patrick.net

DinOR - I can smell the sarcasm. At least I hope that was sarcasm when you are suggesting that you will be able to just sit, and make appreciation. The days of double digit appreciation are well behind. Sure, there are still pockets of appreciating land value, however even in those areas you have to wonder. Using the traditional affordability index, in which houses were bought at only 3 times the annual income - you can still see huge inflation in even modest neighborhoods. Just look at the average income compared to the average house price. I think if nothing else, this recession will bring banks back to more traditional lending standards - and thus un-inflate house prices.

CLB,

I have a good friend of mine that joined the service just so he wouldn't have to sell washing machines for the rest of his life at "dad's" appliance store. When he got out (late 80's) the economy.... sucked. So, he became a "rennovation guy" (that's what we called them at the time) and has been doing it ever since.

It just grinds me down to see how many have quit their day jobs to engage in this really without knowing what they're doing. My buddy hates them too b/c they drove sellers to asking prices that basically only allowed for "making wages". Still and all you have GOT to see youtube's "Real Financial Heros". It's freakin' hysterical.

Randy H Says:
But the increase in the GSE limit _will_ gum up price declines in the Bay Area. Mark my words. This is for both fundamental and psychological reasons:

I agree with your reasoning, but it looks like buyer sentiment has already taken a big hit. From what I hear from realtors, bids at 95-98% of asking are the norm now. Besides, the inventory is already climbing fast and raising the limit will not make borrower _qualification_ on DTI and LTV any easier soon. So, despite the higher GSE cap, the actual willing & able buyer-pool on the ground will probably stay thin.

You may well be right, this may give sellers enough room to hold out till buyers can be forced to put their neck on the block again. However, it does not seem to me a guaranteed outcome.

I believe the next move in this bait and switch will be to relax the DTI/LTV requirements, followed by a tax-funded bailout of Fannie/Freddie, so finally the banks can offload crap to the taxpayer... but at least for now, the qualifying standards seem to still be applicable.

Didn't your buddy quit his day job to do this full time?

I am not sure what you mean by "making wages". If by that, you mean drove prices down - that is a good thing. I don't think anyone here would argue that prices aren't horribly inflated, and in need of a correction. Often times, I and my colleagues provide that, because we always price our houses for a quick sale i.e. less than the average asking prices in that neighborhood.

I pitched in and tried to keep the front yard cleaned up at a foreclosure around the corner from me. The FB took off and let things just go - he even took the garden hoses with him. I bought a cheapie hose at Wallyworld and at least kept the shrubs and trees alive all last summer.

Hey there are some realtors who see the big picture:
www.idahostatesman.com/273/story/275032.html
"Langford said his real estate agent has been after the couple to drop their price to $205,000. "He said that if we'd drop it to $200,000 it would probably sell tomorrow," Langford said."

These idiots let their house sit on the market since Feb. 07 because they won't drop $20K. They are underwater but still refuse to face reality. And the guy's career? He's a FINANCIAL ADVISOR. :(

P.s. Those clips are pretty hilarious!

Not financial advisor advice. :)

@justme

I'm not much of a believer or advocate of organized movements. At least not when they are the equivalent of tilting at windmills. In practical terms, we are just a bunch of bloggers with a set of strong convictions and a lot of logic and data on our side. But we are also a distinct minority, and not a particularly persuasive one. Of late we don't even seem to agree much among ourselves and we're usually represented by the fringe elements who sit around all day wishing as hard as they can for another Great Depression.

Sadly, about all we can do is keep on talking. And keep on rubbing the hypocrites noses in their own piles of dung. And not forgetting to try our best to live our own lives even if we are trapped on this ship of fools. But mutiny is out of the question. Remember how history has treated those who declare truths which others don't want to or aren't ready to hear.

skibum Says:

> I will say that my problem with flipped homes is that
> the rehabbing is usually done on time constraint,
> cheaping out with materials, and almost always in a
> taste I don’t like. So whenever I go to an open house
> that was clearly “flipped,” I will essentially immediately
> cross it off my list.

Then CLB207 Says:

> There are a lot of crooked people out there who give
> legitimate investors a bad name. The houses I buy are
> normally overlooked by the average buyer - as you say,
> if a house is obviously flipped, you would cross it off your
> list. Most people would also automatically cross an
> unrehabbed house of their list - especially with the overstock
> of houses in excellent condition.

