patrick.net

Tomorrow should be interesting.... Apple will probably crash in the AM on the Steve Jobs health worries... Just how bad? 10-20% haircut possible.. Then if earnings aren't absolutely AMAZING... Then look out, another 10% haircut is possible.. total 20-30% loss! I was really considering selling some of my position soon... oh well, guess I'll hold on now.

I don't think AAPL will crash at all.

Though this exact event is why I advised a friend who wanted to lighten his AAPL position to just sell with a market limit order instead of a trailing stop (which is the normal way to get out of a position).

Thanks to Steve's stupid pancreas, it was always possible that one could wake up with AAPL cut in half, running your stops and then having the damn thing bounce back.

Futes are going to be fun to watch tonight. I miss firing up TOS and watching zillions of dollars change hands overnight.

Hmmm yes, I'm sitting here this evening waffling on what to do with my stops. Previously set at a simple trailing stop $335. Hmmm, adjust down for more room to bounce, or just let it bail? Decisions, decisions.

I think they'll have soiid earnings, which will offset the impact of the Jobs news.

Long term, though, I'm skeptical about Apple's prospects without Jobs. I would say that 75% of their value is derived from his leadership.

And.... I'm out. Stops were tripped at the open.

Seems rising just fine after the initial reaction. Now I'm bummed. Oh well, on to the next trade.

Los Angeles Renter says

Tomorrow should be interesting…. Apple will probably crash in the AM on the Steve Jobs health worries… Just how bad? 10-20% haircut possible.. Then if earnings aren’t absolutely AMAZING… Then look out, another 10% haircut is possible.. total 20-30% loss! I was really considering selling some of my position soon… oh well, guess I’ll hold on now.

Well, i'm glad I was wrong.. I guess jobs departure from Apple is already priced in... Good to know!

SF ace says

file this under why you should never set up stops. I knew Apple is good when my freakin nanny bought an Ipad. Incredible.
I had a chance to visit Hong Kong and Singapore last month and Apple products are absolute hits. It’s just incredible everyone that had a Nokia two years ago are all converted to Iphone 4, for $799 no less.
I don’t know the technical details like Kevin, but Apple just passes the eye test. Samsung is a distant second.

I'm not sure I follow. My comments about Samsung was with regards to their components, not their finished products. Their finished products are pretty mediocre in most fields, and I honestly wouldn't pick them out of a crowd. I certainly wouldn't call them a 'distant second'. In the smartphone (and soon, tablet) space, in terms of overall quality, I would put Nokia as second best in terms of design, but their software is garbage. Motorola would be my vote for third.

Where Samsung shines is in their semiconductor (SoC's, DRAM, NAND) and display panel businesses. Where do you think Apple gets their parts from? Samsung desperately wants to move up the value chain, and they're having modest success with it, but if they keep fucking with their customers the way that they've done with the Galaxy S line, or jumping the gun and producing mediocre products like the Galaxy Tab, their chances are slim.

I am still in AAPL. Wanted to buy more on the dip, but missed my limit order by $1.
On to the next one, indeed.

Now I see AAPL has been slumping a bit the last few days. Hmmm, the excitement is gone I guess. Now I don't feel so bad about bouncing out.

Options expiration tomorrow. Market maker conspiracies? I'm a believer; I finally started writing covered calls (on another tech, not Apple). Don't fight The Man. Tomorrow should be fun as I haven't closed out my position yet...