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Prices and Days On Market


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2008 Jan 13, 11:48pm   28,301 views  305 comments

by Patrick   ➕follow (59)   💰tip   ignore  

dom

Sale prices are always given as an absolute number, without context. The reality is that falling prices can be masked to some extent by a longer number of days on the market.

Getting $500,000 within a week of listing is not at all the same thing as getting $500,000 after having the house on the market for 2 years, yet both are recorded as the same price. Ultimately, you can pretend your house is worth whatever you want by letting days on market go to infinity -- just pulling it off the market. No one will buy it for your dream price, but you don't have to face the reality that it is not worth what you thought either. Assuming you can pay the mortgage.

Realtors know that increasing days on market proves that a house is not worth the asking price. That's why they commonly try to scam users by re-listing a house as if it just came on the market.

Patrick

#housing

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193   HelloKitty   2008 Jan 16, 5:56am  

I thought Wall Street was where all the mega crime originated. Its easy to stay out of dc, oakland,etc - rotsa ruck hiding from Wall Streeters - they got looong arms.

194   Peter P   2008 Jan 16, 6:33am  

Its easy to stay out of dc, oakland,etc - rotsa ruck hiding from Wall Streeters - they got looong arms.

It is also not hard to stay out of Enron/WorldCom-type crimes. Just use common sense and don't be greedy.

195   HeadSet   2008 Jan 16, 7:16am  

It is also not hard to stay out of Enron/WorldCom-type crimes. Just use common sense and don’t be greedy.

Circuit City (CC) has gone down from $22 to about $3.50 in less than a year. Would buying that now be opportunity or greed?

196   DinOR   2008 Jan 16, 7:19am  

Good Lord. That is one ugly chart. I don't follow these guys, what went wrong?

197   HeadSet   2008 Jan 16, 7:24am  

What happened to Circuit City? Best Buy and Walmart.

Circuit City may be a buyout target (think Sears/Kmart, stock went from $15 to well over $100) or or CC could just plain die. Or maybe recover.

198   Malcolm   2008 Jan 16, 7:41am  

DinOR Says:
January 16th, 2008 at 12:11 pm
"Then it comes up that their mother-in-law lives w/ them and demands the central a/c run 24/7 during the summer."

Any future administration who tries to tackle energy issues will have to specifically address mother in laws.

199   StuckInBA   2008 Jan 16, 7:42am  

The consumer is to blame - for Circuit City. Primarily. Stores that manage their efficiency better will not do as bad. Note that both WMT and BBY stocks have done a whole lot of nothing in last year. Sears, Macy's are all at 52 week lows. But CC is hurting even more as inventory of unsold electronic items depreciate really really fast.

I like CC stores better than best buy. But of course Fry's is the best.

200   Malcolm   2008 Jan 16, 7:46am  

HelloKitty Says:
January 16th, 2008 at 1:56 pm
"I thought Wall Street was where all the mega crime originated. Its easy to stay out of dc, oakland,etc - rotsa ruck hiding from Wall Streeters - they got looong arms."

Nice one, as usual someone here thinks outside the 4 equal sided shape with right angles. It all depends on whose definition of 'crime' you use. Awesome!

201   Malcolm   2008 Jan 16, 7:48am  

Still baffled, can someone explain to me why a law is needed for something that is voluntary?

202   Peter P   2008 Jan 16, 7:57am  

Still baffled, can someone explain to me why a law is needed for something that is voluntary?

Because some people think there is a need to "do something" even though they knew nothing could be done.

It is man's natural reaction to impotency.

203   Malcolm   2008 Jan 16, 7:58am  

So it's legislative Viagra?

204   Peter P   2008 Jan 16, 8:03am  

Something like that.

205   HeadSet   2008 Jan 16, 8:03am  

From the article:
The six-month, voluntary moratorium on mortgage foreclosures approved by county supervisors would benefit the area’s entire economy and not just home owners, members of the board said Tuesday.
The supervisors adopted the measure calling on lenders to limit foreclosures...

It appears the soups passed a resolution to ask lenders to limit forclosures for 6 months. I guess "voluntary" is newspeak for "beg."

206   HeadSet   2008 Jan 16, 8:09am  

So it’s legislative Viagra?

Nope. At least Viagra gives an impotent the ability to plant. That resolution is still limp. More like Tom Jones who is rumored to put a rolled up sock in his pants before he goes on stage.

