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Prices and Days On Market


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2008 Jan 13, 11:48pm   28,305 views  305 comments

by Patrick   ➕follow (59)   💰tip   ignore  

dom

Sale prices are always given as an absolute number, without context. The reality is that falling prices can be masked to some extent by a longer number of days on the market.

Getting $500,000 within a week of listing is not at all the same thing as getting $500,000 after having the house on the market for 2 years, yet both are recorded as the same price. Ultimately, you can pretend your house is worth whatever you want by letting days on market go to infinity -- just pulling it off the market. No one will buy it for your dream price, but you don't have to face the reality that it is not worth what you thought either. Assuming you can pay the mortgage.

Realtors know that increasing days on market proves that a house is not worth the asking price. That's why they commonly try to scam users by re-listing a house as if it just came on the market.

Patrick

#housing

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186   DinOR   2008 Jan 16, 4:39am  

EBGuy,

I'd read about that some years back and I believe the SW corner of MN has wind gusts consistent enough to make that feasible? So after 3 generations of farming "in" high winds the old timer IS farming high winds!

They had one of the Siemens propeller brake engage suddenly in the Columbia Gorge and it shattered the mast and killed one tech, seriously injuring the other. Still and all it was a pretty freak accident.

Yeah, I just glanced at the Reuters article early this morning, I wasn't knit-picking. Go Silly Valley!

187   StuckInBA   2008 Jan 16, 4:47am  

EBGuy :

Did you hear what are the legislators in your back yard trying to do ? Heard this on KCBS today morning.

http://tinyurl.com/ypnknn

The six-month, voluntary moratorium on mortgage foreclosures approved by county supervisors would benefit the area’s entire economy and not just home owners, members of the board said Tuesday.

That will fix the foreclosure problem. I am glad they agreed to do this. Now if they can pass some measures to prohibit increases in Gas and food prices, that will go a long way as well. And while they are at it, install measures for minimum salary to be 150K across all fields.

188   DennisN   2008 Jan 16, 4:51am  

Will the IRS tax FB's for the "income" which is the difference between the contract price on an ARM mortgage versus any moratorium-on-interest-rate increase price?

189   DinOR   2008 Jan 16, 5:14am  

StuckInBA,

O.K...? I'm a sport! (Who's voluntarily doing.. what?)

Are the County Soups just saying they're not going to honor the process and demands of the lenders attorneys? I KNOW the FB's aren't volunteering to get current on their payments!

Oh and yes make that a fill w/ premium at 2005 prices please! :)

190   EBGuy   2008 Jan 16, 5:34am  

I think it was Ahhnold who perfected the voluntary moratorium, except he had better PR people. When 70% of the electorate is seeing their net worth evaporate (and in some cases, having their homes "reposessed" ), you had better look like you're doing something.

191   PermaRenter   2008 Jan 16, 5:41am  

AP
Americans Pay for Housing Boom's Excess
Wednesday January 16, 4:37 pm ET
By Madlen Read and Joe Bel Bruno, AP Business Writers
U.S. Banks Seeing Higher Delinquencies on More Than Just Mortgage Payments

NEW YORK (AP) -- The bill for America's excessive borrowing during the housing boom has arrived, and more people are having trouble paying it.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Wells Fargo & Co., two of the nation's biggest banks, on Wednesday joined a growing chorus warning that the subprime mortgage mess is just the start of a sweeping lending crisis. And some fear that consumers falling behind on all kinds of loan payments could tip the economy's scale toward recession.

ADVERTISEMENT

Strapped consumers are having a tough time making payments on credit cards, home-equity loans, and even for their cars. This has caused three of the top five U.S. commercial banks that have already reported damaging fourth-quarter results to set aside some $12.5 billion to cover future loan losses -- and that number will likely grow as the year wears on.

Problems in the subprime mortgage market are rapidly spilling over into other areas of the economy. No matter what the experts call it -- a recession, slowdown or even the makings of a depression -- it's clear banks are under mounting pressure to be more cautious about lending.

"If consumption growth stagnates, the odds of a recession are incredibly high," said Andrew Bernard, director of the Center for International Business at the Tuck School of Business at Dartmouth. "All the pieces of household financial health are starting to be shakier, especially at the low end."

192   DinOR   2008 Jan 16, 5:42am  

"I love open space"

Peter, just for a goof check out Modoc County, CA and even the Sprague River area in Southern OR. I've spent some time there and while not as trendy as some areas (it's definitely affordable!) Still a lot of property w/ views and great fishing for $500 an acre.

