0
0

Interest Rates Must Rise Before They Can Fall


 invite response                
2008 May 29, 12:54am   23,411 views  236 comments

by Patrick   ➕follow (59)   💰tip   ignore  

Hi Patrick,
thought it would make for an interesting write up if
someone highlighted the difference between the housing
downturn in the early 80's vs today.

Back then, inflation was rampant and the only way to
stamp it out was through very high interest
rates--which subsequently pummeled the housing market.

Once inflation began to improve, it would have been a
great time to buy property as interest rates
dropped--spurring cheaper credit and ultimately
raising the value of real estate. (As opposed to the
NAR propaganda of "now being a great time to buy"
because interest rates are low)

Fast forward to today. Real estate is in a downward
spiral while inflation rages. The only way to contain
inflation will be a return to Volker-esque interest
rates.

Problem is, housing is in free fall. I suspect what
the Fed is trying to do is create a floor under
housing through inflation, then raise interest rates
to tamp it down.

While many economists see a recovery after another
10-15% devaluation of real estate, no one has touched
the potential long-term implications of current(and
near term) monetary policy and its effect on long term
price appreciation (or lack thereof) in the US market.

The net effect of this policy will be a long,
sustained bottom of prices that will not appreciate
again for years due to necessary increases in interest
rates.

It will not be until AFTER interest rates have been
raised substantially and then begin to reduce again
will we see another substantial increase in the value
of real estate in the US.

Any thoughts on why this hasn't been covered yet?

Best,
Bill A.

#housing

« First        Comments 185 - 224 of 236       Last »     Search these comments

185   HeadSet   2008 Jun 4, 10:17am  

Tail Fins, like on the late 50's early 60's cars. If you are going to be extravagant.......

186   Peter P   2008 Jun 4, 10:20am  

I prefer conservative styling.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toyota_Century

187   HeadSet   2008 Jun 4, 10:33am  

I see from the article they had a hybrid version of the Century in 1975.

188   Peter P   2008 Jun 4, 10:38am  

Too bad Jet-A ain't cheap either. ;)

189   justme   2008 Jun 4, 11:17am  

The diesel car to get is the 2008 VW Jetta TDI Bluetec with a 2.0L 4-cyl clean diesel engine. Too bad the launch is delayed from May to September. This baby will get 50MPG, maybe more if driven carefully.

190   justme   2008 Jun 4, 11:24am  

The word "smug" came up yet again. I haven't seen nor talked to any "smug" Prius drivers at all. I have however talked to several that are pleased that they are driving an efficient vehicle, and wish that more would follow their good example in their next (or even better, previous) vehicle purchase.

This practice of denouncing people who are doing the right thing as "smug" has got to stop. I suspect it is rooted in guilt and envy.

191   Peter P   2008 Jun 4, 1:10pm  

Anyone who does something because he feels good about being right is "guilty" of being smug. This includes me "exposing" the aforesaid motivation. :)

Besides, there is nothing wrong about being smug. One is certainly free to choose this path. In fact, if a lawmaker tries to outlaw smugness, I will be the first to get upset.

IF high gas prices are to stay, demand for oil will have to fall. There is no need to pay a premium for the sake of "conservation." Have faith in the market. All will be fine.

192   Peter P   2008 Jun 5, 1:37am  

After oil, what is the next bubble?

193   justme   2008 Jun 5, 1:41am  

>Anyone who does something because he feels good about being right is “guilty” of being smug.

Peter, how are you able to tell whether someone feels good about their choices "for the wrong reason", namely "being right", as opposed "the right reason", which is wanting to do something right simply because it IS the right thing to do?

Methinks you are errantly assigning the wrong motives to people who are doing the right thing.

In any case, why does this bug you and so many other people to such a large extent? It makes no sense at all to me. Just be happy that they did the right thing, feel free to do the same yourself, and otherwise leave them alone. Don't have such a big bug up your ass about the imagined motivation of people who do the right thing. Sheesh.

194   Peter P   2008 Jun 5, 2:10am  

Peter, how are you able to tell whether someone feels good about their choices “for the wrong reason”, namely “being right”, as opposed “the right reason”, which is wanting to do something right simply because it IS the right thing to do?

Does it matter? :)

The last temptation is the greatest treason:
To do the right deed for the wrong reason.
-- T. S. Eliot

195   Peter P   2008 Jun 5, 2:14am  

In any case, why does this bug you and so many other people to such a large extent?