207   PermaRenter   2008 Jan 16, 8:14am  

Ex-Brocade Chief Gets 21-Month Term for Backdating (Update3)

By Karen Gullo

Jan. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Former Brocade Communications Systems Inc. Chief Executive Officer Gregory Reyes, the first CEO convicted by a jury for stock options manipulation, was sentenced to 21 months in prison and ordered to pay a $15 million fine.

The sentence today by U.S. District Judge Charles Breyer in San Francisco was less than the 24-to-30 month term he said was the maximum allowed and the 33-month term prosecutors sought. Breyer said Reyes deserved more than sentences given executives who pleaded guilty to backdating and less than the maximum because he was a ``good and decent'' man who gave to charities.

The case was about ``the failure of a CEO of a publicly traded company to honestly disclose financial information,'' Breyer said. ``It is about lying to his company.''

============

I want more Silly Con Valley CEOs behind bars ....

208   Peter P   2008 Jan 16, 8:51am  

The case was about “the failure of a CEO of a publicly traded company to honestly disclose financial information,” Breyer said. “It is about lying to his company.”

Caveat emptor. The stock market is a game of pure psychology. Trying to enforce discipline will not add rationality to the market.

209   Peter P   2008 Jan 16, 9:18am  

It is not about true markets. It is about truly irrational markets. Stock price is just a time-series to me.

So the Brocade prosecution is just witch-hunt.

210   PermaRenter   2008 Jan 16, 9:27am  

>> So the Brocade prosecution is just witch-hunt.

I would rather go for witch hunt than no hunt at all. Every time a CEO is put behind bars is justice served ....

211   Peter P   2008 Jan 16, 9:42am  

TOB, why are you against me? Are you a vegetarian?

212   OO   2008 Jan 16, 9:56am  

Prelude to China's crash landing:

China just instituted price control on all major food and fuel commodities, PRICE CONTROL. Essentially any entity in the category defined intend to increase 4% or more on price need to submit application.

Incidentally, just in last month alone, several major food categories went up over 50%, particularly cooking oil.

China will have a spectacular crash when hyperinflation gets out of control. Price control is usually the first futile step before hyperinflation breaks out.

At the same time, PBOC is raising the capital reserve ratio requirement to 15%, the highest since 1984. But by 1988, inflation swept through China which led to the famous June 4 Tiananmen incident. This is a horrible recipe, because the underground rate for inter-business lending is already close to 25%, there will be massive unemployment as factories battle huge surge of lending cost, raw materials cost and depressed demand due to hyper-inflationary food necessities.

213   Malcolm   2008 Jan 16, 10:05am  

I don't think the one that rhymes with mall is going to make it. :(

214   Peter P   2008 Jan 16, 10:15am  

China just instituted price control on all major food and fuel commodities, PRICE CONTROL.

Oh no, China is becoming communistic! :(

215   Malcolm   2008 Jan 16, 10:16am  

As a solution to China's inflation problems I suggest they follow our model for containing it.

They should tax their citizens at 50% giving them less purchasing power, and they should outsource all value added functions to third world countries with weak currencies where they can get a comparative advantage with their stronger currency. A country with desperate people willing to do anything for an honest day's pay. Perhaps they might consider opening factories in the United States Of America.

216   Peter P   2008 Jan 16, 10:19am  

Perhaps China can hedonize away inflation.

217   Malcolm   2008 Jan 16, 10:23am  

Nixon tried this crap and failed. You can't just legislate costs away.

218   Malcolm   2008 Jan 16, 10:23am  

Peter, do you mean maybe some Casinos will help? Maybe they can follow the California Indian tribe gaming model.

219   Malcolm   2008 Jan 16, 10:24am  

Homer Simpson found this to be a very effective way to stimulate a primitive economy.

220   Malcolm   2008 Jan 16, 10:26am  

The boomer solution to everything. Find an ancient temple and fill it with slot machines. Then offer an all U can eat buffet and watch the waves of blubber roll in.

221   Peter P   2008 Jan 16, 10:34am  

Maybe they can follow the California Indian tribe gaming model.

Not a bad idea, although I think they should also allow non-Indian casinos here. More revenue means potential for lower tax!

222   StuckInBA   2008 Jan 16, 10:41am  

OO,

China will have to stop importing inflation. The process has started and no matter how hard they try against it, there is a limit which will be reached soon. It may take hyper-inflation in China for them to stop importing anymore of it from US.