*Bring 4WD

193   HelloKitty   2008 Jan 16, 5:56am  

I thought Wall Street was where all the mega crime originated. Its easy to stay out of dc, oakland,etc - rotsa ruck hiding from Wall Streeters - they got looong arms.

194   Peter P   2008 Jan 16, 6:33am  

Its easy to stay out of dc, oakland,etc - rotsa ruck hiding from Wall Streeters - they got looong arms.

It is also not hard to stay out of Enron/WorldCom-type crimes. Just use common sense and don't be greedy.

195   HeadSet   2008 Jan 16, 7:16am  

It is also not hard to stay out of Enron/WorldCom-type crimes. Just use common sense and don’t be greedy.

Circuit City (CC) has gone down from $22 to about $3.50 in less than a year. Would buying that now be opportunity or greed?

196   DinOR   2008 Jan 16, 7:19am  

Good Lord. That is one ugly chart. I don't follow these guys, what went wrong?

197   HeadSet   2008 Jan 16, 7:24am  

What happened to Circuit City? Best Buy and Walmart.

Circuit City may be a buyout target (think Sears/Kmart, stock went from $15 to well over $100) or or CC could just plain die. Or maybe recover.

198   Malcolm   2008 Jan 16, 7:41am  

DinOR Says:
January 16th, 2008 at 12:11 pm
"Then it comes up that their mother-in-law lives w/ them and demands the central a/c run 24/7 during the summer."

Any future administration who tries to tackle energy issues will have to specifically address mother in laws.

199   StuckInBA   2008 Jan 16, 7:42am  

The consumer is to blame - for Circuit City. Primarily. Stores that manage their efficiency better will not do as bad. Note that both WMT and BBY stocks have done a whole lot of nothing in last year. Sears, Macy's are all at 52 week lows. But CC is hurting even more as inventory of unsold electronic items depreciate really really fast.

I like CC stores better than best buy. But of course Fry's is the best.

200   Malcolm   2008 Jan 16, 7:46am  

HelloKitty Says:
January 16th, 2008 at 1:56 pm
"I thought Wall Street was where all the mega crime originated. Its easy to stay out of dc, oakland,etc - rotsa ruck hiding from Wall Streeters - they got looong arms."

Nice one, as usual someone here thinks outside the 4 equal sided shape with right angles. It all depends on whose definition of 'crime' you use. Awesome!

201   Malcolm   2008 Jan 16, 7:48am  

Still baffled, can someone explain to me why a law is needed for something that is voluntary?

202   Peter P   2008 Jan 16, 7:57am  

Still baffled, can someone explain to me why a law is needed for something that is voluntary?

Because some people think there is a need to "do something" even though they knew nothing could be done.

It is man's natural reaction to impotency.

203   Malcolm   2008 Jan 16, 7:58am  

So it's legislative Viagra?

204   Peter P   2008 Jan 16, 8:03am  

Something like that.

205   HeadSet   2008 Jan 16, 8:03am  

From the article:
The six-month, voluntary moratorium on mortgage foreclosures approved by county supervisors would benefit the area’s entire economy and not just home owners, members of the board said Tuesday.
The supervisors adopted the measure calling on lenders to limit foreclosures...

It appears the soups passed a resolution to ask lenders to limit forclosures for 6 months. I guess "voluntary" is newspeak for "beg."

206   HeadSet   2008 Jan 16, 8:09am  

So it’s legislative Viagra?

Nope. At least Viagra gives an impotent the ability to plant. That resolution is still limp. More like Tom Jones who is rumored to put a rolled up sock in his pants before he goes on stage.

207   PermaRenter   2008 Jan 16, 8:14am  

Ex-Brocade Chief Gets 21-Month Term for Backdating (Update3)

By Karen Gullo

Jan. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Former Brocade Communications Systems Inc. Chief Executive Officer Gregory Reyes, the first CEO convicted by a jury for stock options manipulation, was sentenced to 21 months in prison and ordered to pay a $15 million fine.

The sentence today by U.S. District Judge Charles Breyer in San Francisco was less than the 24-to-30 month term he said was the maximum allowed and the 33-month term prosecutors sought. Breyer said Reyes deserved more than sentences given executives who pleaded guilty to backdating and less than the maximum because he was a ``good and decent'' man who gave to charities.

The case was about ``the failure of a CEO of a publicly traded company to honestly disclose financial information,'' Breyer said. ``It is about lying to his company.''

