patrick.net

GP

Thanks for your input. I had no idea so many industries outsourced.

Any job that can be outsourced will be outsourced in the long run. It is a crime against Capitalism not to pursue the lowest possible costs. This is quite sad.

Yes, but salaries in India are growing very fast. Good experienced software developers are now $30-$50K in Bangalore, and some IIM graduates are getting offers of over $100K from US investment banks for offshored financial analyst jobs in India.

Face Reality, until their salaries catch up with us, there will still be incentives for companies to offshore jobs. On the other hand, the salary differential between the median tech worker there and the median tech worker here is still very significant. The future of such median workers is not to be ignored because they are the majority.

And even those top people are earning about one-third or one-fourth of their US counterparts. A good software developer earns about 90K to 150k. A financial analyst can earn as much as 400K, according to MarinaPrime.

Jack--
I would've like to see Marin in the 70s and 80s. I'm sure the place had a lot of charm--and still does--despite some moneyed overdevelopment. Although my intro sounds admittedly a bit like a cyber greed-head, we moved to this area to escape that culture and live amongst water, wildlife and Mt. Tam (some of those intangibles that draw people here). This place reminds me of Puget Sound a bit, which is still my favorite place on earth. I think our hometowns will always have something nowhere else can replace.

So you teach art--K-12 or college level? I've considered teaching a computer art/design class somewhere, but haven't yet looked into the process of getting there.

Btw, HARM--I'm a bit of a photoshop 'guru' (or so they say). Maybe in an inspired moment, I can throw together a visual commentary on the bubble.

Among other things, I have served the “evil empire” and was part of the Core OS team that wrote Windows 2000. So you know who to blame when you get the BSOD.

It is all your fault! ;)

Uhhhh....!
http://tinyurl.com/bszru
(no explanation required)

So why are you not already back living in Puget Sound? If you love the area, and can make whatever trade offs you need to make, why wait? (Or is there “the REST of the story”?)
Well, I do like Marin, we have family nearby, and decent jobs. Our home here gives us access to a lot of things we love--kayaking, nature, a healthy environment. If we couldn't afford living here, I might feel more inclined to move. As a substitute to moving, I was considering a vacation home up there--and that's how I found this site. Researching things out, I've concluded it's best to wait, and not extend myself financially for now.

Ptiemann...your name rings a bell...where you once a contributor to Epinions.com?
I still drop by there time-to-time; I've met a lot of cool people there.

Wow, MP you've come a long way --actually engaging in some give-and-take instead of the old typical "hit & run". Lately, you've been much less insulting, although still fairly arrogant and braggy (and I'm still not 100% convinced that you're not a 13-year-old claiming to be a $400k/yr investement banker), Nonetheless, I give you props for actually engaging in a two-way conversation for a change. Very "un-Troll" of you :-)

Harm

Look on the other thread regarding MP, very encouraging.

HARM, Here’s a thumbnail of who I am:

I am in my 50s, married with three kids, (two in college). Originally a gun totin’, horse riding semi-rural westerner who lived for the outdoors as a youth, I have long since lived & worked east of the Hudson River. I used to work in the World Trade Center – it was a great place, and I had a view of the Statue of Liberty from my office.

I am your basic capitalist pig. For 30 years I have worked in the financial services industry including about 10 years at the CEO level. I run a company with several hundred million dollars of annual revenues, of which about $50 million is investment income.

I was originally trained in economics and investment finance. I have been studying the economy and following the financial markets daily for over 30 years. I have been particularly focused on market cycles, interest rates and real estate.

Occasionally I speak at business conferences – usually on the topic of market cycles. Once in a while I meet with senators and congressmen when they are seeking input from business leaders.

I have always been very interested in real estate, and have made it the cornerstone of my investment portfolio during the last 30 years. The stock market has also been an important factor. I play the market cycles and have had good success (or luck) at market timing. I usually beat the markets in the good years, and mostly avoid the bad years. I buy and hold for longer periods of time rather than daily trading or flipping.

The blog world appeals to me because I greatly enjoy discussing issues relating to economics and real estate. I also find new sources of information, hear differing views and learn new things.

I am also a night owl…

Harm
Look on the other thread regarding MP, very encouraging.

Which one?

Sorry about that

Fuckedcounty.com (I really just didn't want to type in the profanity) :)

@Zephyr,

I am your basic capitalist pig. For 30 years I have worked in the financial services industry including about 10 years at the CEO level. I run a company with several hundred million dollars of annual revenues, of which about $50 million is investment income.

Hey, do you need a new investment banker? Someone, say... in the $400K/year range with a super-sized ego? (just kidding)
Thanks for the bio!

@Zephyr,

I was originally trained in economics and investment finance. I have been studying the economy and following the financial markets daily for over 30 years. I have been particularly focused on market cycles, interest rates and real estate...

I have always been very interested in real estate, and have made it the cornerstone of my investment portfolio during the last 30 years. The stock market has also been an important factor. I play the market cycles and have had good success (or luck) at market timing. I usually beat the markets in the good years, and mostly avoid the bad years. I buy and hold for longer periods of time rather than daily trading or flipping.

I may be repeating myself from an earlier thread, but are you or your firm mainly buying, holding, or selling your RE investment holdings right now (REITs, MBSs)? Not asking you to divulge any secrets/privileged information, just curious about where you think the overall market's headed.

@SactoQt,

Wow, I hadn't read the other thread since yesterday so I didn't see MP's new comments. You're right, it is very encouraging!

*Sniff*, our little 13-year-old, $400K/yr investment banker is really growing up...

The one very comforting thing about a potential housing downturn is the fact that it will happen over a 5-10 year period.