It really doesn't. Honestly, I should be thrilled that smaller cars are making the road safer for me, right? ;)

If humanity insists on doing the "right" thing, the world will be in chaos as everybody exerts his own view of piety on the world.

If humanity remains selfish and delegate moral decisions to Free Market, at least we have hope.

196   justme   2008 Jun 5, 2:52am  

Peter,

PWDTRT= People Who Do The Right Thing

You are changing the subject. The subject is why you label PWDTRT as smug. Now you are saying that it is ok to do so because PWDTRT are actually wrong (it will produce chaos) Then please concentrate on showing why and how they are wrong, rather than the lame "smug" label. And I will tell you my suspicion: PWDTRT are right, and you cannot prove them wrong to a general level of satisfaction, so you resort instead to the "smug" label. Am I WRONG about this?

197   Peter P   2008 Jun 5, 3:11am  

Sometimes, I do things because I like to. This is something we should all cherish. You are free to disagree though.

BTW, why are you so concerned about the "smug" label? ;)

198   justme   2008 Jun 5, 3:17am  

Peter,

Yeah, and I am free to point out how lame it is. And yeah, I am concerned about the smug label, because it is an attempt to marginalize PWDTRT as irrelevant. They are anything but irrelevant. I admire them for what they do,

That's enough for now, until the next time someone starts labeling people as smug for lack of a good argument against their thoughts or actions.

199   Peter P   2008 Jun 5, 3:22am  

Here are some arguments:

http://clubs.ccsu.edu/Recorder/editorial/editorial_item.asp?NewsID=188

Labeling someone as being right is as rhetorical as labeling someone as being smug.

200   Richmond   2008 Jun 5, 3:30am  

When I think of "smug". I think of it in terms of people are void of modesty or humility. That has nothing to do with right or wrong. I've known some very humble jerkwads and I've known some very smug philanthropists.

201   Peter P   2008 Jun 5, 3:34am  

It is an overloaded word.

202   Richmond   2008 Jun 5, 3:49am  

Peter,

Good article. Those are the things that car companies don't want you to see and are usually buried on page 30 of the sports section next to the Curling stats.

203   Peter P   2008 Jun 5, 4:02am  

The article is biased though. However, the battery part deserves some research.

204   HeadSet   2008 Jun 5, 5:02am  

I would say the article is biased:

The Prius costs an average of $3.25 per mile driven over a lifetime of 100,000 miles - the expected lifespan of the Hybrid.

The Hummer, on the other hand, costs a more fiscal $1.95 per mile to put on the road over an expected lifetime of 300,000 miles.

In reality. we will see plenty of Prius cars with well over 100.000 miles on the odo. Doubtful you will see any Hummers reach 300,000 miles.

Hopefully the hydrid batteries are recyclable.

205   Peter P   2008 Jun 5, 5:25am  

Hopefully the hydrid batteries are recyclable.

They are. At what cost (environmentally or otherwise) though?

206   StuckInBA   2008 Jun 5, 5:49am  

Changing the topic a little bit here.

Let's take a stock (!) of what happened today -

1. Foreclosures making new highs
2. MBA purchase applications declines
3. Many Fed officials sounding warnings about coming bank failures
4. Dollar retreats and oil jumps 5%

What does the stock market do ? It celebrates the retail sales report. Which says that consumers have to pay more for the same food, gas etc and now shop mainly at the discount stores.

I do not expect stock market action to be logical, but every now and then, there comes a say, when all I say is "Wow".

207   StuckInBA   2008 Jun 5, 5:52am  

On a related note - the Australian $ is quietly reaching parity with USD. Thank God for FXA - it is over 96 now.

208   justme   2008 Jun 5, 5:58am  

Peter,

I said GOOD argument, not just argument. That link from CNW is pure bunk. Check out

http://www.slate.com/id/2186786/pagenum/all/

for the real story.

209   OO   2008 Jun 5, 6:03am  

You'd be making more with AUD time deposit in Australia.

I have a batch to renew, right now Australian banks are offering as high as 8.7% for 2 years. The big 4 are offering ~8.2% for 12 months.

I am pretty sure AUD will reach parity by the end of the year, if Ben&Co doesn't do something drastic (aka, starting raising rates).

210   Peter P   2008 Jun 5, 6:03am  

There is no such thing as a real story. A story is as real as it is convenient to you or me. It is pointless.

This is why the only "real" way to life is to embrace Free Market, which is the econo-behavioral manifestation of Nature.

211   OO   2008 Jun 5, 6:08am  

The stock market was celebrating the fact that there are fewer people on unemployment.

