patrick.net

Overnight (March 31 to April 1), there is a 30% jump in inventory search results in the Fortress (Cup/LosAltos/Saratoga) area in my saved searches on Zip realty. Prices seem all over the place, but there are some noticeably lower asking prices in the new bunch of listings.

Is it just the "spring bounce" or did something happen?

I have a friend who lives in livermore and had bought a home for about 270K around 2003. It was appraised to 470K around 2005. Now it's appraised to 250K. One of his neighbour has maxed out equity to 450K. He is ready to walk away although, his equity has gone to other investments. I am sure he is waiting for the bailout or he will walk away and buy a home on his wife name. Either way he gains.

sa,

Therein lies the problem. Just being under water on your mortgage can't be the sole determination. Hell, Bill Gates probably over paid for his home! Should he be eligible? LOL.

The only way I could get on board is to have a "Uniform Application For Mortgage Relief Benefits Form" that takes into account the borrowers complete financial profile. Only fer chrissakes let's make it like FICO scoring where certain determining factors are PFM (Pure F@cking Magic!)

Obviously it would be tied closely to your last two tax returns. (This eliminates the Liar Loans) If you lied there, don't look for relief here. Make this "form" a mandatory requirement for anyone seeking to re-finance, period. Make it a lengthy and painful process (kind of like a VA Loan) with TONS of supporting documentation.

Your FHA REFCO (Refinance Score) will determine what (if any) payment relief you may get and what portion of the deficient payment will be added to the back end of your loan and whether or not (in certain cases) where you will be asked to vacate the property immediately and the PROPER procedure for completing your Deed-In-Lieu. Since the process will be somewhat secretive relief filers won't know if they're getting a free ride on some payments or a visit from the sheriff.

This will keep the "throw your hat in the ring filings to an absolute minimum. We will tabulate your scores and have your answer with 90-120 days. In order to qualify you must remain current on your mortgage payments. Your filing this request does not in any way excuse from your contractual obligations.

SP,

I would hold off on an assessment of the market. It's more or less typical for inventory to creep up through the "spring selling season." It's really a matter of how much of that crap moves. I have noticed in the areas I'm tracking that, even though there are occasional under agreements, it is a LOT slower than I would have expected - as in 1-2 homes UA per week, despite being in the "prime" spring market.

And this is in the ultra-Fortress...

SP,

I didn't see a bounce with the abruptness you describe, but I did not check cupertino and saratoga. I did however see a 40-50% gradual increase in listings in some other fortress cities over the last 2 months.

“spring selling season.”

April is the cruelest month. :)

There is so much inventory that I have stopped looking.

There is always the fear of missing out on buying a better house for the same money. :)

dinor,

As complicated as it can get with all details to be worked out for bailout, this person is waiting to see the details of the plan. My belief is, a bailout wouldn't help this person much. Prices have gone down over 40% and a bailout will mostly have provisions of govt getting back any appreciation on the house. He still stands to benefit by walking away and all the equity he has taken out, he can buy the house in same neighborhood cash down!!

sa,

Oh I'm sure of it! With as jaded as the avg. American housing-consumer has gotten over the last decade no one among us can account for their every contingency plan.

Hell, half of these people had a back-up plan going in. "If it continues to go through the roof I'll..."

A. Cut the lawn
B. Rent it out
C. Flip it
D. Rent it out (but claim as "primary residence")
E. Do a lease/option
F. Torch it and blame it on the Earth Liberation Front

Additionally, perhaps in 2004/5 one could have gotten away with buying a new home BEFORE selling the old home but I don't see that in today's credit environment? I don't know the particular situation but the only way a guy could put the "new" home in his wife's name alone is if she QUALIFIED on her own! Any joint app. would show a credit report and a VERY recent foreclosure. Not happening.

Oh and I forgot, they WON'T KNOW what the "details" of the plan are! I would make it so you can file to "see if you qualify for benefits" *not "this is what we're offering" (see if you can "shoe horn" yourself into that description)

That's absolutely paramount! We need to make it clear up front that only a certain percentage of filers will get relief (of the portions they're visioning) Again, "PFM".