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OO Says:
Why will someone pay more than $2 for BSC if a benchmark deal paid $2 in stock for the same darn thing?
Rumors that Joe Lewis' Tavistock Group is planning to mount a counter offer to take BSC private for $ 400M. It didn't make sense to me why he would do that (since he may not be eligible for the 30B gift from the F'ed), but that may be it?
northernvirginiarenter Says:
There simply is no secondary market for mortgage backed securities.
The market _is_ there, just not at the price the sellers can accept. Sellers are hoping to find a sucker who will pay the pretend valuation - just like bay area housing.
Duke says: Another thing to think of is this: How solvent is the Fed? I think they have 800 billion.
I've been using using OPNs (other peoples numbers) and saying that the Fed will have 300 to 400 billion dollars left when all announced measures have taken place. Not sure "they" are right as I now think some "double count" the increase in TAF and repos (by not subtracting out the existing balances).
Starting out
here it looks like the Fed holds ~710 billion in US Treasury securities + ~$90 billion in gold, currency, and "other assets" .
$800
- 40 (increase in TAF from $60 -> $100)
- 40 (increase repos from ~$60 -> $100)
- 200 (TSLF)
- 30 (JPM special lending facility)
--------------------------
$490 billion left
- ? (opening the discount window to non-depository primary dealers)
So it looks like we'll have ~1/2 a trillion dollars for the investment banksters to blow through at the new and improved discount window. Set your phasers on stun; shoot to kill.
"remember, our country is increasingly populated by people who are not only not invested in our financial success, theyre not even invested in our culture."
You know, I think there is some truth in this. A Chinese parent at my kids' school was talking about the weekend Chinese immersion class her daughter is taking. She quickly explained that it is for ABC kids, "American Born Chinese." Not Chinese-American. American Born Chinese. Maybe it is just a difference in phrasing, but ABC seems to imply Chinese kids who happen to be in America, as opposed to Chinese kids who are growing into being American kids of Chinese heritage.
RE: Chinese immersion class
I have no problem with that if schools are private-run.
Seems like nothing happened over the weekend doesn't it?
I don’t know what their capacity or depth could possibly be but it would seem (again) obvious that their resources at this point would be strained to the breaking point. Shoring up a 200-300 pt. sell off is one thing, plugging the damage being created by the re-set chart goes beyond the imagination.
Probably silver and I vibrate at different frequencies. I just cannot feel silver.
It certainly feels different.
Eliza,
perhaps you should happy that this Chinese parents is wasting her child's brain power and time on Chinese immersion class because it will prove completely useless. Well, if your kid is in the same class with her kid, your kid will have one more casualty below him/her on the forced curve.
Chinese are just very pragmatic people, they do the weekend immersion class not for patriotism (to China) but for potential profit. I heard so often among the Chinese community that they think China will become some sort of superpower so learning Chinese is a way not to be left out. Similarly, lots of elite Chinese kids in China are going to English immersion classes, every day (not only during weekends), so that they won't be left out. If China goes poof, I assure you lots of these Chinese immersion thingy will fold.
I am not sending my kids to Chinese immersion class not because I am not patriotic to (US or China, or one way or another), but because I think China will go poof so that I don't want to waste my kids' time. I may send my kids to Russian immersion class though.
Chinese are just very pragmatic people, they do the weekend immersion class not for patriotism (to China) but for potential profit.
If one thinks China will become a superpower, should he just invest in resources that China needs and lacks?
China is so full of liabilities, aka people.
I was trying to learn Russian and I could almost order a piroshki.
(But I almost ordered vodka instead of water.)
If one thinks that China will become a superpower, one should move his ass over to China and start building connections now.
If one thinks that China will be a flash in the pan, then invest in commodities to take advantage of their hastened rise because it is much easier to get out of commodities than Chinese stocks.
OO
Why do you think China will go poof and how exactly will that work?
But I almost ordered vodka instead of water.
I thought "vodka" was Russian for the word "water".
NVR,
too big of a topic to discuss on a blog. In short, it cannot replicate what the US had prior to its rise, namely, it doesn't have the same resources per capita, same group of self-selective immigrants, a good political and economic framework. There are very few countries in the world that can emulate the American experience, the best that China can do is Japan, but it won't even achieve that.
