patrick.net

"I am principally against the idea of 'child support.' If the parents care about the kids at all they should not have gotten into a divorce."

huh? marraige is an agreement between adults, not the adults and kids. I know many happily divorced couples who enjoy raising their kids together while, at the same time, "not being married."

the sad thing about divorce is that it's a quick route to poverty so, pragmatically, most couples should probably learn how to live together under a different set of assumptions.

And that’s why ‘lowering interest rates’ increases liquidity.

Way oversimplifying here, but that’s the general idea.

"lowing interest rates" also, I'd imagine, drives up the multiplier rate so the same money is desposited and reloaned more times. and, if the same money is deposited and reloaned more often, the bank doesn't have to pay as much interest to attract money;

"It’s really unfortunate that it seems our government enforcement folks don’t have the resources to go after all those who falsified mortgage applications."

IMO, the government doesn't want to enforce the rules since their job is to sell credit crack to new junkies.

Divorce is certainly the sure road to poverty, that's why I want to see it made illegal.

I have always said that we need to make deadbeat dads (and moms) live in a military style boot camp and not let them out until they can prove that they are paying child support and spending time with their kids.

the biggest problem I have with "child support" is that, after the divorce, "economy of scale" is lost since it's more expensive to live apart than together. I've also talked to fathers who pay huge amounts for "child support" simply because the court ruled that their children should live in the upscale lifestyle they had before the divorce. of course, if the mother bad mouths the father, life begins to suck if you feel like you're going all out!

Neutron,

well, I think it is a sweet justice for those idiots who voted for Bush the second term. These people typically have no assets, no money, lowly educated and they will bear the most of the disastrous consequences. Their god will deliver them exactly what they deserve.

We the Bush opposers typically have started taking pre-cautionary move since 2004 to distance ourselves from such an ending, or even come up with ways to profit from the mess. We won't be around to help out the Bush supporters, they deserve what they will face.

As for you, since you are below 30, you can always consider emigration. Anybody who is educated and below 30 will be welcome by many countries in the world.

OO,

You're justifiably angry, but at the wrong demographic. Honestly, do you expect Joe the machinist in Kansas to be able to keep up with the growing convolusion of the finance world?

After reading some of your posts, you appear to be quite knowledgable on economy and finance. Perhaps you even have a job in a related area. This doesn't mean you know everything, nor does it mean you could do the job of Joe the machinist in Kansas. So why expect them to know how to do yours?

The choice in the last election was all about Iraq, plain and simple. Thats what people were told. They had no idea about the "fraud" going on in the financial world at the time, and they still don't... and won't until somebody tells them.

This is why we need truth from our government, and from the financial institutions that affect all of us. People are not as dumb as you think. If the truth was available to them they would make the right decision.

We actually need Pat Buchanan in the WH, fat chance esp. since he's not running. But that's the kind of leader we need. Basically I always vote for the biggest right-wing mofo, lol.

Fuzzymath,

>This is why we need truth from our government, and from the financial institutions that >affect all of us.

Waterboarding, anyone? ;-)

>People are not as dumb as you think. If the truth was available to them they would make >the right decision.

One important aspect of not being dumb is to know when you are being lied to.

Some people are not very good at recognizing lies and propaganda. That's why it is important that the news media do not all contain the same propaganda, which is what happened in 1996-2006.

@ Ex-sunnyvale-renter,

I hate right wingers with a passion. They are the @ssholes who got us in this place to begin with. I am from Texas, a state that is still doing well, and many people there hate right wingers too. It is the fact that we hate left winger liberals more that they vote for people like Bush.

Last election for president, I voted for Bugs Bunny after seeing what that SOB carpet bagger was doing in the Whitehouse. I was not going to give him my vote with all the illegal crap he had pulled. Bush is a fascist and not a true conservative like me.

I equate the oppressive desires of both the god squad and the peter puffers to accept "their correct" way of living with equal disgust. If I wanted to be in a theocracy, I would move to Afghanistan. If I wanted a bunch a peter puffers around me, I would move to France.

I am a moderate with fiscal conservative values, unlike what is now in the Whitehouse, and I have progressive ideas for economic and social development.

"Some people are not very good at recognizing lies and propaganda. That’s why it is important that the news media do not all contain the same propaganda, which is what happened in 1996-2006."

I get sick to my stomach watching the nightly news. It perhaps has gotten slightly better recently, but a couple years ago it was mindblowing. The media has turned into a massive borglike Michael Moore.

The thing that confuses me is why they do it? It's not like some evil man at the top of large media corporations okays everything that gets published to match with his own personal agenda. It goes all the way down through the media food chain.

