patrick.net

@Peter P,

I think he meant this.

I had a customer come in the shop a few days ago that needed a shaft for a machine. No biggie. It had a spline, a few seal diameters and a gear cut into it and no heat treatment.

When I was working on cars I was always amazed by what local San Jose machine shops could do. I built a Lotus 7 replica, which entailed scrounging up many driveline and brake parts. I scrounged the right rear end from a Ford Cortina GT but had to have it shortened on one side so the pumpkin was centered in the chassis. There was a guy down by the SJ airport that did this as a matter of course - both the housing and the related half-shaft - and he did it quickly and for some cheap price.

I have to admit I'm not a gloom-and-doomer myself. Somehow the English-speaking peoples have muddled through for millenia. See Churchill's 4 volume set and the recent volume 5 by Andrew Roberts. Thrift and paying attention got my grandparents through the Great Depression in good order.

Hey, now, let's keep it civil, not so personal, m'kay? Don't bash someone at least until you get to know him personally.

And then you can punch him in the face.

Kidding, of course.

Ok, "someone" just got un-invited to the next Patrick.net BBQ :-( .

DinOR :

The conventional wisdom in bubbleblogging world is exactly that. US is so F'ed up, all the jobs are going to be lost, we have nothing left and blah blah blah.

I am with you man. When have we said that we don't have any issues to solve ? When did we disagree that US needs to change some things significantly ? We are simply pointing out a few positives, and how things can turn around ... and oh man. When SP provided the some data, it's not to be trusted because it's from the Govt ?

Sometimes I feel that people use these blogs just to vent out. That's OK. So not all debates will lead to exchange of ideas and mutual learning.

Well sorry, but my biggest problem with the pure free market is that it "is what it is." It is a shame which is why I do believe that we should make it serve the society and not the other way around. I have a very specific ideology I developed in researching my thesis where I believe that the free market acts like a coral reef on the infrastructure and innovations brought about through the collective contributions of the society. I agree with Peter that it is what it is, as in the state of nature. You can't really put a value judgement on a war between ants and termites, it is what it is. As human beings aspiring to some sort of enlightenment and social progress, we have the ability to influence the natural (free market) environment. When regulation is done properly (no interference with free movement of prices, or unacceptable infringements on liberties) you get a generally free society with overall prosperity. Left unchecked capitalism starts to resemble any other failed totalitarian system.

The Original Bankster Says:
March 13th, 2008 at 1:36 pm
"how about a Patrick.net paintball match?"

I am so there!

I agree with Peter that it is what it is, as in the state of nature.

Yep, that's what I meant.

When regulation is done properly (no interference with free movement of prices, or unacceptable infringements on liberties) you get a generally free society with overall prosperity.

That is the secret sauce that nobody has figured out yet.

Or people are on blogs because they are retired and like to debate topics of interest.

And the cure for high real estate prices is high real estate prices not government intervention.

I remember a speech that Jorge' W. gave back during the boom where someone in the audience asked if he was concerned about the run up in housing.

He stood there at the podium, swaggering from the neck up and said," If houses get too expensive, people just won't buy 'em."

Well, hmmmmm, geeeee, they seem to have lost that clip. I would love to see that on the evening news again.

IT is what it is.

Long ago we did a thread on "How did you stumble upon Patrick.net" and overwhelmingly it was due to our questioning the status quo.

"RE only goes up!" etc.

I guess what keeps me here is that I always sound "fresh" to the people I run into on a daily basis. Later today I'll work Voltaire and the origins of the word cretin into conversation and people might actually mistake me for being 'somewhat' sophisticated. ;0

Well, maybe everyone does have an inner self that is more extreme that what we choose to show, if we have to attach our names to our opinion permanently.

I think blogs allow people to be themselves. I won't say half the stuff I said here because I need to be politically correct, diplomatic, considerate or whatever in the real world where honest opinions may harm my relationships with other people. Imagine telling your friend who just bought a home 2 years ago that you think this was the stupidest thing you've ever heard? Of course you would congratulate him, patting on his back on what a great buy it was, bring gift to the house warming party and praising the "nice house" to no end.

Richmond,

I believe the original phrase is; "Nothing cures high prices quite like high prices".

Insert commodity ______.

What OO said.

Thanks. I thought it was something like that.

DennisN Says:
March 13th, 2008 at 1:46 pm
"Or people are on blogs because they are retired and like to debate topics of interest."

Or people who were right all along but were such a small minority to the general consensus that they sought out like minded people.

Oops, as usual DinOR beat me to the punch. That's why I looked for this site.

StuckInBA,

We're hopefully working past that. About a year back I couldn't even post at Ben's blog b/c the slightest upbeat comment drew scorn from the regulars. They no longer had perma-bull trolls to feed on so they started feeding on each other. No thanks.

Btw, I don't think it's limited to bubbleblogs either. I don't believe there's anything inherently wrong with any of us. If homes were well affordable and our payments were 28% of pre-tax income... this (nor other BB's) would exist! Why? To protest the high cost of gardening supplies?

There wouldn't be any common thread at all. I happen to agree w/ much of what OO, Peter P and others share in regards to our currency and the mess in general. I guess I just don't have the stomach to look at it every day any more.

OO, I agree with you as well. I think there is something to be said about a forum where people have the same voice (no one can really outshout anyone here), and there is enough anonymity for people to really express what's on their minds.

And when were faced with the prospect of being wrong we can’t respond with quasi-witty one liners that don’t mean anything.

Huh? The prospect of being wrong is not scary to me.

Life is not about being right. It is about living.