I don’t consider anyone that actually renovates a home before reselling a “flipper”, but I agree with skibum and would probably cross a home off my list if it was just renovated to resell. It is not possible to buy a home, do a high quality renovation and sell at a profit just like it is not possible to buy a used car sell at a profit after doing a high quality restoration. A friend just paid $225K for a Porsche 356 that the previous owner bought for $100K and restored for $400K. Back in college I bought an sold a few VW Bugs that I bought for a couple hundred dollars and sold for $2K after a $99 Earl Schieb paint job and installing some Scherbas $39 seat covers and some other minor work…

RE: Flippers

When most people say "flipper" they aren't talking about a legitimate investor/renovation business. Renovators who operate legit biz's are enhancing the value of the homes they buy and sell. Most people are talking about the wantrepreneurs who have no idea what they're doing and yet have fallen ass backwards onto piles of money up until about 18 months ago or so, when the music suddenly stopped.

In liquid markets like commodity markets or stock markets, flippers (day traders) arguably add some value by providing short-term liquidity. But real estate is entirely illiquid, and speculation of any type harms the price discovery mechanism while adding no real liquidity. These behaviors are destructive (economically destroy real wealth), as we are witnessing this very moment before our very eyes.

Insofar as "preventing foreclosures", whether by a flipper dressing up a home enough to squeeze a little extra premium out of the price -- enough to save the distressed home debtor; or by government bailouts: these things do extreme damage to the health of the market and economy over the longer term. For every foreclosure we "save" today there will be three, four or more later. This is because we are denying the purging of "bad bets" from the books, as it were. Witness Japan's past couple decades as a real world example.

You may say "bad bets? these are real people who are losing everything!" Yes, bad bets. Something allowed, encouraged, even tricked those people into their current situations. Others are just unlucky. But the processes that led to this point in the first place will never be corrected so long as we continue to redistribute wealth away from those who chose differently.

In order to be proficient at option/future trading you have to walk, talk and LIVE it!

Sadly, the only way to learn options/futures is to lose money trading them. Seriously.

Beginner's luck is very dangerous in this area.

Not any kind of advice

The houses I am buying are not Porches, but I absolutely disagree you with you that it is impossible to buy, do a quality rehab, and sell for a profit.

Recent Ex.: Bought a house that the homeowners were very behind in their mortgage, had no means to get it up to date, nor wanted to continue to make payments on. They sold it to me subject to the existing financing, plus a small profit to help them get started again. The house was a total wreck. I would be happy to share the before and after pictures. Total cost to buy it, get loan back up to date, and rehab it: $44,000. We just got an offer to buy it for $72,500, minus $2,200 cash back towards the buyers down payment, after it has been on the market for 2 months. It is now a home I would be happy to live in, and the next buyer is getting a good deal .
Just a recent example. Not getting rich on that deal, however it is just one example of being able to buy at enough of a discount to rehab, and sell for a profit. We are not in the business of making exotic restorations - just bringing it back to the quality of the average home or better in that neighborhood.

Sorry, that comment was for FormerAptBroker.

Randy H - I hear what you are saying about a market correction. I am as much a believer in the need of a market correction as anyone here. However, at what point do these properties get brought back into general society. Just as you say that "saving a foreclosure" takes wealth away from those that are not foreclosing - how about the smart homeowners who live next to a foreclosure, who are seeing their property values lower, even though they did everything right? And at what point do we allow that foreclosure property back into society? Do we just ignore it, until after the Bank dumps it? Do we wait years before allowing it to be cleansed of the stink of foreclosure before buying it again?
What I am not doing is rewarding homeowners who are in this situation, nor am I subsidizing their lifestyles. They are getting just enough to move out and move on - if anything at all if there is no room in the deal for it, such as in a short sale.

P.s. If they get booted out of their home with nothing to fall back on, gets who foots the bill... the taxpayer, when they apply for government assistance.

CLB207

I have no issue with the market doing as it will. If the bank, investor and owner benefit from a short sale, all the better.

But I take extreme issue with:
how about the smart homeowners who live next to a foreclosure, who are seeing their property values lower, even though they did everything right?

