patrick.net

Kevin said:I won’t be at all surprised if ten or twenty years from now every personal computer is a tablet, with a small niche market of docking solutions for creative industries (design, programming, journalism) that need larger screens and/or physical keyboards to do their work.
And that is the one area where I could see x86 having a chance. I'm not sure x86 has really made a ago at the tablet market at the price points it demands. Clayton Christensen has argued that the licensed IP model for processing cores,etc. is disruptive; it looks like the market may be proving him right. They certainly are scaring the heck out of the x86 camp. As I noted on another thread, there are companies that think low power ARMs can make in roads in the server market. Did anyone notice that Microsoft announced that it will support Windows 8 on ARM chips? That, I did not expect.

Kevin said:Samsung. The proof is in the benchmarks.
And might that be because of the Intrinsity optimizations applied to the ARM core? I'm being somewhat rhetorical, but I truly don't know if there might be other reasons. In my very limited understanding of this business, it's the foundry that has the ARM license (in this case, Samsung). Now that Apple owns Intrinsity, it will be interesting to see if others (whoever manufactures the Apple chips) also have access to the optimized core for their own use. This is in reference to the next gen of ARM based products.

EBGuy says

And that is the one area where I could see x86 having a chance. I’m not sure x86 has really made a ago at the tablet market at the price points it demands.

Why? A9 is outperforming Oak Trail on most benchmarks already, and early tests of A15 are outperforming Sandy Bridge, at half the power and less than a quarter of the cost. Why would you want x86 when the alternative is superior in every possible dimension? It makes no sense whatsoever, unless you have a bunch of hand tuned assembly that you just can't port.

EBGuy says

And might that be because of the Intrinsity optimizations applied to the ARM core?

Intrinsity can not be given sole credit for the optimizations. It was a joint venture between Samsung and Intrinsity. The A4 (Apple / Intrinsity's design) is a weaker processor than Hummingbird (Samsung's design).

The primary advantage that Apple got by buying Intrinsity and PA semi was leverage over Samsung to continue to make its processors at reasonable prices. Notice how Samsung is conspicuously absent in the matrix of who's suing who in the mobile industry?

Samsung makes the A4, and will likely make the A5, because it will be difficult for Apple to go to another manufacturer without Samsung's side of the hummingbird IP. That might change when Apple switches to a cortex A-15 based chip, but that won't be until the iphone 6 at the earliest.

Tomorrow should be interesting.... Apple will probably crash in the AM on the Steve Jobs health worries... Just how bad? 10-20% haircut possible.. Then if earnings aren't absolutely AMAZING... Then look out, another 10% haircut is possible.. total 20-30% loss! I was really considering selling some of my position soon... oh well, guess I'll hold on now.

I don't think AAPL will crash at all.

Though this exact event is why I advised a friend who wanted to lighten his AAPL position to just sell with a market limit order instead of a trailing stop (which is the normal way to get out of a position).

Thanks to Steve's stupid pancreas, it was always possible that one could wake up with AAPL cut in half, running your stops and then having the damn thing bounce back.

Futes are going to be fun to watch tonight. I miss firing up TOS and watching zillions of dollars change hands overnight.

Hmmm yes, I'm sitting here this evening waffling on what to do with my stops. Previously set at a simple trailing stop $335. Hmmm, adjust down for more room to bounce, or just let it bail? Decisions, decisions.

I think they'll have soiid earnings, which will offset the impact of the Jobs news.

Long term, though, I'm skeptical about Apple's prospects without Jobs. I would say that 75% of their value is derived from his leadership.

And.... I'm out. Stops were tripped at the open.

Seems rising just fine after the initial reaction. Now I'm bummed. Oh well, on to the next trade.

Los Angeles Renter says

Tomorrow should be interesting…. Apple will probably crash in the AM on the Steve Jobs health worries… Just how bad? 10-20% haircut possible.. Then if earnings aren’t absolutely AMAZING… Then look out, another 10% haircut is possible.. total 20-30% loss! I was really considering selling some of my position soon… oh well, guess I’ll hold on now.

Well, i'm glad I was wrong.. I guess jobs departure from Apple is already priced in... Good to know!

SF ace says

file this under why you should never set up stops. I knew Apple is good when my freakin nanny bought an Ipad. Incredible.
I had a chance to visit Hong Kong and Singapore last month and Apple products are absolute hits. It’s just incredible everyone that had a Nokia two years ago are all converted to Iphone 4, for $799 no less.
I don’t know the technical details like Kevin, but Apple just passes the eye test. Samsung is a distant second.

I'm not sure I follow. My comments about Samsung was with regards to their components, not their finished products. Their finished products are pretty mediocre in most fields, and I honestly wouldn't pick them out of a crowd. I certainly wouldn't call them a 'distant second'. In the smartphone (and soon, tablet) space, in terms of overall quality, I would put Nokia as second best in terms of design, but their software is garbage. Motorola would be my vote for third.

Where Samsung shines is in their semiconductor (SoC's, DRAM, NAND) and display panel businesses. Where do you think Apple gets their parts from? Samsung desperately wants to move up the value chain, and they're having modest success with it, but if they keep fucking with their customers the way that they've done with the Galaxy S line, or jumping the gun and producing mediocre products like the Galaxy Tab, their chances are slim.

I am still in AAPL. Wanted to buy more on the dip, but missed my limit order by $1.
On to the next one, indeed.

Now I see AAPL has been slumping a bit the last few days. Hmmm, the excitement is gone I guess. Now I don't feel so bad about bouncing out.

Options expiration tomorrow. Market maker conspiracies? I'm a believer; I finally started writing covered calls (on another tech, not Apple). Don't fight The Man. Tomorrow should be fun as I haven't closed out my position yet...