DinOR Says:
March 13th, 2008 at 2:02 pm
"I guess what keeps me here is that I always sound “fresh” to the people I run into on a daily basis. "

I've noticed that too. It is interesting how expert we do sound to the people we encounter who've only read or watched the mainstream media on this subject. Most people have no idea how the CDOs and MBS played into the bubble. Most people have no idea how the fundamentals for housing work. Most people don't understand that not everyone is the same, no matter what happens there are always at least a few winners. The information with the collective contributions of the links make the regular readers here way ahead of the markets. It is actually quite interesting to think about how much time someone would have to spend to find all of that information on their own.

I've never read the Wall St Journal. In fact I look at people who read it in public as trying to appear informed. Honestly, I get my news right here, often times I know the news regarding housing a day before I see it on the news.

I’ve never read the Wall St Journal. In fact I look at people who read it in public as trying to appear informed.

I like FT better. It is pink.

Imagine telling your friend who just bought a home 2 years ago that you think this was the stupidest thing you’ve ever heard?

Well it's all in how you say it.

I have a friend from high school who went to law school right out of college and has been an "ambulance chaser" plaintiff's tort attorney since 1977. He's always made great gobs of money but it never seems to stick. For example, a few years ago he and some friends each put up 6 figures each to buy a racehorse from some breeders in Mexico - a "sure thing" race winner. Somehow a month or so later this horse was stolen and the cops think it ended up back in Mexico.

In early 2007 he leveraged all his assets and purchased several large commercial buildings in the LA area. He told me "LA was special and commercial real estate NEVER went down". I argued with him for a long time but he would never listen to me. I hate to think what's happening now but I wouldn't be surprised if he ended up bankrupt.

So yes I would tell my friends that they are nuts (politely) and no, we all aren't heading for financial armegeddon - just the get-rich-quick types.

I found you folks during my search as to how a fast food frycook bought the 1/2 million dollar house down the street from me. I had no idea that what happened with lending could have happened at all. I'm old school. It's been quite an education.

Oh, by the way, he lost it in '07.

I think blogs facilitate much more honest exchange than real world social occasions.

Before I open my mouth at a party, I have to figure out who is banging who, who divorced who, who works for what company before I start catering my "opinions" to make them all happy, anticipating what they would like to hear rather than what I like to say. Even if you are at a rather intellectual exchange, you still need to watch carefully the repercussions of saying certain things because you don't know how it is coming back to bite you in the ass, just in case you are running for Mayor some years down the road.

Here, I don't know anybody's background and I don't care. A name is only as good as his words. If someone is consistently saying valid things, then I start to read more from that person, this is the ultimate meritocracy. One still needs to worry about credibility in the anonymous world because if you keep churning out crap, even the virtual ID will perish rather fast.

As Original Bankster is talking about the intellect on Patrick.net, I'm flipping the channels on TV. I stopped on the Ellen Degenerous (sp?) show, why I don't know, and there were a bunch of fat women tied up trying to catch marshmallows hanging from a string. That's pretty much the general intellect out there, that's probably why I keep visiting.

That's sort of my point, yes there is anonymity and people can mouth off all they want about how great they are or were at this or that but I've got my list of regulars here who know what they're talking about, even when I don't agree with someone I still respect them as bright.

Some old criticisms I remember were that this site was biased......etc. But I don't recall at anytime trying to purge out the housing bulls. I remember at times we were saying things are quiet when there weren't any critics. Genuine opinions seem to have always been welcomed in my memory.

The odd thing is that the Internet really isn't an "anonymous" forum. You can be tracked even though you think you can't. I've said many things here which, when Googled, will lead you directly to my real name, address, and phone number. I'm sure most of us here have the same thing. Administrators have access to IP addresses and can more quickly do the same, or bar offending trolls.

TOB,

can you please give me some links to these readings?

What gives me the biggest kick is when someone makes a statement or prediction that is so contrary to what society,in general, is gnawing on and it comes true. That will never get old.

A lot of this is as simple as cookies and databases. When I go onto Amazon, they always suggest books and music which are frighteningly close to my political or cultural tastes. And nowadays cookies are "global". When I go to a newspaper's website which I haven't read before, they already know what city I live in.

Here is a reading for you, the H3 data that was just released.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h3/Current/

HELP UP Paul Adolph Volcker, You are our only Hope!

As far as being anonymous goes -

I've always believed that if you wouldn't say it on CNN, don't say it here.
They are watching

I know anyone can be tracked down. By anonymous I just mean that you can say something that you wouldn't normally say in a pc world. I don't think people should hide behind their computers and spout garbage, I just mean someone can say a race related comment, or a gay comment, or a political policy comment and not A, get their ass kicked or B, get fired or sued C, offend or insult someone personally.

For instance, I'm not going to mouth off about scumbag brokers at my friend's cocktail party full of brokers and agents, I'm going to come here and tell everyone that I was at this gathering and this is what I heard...

I am more PC here than in real life.

In a nutshell, it is a level playing field. No one can outshout, or use a position of power, or intimidate another here. It is the most impartial way to exchange ideas. The only way to gain respect here is with sound points unlike most other venues where you would find yourself debating something.

When I go onto Amazon, they always suggest books and music which are frighteningly close to my political or cultural tastes.

Let me guess... Naked Lunch and Das Kapital?
(kidding)

TOB,

I only read Techcrunch to know the latest that people are talking about. Sometimes it is hard to keep abreast of the web2.0 craps.

However, I think the general direction of web advertising is perhaps, wrong, if you look at the big picture. It is so consumption driven, but American consumers are running outta dough and credit. No matter what kind of gimmick you offer, outta dough is outta dough.

The focus should be learning, not spending.