Firstly, those owners aren't losing _anything_ unless they took some action to realize their "gains" by, say, cashing out some of their equity or otherwise borrowing against it. A common misperception, fueled by the real estate industry, is that if your home goes up by $100K you are $100K richer. No. You are only $100K richer when you sell for $100K gain. Until then, it is all unrealized. On paper.

I used to own Webvan stock worth nearly $250K. Trust me. I'm not $250K richer for it today.

Secondly, there is harm done to those who continue to make prudent choices by refusing to buy houses which are overpriced by all historic standards and by all affordability metrics. Just because someone finds yet another way to manufacture another fool doesn't mean anyone has been rewarded. All that's happened is you've put another fool into an unaffordable home, and you've denied a prudent family who's biding their time, saving, ensuring their own self sufficiency, that house at a reasonable, sustainable price.

Like gravity, fundamentals will bring bubble-prices back to regressive mean. All the rest is just the expenditure of a lot of fuel in an attempt to fight gravity. And I, in my current personal bias, do not wish for a soft landing. My family has made the harder choices and I don't wish a prolonged punishment for having made taken the saner path.

By the way, I agree with FABs analysis. I am extremely skeptical that short-hold renovators can make economic (true) profits in the current environment. Given transactional costs, labor costs, taxation (direct and non-avoided), financing costs, and opportunity costs/risks, it is fairly unbelievable that one is making a profit in excess of a fairly low-income, low-risk day job. Unless you're in the browning grain-belt or rust belt of the Midwest and you can also produce rental income.

The only reason these folks tended to make any money over the past few years was:

1. Abnormally low cost of financing.
2. Misreading/miscalculation of costs of risk.
3. Euphoric market conditions causing anomalous gains.
4. Violating loan covenants and/or cheating on taxes.

If someone wants to flip I say let him do it. Should we waste time on educating people?

Folks, don't forget the best part of raising the GSE limits and its effects on Used Home Salespersons -- it is temporary. Imagine, now you'll have to put up with your local Used Home Salesperson (and friends) telling you to take advantage of the opportunity before the rates expire (there not going to last forever!) And about those rates...
NEW YORK, Jan 25 (Reuters) - A key element of the stimulus package aimed at jump-starting the ailing U.S. housing market may have the unintended consequence of raising mortgage rates, said analysts studying the plan....

Increasing the eligible loans to $729,750 from $417,000 would change the characteristics of mortgage-backed securities, leading traders to exact a premium for increased interest-rate risk.

HARM, welcome. What are you doing in South Bay, do you have a job there?
And just to clarify, Citizen HARM will be residing in the East Bay (well, Walnut Creek, unless we can convince him to find his dream Craftsman near BART in Rockridge -- or West Oakland!)

Secondly, there is harm done to those who continue to make prudent choices by refusing to buy houses which are overpriced by all historic standards and by all affordability metrics. Just because someone finds yet another way to manufacture another fool doesn’t mean anyone has been rewarded. All that’s happened is you’ve put another fool into an unaffordable home, and you’ve denied a prudent family who’s biding their time, saving, ensuring their own self sufficiency, that house at a reasonable, sustainable price.

Like gravity, fundamentals will bring bubble-prices back to regressive mean. All the rest is just the expenditure of a lot of fuel in an attempt to fight gravity. And I, in my current personal bias, do not wish for a soft landing. My family has made the harder choices and I don’t wish a prolonged punishment for having made taken the saner path.

Amen. And thank God Randy H is back. :mrgreen:

RE: Rehhabber vs. Flipper, this is how I see it:

Rehabber = Professional, ethical, value-adding contractor/carpenter, white-hat, "good" guy. Generally works hourly by contract rate, or per job estimate to rehab someone else's house. Generally does not buy and sell the house himself, because --as FAB & Randy pointed out-- short-hold honest/ethical renovators can rarely make money in a "normal" non-bubble market, because the total cost of renovations (parts + labor) can rarely be recouped at a 1:1 basis, much less a profit, unless you have an army of slave labor and a pile of free materials.

Flipper = Person who buys and sells properties on a short-term basis, while adding little if any real value to the property. Ex: Casey Serin, David Crisp, etc. Profits obtained either by bubble markets, or by (much harder) locating properties that are selling for far below market value.

CLB207 Says:

> The houses I am buying are not Porches, but I
> absolutely disagree you with you that it is impossible
> to buy, do a quality rehab, and sell for a profit.

