patrick.net

I've posted a couple of times. I'm 37 and bought my house in 97. I've watched this bubble with alarm and thought it would pop shortly after the the dot com burst. I did not see rates falling as low as they did.

After my favorite bubble site (www.itulip.com) stopped its updates on real estate after calling the RE bubble in 2000, I searched for another and found the early version of Patrick on Google (typed in Bay Area Housing Crash!). Most folks dismiss my views as crazy but they did in Oct. '99 as well.
My views are less extreme than his and I think (hope) prices will revert to the 1999-2002 timeframe if there is a lending crunch.

I'm originally from India and enjoy all that the Bay Area has to offer.

I have also been lurking here for a short time. ;-)

After working almost 30 years in the SV high-tech field, I am moving on to my new career as an attorney practicing construction law. I figure that I may have a thriving business from the people who have purchased homes with construction defects.

I spent 30 years working for companies like Intel, ROLM, IBM, and Cisco. I think that industry will never see significant growth again.

My daughter who just graduated from Northeastern wanted to get an EE or CS and I said NO! Instead, she took my advice (I wonder why?) and received her degree in biotech.

She got her first job in MA., working for Wyeth Labs as a Jr. Scientist.

My point is that SV is becoming the next Detroit. Even the CEO of Oracle has made this statement.

Why would anyone want to buy an overpriced SV shack is beyond me, when the jobs in high tech don't support the kind of income

My point is that SV is becoming the next Detroit. Even the CEO of Oracle has made this statement.

Larry is not my favorite but I have to agree with him this time.

BUT, what about all of those "Silicon Valley is making a COMEBACK" stories I've been hearing for over a year now?

I have a friend who works at Oracle and he's been waiting for the pink slip for awhile. He says they're planning on outsourcing thousands of jobs in the near future. I hear this pretty regularly about HP and Intel as well, and this area is already starting to see some HP layoff's. It's funny, when I graduated college, everything was tech. All the new college graduates were so smug at the number of jobs availiable in their field and we'd always hear them say they wouldn't take an entry level job for less than $40K a year. I find it real hard to have sympathy for those guys now that they're scrammbling for jobs. If they managed to make the transfer to RE, I'll have even less sympathy for them since they're the one's that helped create the RE mess.

BUT, what about all of those “Silicon Valley is making a COMEBACK” stories I’ve been hearing for over a year now?

I heard that Detroit is making a comeback too, with those weird-looking semi-retro vehicles targeted towards the almighty boomer generation.

SactoQt, I believe Oracle's plan is to offshore most technical jobs. They have an impressive "compound" in India with room to grow.

So in other words, all those PeopleSoft people in Pleasanton who were offered jobs with Oracle back in January now have a false sense of security?

My friend who works at Oracle has met some of his Indian counterparts and he says they're way more educated than we are, and willing to work for far less. Some people seem to think only manufacturing jobs are getting outsourced, but there are a lot of brilliant people willing to work twice as hard for half the income. We should really be paying more attention to this.

Let me add, I believe most large companies will plan to offshore most technical jobs if at all possible. There are really very few reasons for them to keep jobs here. They must also offshore some middle management positions though.

I think anyone working in tech right now may have a false sense of security.

Yea, though I walk through the [Silicon] Valley of the shadow of death,
I will fear no evil: For thy Realtor art with me;
Thy broker and thy staff, they comfort me.
Thou preparest an auction before me in the presence of mine bidders;
Thou annointest my head with oil; My cup runneth over.
Surely goodness and prosperity shall follow me all the days of my life,
and I will dwell in the House of Eternal Appreciation forever.

There are literally millions of people out there (India, China, ex-Soviet bloc, ...) with equal or better technical skills that are willing to work for a lot less. Some of them are perhaps disadvantaged at this point in time because of language or cultural issues. However, many of them will overcome these issues shortly...

Harm

I'm speechless.

Harm,

Thou sayest

".Yet ah! why should they know their fate?
Since sorrow never comes too late,
And happiness too swiftly flies.
Thought would destroy their paradise.
No more; where ignorance is bliss,
'Tis folly to be wise."

--Thomas Gray
Ode on a Distant Prospect of Eton College

GP

Thanks for your input. I had no idea so many industries outsourced.

Any job that can be outsourced will be outsourced in the long run. It is a crime against Capitalism not to pursue the lowest possible costs. This is quite sad.

Yes, but salaries in India are growing very fast. Good experienced software developers are now $30-$50K in Bangalore, and some IIM graduates are getting offers of over $100K from US investment banks for offshored financial analyst jobs in India.

Face Reality, until their salaries catch up with us, there will still be incentives for companies to offshore jobs. On the other hand, the salary differential between the median tech worker there and the median tech worker here is still very significant. The future of such median workers is not to be ignored because they are the majority.

And even those top people are earning about one-third or one-fourth of their US counterparts. A good software developer earns about 90K to 150k. A financial analyst can earn as much as 400K, according to MarinaPrime.

Jack--
I would've like to see Marin in the 70s and 80s. I'm sure the place had a lot of charm--and still does--despite some moneyed overdevelopment. Although my intro sounds admittedly a bit like a cyber greed-head, we moved to this area to escape that culture and live amongst water, wildlife and Mt. Tam (some of those intangibles that draw people here). This place reminds me of Puget Sound a bit, which is still my favorite place on earth. I think our hometowns will always have something nowhere else can replace.

So you teach art--K-12 or college level? I've considered teaching a computer art/design class somewhere, but haven't yet looked into the process of getting there.

Btw, HARM--I'm a bit of a photoshop 'guru' (or so they say). Maybe in an inspired moment, I can throw together a visual commentary on the bubble.

