patrick.net

Teachers are . . .an intersting mix of under and over pay.

To begin, it is aweful.

With their union, they get increases every year until they retire. Their merrit is based on years alone. Eventually they will be at max scale - which I believe is something like $100k after 35? years.

Then, they get benefits and FULL PAY with Cost of Living adjustments. Forever.

They have the kind of retirment plans that bankrupted the auto idustry, was bankrupting the Fed civil servant system until they fixed it, is bankrupting cities with firefighters and police, and will soon be bakrupting the state. Especially since Calpers (the state retirnement system) bought a bunch of the mortgage backed securities. . .

Teachers are certainly wayy behind the salary curve for many, many years, but WOW do they have great retirements.

Any teachers out there feel free to correct me since I have not looked at this in at least a coule of decades. Sionce then I have only hearsay stories.

looks like there is no stopping of oil prices until they see a real big drop off in demand.

The second (and biggest for me) question is who else (other than the banks) is stuck with these “investments”, particularly abroad.
Off the top of my head... there were a couple of small towns that did (or almost) went bankrupt in Norway. Early on Italy claimed some pain and several German banks were hit hard. BoC also had some limited exposure. And those are just the institutions who had to admit it as they were hit hard enough....

The only criticism I have seen of the This American Life piece is that it seemed to go with the "subprime, its contained" meme. Then again, the underbelly of this beast was so ugly, I suppose, they didn't want people panicing in the streets.

I imagine San Jose has a similar problem.

The beauty of inflation is that it allows the GOVT to steal your purchasing power no matter what. It doesn't matter if you save or spend, earn or leech, bury your money in the back yard or put it in a bank, the govt can always steal your purchasing power!

At this point in time I have 2 words for teachers:

hazard pay!

"Perhaps it is time to privatize the fire departments."

Not a new idea. I know that in Chicago we still have buildings with a sign attached at the front regarding the private fire insurance coverage for the 19th century. That's how they did it "back in the day"

The problem is that safety is a public good. For example, Mrs. Oleary or Peg leg Sullivan causes a fire of a barn,etc.. that spreads to a neighbor without insurance. No one is contracted to put that fire out and so it spreads to the next property and so forth until it is out of control even for properties covered by private fire protection (insurance).

Bap33,

You can say about any profession what you just said. That is a very lame excuse for not paying teachers well.

Re: Police and Firefighters.

Their pay should be relative to the median income of the area. I'll admit that the compensation is way to high for many counties. Unfortunately, all solutions are unpleasant for everyone involved.

Not to put down their hard work and sacrifice, but fire/policemen make do with modest salaries in other areas of the country.

I don't know. I think paying teachers more would be a good thing. If the wages were competitive you'd have a lot more applicants. I taught before I had my daughter and I hate to say it, but tenure is baaaad. It makes teachers complacent and unmotivated. I think that the competition a higher wage brings would result in a much more motivated workforce.

Their pay should be relative to the median income of the area.

Thanks! That is a good way to say that their pay should be decided by the market. :)

OT apologies, just can't let the vaccination discussion from last thread stand.

It is absolutely irresponsible to vaccinate children without an understanding of the risks. Fact is, vaccination DOES cause onset of autism in a subset of children. It is not even a subject for debate.

I've researched it myself extensively, and there is no way that I would vaccinate my children based on what I now know. It may well be that the greater good is served by the suffering of the few, but no russian roulette for my kids.

Some on this list seem to buy the "company" line without question, which is the equivalent of buying the AAA MBS ratings. Just because someone says it is so does not mean it is so. It is easy to dismiss as a conspiracy theory by those that don't really understand the complex machinations of interests and influence at work.

One must understand how our medical research establishment is corrupted by special interests to understand the current case study base and direction of research.

Draw your own conclusions, but Healy is in a better position to judge than anyone on this board. While she doesn't say that it is a direct casual relationship, she acknowledge the enormous pressure and meddling of the financial interests at work on the science and public health establishment.

Quoted today, CBS news, former head of NIH.

Dr. Bernadine Healy is the former head of the National Institutes of Health, and the most well-known medical voice yet to break with her colleagues on the vaccine-autism question.