I never said that the downturn will happen overnight. ;)

BTW, MarinaPrime, you are sounding more rational and believable now. I do not expect you to become a bubblehead, but I certainly welcome some plausible contrarian opinions.

The one thing that bothers me is Patrick’s ‘The Housing Bust Continues’ title in his blog. It’s just not true. And when i see untruth, I will fight very hard to turn it around.

We have discussed this before... it is more of a title to quickly gain attention. It got you here, didn't it? ;)

So, unfortunately for many of you i guess, though it really is no big deal and should serve curiousity, I will continue to post examples of properties that i track for fun, that will defy the ‘housing bust continues’ argument.

Knowing that your intention is to provide counter-examples rather than to ridicule the participants here... how can I object to that?

The blog world appeals to me because I greatly enjoy discussing issues relating to economics and real estate. I also find new sources of information, hear differing views and learn new things.

Zephyr, thanks for spending time with us. Your views are invaluable to us.

I will continue to post examples of properties that i track for fun, that will defy the ‘housing bust continues’ argument.

Well MP, you certainly may, but I don't think anyone here doubts that prices are rising in most areas and have been rising a lot for a long time. That's not really a point you need to prove.

The questions us bears have been asking for a long time are very different: Are these price gains sustainable (in terms of income, equivalent rents & cash-flow)? Are they justified by fundamental demand (as in people who need homes to live in and not just flippers)?

MP, I guess it is our instinct to doubt everything. I will give you the benefit of the doubt anyway. :)

We have invested (a small allocation) in some commercial properties. This area is on the upswing after many years of oversupply suppressing office rents. We also do have a modest exposure to mortgages through the MBS world.

I prefer to not make any further comments about the company because if anyone figures out the identities then I (and the company) could be in violation of SEC disclosure rules if any of the info has not already been disclosed publicly. In addition, if I am identified I will need to severely restrict the scope of my comments about financial markets in general as these comments could be interpreted as company related. In fact, I would just stop posting.

So, personal investment strategies and housing markets are fine for discussion, but not company business.

If you can’t pay 100% cash for a car, you cannot afford the car. I’m not buying expensive cars… all are in the $4,000-$14,000 range.

I totally agree. However, being able to afford a car with cash does not mean that one will have to pay cash... considering that you only pay sales tax on the depreciation... also, a lease is essential a purchase with a put option to dispose at a fixed price. Just my $0.02.

And I definitely recommend good used cars. :)

Zephyr, let's keep discussion to personal investment philosophy then.

Btw, in case anyone here thinks s/he has it bad, check out Foghorn's links, especially this one: tinyurl.com/ag5ul

Kinda gives the term "crappy job" a whole new meaning, doesn't it? I'll have to remember this the next time I bitch & moan about mine.

Peter P: Thanks. I hope that some of what I post is of value to readers, or helps people to better understand the markets. Mine is not the only valid or useful view, but I do have a lot of experience with some of the points of interest, and I am careful about posting accurate information.

I don’t know anybody in the Bay Area who is a flipper…. b/c it’s simply too expensive here. It’s a ubiquitous lie, I tell you.

There may not be too many "flippers" in the Bay Area in the traditional sense. However, I do personally know several people who hold to multiple homes in the Bay Area (2 to 3). They would not have done so without the expectation of sustained high appreciation. On the other hand, they will have to endure large losses when the market corrects. They are certainly property speculators.

MP may not like me for this, but I just don't think you got it all figured out at 28. The markets have been so favorable the last few years that a lot of 20-somethings have gotten very lucky, and unfortunately very arrogant. I don't wish you ill, I hope you continue to do well. I just hope you temper your ego a tad with some good old fashioned common sense. There are a lot of risk takers out there who make it big when the conditions are right, but just as many lose it all when they think they can't make a wrong move.

So far I am "double safe" in that the topics are not related to the company and my identity is not known.

Time for me to sleep...

MP may not like me for this, but I just don’t think you got it all figured out at 28.

I am also only 28. :(

Everybody talks about flippers. But, the fact is, do any of you personally know 2.5/10 people who are flippers? I don’t know anybody in the Bay Area who is a flipper…. b/c it’s simply too expensive here. It’s a ubiquitous lie, I tell you.

Not a bad idea for a new thread, actually. Well, not being from the BA, I can't directly comment on how things are there, but I do know more than a few people from my area (SCAL) who are doing just that. One guy I worked with configuring routers at a previous employer just recently quit to flip FT in Riverside. The receptionist at my current company quit a year ago to get her Agent's license, and another IT guy I know got into condo flipping on the side about 2 years ago. Not all that unusual really.

Peter P

Do you think you have it all figured out? I sure as heck know I don't.

Bottom line, the 1998-2001 boom (stocks & property) has created much more wealth than can easily be estimated. This real estate ‘party’ is going to go on much longer than you think.

Can this "party" relocate back into equities?

Do you think you have it all figured out?

From the silliness of my comments you can probably infer that I have figured out nothing.

My husband got roped into doing a seminar this week for a business associate who's in the mortgage industry that's all about RE for investments. Truthfully, this guys a snake oil salesman who'd sell out his mother for profit. My husband tried to tactfully get out of it, but the guy does refer business to him, so he's going. Turns out, other people who are going as various "industry experts" are turning bearish on the market, so my husband won't be the only voice of caution in the room. Anyway, this guy won't turn down any loan that comes his way, no matter how sketchy the deal is, and a main theme of his seminars has to do w/flipping. I don't know how prevalent this is, but with websites like condoflip.com, obviously there's some flipping going on out there.

Peter P
I should have winked at you on that last comment. I know you're not a 'know it all.' :)