Actually, can someone verify here, if drop in unemployment claims does not necessarily mean drop in unemployment? Won't people stay unemployed for too long and eventually they will have to drop out of the claims?

I am more inclined to believe that the latter is happening.

212   Peter P   2008 Jun 5, 6:16am  

The market operates entirely according to human psychology, which dictates which and how news items are interpreted.

Not investment advice

213   justme   2008 Jun 5, 6:27am  

Peter,

so now I have chased you into the truth-is-all-relative corner of your universe. When your arguments do not hold water, that is a convenient place for you to hide.

214   Peter P   2008 Jun 5, 6:36am  

You have not chased me. I have always been there.

BTW, finding truths is not usually profitable.

215   justme   2008 Jun 5, 7:08am  

Peter P,

Then why not stay in that corner, instead of coming out and advocating your "personal truth" all the time. If it is all about what truth is convenient, then the least you could do is NOT making judgment of other people's truth. Be consistent.

I believe in universal truth, at least in scientific matters. I'm under no obligation by my belief system to stay silent, but if all *you* think is that truth is whatever is convenient, then (to paraphrase Tom Lehrer) the very least you can do is shut up.

216   Peter P   2008 Jun 5, 7:20am  

Then why not stay in that corner, instead of coming out and advocating your “personal truth” all the time.

Again, I am free to speak. You are free not to listen.

I believe in universal truth, at least in scientific matters.

Good luck. I thought Gödel had already disproved that possibility.

I heard that scores of scientists turn to God every year. We are a speck of dust in this world, which is a speck of dust in the galaxy, which is a speck of dust in the universe.

"Truth" is a marketing concept.

217   Peter P   2008 Jun 5, 7:23am  

Perhaps universal truths exists, but only as a set of tautologies. I wonder how useful they are.

218   sa   2008 Jun 5, 7:56am  

jobless claims: Not to forget we had an holiday in the week. Next week will shoot up to 400K.

Every time DOW comes closer to 12K, we see these rallies. I wouldn't put much into the rally. Ambac & MBIA got downgraded by S&P which could come back and bite later.

219   justme   2008 Jun 5, 8:30am  

Peter, you are free to speak, and you are also free to be inconsistent. I am simply appealing.

220   PermaRenter   2008 Jun 5, 8:44am  

As chairman of the House Banking Committee from 1989 to 1994, he relentlessly pressed for public scrutiny of what he called a secretive agency wielding enormous power, writes Robert D. Auerbach in his convincing first-hand chronicle of Gonzalez's battle, ``Deception and Abuse at the Fed.''

Auerbach, who teaches at the Lyndon Baines Johnson School of Public Affairs of the University of Texas at Austin, did two stints as a staff member of the House Banking Committee. His time there spanned four Fed chairmen: Arthur Burns, G. William Miller, Paul Volcker and Greenspan.

None of these chairmen comes off well here. Greenspan, ``the master of garblements,'' fares the worst. His ``skill in presenting imprecise, sometimes near-meaningless, conflicting, yet learned-sounding views won him over-the-top adulation for his insights and abilities,'' Auerbach writes.

These evasions and deceptions allowed Greenspan to avoid accountability, which is the thrust of Auerbach's critique. The Fed has 19 decision makers -- seven governors in Washington and 12 regional bank presidents. They are accountable to no one.

221   Richmond   2008 Jun 5, 10:04am  

I've noticed the 12,000 magic number pattern also. Every time it reaches that number or goes a little under, they do something extreme. Don't forget about the two extra "panic" points on the side. Inflation? We will see.

222   Paul189   2008 Jun 5, 10:07am  

Yesterday I was notified that the FRB has archives available back to 1978-

http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc_historical.htm

Funny reading as there is some of the same language we hear today about concern of the weak dollar, etc..

223   OO   2008 Jun 5, 12:08pm  

Calling EBGuy the in-house Fed statement expert.

Sounds like we are $20B further negative with -$130B, compared to 2 weeks ago.
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h3/current/

And yet the stock market rallied on.

224   danville woman   2008 Jun 5, 3:30pm  

OO

(O.T.)

Pimco's PCRIX is one of their commodity funds. It is based on derivatives backed mostly byTIPS. ( I also noted some MBS and other bonds. )

I know it can be volatile because of the nature of commodities, but any opinion on this fund in terms of safety?

« First        Comments 185 - 224 of 236       Last »     Search these comments

Please register to comment:

api   best comments   contact   latest images   memes   one year ago   random   suggestions