a few watts. It all becomes heat eventually, so turning them off will not do much for you, especially in the winter since you are using electrical heating anyway. If you had an alternative heat source (like a heat pump), it would indeed pay off to go after the smaller items.

165   sfbubblebuyer   2007 Nov 20, 5:11am  

Oil and its derivatives are awesome because they're portable, relatively stable, and fairly easy to extract in liquid form.

We'll have options to replace oil, but none will be as nice as oil, and when the premium for using, say, nuclear power to generate hydrogen cells is less than the premium for getting oil out of the ground, we'll switch over.

The problem with passing the peak of oil production is it means energy is going to get more expensive for awhile. Once whatever we switch over to is streamlined, prices will drop, but never as low as it was using oil in the pre-peak periods.

I think it's much more likely that wars will break out over the collapse of the credit bubble (or future bubbles) than the collapse of oil-fields. Credit collapse will have few opportunities for profit, while oil production dropping allows many chances at profit in the new energy sources.

166   Brand165   2007 Nov 20, 5:34am  

I would worry more about power shifts in the Middle East after Peak Oil. But of course that's why Dubai is diligently investing its oil money into technology, infrastructure, banking, global businesses and other diversified interests. The UAE has gotten the memo.

167   SP   2007 Nov 20, 5:48am  

printable solar cells

Not quite printable cells yet, but I am playing with a solar-powered 43-inch fiberglass catamaran. The donor was an old toy, the large deck area between the hulls is ideal for a bunch of Sunmate solar panel. Ugly and s.l.o.w. for now, but I am more interested in getting data for upscaling the thing to a one or two person craft...

168   SP   2007 Nov 20, 5:50am  

By the way, that last post was in reply to justme's comment about printable solar cells as an alternative to fossil-fuel based power sources. I stripped out too much of the context by mistake...

169   justme   2007 Nov 20, 5:50am  

sfbubblebuyer,

I'm leaning more in the dorection of Brand (maybe farthe) on that one. War over oil is more likely is than war over the credit bubble.

That is, unless you're thinking of the kind of war that might be started by a big superpower that is angry that its currency is crap and it feels the need to teach the rest of the world a lesson about who is boss around here. Then I might give it a 50-50 ;).

170   justme   2007 Nov 20, 5:53am  

SP, Cool stuff. Let's hope the grand scale eventually becomes feasible.

171   PermaRenter   2007 Nov 20, 6:05am  

AP
Countrywide Stock Drops 14 Percent
Tuesday November 20, 3:13 pm ET
By Alex Veiga, AP Business Writer
Countrywide Financial Shares Fall on Freddie Mac Report; Rating Cut

LOS ANGELES (AP) -- Shares of Countrywide Financial Corp., the nation's largest mortgage lender, sank more than 14 percent Tuesday amid concerns that troubles at government-backed mortgage banks could squeeze mortgage lenders' access to funding.

The company's shares fell $1.50, or 14.2 percent, to $9.07 in afternoon trading. At one point, the stock had dropped to a low of $8.21. Over the past 52 weeks, the stock price has ranged between $10.25 and $45.26.

The stock price plunge came as Fox-Pitt, Kelton analyst Howard Shapiro cut his rating on the company to "In Line" from "Outperform."

...........
...........

172   DinOR   2007 Nov 20, 6:07am  

justme,

Oh I'm serious. As I go to build out my vacation/ret. home I want people that visit to feel free to go hog power some place else! Since I'll likely be powered by nat. gas I intend to have every outlet and every prong inventoried!

One of the things we all eventually come to appreciate is that unlike a home, utilities... are NEVER "paid off". My first water and sewer bill was $18. (That was a bi-monthly billing). I just happen to feel that if we are to be truly retired (and truly independent) certain sacrifices need to made. I realize L.E.D's aren't that big a deal it's just that we seem to think we need an outlet every 3' along the wall and then an appliance/dev. for each outlet? You know, people lived quite well for years w/ modest elec. service.