The next candidate to replace the US is more likely either Russia, or a fairly ignored country, Australia (which will take a bit longer for the population size to catch up). Population is the easiest thing to solve, if you have a good piece of land, lots of resources, and a good social framework, you can pick and choose the youngest, brightest and hardest working immigrants from all over the world. A country stuck with a big, complacent population who are not brave enough or capable enough to leave their homeland, and therefore facing depleted resources has no chance of becoming a superpower.
Guys, I'm reading some of your posts regarding foreign food shortages and our weakening dollar. I came to a pretty scary realization. Oil prices are high because foreign countries are willing to pay the price, they have stronger currencies and we fuel their economies. This could easily transfer to food. The last thing we want is to be competing with foreign currencies for our own food supply. American food companies will choose to sell to whoever can pay more, just like oil companies do.
OO, that's interesting about buying ahead. I was just thinking futures might be something to educate myself on.
Malcom :
I expressed similar thoughts regarding the food in the previous threads and DennisN put it best "We are Saudi Arabia of food". The competition for oil, water and food will keep getting intense. Nothing we can do about it.
I really want to invest in companies that own agricultural land in US. There are hardly any. So I am stuck with the choices like MON which right now seem way overpriced.
Thx Skibum and Stuck!
I've been slaving away deep in rennovations. It's a money pit at present...but I'm happy. I'm gonna hunker down and wait out the recession.
There are times I feel this world has gone crazy. My landlady was such a horrible person--glad to be rid of her. But thanks to this blog ---you guys helped me survive my almost 3 years as a renter!
MON is evil. They are behind the suicide seed genetics that will lead to many thousands of human deaths around the world. Holding Mon is therefore also evil.
RE: Monsanto
Interesting court case in Canada a few years ago...went to Canadian Supreme Court...upshot is that if Monsanto's proprietary pollen happens to blow onto your crops, you can expect to pay Monsanto several hundred thousand dollars per year in licensing fees. Never liked them since hearing that.
The level of control they would like to have over the world's food supply scares me.
I kind of wonder whether Australia mightn't have significant mineral wealth in those deserts. Particularly given the way technological needs change.
Yeah, I knew an Indian guy in college who had the most amazing American girlfriend--Olympic level swimmer, smart, very impressive woman, and he loved her--but his parents kept pressuring him to go back to India, just for a few weeks, just to see the family. He finally went and came back married 3 weeks later. He never looked very happy after that. So far as I know, though, he did stay in the US, start a business, contribute to the community, continue to put down roots. And that's fine by me, except of course that his personal life was probably not at all what he wanted. Poor guy.
However, I do see it as a problem when people come into this country, or any country, as economic tourists. It sucks to be colonized.
May we gird our loins and face the future knowing we lead the men of OFEC.
This day is called the Feast of Crispian:
He that outlives this day, and comes safe home,
Will stand a-tiptoe when the day is named,
And rouse him at the name of Crispian.
He that shall see this day and live t'old age,
Will yearly on the vigil feast his neighbours,
And say "To-morrow is Saint Crispian":
Then will he strip his sleeve and show his scars
And say "These wounds I had on Crispin's day."
Old men forget: yet all shall be forgot,
But he'll remember with advantages
What feats he did that day. Then shall our names,
Familiar in his mouth as household words
Harry the King, Bedford and Exeter,
Warwick and Talbot, Salisbury and Gloucester,
Be in their flowing cups freshly remembered.
This story shall the good man teach his son;
And Crispin Crispian shall ne'er go by,
From this day to the ending of the world,
But we in it shall be remembered;
We few, we happy few, we band of brothers;
For he today that sheds his blood with me
Shall be my brother; be he ne'er so vile,
This day shall gentle his condition:
And gentlemen in England now abed
Shall think themselves accursed they were not here,
And hold their manhoods cheap whiles any speaks
That fought with us upon Saint Crispin's day.
Every time I go to the World Ag Expo, I make it a point to go by the Monsanto booth and just be mean and rude, ask loud nasty questions to draw attention to the scam. I have the ass to back it up and I've never been arrested. The genetics, the rBST---nasty stuff.
StuckInBA Says:
March 17th, 2008 at 6:22 pm
"Malcom :
I really want to invest in companies that own agricultural land in US. There are hardly any. So I am stuck with the choices like MON which right now seem way overpriced."
