patrick.net

Water is more golden then oil.

I think the best China play is food; the best energy play is water.

Forget technology.

Not investment advice.

And if you love technology, look into water technology.

Not investment advice.

It's funny when people ask me, what's the minimum I would work for and I say $0. Then they say, huh? I reply that my salary requirement depends on the kind of job, company, ...etc. I would be an astronaut for free, but a production planner for a company making silk flowers I want $60K per year plus benefits.

Hell Peter, let's just take some tap water, run it through a filter, bottle it, add a touch of sugar, throw a label on it, and fill the landfills with more plastic bottles. We'll make millions.

Forget the filter, my water will be promoted as having extra calcium for stronger bones.

Lord, what were homes in ID selling for in 2001?

Exactly what they should have been selling for - less than 2.5 to 3 times median incomes.

In 2001, Idaho median income was ~38k, so median house price would have been ~114k.

So now median income has went up by 20k, but median house price has went up about 100k. Factor in inflation, and there really is no way logically that Joe median middle class can actually afford a house.

and fill the landfills with more plastic bottles

Only if we get to build homes on the landfills. :)

But seriously, access to fresh water will be a hot topic in the near future. I will not be surprised if major wars are fought over blue gold.

Malcom,

I don't feel it's a matter of having anyone "pegged" it just seems the natural order of things these days. Employment doesn't seem to last until either we have the desire (or assets) to transition into full retirement.

I got started on the notion of an "encore career" after reading about it perhaps a year back. In fact, I've seen so much of this just enabling others to preserve assets and gracefully move on to the next phase will become a specialty in itself.

I would be an astronaut for free, but a production planner for a company making silk flowers I want $60K per year plus benefits.

I will NOT be an astronaut for any price. But I will consider being a Michelin food taster for free. :)

I wouldn't mind an encore career myself. The reason I am glad to be out of the "Silicon Valley" job market is that there you get a talking from the boss as a "slacker" if you punch less than 50 hours a week.

Oh and not that it's too late by any means it's just been my experience that the transition goes much smoother when you script your "encore" while still very much an active member of the workforce.

People are funny that way. If you're still shoulder to shoulder in the trenches w/ them and share that you're thinking about bailing and working on an idea (you'll get all the support in the world)

Mention the very same idea the Monday after your leaving and the response is.... "lucky you"....

The reason I am glad to be out of the “Silicon Valley” job market is that there you get a talking from the boss as a “slacker” if you punch less than 50 hours a week.

Really? I never "punched" more than 40 hours a week.

Right, 50 hrs. (not counting the commute!)

Here's what I've found:

Most guys that either get pink-slipped or burnt-out or are looking for a change (and don't have adequate resources) burn through their roll-overs just keeping up appearances. I think there's study after study that show many 401k's go into funding current lifestyle after a lay-off.

What I do is wake people TFU and tell them to SCREW "appearances". Up until now that's been difficult (especially w/ "MEW Dads") but now people are listening.

Let’s focus on food and blue gold

These thoughts were very much in my mind when I decided where in the US to bail out of Silicon Valley. The southwest is going to have a long slow period of troubles due to lack of water. This includes LA, Lost Wages, Phoenix, and many other currently overpopulated places. I decided upon Idaho for three reasons: libertarian politics, major producer of food of all kinds, and lots of water from the Snake and other rivers.

This includes LA, Lost Wages, Phoenix, and many other currently overpopulated places.

I repeat my laugh at Phoenix-area speculators. :lol:

I think everyone in the workforce should firstly (work like you could be fired any minute) that way you'll always have a job, and secondly work off the assumption that you WILL ultimately be let go.

That way there's no tears or surprises. Could we as a country actually be reverting back to the gentleman farmer? Seems everyone I know has their own vineyard, B&B, lodge/guide service (or in my particular instance) shows them how to make that happen.

OR.... you can blow your rollover making sure you maintain that enviable freakin' FICO score!!??

My personal SWOT

Strengths:
Strong FICO score
Clean background
MBA
Real experience
Long time resident
Good skillset
Thanks to buying right and Prop 13 I can undercut on salary if needed.

Weaknesses:
No real work for over a year
Last job was only for 6 months, prior to that longer periods of stable employment
Currently not working (inline with what you say, when you are working everyone wants you. Kind of like how girls are attracted to commited men, they know they're OK)

Opportunities:
Don't seem to quite line up with my goals

Threats:
Biggest threat to me is that I feel like I am a perishable commodity.
Being idle careerwise has definitely hurt me.