Healy said: “There is a completely expressed concern that they don’t want to pursue a hypothesis because that hypothesis could be damaging to the public health community at large by scaring people. “First of all,” Healy said, “I think the public’s smarter than that. The public values vaccines. But more importantly, I don’t think you should ever turn your back on any scientific hypothesis because you’re afraid of what it might show.”

Bap, you can't pay teachers according to results unless you give them the authority to enforce the discipline required to achieve said results.

In addition to discipline, schools must also be able to expel students at will. This way, bad apples can be removed. There must be powerful incentives for students to learn, or else.

On the other hand, juvenile delinquents should be locked up.

Back on topic again.

What inflation are you talking about ? There is no inflation - just see the latest CPI. The gubbermint says that the gasoline prices actually declined. Pay no attention to prices on the pump. It's all illusion. Repeat after me, "gas prices are down, gas prices are down, gas prices are down ..."

The hedonic adjustments, seasonal adjustments, ignoring upwardly volatile food/energy prices - thank God we have enough intelligence to trick ourselves into believing anything.

Any "welfare" should be used to help people help themselves. If they do not want to help themselves, let them eat cake.

Is Obama Too Far Left on Taxes?

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/Vote2008/Story?id=4852958&page=2

Me think that all three candidates are too far left on taxes. Any president who allows the existence of social security tax is a centrist at best.

It may well be that the greater good is served by the suffering of the few, but no russian roulette for my kids.
Oh boy, this is sounding more and more like the Prisoner's Dilemma from game theory. I think we're hosed :-)
BTW, I probably did come down hard on the Waldorf parents. They're from the "thermisol generation" and I might have had second thoughts with my own kids if that was still around. I think vaccination schedules are probably the important issue to pay attention to now.

OO and others, there was a very good thread on CR yesterday regarding Non-Borrowed Reserves and the Fed's Balance Sheet. I learned a thing or two. For instance, you can pledge subprime credit card receiveables at 60% of value at the discount window (or TAF).

SBIA,

I say, give us a 10 year of Paul Volcker, we can be even with rest of the crowd.

Paul Volcker on Inflation

northernvirginiarenter,

>Fact is, vaccination DOES cause onset of autism in a subset of children. It
>is not even a subject for debate.

False. No current research proves this theory. No matter how many times you repeat it, there was no link found between autism and vaccination.

> Draw your own conclusions, but Healy is in a better position to judge
> than anyone on this board.

Healy did not prove you point. She merely suggested that there is a certain lack of research on some side effects that might affect some subgroups of children. She is saying that officials do not want to scare public. People are easily scared and if they see an article with a headline like "SCIENTISTS HAVE FOUND A LINK BETWEEN VACCINATION AND FATAL BRAIN MUTATIONS" they won't read the rest of the article that tells a story about a single case of a poor kid in Nicaragua but will stomp each other on their way to the courtoom. What't worse, they will stop vaccinating their kids endangering not only them but the rest of the population. Just like it happened in Sweden with pertussis (1979–96), Netherlands with measles (1999–2000) and Nigeria with polio, measles, and diphtheria (2001 onward). Children and adults started to die en masse due to virtually extinct illnesses after the immunization programs have been stopped or weakened.

Your kids are your responsibility. Just do me a favor and lock them up in a Waldorf school if you decide not to vaccinate them, I don't want my kids to die because of polio outbreak.

RE: autism

At risk of being ridiculed, I still have to say that it is all in the stars.

Peter P,

Would you entrust the care of your child's health to an astrologer or to a doctor?

I intend to fulfill all legal requirements. But I would like to trust an astrologer.

Of course, we still need doctors for physical surgeries.

*** Not medical advice. ***

I support vaccinations though. The potential reward seems to outweigh any potential risk.

Remember, "scientific" studies can be constructed to show anything. Do not underestimate the corruption of Science.

BTW, Evangeline Adams was able to prove to the satisfaction of a trial judge that astrology has the "dignity of an exact science" in 1914.

Too bad mainstream science will continue to vilify astrology because of its inconvenient conclusion.