173   PermaRenter   2007 Nov 20, 6:09am  

Reuters
Freddie Mac hit by huge loss, says needs capital
Tuesday November 20, 3:56 pm ET
By Patrick Rucker

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Freddie Mac (NYSE:FRE - News), the No. 2 U.S. mortgage finance company, on Tuesday stunned Wall Street with a unexpectedly wide loss and plans to slash its dividend or use other means to raise capital to withstand a continuing downturn in the housing market.

Freddie Mac shares lost more than one-quarter of their value after reporting a net loss of $2 billion, blaming falling home prices and tighter credit conditions for having increased the number of borrowers defaulting on their mortgages. It was the worst one-day percentage drop ever and pummeled the stock to an 11-year low.

174   HeadSet   2007 Nov 20, 6:48am  

Freddie Mac shares lost more than one-quarter of their value after reporting a net loss of $2 billion, blaming falling home prices and tighter credit conditions for having increased the number of borrowers defaulting on their mortgages.

Falling home prices are to blame? What spin. How about "home prices are going through the inevitable correction after a period of lax lending allowed the multitude of howmuchamounths to bid up prices." Freddie Mac should say he is sorry andl write the definition of moral hazard on the blackboard 100 times.

175   Brand165   2007 Nov 20, 6:51am  

And with all the commotion over Fannie and Freddie getting spanked, how did the market stage a late rally? Even if HeliBen is guaranteed to cut rates in December, that's small consolation when two big GSEs just got their guts ripped out by huge realized losses and tremendous unrealized asset drops.

176   sfbubblebuyer   2007 Nov 20, 7:32am  

Justme :

Oil might be a pretext, but I figure the U.S. defaulting on its debt when the world tries to cram it back down our throat is what will really tip governments over into 'fight' mode.

177   SP   2007 Nov 20, 7:43am  

Brand said:
I have often pondered which is more likely: to find a cute, adventurous, sophisticated girl who isn’t already taken, or to find a stable, smart but relatively boring girl and help her to break out of her shell.

Stepford Deluxe with an open-source Linux kernel.

178   DinOR   2007 Nov 20, 7:56am  

"Stepford Deluxe"

LOL! Hell, I'll take two!

179   DinOR   2007 Nov 20, 7:59am  

That's the 3rd time today I've heard FNM/FRE referred to as a 'spanking'. I think "a good roger'ing" would be more appropriate.

180   anonymous   2007 Nov 20, 8:46am  

OK I'm going to go out on a limb and theorize that Brand is over in England, that in fact, he's a Limey.

And, since the US is about to go into a collapse as thorough as that of the old USSR, Brand is simply getting first in line to purchase an American mail-order bride as Russian young women have been marketed and sold over the last 10 years.

181   Ed S.   2007 Nov 20, 9:04am  

DinOR

Your comment, "You know, people lived quite well for years w/ modest elec. service." is actually something that most of us have forgotten.

The house I grew up in was built in 1938 -- a cutting edge flat roof modern design with 4br / 2.5 bath 2200 sq. ft. + a full basement. And 60 amps service for the ENTIRE place. Oil heat; everything else electric (no AC)

Now granted that some additional power has been added for AC and an electric water heater, but most new places are built with what, 200 amps? 400 amps?

So much of what we need to do to conserve is simple -- turn things off when not in use. It drives me nuts when I go to the gym and see 2 people in the place and 9 televisions on (no, not kidding 9!). I turn off everything that's not being used, but c'mon. How hard is it to turn off the TV when you're done using the Stairmaster?

182   DennisN   2007 Nov 20, 9:08am  

Let me troll for Peter P. ...

The USSC issued a writ of certiorari today in D.C. v Heller. The reason it took two weeks to issue the writ is that they decided to write their own issue statement.

