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He e-mailed me. Safe so far... He was actually in Japan when the earthquakes hit (unlike myself). Hopefully, he will post soon.
I feel sorry for Japan but any investing there in short term would be out of question isn't it ?
To put the damage in perspective, $350B is about what we've spent on extended unemployment insurance since 2008.
Now, if Tokyo has to be evacuated like Pripyat City, that's a problem, though construction companies are good in any case (they rose 20-50% on Monday but gave back their gains today).
AIJ,
do you still think it is a good time to invest in Japanese realty? If so, would you look at Kansei or Kanto?
Give me some time on this, with the disaster, but it is a good question for later. (I didn't even look at my investments for over a week after.)
Michinaga actually owns property in Tokyo, but I don't yet.
This won't raise the price of homes in Japan but it is making it more expensive to build or renovate (for now).
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Quake-to-Spur-Biggest-Japan-bloomberg-4019504039.html
I'm paid in yen and have been watching residential properties in southeast Michigan for the last few years. 115+ yen to the dollar now up to 76 yen to the dollar...what a strange feeling to have become an F/X guy without even trying.
Radioactivity (or unending suspicion thereof) in the food chain and environment cleared out a lot of high-rent-paying expats from the Azabu area where we'd been living, but they are trickling back. Usually, the company pays their rent so $10,000/mo. or more is routine. I know a German guy who lost his shirt buying a 3BR condo and renting it out to the expat market. As high as rents are in that area, it doesn't seem to pay off since properties are still stratospherically priced. Apparently it is better to own small, single-unit apartment buildings in the mid- to distant suburbs, renting to students whose parents pay, and taking advantage of every kind of subsidy, tax break, etc. As we are in our third zombie decade since the bubble, there is no "flipping" here anymore, so it's going to be all about the cash flow.
My wife and kids and I moved to her hometown in Okayama, where there is far less concern about radioactive food. Decent houses down here cost about $250k or $300k, interest rates on 35-year fixed are 2% or lower, there is zero insulation and often only 1 toilet so running utility costs are super-high every month. I don't have job security here so will just keep renting...as an example, we are now in a 1980-built home of about 1200 square feet, 1 bath/1 toilet, no yard, 1 parking place, and rent is $620/mo. at current exchange rates. With good schools, national healthcare and easy, green/natural life all around, I could stay here forever if I could only keep working remotely on my Tokyo job.
@badmigraine
Wow, thanks for the information in your area. Have you read any comments by Michinaga, tlhouse2000 or ssri? There are at least a few readers of Patrick.net living in Japan now...
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In Japan (or at least Tokyo), there seems to be the opposite situation that is in the SF Bay Area. Properties that are purchased with 80% loans have a monthly payment of X amount, but can be rented out for far more per month, generating positive cash flow. In some cases, the rental income is nearly double the mortgage payment. The downside, however, is that many structures are built somewhat poorly here with a life of 25-30 years...
#housing