Fuzzymath,

I'm just an amateur financial analyst and picked it up by necessity. One needs to know how money comes and goes, or he will be taken advantage of. Of course the fact that my wife is an MBA helps.

I am baffled by these "Kansas mechanics" not because of their lack of education, but because of their lack of independent thinking compared to their peers in the world. I traveled internationally often and talk to people from all walks of life. People without college degrees in UK, or Australia, or China, Japan etc. can see through Bush. Bush was widely seen as the worst President ever back in 2004, by people from all kinds of background outside of this country. We went from a country being revered and loved to a country despised and hated.

What I have concluded is, a significant portion of Americans (well, those hardcore 30% who still give a thumb up to Bush's approval rating) who are just plain idiots. They lack the basic understanding of good and bad, and can only follow whatever their church told them to do. Their cognitive ability is simply on another different level.

No, nutty, you just think you hate right-wingers. What you hate is neocons, and trust me, you do not hate them more than I do.

Real right-wingers, real Conservatives, are Nationalist, Protectionist, Isolationist. Our last Presidential candidates were Charles Lindburgh and maybe Goldwater.

Conservatives with a capital C are further from Neocons than Liberals are. Much further.

I voted for Bush in 2004. I'm proud I did, because the bigger threat was the uber-Neocon of all time, Kerry/Kohn and that harridan of a wife of his. That pair were truly scary.

Now, as I've said, we need a real Conservative by Pat Buchanan in the WH. Fat chance though. We'll end up with some neocon puppet, Obama, Hitlery, someone.

The only thing real Conservatives can do is ..... if you don't like what someone is doing, STOP PAYING THEM.

Tune in, turn on, drop out. As Ran Prieur advises, stay out of the Empire's way as it falls, and for God's sake stop feeding it.

If you don’t have debt, then go buy yourself a nice car.

It seems that both houses and US built cars (like Toyota, Nissan, or BMW) will be coming down in price. Thus, the money in the bank is "growing," even at 2-3% interest.

OO,

Bravo.

FuzzyMath,

So I think that the news was all propaganda from 1996-2006, and you think it was all propaganda from 2006-2008.

Some things just never add up.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/02/14/news/companies/privatestudentloans/index.htm?postversion=2008021512

People who are wondering where the next shoe will drop should look at student loans. The money is drying up fast, and it is student loan money that enabled outrageous tuition inflation for the last twenty years. The parents can't refi to send their kids to school anymore. That leaves student loans. If the kids can't borrow then they can't go. The schools will be suffering starting this fall, as qualified applicants fail to take their seats because the student loan companies are insolvent.

These schools prop up local economies the way overseas military bases do. Layoffs and halted construction projects will put the hurt on everyone. The government won't have the money to prop up the schools, and the bond market has collapsed so the schools won't be able to borrow directly.

The next big bailout is coming, right in time for the general election.

Ahh, student loans. I tool 'em out in the 80s, got eh, a bit over half of an engineering degree, and paid 'em back working as a repair tech. I think I was in about the last period of at least somewhat beneficial student loans. They were something like 3% to 6%. Banks were loaning at 8%, and looking back I wish I'd taken those and worked less, studied more, and got the degree. But the loans I had were about 10 grand, paid them off steadily then when I got a windfall paid off the last bit.

Now they're run for profit, students are encouraged to get into tons of debt, and they're using them for not very renumerative degrees like Art History.

There's a saying, "A degree in BS is better than no degree" and even an Art History degree holder can go to some 6-month school and get some skills that will enable them to make more than most non degreed people. So I'm of the school of thinking that any degree is good, and you ought to get one if you can.....

But we've had too many people in college, not enough Vo-Tech type training, and not enough recognition of skilled blue-collar careers so that there's been a huge push to go to college even for those whom it's not right for.

And all to the tune of huge profits for the student loan issuers, of course!

This is yet another area where the bubble's popping and people will have to go back to 1950s ways of doing things.

justme,

I actually agree that the new was pure propoganda from 96-06, but has gotten slightly better recently. Although it still makes me sick. Their propoganda now is more accurate, although still 2 years behind.

I think the internet is helping keep them honest. As time passes, a greater percentage of the population knows how to use it, and how to get real information out of it.

Despite efforts like this...

Due to budgetary constraints, the Economic Indicators service (http://www.economicindicators.gov) will be discontinued effective March 1, 2008.

to keep it from us.

OO,

>They lack the basic understanding of good and bad,

That is a fairly common problem in the US, were children are not thought good/bad or right/wrong, instead they are thought whether/not they are "in trouble".

I can't count how many times I have heard a parent say to an incorrigible child,

"if you do that (one more time), you are going to be in trouble"

when they should have said

"Do not do that. It is WRONG to do that."