183   Brand165   2007 Nov 20, 9:23am  

sunny: Nope, I'm American, born in the steel towns of the East and transplanted into the Wild West. If my humor is a bit British, it's likely due to watching too much Monty Python (as if there could be such a thing). :)

184   HARM   2007 Nov 20, 10:08am  

@Bap33,

RE: "deep-earth" oil production:

I'm assuming you are referring to Thomas Gold and his theory of abiotic petroleum deep-crust formation?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abiogenic_petroleum_origin

I'm no expert on the subject, but the evidence in favor of Gold's theory seems scant, and his support among scientists (outside of Russia anyway) appears thin at best. Even if we assume he's 100% right and there are limitless abiotic reserves deep inside the crust just waiting to be found, there are two more problems:

(1) The technology does not yet exist to reach these alleged deep-crust reserves (much less extract them on an EROEI-positive basis), and

(2) You still have the fundamental problem of extracting and consuming the oil at a rate faster than it can be replenished. Whether or not oil is created abiogenically or biogenically, we're talking about geological timescales here --eons on a human scale.

Either way, I get the distinct impression we should be aggressively pursuing alternative sources of scalable energy while oil & gas are still abundant: nuclear (fission & fusion), coal, wind, solar, wave, biodiesel, geothermal, etc.

185   HARM   2007 Nov 20, 10:17am  

RE: pollution

I'm no Berkeley-smug tree hugger, and I don't care for a lot of California's poorly conceived top-down "environmental" mandates. Google "MTBE" if you'd like a lesson in the law of unintended consequences, Cali-style.

Even so, I am old enough to recall Stage-3 smog alerts when I was growing up and how just breathing made you feel like a 3-pack-a-day smoker. And I know first-hand how much better the air quality is today, largely thanks to catalytic converters and emission standards. I have no desire to return to the air quality of my youth (just the housing prices, population, traffic and overall standard of living ;-) ).

The U.S. has basically no control over what China or Mexico or any other sovereign country does. If they want to pollute the crap out of their water, land & air, there's not much we can do about it. We only have some control over what happens here.

And yes, a few million fewer illegals would do wonders for our air quality (and traffic, and crime, and wages, and the state budget, and the public education system, etc., etc.).

186   HARM   2007 Nov 20, 10:23am  

RE: ethanol (esp. corn-based):

I agree this is a non-starter as a replacement for fossil fuels. You'd have to plow under half the planet to be able to produce enough grains to replace all of the oil the world uses, assuming that's even possible. Ditto for hydrogen --hydrogen's an energy CARRIER, not an energy SOURCE. A basic fact of physics most people don't seem to comprehend.

Coal can help get us through the transition period, but in the long run, it will eventually peak and decline as well. Not to mention the fact it's one of the "dirtiest" most environmentally destructive forms of energy production there is, at least given current technology. Nuclear, on the other hand, has a bright future if done right (think France) --and if the public can get over its fears of "another Chernobyl".

187   justme   2007 Nov 20, 11:05am  

Bap33,

Harm already covered most of what I would say. Some quick points:

1. Abiogenic oil -- I don't believe in it, but you can have your guess, as you said.

2. Smog reduction technology (catalytic converters) reduces energy efficiency. Yes, and in more ways than one. It let's people drive big terrible V8 cars that otherwise would have polluted something awful and would have been banned altogether. Another example of a good technology being perverted by the wrong usage model.

3. Coal: Dirty as hell. I wish we could use less of it.

4. China should reduce their consumption first: That's unreasonable. We consume (dissipate) more energy per capita than any other country in the world. Why should we not reduce first? I hope the answer isn't "because we are god's own country".

5. Ethanol. I agree, growing corn for ethanol is not a good solution. I'm not supporting it. Hydrogen is going to be even worse of a solution. Biodiesel is probably better.

6. Illegal aliens. I really don't think lead-footed illegal aliens is the real problem here. They're not helping, but they are not the problem.

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