Sometimes something overpriced does make sense if you have some certainty about the future. I don't have a guess on this, but a lot of things being said here are supporting a future where higher food prices should be viewed as the most likely outcome, borderline definite outcome. How does that company look to you if you double their revenues?
I wonder if the money I invested in those two books of Forever stamps is going to turn out to be a smart investment?
I am calling Citibank to be the next one to go bust. I really thought they would be the first but I was wrong. I figure the arabs will grow tired of bailing C out everytime they have a liquidity squeeze.
EBGuy Says:
I’ve been using using OPNs (other peoples numbers) and saying that the Fed will have 300 to 400 billion dollars left when all announced measures have taken place.
If the F'ed is really chasing interest rates down (as opposed to setting the rate, as most people believe), then they could actually go down _TO_ 1% tomorrow - that's where the treasury rate is hovering...
Why do we expect immigrants to be invested in the US as a country when basically we are only importing them to exploit them in our pyramid schemes? It does not surprise me one bit that they just want to make a quick buck and get away.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/03/17/BUFOVLGLT.DTL
Fear and doubt spread in Silicon Valley
Interesting... Here's another somewhat rambling discussion about the state of the economy... Patrick.net get's linked.
@lunarpark,
I and others were predicting this last year - I recall several, including Randy, who claimed VC money had some degree of immunity from overall economic hard times, as that is mostly private equity wealth. So much for that claim.
Do the backers of Vulture Capital firms just have lots of cash laying around, or do they have to leverage personal assets?
Isn't it just possible that "liquidity is a coward"? If the timing isn't right, why roll it out?
Love to stay and chat but I have to "pre-flight" the helicopter. :(
Time to kick the tires and light the fires!
> I wonder if the money I invested in those two books of Forever stamps is
> going to turn out to be a smart investment?
If they get honored in the future, they're a great inflation hedge. Buy all the stamps you will need for the rest of your life. OTOH, the post office could "default" and say "Forever? We meant a couple of years..."
Re: vodka, I think that literally means "little water" and voda means water. I took one term of Russian, taught in German. A nightmare. Only class I ever failed.
Do any of the Chinese speakers have an interest in translating the main crash.html, crash2.html, and crash3.html into Chinese? I have them all in Spanish and 2/3 in Russian now.
VC typically loads new companies up on debt as it maximizes tax releif. VCs typically use a lot of leverage, and yes, leverage is hard to come by these days. You can 100% bet that VC money in BA is going way down as at lot more actual capital, not just borrowed money, has to go into the pot. This intensifies the risk and a lot more business ideas just will not make it past the hurdle. The article that stated biomedica looks oka for now is right on. Health will be one of the last ideas to fail the start-hurt hurdle. In the end, the pension funds, and VC pools of capital have no problem taking their money off the shelf and into somethng safe, say the Euro, until the can reset their risk models and be certain of adequate capitalization. A lot of good ideas will be shelved until such time as we are down with the monetary contraction.
Hey, welcome to the business cycle.
do they have to leverage personal assets?
Maybe the present casual attitude toward debt will go out of fashion. Then we will see a return of the less flattering terms for pledging ones assets toward a loan.
"leveraged personal assets" will become "further into hock"
"liberated equity" will be "pawning the house"
Any form of morgage should be refered to "the house is still in hock"
OO was asking why anyone was buying BSC at 4 dollars. You can see why now.
Today's link to the article, how bad is this mortgage crisis goign to get should be mandatory reading.
Kruegman is very good.
He is estimating 25-50% declines in home prices, 20 million homes (nearly1/4 of all homes) will go into negative equity, he i betting we are in recession and will not feel a recover until June 2010, or later.
However, he points to the advantages to a weaker dollar. Which are signifacnt. My only insight that was left out of this artcle is this: the fixed income crowd is getting hurt by this finaincial crisis. We may see large 'un-retirement' parties, and delayed retirement from the workplace.
Duke,
If your scenario plays out, someone who packed savings into a bank (not stocks) for a house purchase should do OK.
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From a reader:
Wow, is this true? The Fed is now printing money to pay Wall Street bonuses?
An alternate explanation I heard is that Bear is somehow essential to the mechanism for the Fed's money creation, but I don't understand how that works.
Patrick