The bad thing in my case is that my strengths would normally put me ahead of others but EEO laws don't allow employers to consider strong credit, geography, youth, or criminal background as characteristics in selection because they favor whites and amount to indirect discrimination. So basically some schmuk with a DUI, lousey credit, who just arrived here but had a decent job somewhere less competitive than here seems to get by me. If they are female and a minority they will usually get picked over me.

Peter, Phoenix has always confused me. People bought ridiculous houses. There is no way that people who paid that much would actually want to live in Phoenix over other areas. I absolutely hate that place, not for any specific reason. I just don't see why anyone would live in a desolate, hot, crowded white trash city. It is a pit. There is nothing there that is redeeming or interesting. Just a bunch of straight wide roads with endless mile long strip shopping centers. Surrounding this stamped out Flintstone repeating background are nothing but liquor stores, strip clubs, and used car lots selling vintage 80s domestic made crap at "1/2 the legal interest rate!"

Malcom,

Thanks for the honesty. It really helps me. Since most working adults shun anything resembling a (God forbid) "career coach" most of what "I" see is ex post facto.

We know there were scores of equity locusts that moved up to Bend from Cali that started half-hearted businesses and really relied on the RE Ponzi. So again we know that won't work or certainly won't work indefinitely. In fact locals say many of the EL owned shops didn't even keep reg. bus. hours? If one doesn't have the resources to start an Aptera (cool car btw) one can certainly use their r/o to become a consultant to them?

I realize yours is a different scenario it's just that I feel a huge responsibility when you see friend after friend wind up w/ no career AND no rollover to boot!

I just don’t see why anyone would live in a desolate, hot, crowded white trash city. It is a pit.

And despite all that land in Phoenix, the McMansions are crowded in on tiny lots.

My favorite was "stamped out Flintstone repeating background are nothing but liquor stores, strip clubs" LOL!

I don't know how many here are old enough to recall but the Flintstones (TM) animation was very crude. So much so that motion was conveyed by a constant "scroll" in the background. Kind of like 70's wood paneling with the same "distinctive" faux knot every 3 feet.

Here are the latest numbers from the Case-Shiller Home Price Index (PDF). Massacre is about the only adequate description I can come up with. Stumptown, Seattle and Charlotte are the only cities that managed to stay positive year-over-year. Month to month numbers show a 3.2% drop for the SF Bay Area index. Don't worry, I'm sure its only seasonal :-O
Oh, and I just checked the CME website. Look like the ask on the Composite Home Index futures pushed out the recovery to Nov. 2011 (now that's rather funny, as this is where Randy's chart -- which I have been carrying around for over a year chart -- put it.)

I just don’t see why anyone would live in a desolate, hot, crowded white trash city.

Well, people thought it was cheap.

Never invest in something simply because it is cheap. It is "cheap" for a reason.

Not investment advice.

Sedona is very nice though, but it is more expensive than many places in California.

Peter P Says:
And speaking of haircuts, anyone see the action on GOOG today?
What happened?

Recession + Adblock = several consecutive monthly readings of rapidly decelerating click-through growth.

In a scenario where prices are only appreciating by 1% per year (or -1%), doesn't this whole prop-13 debate become less of an issue? The main reason why this is such a huge pain in the arse right now is that the prices have shot up so much.

If it were not for that, I would not find the inequity so objectionable if it helped a few old farts continue to live in the home they worked all their life to pay off. IMO, the root cause (once again) is the inflated tax _basis_, and not the tax itself.

Less hand-out’s/welfare/intitlements/”programns”/gove involvement …. that is the best solution. Just my opinion.

Absolutely. Welfare is the root of all ills in this country.

I like the idea of McCain picking AK Gov. Palin for VP, even though her name will always remind me of a Monty Python character.

www.spectator.org/dsp_article.asp?art_id=12800

I like the idea of McCain picking AK Gov. Palin for VP

Cool!

Ooh, she was born in Sandpoint, ID.

I am still thinking about doing a Sandpoint-Whitefish trip by Amtrak.

Conventional wisdom on this board sometimes seems very heavily slanted towards some strange fantasy, a pure capitalist state with low taxes, small government, eliminated wasteful sloth encouraging social programs, and no government interference.

IMHO this viewpoint is a bit naive in that it does not recognize the massive ills that go along with a state whose values are completely corrupted by unseen corporate players.

I have a fairly good understanding of unintended economic consequence, and believe we would be a better country if we spent 4 to 5 times as much on social programs. The problem is how we spend it, mostly.