The "whether/not in trouble" concept is recognizable later in life, where people seem to think it is not a crime unless you get caught for it.

People without college degrees in UK, or Australia, or China, Japan etc. can see through Bush.

You may be giving them too much credit. What you claim to be "independent thinking" may just be the result of those folks parroting back what their own news sources put out.

We went from a country being revered and loved to a country despised and hated.

Germany and France did get closer to the US during the last two years, however.

OO, FuzzyMath,

I used to feel really baffled why propaganda like Iraq=9/11 could get past American public and be used to start a war. But now I realize this country just deserve every bit of Bush's eight years.

AMERICA THE STUPID
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZaN6Rx8X6_I

HeadSet,

There may be some of that, but in a great many countries there is a free and diverse press that will, seen as a whole, present all the possible views, in a fair and timely (meaning: not 5 years into the war) manner. People are able to hear all viewpoints and make up their mind,

Careful not to give too much credit to general population to parse through the sophisticated misinformation out there. I'd say 95% of the US population doesn’t really see through at all. And the almost entire remaining 5% get to the truth only part of the time. I struggle through it regularly myself. Chomsky has a good filter.

Foreign nationals with little formal education have the benefit of not being subject to years of school systems that teach conformity and American myths, not how to think and hard truths. Nor are they subject to our propaganda machine since they were old enough to watch a TV. They are able to see through to the truth without having to let go of the years of intellectual baggage packed from the years of propaganda absorption.

This said, its been my experience that most third world sheeple seem to have a more sophisticated critical thinking skills than the average product of our domestic school system. My guess is this comes from cultures where global politics are often discussed and debated at length in social environments and where kids are free to think for themselves and solve problems themselves daily. Oversimplification here, of course.

Classic!

Refco went public in August 2005. It filed for bankruptcy just weeks later after disclosing that a $430 million debt owed to the company by a firm controlled by Bennett had been concealed.

OO Says:

> I am baffled by these “Kansas mechanics” not because
> of their lack of education, but because of their lack of
> independent thinking compared to their peers in the world.

As a car guy who has driven through over 40 states and over 50 countries I’ve talked to a lot of mechanics. While I’m sure that there are a few mechanics in the world that are true independent thinkers with a complete understanding of politics throughout the world most are dumber than a typical US redneck mechanic that went to public schools…

> I traveled internationally often and talk to people from
> all walks of life. People without college degrees in UK,
> or Australia, or China, Japan etc. can see through Bush.

The media reports that the guy has a approval rating of under 30% in the US and I have never met even a SINGLE person that really likes the guy her in the US (even at GOP Lead 21 and Lincoln Club events).

> Bush was widely seen as the worst President ever back
> in 2004, by people from all kinds of background outside
> of this country. We went from a country being revered
> and loved to a country despised and hated.

Bush did not make the world hate us (there were people planning to blow up the World Trade Center way before Bush was elected).

> What I have concluded is, a significant portion of Americans
> (well, those hardcore 30% who still give a thumb up to Bush’s
> approval rating) who are just plain idiots. They lack the basic
> understanding of good and bad, and can only follow whatever
> their church told them to do. Their cognitive ability is simply
> on another different level.

I’m sure that there are a few people in the US that think GW Bush is the greatest president of all time, but I’m pretty sure that we have more people in the country with IQs under 60. In many parts of the country people grow up in families where you “don’t speak ill of your family, religion, school or political party to others”. Once you get to know these people they may talk about the brother with the drug problem, the priest that chases alter boys, the football players that can’t read or a president that made some bad moves”…

Los of college shooting now a days -- looks like generation Y is getting angry.

oops, H3 went more negative from -8B to -18B

http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h3/Current/

FYI, rumors on the Internets (see socketsite.com) claim that freezing HELOCs are due to reserve requirements, which would make sense given the H3 situation. Can anyone here comment on reserves required for keeping a full HELOC line open.

PermaRenter - Americans are all levels are going to have a hard time adjusting to lowering living standards. It's sort of the American religion that things get better and better. The last generation where things got worse was during the Depression, and that only lasted about 10 years. We're looking at something like the end of the Civil War, with us all living in the South. Things were down and stayed down for what, 30 years? 1870-1900 at least but it stayed down longer than that. Sharecropping was still being done, yes by whites and blacks alike, up into the 1950s anyway.

The US is an uber-Calvinist, materialist country. It strikes are the very basic beliefs of almost all of us that no matter how hard we work, things are going downhill. Older cultures, those of Asia, India, and even Europe, are accustomed to hard times. Over in Europe they had things like the "100 years' war" for instance. In the US it's been up and up (for those of european descent) since the place was discovered by Europeans, with only a couple of hiccups.