I am betting it won't happen before Olympics. Then USD will have no floor. But no country really likes that. So they will all try futile attempts to prevent it. I think that means paper currencies will keep losing value. I am not a gold bug, but this scenario certainly bodes well for the commodities in general and gold in particular.

223   Malcolm   2008 Jan 16, 11:06am  

Peter P Says:
January 16th, 2008 at 6:34 pm
"Not a bad idea, although I think they should also allow non-Indian casinos here. More revenue means potential for lower tax!"

You mean like the lottery was going to?

224   Malcolm   2008 Jan 16, 11:06am  

In moderation again, thnx

225   Malcolm   2008 Jan 16, 11:43am  

You're touching on something that most people wouldn't even have a clue what you are talking about but I agree, there is a huge shift happening. There are going to be a lot of unhappy old people in15-25 years.

226   Malcolm   2008 Jan 16, 12:20pm  

I think some of it is the shallowness and indebtedness, the things I see influencing it the most is the constant redefining for special interests. Case in point, what is an American company? It used to be an American car was made here by a company headquartered here, and they competed with foreign imports. Now we have companies headquarted here calling themselves American companies but the factory is overseas. That's not an American company. I believe in the outsourcing model but not over international borders. If something is manufactured overseas it should be considered an import no matter where the company is. Yes I know the label says where it is made but it is still considered American when it comes to taxes and tarrifs which is why I have changed my mind on international free trade agreements. Another case in point, an American farm. We penalize the shit and outright ban imported fruit from Mexico. That is unless it is an American farm in Mexico.

227   Malcolm   2008 Jan 16, 12:21pm  

tariffs ~sp

228   Malcolm   2008 Jan 16, 12:37pm  

Someone here basically touched on the bastardization of IP. Knowing this country is under attack on multiple fronts, the jails are overcrowded, I get outraged going to a movie and seeing signs in the lobby saying you can go to jail just for taking a picture of the movie screen.

A girl just lost an appeal for a 250K judgment against her for downloading songs. Have you noticed the subtle change in the definition of a copyright violation? They have inserted the words "even for non-commercial" in the distribution section. This constant BS about music sharing now leaves libraries and car drivers with passengers potentially liable for music sharing. Even though songs are broadcast over public airwaves.
People who claim they want free commerce wasnt TV DVRs and remotes banned to force you to watch a commercial. Somehow now an advertiser has a RIGHT to force you to watch a commercial under this legal theory. I guess if I pay to send someone junk mail or spam, they have to read it.

My girlfirend recently paid a vet bill she did not owe because of the intimidation of damaging her credit report. Now even if you dispute it, you will still suffer damage to your credit because businesses somehow don't have to prove a debt in court anymore. I fear corporate oppression of my rights more than government oppression. I feal there are many checks we still have on government but somehow government outsources the bad stuff to corporations. Case in point, Verizon can't be sued for violating your privacy rights by submitting your phone records to the government even when there was no probable cause. Another case in point, food has to be labeled organic, how come it isn't the other way around, shouldn't the hormone treated, genetically altered, and pesticide laden food have to carry warning labels?

229   Malcolm   2008 Jan 16, 12:37pm  

So Peter, respectfully, yes I don't think the free market regulates itself.

230   Peter P   2008 Jan 16, 12:55pm  

Having your ISP block sites like Patrick.net could be a very real situation by the next presidential term.

Why worry about a bunch of loosers like us? :)

231   Malcolm   2008 Jan 16, 12:58pm  

I felt I got a very good education of a very flawed system in my MBA studies. The pure profit motives, and how drug companies test FDA boundaries with claims, and exploit populations of third world countries by testing drugs many times on unknowing people was very eye opening. The technical term for these people are "drug naievety" populations.

232   Malcolm   2008 Jan 16, 1:03pm  

They already do that in China. Google was recently investigated because one of the people it turned in from its search engine (again government outsourcing of tyrany) was actually executed. The downside, a little bad PR, but hey the stock was doing well.

I recently DVRd a piece on a third world country who was using their army to force locals to build a pipeline for Chevron. Those people protested being forced to work for no money at all and against their wishes. Well, one of them was shot dead. Chevron of course denied any involvement until a receipt and a Chevron payment check to the army was discovered.

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