============

I want more Silly Con Valley CEOs behind bars ....

208   Peter P   2008 Jan 16, 8:51am  

The case was about “the failure of a CEO of a publicly traded company to honestly disclose financial information,” Breyer said. “It is about lying to his company.”

Caveat emptor. The stock market is a game of pure psychology. Trying to enforce discipline will not add rationality to the market.

209   Peter P   2008 Jan 16, 9:18am  

It is not about true markets. It is about truly irrational markets. Stock price is just a time-series to me.

So the Brocade prosecution is just witch-hunt.

210   PermaRenter   2008 Jan 16, 9:27am  

>> So the Brocade prosecution is just witch-hunt.

I would rather go for witch hunt than no hunt at all. Every time a CEO is put behind bars is justice served ....

211   Peter P   2008 Jan 16, 9:42am  

TOB, why are you against me? Are you a vegetarian?

212   OO   2008 Jan 16, 9:56am  

Prelude to China's crash landing:

China just instituted price control on all major food and fuel commodities, PRICE CONTROL. Essentially any entity in the category defined intend to increase 4% or more on price need to submit application.

Incidentally, just in last month alone, several major food categories went up over 50%, particularly cooking oil.

China will have a spectacular crash when hyperinflation gets out of control. Price control is usually the first futile step before hyperinflation breaks out.

At the same time, PBOC is raising the capital reserve ratio requirement to 15%, the highest since 1984. But by 1988, inflation swept through China which led to the famous June 4 Tiananmen incident. This is a horrible recipe, because the underground rate for inter-business lending is already close to 25%, there will be massive unemployment as factories battle huge surge of lending cost, raw materials cost and depressed demand due to hyper-inflationary food necessities.

213   Malcolm   2008 Jan 16, 10:05am  

I don't think the one that rhymes with mall is going to make it. :(

214   Peter P   2008 Jan 16, 10:15am  

China just instituted price control on all major food and fuel commodities, PRICE CONTROL.

Oh no, China is becoming communistic! :(

215   Malcolm   2008 Jan 16, 10:16am  

As a solution to China's inflation problems I suggest they follow our model for containing it.

They should tax their citizens at 50% giving them less purchasing power, and they should outsource all value added functions to third world countries with weak currencies where they can get a comparative advantage with their stronger currency. A country with desperate people willing to do anything for an honest day's pay. Perhaps they might consider opening factories in the United States Of America.

216   Peter P   2008 Jan 16, 10:19am  

Perhaps China can hedonize away inflation.

217   Malcolm   2008 Jan 16, 10:23am  

Nixon tried this crap and failed. You can't just legislate costs away.

218   Malcolm   2008 Jan 16, 10:23am  

Peter, do you mean maybe some Casinos will help? Maybe they can follow the California Indian tribe gaming model.

219   Malcolm   2008 Jan 16, 10:24am  

Homer Simpson found this to be a very effective way to stimulate a primitive economy.

220   Malcolm   2008 Jan 16, 10:26am  

The boomer solution to everything. Find an ancient temple and fill it with slot machines. Then offer an all U can eat buffet and watch the waves of blubber roll in.

221   Peter P   2008 Jan 16, 10:34am  

Maybe they can follow the California Indian tribe gaming model.

Not a bad idea, although I think they should also allow non-Indian casinos here. More revenue means potential for lower tax!

222   StuckInBA   2008 Jan 16, 10:41am  

OO,

China will have to stop importing inflation. The process has started and no matter how hard they try against it, there is a limit which will be reached soon. It may take hyper-inflation in China for them to stop importing anymore of it from US.

I am betting it won't happen before Olympics. Then USD will have no floor. But no country really likes that. So they will all try futile attempts to prevent it. I think that means paper currencies will keep losing value. I am not a gold bug, but this scenario certainly bodes well for the commodities in general and gold in particular.

223   Malcolm   2008 Jan 16, 11:06am  

Peter P Says:
January 16th, 2008 at 6:34 pm
"Not a bad idea, although I think they should also allow non-Indian casinos here. More revenue means potential for lower tax!"

You mean like the lottery was going to?

224   Malcolm   2008 Jan 16, 11:06am  

In moderation again, thnx

225   Malcolm   2008 Jan 16, 11:43am  

You're touching on something that most people wouldn't even have a clue what you are talking about but I agree, there is a huge shift happening. There are going to be a lot of unhappy old people in15-25 years.

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