Its remarkable how you don't hear too much about it, but spend some time in Sweden, Finland, Denmark, or France and compare the quality of life to our own. We do not measure up on nearly every metric of measure. Their "welfare" spend is significant greater than our own. How does one reconcile their success against our own? Maybe that spending is more efficient which I submit is a result of comparatively less corporate interference.

We actually need significantly more "welfare" spending! Just throwing out 2 cents in interests of balance. Not trolling.

NVA Renter,

Have you lived in Sweden, Finland, Denmark or France?

I have lived in Portugal, England, Italy, Turkey, France, and spent some time in Germany. The average Euro citizen does not have a richer material lifestyle over their American counterpart. I will admit that the Euros have more fun socializing. Europe also has far less fat people than America, despite the very good food.

Its remarkable how you don’t hear too much about it, but spend some time in Sweden, Finland, Denmark, or France and compare the quality of life to our own.

It depends upon what your definition of "quality of life" is.

I am a self-confessed food fanatic and yet I prefer US to most countries in Europe.

I have a fairly good understanding of unintended economic consequence, and believe we would be a better country if we spent 4 to 5 times as much on social programs. The problem is how we spend it, mostly.

Huh? Okay, if they can manage all those social programs with a 15% (state-federal) flat tax I will not complain.

We actually need significantly more “welfare” spending! Just throwing out 2 cents in interests of balance.

You are welcomed to volunteer additional tax on your return.

I will admit that the Euros have more fun socializing. Europe also has far less fat people than America, despite the very good food.

The undeniable fact is that US has a lot more billionaires than the entire Europe combined.

I have no problem with fat people so long as they buy two seats when they fly.

One more thing...

Globalization is inevitable.

Yet the combination of welfare state and globalization is deadly.

I doubt Europe can survive in its present form for more than a decade or so.

northernvirginiarenter Says:

> Conventional wisdom on this board sometimes
> seems very heavily slanted towards some strange
> fantasy, a pure capitalist state with low taxes, small
> government, eliminated wasteful sloth encouraging
> social programs, and no government interference.

Only an insane person or someone unwilling to work would want high taxes, big government tons of sloth encouraging social programs and government interference…

> IMHO this viewpoint is a bit naive in that it does not
> recognize the massive ills that go along with a state
> whose values are completely corrupted by unseen
> corporate players.

We currently have high taxes, big government tons of sloth encouraging social programs and government interference and a state whose values are completely corrupted by (unseen most) corporate players. Explain how higher taxes, bigger government tons more sloth encouraging social programs and more government interference will reduce the influence of corporate players?

> I have a fairly good understanding of unintended economic
> consequence, and believe we would be a better country if
> we spent 4 to 5 times as much on social programs. The
> problem is how we spend it, mostly.

There is no accountability in government spending so 90% of the money is just wasted. Have we won the “War on Poverty” “War on Crime” or “War on Drugs” yet?

> Its remarkable how you don’t hear too much about it, but
> spend some time in Sweden, Finland, Denmark, or France
> and compare the quality of life to our own.

If the US was full of white people of Swedish, Finnish, Dutch and French decent we would be a lot like more Sweden, Finland, Denmark, or France. There is not a single place in the US with a lot of white people of Swedish, Finnish, Dutch and French decent with high crime or high poverty, but there are plenty of places in the US with a lot of black and Hispanic people with high crime and poverty just like every black country and many Hispanic countries in the world…

Sedona is very nice though, but it is more expensive than many places in California.

Oak Creek and Big Park are 10-15 minutes from Sedona proper, and they have nice red rocks views as well. Here's a nearly new house with nice views for $400K.

http://www.realtor.com/realestate/sedona-az-86351-1094911399/

And here's a decent remodeled older house for $300K.

http://www.realtor.com/realestate/sedona-az-86351-1090867886/

Can you suggest some places in CA to look for someone who enjoys an "outdoor" lifestyle, no more than 2 hours from SF? This is a serious question.

STCM

Prop 13 makes me so mad I want to start punching every old person I see at Safeway. But your solution is worse. You only have to pay taxes if you don't have money. If you have money, you avoid paying the taxes.

Screw you, poor people!

Everybody pays the same taxes for property. If you're too much of a pansy to tell old people sell and move to cheaper properties when they're retired (or tell them to save for their goddamn retirement like I have to because you KNOW SS isn't going to be there when I'M 65), well, you can let anybody retired and over 65 and making less than half of the median income put their property taxes as a lien against the house, to be repaid when the house is sold/inherited/no longer a primary residence for Oldy McGee. Oh, and banks are allowed to make mortgages contingent on taxes being paid. You stop paying your taxes, and they can foreclose before the tax lien exceeds the equity. Don't like it? Pay off your damn mortgage.