We have to define the word “quality”. I’m not saying that you can’t do a “decent” job quickly fixing up house and sell it at a profit (since many people like pre-fab cabinets, plastic moldings and fake wood floors held down with double stick tape).

Then Randy H Says:

> By the way, I agree with FABs analysis. I am extremely
> skeptical that short-hold renovators can make economic
> (true) profits in the current environment.
> The only reason these folks tended to make any money
> over the past few years was:
> 1. Abnormally low cost of financing.
> 2. Misreading/miscalculation of costs of risk.
> 3. Euphoric market conditions causing anomalous gains.
> 4. Violating loan covenants and/or cheating on taxes.

The main way renovators make money is make a turd of a home or condo look “nice” to people that know nothing about real estate and construction so they overpay. The rich people that know nothing about real estate will look at the sale “comps” in an area (like where I live) and not know that all the other condos have hundreds of thousands of upgrades done by wealthy people that spared no expense since they were going to live in the unit. A “quality” (and legal with all the permits) renovation will take close to a year (or longer), but a “decent looking” fix up can be done in a month (without any permits) with a bunch of illegals bolting in new crap from Home Depot and slapping on some paint before adding some crappy new Korean made appliances…

Bigger Than the Big Game!

It’s a touchdown at Talavera! Regardless of who you’re rooting for in the Big Game, you’ll win big this weekend – Saturday, January 26 and Sunday, January 27 – on a breathtaking new home at Legacy of Talavera in west Union City.

What’s the score? Regularly priced from the low $1,000,000s, our
Sale-a-bration is a rare opportunity to take 10% off the top on select homesites - yet live in top style. These exceptional homes are grand, offering up to approximately 3,957 square feet of living space and situated on approximately 6,000 square foot homesites.

The game plan is entirely up to you. Of the few homes still available, Legacy at Talavera gives you lots of wonderful choices. Select from
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Don’t miss the post-game activities. Take a stroll through our four-acre park located right in the community with an artificial turf soccer field, open grassy area, play area, and barbecue areas or any of the nearby city and regional parks. And be sure to check out our neighborhood retail hub,
Union Landing Shopping Center, with a theatre complex and lots of shopping and dining choices.

So get in “big game” mode and stop by. The Talavera information center is located at 4547 Novato Street in Union City, right off I-880 and the Dumbarton Bridge

Kick off is at 10 a.m. Saturday, January 26 and Sunday, January 27. And the field clears at 5 p.m.

We look forward to meeting you at our Super Sale-a-bration!

Best Regards,

Debra Hannon
Community Sales Manager
Legacy at Talavera
(877) 834-6541

As we all predicted, Harley is getting slammed by the Boomer pullback:

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/harley-profit-slips-customers-tighten/story.aspx?guid=%7B7EB44708%2DC7BC%2D49EA%2D9266%2D97B37A2F8B5E%7D

heh heh heh...

I agree with the Flipper vs. Rehabber definition. And, while I see where the skepticism comes from. Like I said, I am not working in inflated markets. One house we are buying at $15,000 in a short sale, in a market in which the average income is $20,000 per year. We will be able to rehab it for around $10,000, and current market conditions are $55,000 in that neighborhood. We will probably sell for around $50,000. All in all we should see around $20,000 in profit, within 6 months. I guess seeing is believing, and that is okay because I don't need you to believe for it to continue to work. You can help people, keep prices affordable, help speed up this price correction, and return properties to market conditions while making a decent profit doing it. Even in areas where there is mass inflation, you can still do this. You have to buy at 50-60% of current retail value, and plan at selling at around 75% of retail. This way, you are contributing to the correction of prices, while still making a profit.

Whew, DOW is down.

Hopefully the PPT will have a case of Friday and take it easy.

Alan Greenspan in conversation
Globe and Mail Update

VANCOUVER — Alan Greenspan, in conversation with BMO economist Sherry Cooper in Vancouver Thursday.

http://www.reportonbusiness.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080125.wgreenspan0125/BNStory/Business/home/?pageRequested=all

===========

Remember one aspect of the subprime mortgage is that it financed a very significant increase in homeownership amongst Americans. And I thought that that was a very important thing in society where property development is a critical issue. You want as many property owners as you possibly can have, and therefore I said subprimes are risky but it's worth the risk in my judgment. It's worth the risk for the value, really, and indeed I hope that in all the revisions that are going to occur as a consequence of what has clearly been a debacle of unbelievable dimensions considering the size and nature of the market, I hope that we don't bury subprime mortgages.