We can expect a lot of seriously ticked-off people of all ages. Older folks go nutzo with guns too.

I'm certain this college guy was nutzo on his own though, not about the economy. Those really ticked off about the economy write books, essays, and blogs, they don't go out shooting.

Los of college shooting now a days — looks like generation Y is getting angry.

Doubtful. These shootings were done by broken brains.

People who are wondering where the next shoe will drop should look at student loans. The money is drying up fast, and it is student loan money that enabled outrageous tuition inflation for the last twenty years.
...
These schools prop up local economies the way overseas military bases do. Layoffs and halted construction projects will put the hurt on everyone.

QuietRenter,

Good point on that. But also, don't forget that it's universities and other "non-profit" institutions that provide much of the capital for hedge funds and VCs to do their thing. I know tuition itself is only a small part of the money used by colleges for investing, but it's important nonetheless. One might therefore expect to see effects on hedgie cash and VC cash flow, if this turns out to be "the other shoe."

As an aside, it seems as there are enough "other shoes" to drop in this whole credit mess to fill Imelda Marcos' closet!

How about a little municipal government tax revenue crisis to add a little accelerant to the RE fire. (I post here as this is going to be relevant nearly everywhere and will be of crisis proportions in a +20% decline environment)

My local paper Headline today; "The Party's Over". To a tax base that is already near revolt, a whopping 13.6% county property tax increase for 2008, which represents an average of another $640 annual to the average homeowners tax bill. Avg current assessed value $447,605. That's an average annual bill of $5,450. And it would seem that they tried to keep this real increase as low as possible, with plans to float almost $1.5B in new debt, even though their current debt load and service is critical and soon to eclipse the schools budget line item as largest expense.

I feel like I'm living in an existential play. I just want to say, "Ummm, do you guys have any idea what is happening right now in the credit markets and the reality of our national economic outlook?" Its a tragic ignoring of reality until it cannot be ignored any more, just continuing to spend, "nothing to see here folks, move along".

Local government is not good at downsizing, simply not constructed to function properly in a declining environment. Quote from county supervisor, "people have been taking tax increases for years, and can't take much more", and "there is real concern out there, there is shock at this tax rate".

So property values here are down 10% minimum, and I'd say have fallen off the cliff now with in a "complete liquidity destruction environment", a near frozen market.

Lots of unhappy sheeple around here.

but in a great many countries there is a free and diverse press

Justme,

In the US you can read National Review, Mother Jones, High Times, New Republic, Washington Post, Washington Times, watch CNN or FOX, or even get it straight from CSPAN. These media present vastly different viewpoints, and I'm sure you can think of others, such as Rush, Air America, and Alan Combs. Editorials in most newspapers over the years printed columns from people as diverse as Molly Ivans and Walter Williams. For those who blog, you can reinforce any political belief, from USSR worship to anarchy.

So property values here are down 10% minimum

Any chance that assessments are getting reduced? Doesn't seem to be happening in my part of VA.

I predict, the Federal Reserve will soon stop publishing H3 data due to "budgetary constraints".

HeadSet,

Yes, you *can* find alternative news sources, but that does not mean that any average Joe will read or watch it,. The alternatives are for the people that already know something is amiss with the MSM, and not for the average Joe.

CNN versus Fox? Made absolutely no difference during the runup to the war. CNN didn't dare utter a controversial word, and they still are wimpy as hell. CSPAN featured a bunch of frightened Democrats that had been whipped into submission by the unrelenting MSM propaganda about Patriotism and anti-american-weak-on-security-democrats -will-not-become-re-elected scare tactics.

That's how we ended up with this bloody war. And it is the same way we ended up with banking deregulation, by corrupt Republicans and corrupt Democrats that were afraid of being labeled as "anti-business" by the MSM.

I'd say a good spread of news sources for the US would be the MSM, never neglect them, then read The Progressive, Mother Jones, Pat Buchanan's blog, Grist, Counterpunch, see what the unmediated people are saying on Craig's List forums, Al-Jazeera english site, and also read the other major papers of the Anglosphere like those in England, Australia, Hong Kong, etc. I think that's a pretty wide spectrum and hopefully I've picked out a good one.

leave things like Alex Jones, Lew Rockwell, etc that have a definate axe to grind as opposed to a position, alone. You'll get the same news a few days sooner and better covered in the "position" sites than you will on the "axe" ones anyway.

The problem starts when heavy censorship of the internet in the US starts. There are just not that many pinch points to close off.

oo,

All I know right now is that that H3 number is scary.