Among other things, I have served the “evil empire” and was part of the Core OS team that wrote Windows 2000. So you know who to blame when you get the BSOD.

It is all your fault! ;)

Uhhhh....!
http://tinyurl.com/bszru
(no explanation required)

So why are you not already back living in Puget Sound? If you love the area, and can make whatever trade offs you need to make, why wait? (Or is there “the REST of the story”?)
Well, I do like Marin, we have family nearby, and decent jobs. Our home here gives us access to a lot of things we love--kayaking, nature, a healthy environment. If we couldn't afford living here, I might feel more inclined to move. As a substitute to moving, I was considering a vacation home up there--and that's how I found this site. Researching things out, I've concluded it's best to wait, and not extend myself financially for now.

Ptiemann...your name rings a bell...where you once a contributor to Epinions.com?
I still drop by there time-to-time; I've met a lot of cool people there.

Wow, MP you've come a long way --actually engaging in some give-and-take instead of the old typical "hit & run". Lately, you've been much less insulting, although still fairly arrogant and braggy (and I'm still not 100% convinced that you're not a 13-year-old claiming to be a $400k/yr investement banker), Nonetheless, I give you props for actually engaging in a two-way conversation for a change. Very "un-Troll" of you :-)

Harm

Look on the other thread regarding MP, very encouraging.

HARM, Here’s a thumbnail of who I am:

I am in my 50s, married with three kids, (two in college). Originally a gun totin’, horse riding semi-rural westerner who lived for the outdoors as a youth, I have long since lived & worked east of the Hudson River. I used to work in the World Trade Center – it was a great place, and I had a view of the Statue of Liberty from my office.

I am your basic capitalist pig. For 30 years I have worked in the financial services industry including about 10 years at the CEO level. I run a company with several hundred million dollars of annual revenues, of which about $50 million is investment income.

I was originally trained in economics and investment finance. I have been studying the economy and following the financial markets daily for over 30 years. I have been particularly focused on market cycles, interest rates and real estate.

Occasionally I speak at business conferences – usually on the topic of market cycles. Once in a while I meet with senators and congressmen when they are seeking input from business leaders.

I have always been very interested in real estate, and have made it the cornerstone of my investment portfolio during the last 30 years. The stock market has also been an important factor. I play the market cycles and have had good success (or luck) at market timing. I usually beat the markets in the good years, and mostly avoid the bad years. I buy and hold for longer periods of time rather than daily trading or flipping.

The blog world appeals to me because I greatly enjoy discussing issues relating to economics and real estate. I also find new sources of information, hear differing views and learn new things.

I am also a night owl…

Harm
Look on the other thread regarding MP, very encouraging.

Which one?

Sorry about that

Fuckedcounty.com (I really just didn't want to type in the profanity) :)

@Zephyr,

I am your basic capitalist pig. For 30 years I have worked in the financial services industry including about 10 years at the CEO level. I run a company with several hundred million dollars of annual revenues, of which about $50 million is investment income.

Hey, do you need a new investment banker? Someone, say... in the $400K/year range with a super-sized ego? (just kidding)
Thanks for the bio!

@Zephyr,

I was originally trained in economics and investment finance. I have been studying the economy and following the financial markets daily for over 30 years. I have been particularly focused on market cycles, interest rates and real estate...

I have always been very interested in real estate, and have made it the cornerstone of my investment portfolio during the last 30 years. The stock market has also been an important factor. I play the market cycles and have had good success (or luck) at market timing. I usually beat the markets in the good years, and mostly avoid the bad years. I buy and hold for longer periods of time rather than daily trading or flipping.

I may be repeating myself from an earlier thread, but are you or your firm mainly buying, holding, or selling your RE investment holdings right now (REITs, MBSs)? Not asking you to divulge any secrets/privileged information, just curious about where you think the overall market's headed.

@SactoQt,

Wow, I hadn't read the other thread since yesterday so I didn't see MP's new comments. You're right, it is very encouraging!

*Sniff*, our little 13-year-old, $400K/yr investment banker is really growing up...

The one very comforting thing about a potential housing downturn is the fact that it will happen over a 5-10 year period.

I never said that the downturn will happen overnight. ;)

BTW, MarinaPrime, you are sounding more rational and believable now. I do not expect you to become a bubblehead, but I certainly welcome some plausible contrarian opinions.

The one thing that bothers me is Patrick’s ‘The Housing Bust Continues’ title in his blog. It’s just not true. And when i see untruth, I will fight very hard to turn it around.

We have discussed this before... it is more of a title to quickly gain attention. It got you here, didn't it? ;)

So, unfortunately for many of you i guess, though it really is no big deal and should serve curiousity, I will continue to post examples of properties that i track for fun, that will defy the ‘housing bust continues’ argument.

Knowing that your intention is to provide counter-examples rather than to ridicule the participants here... how can I object to that?

The blog world appeals to me because I greatly enjoy discussing issues relating to economics and real estate. I also find new sources of information, hear differing views and learn new things.

Zephyr, thanks for spending time with us. Your views are invaluable to us.

I will continue to post examples of properties that i track for fun, that will defy the ‘housing bust continues’ argument.

Well MP, you certainly may, but I don't think anyone here doubts that prices are rising in most areas and have been rising a lot for a long time. That's not really a point you need to prove.

The questions us bears have been asking for a long time are very different: Are these price gains sustainable (in terms of income, equivalent rents & cash-flow)? Are they justified by fundamental demand (as in people who need homes to live in and not just flippers)?

MP, I guess it is our instinct to doubt everything. I will give you the benefit of the doubt anyway. :)