Loooooong time lurker. Great site Patrick.
Actually the investing comments are what I like best. Odd for a housing bubble site? I've made some money thanks to posters here. I ran across something I've never heard of in 15 years of following WallStreet. I immediatly thought of your site, anyone here heard of CEDE & Company?
http://www.commentamerica.com/

So many good quotes from Volker today. Hard to pick a favorite, but this one stands out.
``The Federal Reserve as other central banks is obviously taking onto its balance sheet a lot of mortgages these days,'' Volcker said. ``Well, the creators of the Federal Reserve system would be rolling over in their graves if they knew the Federal Reserve is buying mortgages.
Oh heck, how about one more since this is an inflation thread.
``If we lose confidence in the ability and the willingness of the Federal Reserve to deal with inflationary pressures'' and buttress the dollar, ``we will be in real trouble,'' Volcker said. ``That has to be very much in the forefront of our thinking. If we lose that we are back in the 1970s or worse.''

Peter P,

You are in rare form today, even by your own standards :-)

Exhibit A: >>Remember, “scientific” studies can be constructed to show anything.

Exhibit B: >>Too bad mainstream science will continue to vilify astrology because of its inconvenient conclusion.

Regular neo-libertarian trolling not working anymore?

Huh?

I am the resident mystic, don't you know? :)

BTW, I consider myself a free-market conservative with a libertarian slant. I am not a too big of a libertarian.

I have a few questions for the pro-privatization camp.

What is privatization exactly? I gather that it means our city and state services like education, police and fire departments, should be given over to bid by private firms and run tax-free. (Please correct my definition of privatization; I'm trying to learn what that term actually means).

In a private venture, the goal is profit. Right? How does a police department, fire department, or school district show a profit? And if I don't like the customer service I'm getting, can I really go to another police or fire department or transfer my kids to another district?

Your thoughts are appreciated.

Absolutely. Without a bit of inflation to 'grease the wheels' of the economy the incentive to invest is diminished. If the investment climate looks even moderately gloomy, and inflation (yes, of the monetary type) was not a worry, might as well keep your savings in a mattress. It's not altogether a bad thing though. In case you haven't noticed, the past century has been the most prosperous in history by a long shot, and since the Great Depression has been seen the longest stretch without 'panics' ever.

Some new developments I watch are finally cracking on their prices. My belief is that this will have a profound effect on the resale market. When you can buy new much cheaper than 20-30 year old homes most would chose new.
I think the 5% in Feb Case-Shiller (yes a single month) scared some builders. They are begining to look at the realistic holding costs for 2 years of chasing at least 1 percent drop each month. They are listing today at 20% of their last 2 years of asking price. Seems to me they are factoring in at least a 30% drop in those 2 years.
It is very nice to see that market forces are much more powerful than the bailout market manipulations.

It is very nice to see that market forces are much more powerful than the bailout market manipulations.

But that is the invariable truth. ;)

TO privatize public safety is a bad idea in my opinion. I want a cop that is a cop because he has the heart of a cop, not because he likes money.

We still need to make sure that cops get paid enough (market rate) though. Police corruption is rampant in countries where cops are underpaid.

In a private venture, the goal is profit. Right? How does a police department, fire department, or school district show a profit? And if I don’t like the customer service I’m getting, can I really go to another police or fire department or transfer my kids to another district?

Your thoughts are appreciated.

Easy, there are multiple police and fire services in each municipality. If you don't pay their "protection fees" they bust into your house, rape your wife, kill your kids and then burn it to the ground.

If you don't like this arrangement, you are free to start your own fire or police service to out-compete them.

Ain't the free market grand?

Bap, that is why it is especially important to have conservative judges in the Supreme Court.

I don't know why the left cries about losing liberty. All they can lose is the liberty to infringe upon the liberty of others (e.g. infanticide, forced charity, atheism, etc)

Peter P,

Umm, how is atheism infringing on liberties of others again?

If teachers are not allowed to talk about God...

Remember, even if people try to preach, one always has the freedom to ignore. I am not a very religious person anyway.

You are oversimplifying First Amendment's Free Exercise Clause vs Establishment Clause controversy that is specific to public schools.

"Teachers, as agents of the government, may not indoctrinate students in religious beliefs" - or in lack thereof. On the other hand teachers, as citizens of the United States, cannot be barred from exercising their freedom of speech.

Balancing these two basic doctrines is a very difficult and sensitive task.