patrick.net

BAI

I'm trying very hard to sit in the sunshine, and will try to provide a little more than any I might have inadvertently provided in the past. I'm breaking out the mid life crisis tommy bahama shirts all next week, which may help. My own mother has indicated that she feels she needs medication after talking to me about these issues, I'll call this a clear red flag. :-)

Agreed on real conundrum, that is it. The most interesting takeaway for me from Bush Bernanke emergency appearances today was absolutely ZERO reference to prior "you guys should let people off the hook, reduce balances proactively, or you might suffer even worse losses as price decline accelerates. Be careful what you wish for (credit to HARM)."

Markets will not recover or turnaround until faith returns. To me, it seems we've completely lost control of the situation. I think I would be happy with a Japanese lost decade at this point. The attempt to manage a 3 year *give or take* decline (safely assume this is defacto US economic policy) does not seem a possibility anymore. Housing prices are not catchable and no viable tool exists to put a floor under them, and the freefall is on. Price stickiness is out the window.

NVR :

Don't worry. We will have 1% cut on Monday morning when the Asia markets start exploring depths of Pacific ocean.

We will have 1% cut on Monday morning when the Asia markets start exploring depths of Pacific ocean.

Hopefully the Asians will have a nice weekend. :twisted:

Citigroup just indicated they think there is a strong possibility for a FED cut that EXCEEDS 1%. Completely uncharted territory folks.

I have fear.

I have fear.

Fear of $2000 gold? LOL :lol:

Just heard from a friend from Livermore who had bought a house for about 270K and was appraised around 470k some time back and now it's appraised to 250K. One of his neighbours has maxed out equity to 450K and is read to walk away from his house (He is perfectly capable of making his mortgage).

All this talk about bailout is pushing people to walk away. Game on!

San Francisco sales are up because there are literally hundreds of high end condos coming on the market. There is a huge pent-up demand for housing in San Francisco, since 2/3 of the population rents. I guess some number of those people are looking for $1M 1100 sq ft "luxury" high rise apartments.

I personally don't see the appeal, but I guess if I was single and raking in the bucks, it would make sense to me. There is more wealth in San Francisco than any of you realize.

This spring the market is finally cracking in Noe Valley. One of my neighbors bought a house in 2001 for $650k and fixed it up, complete with a real gas lamp in the front of the house. I keep wondering if he will end up burning down the neighborhood in case of an earthquake. Anyway, he is asking $1.3M for it and is not seeing any interest. This place is very nice, but it is 1000 sq ft tops and on a very busy street (Church). Last spring he probably would have gotten it though. This spring it just sits. He claims he is just going to pull it off the market if he doesn't get what he wants, and I believe him.

So there is kind of a stand-off in the market. Though I saw a tear down go for $950k last month, so we are still a long way from affordability. I suspect that this is finally the year when we are going to see the fortress, at least in San Francisco, start to show cracks.

Oh, I don't think it was mentioned here, but our esteemed host is quoted in the cover article of Business Week.

Under proposed bailouts, responsible people lose and have to give their money to gamblers, liars, and sleazy lenders," says the widely followed Patrick.net housing blog.

Good work Patrick. Strange they didn't attribute it to you.