.....

That if you just say step back and say what specific action at this point would stabilize the financial system? I would say some alchemy can pick up all of these 300,000 units (unsold homes) and let them disappear, that would stabilize the market. I'm not suggesting that is probable. But what it does is it focuses where the nature of the problem is. Tax cuts are not likely to significantly support home sales. They may at the margin but the real issue at this stage is people are holding back from buying houses, prices are falling so there's more non-income related issues than purchases at home than there is in the general market.

Again, Alan Greenspan is my least respected person in 20th century history.

Walnut Creek? What are your predictions for that area - my friend caught a knife there a couple of months back, it seems a really nice area, but I get the impression foreclosures are rising?

I think it's a bit too far for my hubby to commute otherwise I would consider relocating there - mind you I hear the summers are hotter. However, maybe if the prices never drop here it maybe our only option if we really have to buy!

FormerAptBroker - there is a name for someone who puts vinyl floors down in a marble floor neighborhood, or puts formica in a granite countertop neighborhood - they are neither a flipper or a rehabber, they are an idiot!

At least if they expect to make market value in that neighborhood.

>> Again, Alan Greenspan is my least respected person in 20th century history.

Agreed. Alan Greenspan is the scamster of century. He has committed economic crimes for which no law exists to prosecute. In other words destructive monetary policy can not be prosecuted.

Looks like no PPT today after all - indices are all down. That means it's time for another "emergency" Fed rate cut, then, don'tcha think?

@Claire

Love this East Bay Area. Walnut Creek has really gone upscale. However, you might want to check on the school system comparing it to San Ramon which may have a better school system and which may be closer to you.Walnut Creek has lots of old homes which need constant maintenance. San Ramon also has lots of new homes which will probably come down in price even more than the "used homes" in this area. San Ramon is also trying to get get a town center approved.

If you choose a home in Windemere in San Ramon, just be aware of a higher tax base. Calculate the extra amount you would be paying compared to buying a home in another subdivision.

I love the summers here - warm occasionally but tolerable. Neighborhoods are relatively safe compared to many areas in the Bay Area. This whole area is a very family friendly setting, laid back, and lovely.

My guess is that it will take years for the bottom of the real estate market to occur. In the meantime, I would just enjoy not being a homeowner and save your money.

Peter P Says:
Alan Greenspan is my least respected person in 20th century history.

At least, with Hitler and Stalin, even if you did not like what they said, you could clearly understand what they were saying...

Claire Says:
Walnut Creek ... I think it’s a bit too far for my hubby to commute otherwise I would consider relocating there

I recall you were watching the Mtn.View area pretty closely. It seems to be coming down (slowly) - do you get the same impression? I am seeing listings come up in the Cuesta area that seem lower than before.

@Jimbo,

Thanks - I was relocated with my company (IT department), so yes, it's permanent.

SP - yep we are in that area, sales have definitely slowed and I think prices in the less desirable areas have come down a bit - but then there will be a couple that go for absolutely ridiculous prices - and Zillow - I don't know what's up with that site, but all the prices seem to have leaped up.
I was, however, heartened recently when I went on Realtytrac recently and viewed all the foreclosures on a map you can create on thier website, they are starting to creep into this area. Sunnyvale - wow - one of the areas we looked at a couple of years ago - a lot of foreclosures! Makes me glad we didn't buy there!

However, the asking rents in this area seem to have climbed which is a bit disheartening - we will just stay put for now.

My friend moved from Mountain View to Walnut Creek - to be closer to work and they have a nice house and are settled (which I envy). For us though, work is currently 5 miles away - so a move to Walnut Creek would entail a big commute. I am hoping to tough it out here, but I really wish the market would show more signs of cracking!

Interestingly, I find the retired Greenspan more open and straight forward than before. I watched his recent interviews and I could actually understand what the heck he was talking about.

Danville Woman - we will probably wait at least another year - however, I worry that my daughter would benefit from a better school. Moving rentals would mean a significant increase in rent, plus we have a dog, so our other option is for us to wait a bit longer until we can buy somewhere, meanwhile I keep having to make up for school shortcomings!