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Peter, given the cost of ownership it is much lower to use batteries than buying gasoline the batteries clearly win environmentally. You build a battery, it does its thing, you have to constantly produce gasoline. That right there is a win for electric.
Recycling them is even better. When you research the subject I think you will find that the electrolyte has no environmental impact, and you can just reuse the casings.
The only argument that has any substance is the method of producing the electricity. It is a tradeoff, but I for one am on solar, and charging at night doesn't take any more capacity than daytime energy needs so to me it is a moot point. I put back what I would use by producing clean solar power for the grid during the day.
The Housing Bill is being blocked because of an alternative energy bill:
http://uk.reuters.com/article/marketsNewsUS/idUKN2547060320080625?pageNumber=2
Alternative energy is not OT after all. :)
Anyway, both bills are terrible.
Headset,
Taxicabs: I see a lot of Prius cars used for cabs around the world these days. But something bigger like and Accord Diesel or Taurus or IMpala could also make a dent in that market.
I'm worried, though, that Detroit is going to pervert the concept and build muscle-diesels much as they have built muscle-hybrid-SUV and the like of it. Detroit (and even Japan) has never seen a n ew technology that they can resist perverting into more testosterone.
Cabs are getting smaller. The good idling efficiency of diesel is also good for cabs, police cars and other service vehicles that end to idle extensively.
Malcolm, solar is going to be big. It is big in the Bay Area. I personally know two people working in that industry.
If gas does fall to $3/gal, I'm thinking that a tax should added to raise the price right back up. After a spell of paying $4+/gal, Americans will think $3/gal is an outright bargain and will opt right back to low mileage vehicles.
That is was what happened after the last oil shock. SUV was just a way to get around CAFE.
The un-cool un-manly image that the billybobs keep throwing out has come so full a circle that people that talk like that actually look like idiots. I hate to stoop but objectively I just don't see it. I think the reason why is that the new generations (even of the prius) no longer look like little wimpy cars. How idiotic does it look to go broke driving a Suburban but still knocking your neighbor for driving an Insight? As early adopters, people should expect some criticism but when you know you are right, it is fun to just watch atitudes change on their own.
Peter P Says:
June 25th, 2008 at 11:06 am
"Malcolm, solar is going to be big. It is big in the Bay Area. I personally know two people working in that industry."
You actually know three.
Malcolm,
About the demographic of the Ford Extinction crowd:
I'm afraid you may be right. There is a lot of women who are now addicted to the testosterone-appeal of these cars. Very sad. I could speculate on the deeper psychological and sociological reasons for this fact, but that might turn into a whole other thread.
I share the fear Headset. I think this is a window for people to shift their habbits once and for all. Electrics and hybrids in full production will be so compelling on their own that I can't imagine people wanting to shift back. I imagine that we will see big muscle hybrids, I'm not sure that even bothers me.
I don't even want to open that box because I actually feel we have had a gender role reversal in this country. Women were traditionally the moral compass keeping their men in check and now I meet more and more gen x and y men who seem very enlightened. I don't know if it a generation thing, a California thing, a current political shift, but I know what I am seeing over and over.
Don't get me wrong there are plenty of girls who dig the environmental point of view, but the ones in influencial social circles seem to be the late adopters.
Headset,
You're right, gas *should* be $4/gal.
We can tax it to get there if need be, This will get Peter P's Panties in a twist, but ask me if I care.
My longtime girlfriend seems to really like the image she conveys driving her Prius. She also seems to generate respect in her circles by what I'm doing with my life so maybe it is a subset of women.
Malcolm,
Interesting that the hybrid and advanced diesel is coming out now. It is as if the foreigners predicted the higher US gas prices and saw a way to capture US market share. After all, high gas prices have been the norm in Europe for quite a while, and they coped by building small cars/engines. When I was in England during the mid 90s, it was not uncommon to see cars with sporting a "1.0 Litre" badge..
$4? Premium was at 4.99.
I know a year ago or so I predicted prices would drop with an economic slowdown. I have to say that prediction was wrong but probably irrelevant since those who actually want to take control of their wellbeing are going to make the switch and it will not even matter.
I still think if we really do slowdown there will be a short term glut of oil in production. I believe that the handwriting is on the wall and like any typical industry they are just maxing out the revenues while they can. The world is going to be very different starting next year.
The timing is what is killing our car makers because predicting hybrid market share was counterintuitive.
That's the reward of doing what's right instead of merely following and guessing market trends. Everyone here is richer for not following the housing trend up, and that's what happened in the auto industry. That's why the billybobs will always live a backwards life with a poor quality of life.
I'm glad I checked the blog today. I've been working a lot but today I have a headache so I'm going in later.
ShortTermCapitalMgmt,
Those are big electric performance motorcycles. Have not seen them. But I can tell you that China is full of small moped-meets-bycycle-sized electrical cycles, Little ones that will get you around town in a very effective manner. Nice to see.
Malcolm,
I'm with you on the gender role thing. Let's just leave it at that for now.
Regarding the cleanliness diesels, "true believers" will tell you:
Other references show that at the very worst, exhaust from engines with DPFs are indistinguishable from the intake air in terms of PM numbers (http://www.aecc.be/en/content/pdf/AECC%20Newsletter%20March-April%202007.pdf, “Report on Ultrafine Particlesâ€, page 7).
Sorry about the UCSD/SDSU mix up. In fact, when I first read about it years ago, I distinctly remember being impressed that these were folks within the State University system.
The oil was paid for.
It certainly was!
Have to admit I started getting excited hearing Amory Lovins talking about how the military has converted to using "the fully burdened cost of fuel" when calculating expenditures for military vehicles. The times they are a-changin'...
I was kidding on the SDSU thing though I am proud of them. I had a really good experience with their business program.
I think
"The oil was borrowed for"
might be a more correct expression, than
"The oil was paid for".
You’re right, gas *should* be $4/gal.
Your rent *should* be $4000/month.
I would guess the problem with an automotive diesel/electric hybrid is that it takes a lot more to start up a diesel engine than an otto engine. Most of the hybrid's efficiency comes from turning the gas engine off when not required and using regenerative braking.
Diesel/electric drives in locomotives and on subs don't shut the diesel off frequently.
Why, because I'm wasting so much space and not preserving it for future generations? Wrong!
The future generation will have their own economic equilibrium. Why do we have to preserve anything (other than jam) for them?
Malcom,
GM ripped out this country's public transportation network, and you called that doing things right? In case you don't know, they killed their own electric car too.
GM is a perfect example of a greedy and incompetently run company that I hope will go belly up as soon as possible, taking its idiot management and dumb workers along please.
It's a miracle that the Big 3s are not yet gone, I can hardly find any reason to buy an American branded vehicle. The other day when I read about GM's revival of 0 interest for 6 years, the deal-seeking part of me immediately went to their website to check out the cars to see if the price can justify. While I kept scrolling through their cars, I was saying to myself, crap, crap, crap, hmm, Saab, crapified, crap... I am a very easy consumer to convince because I am very price sensitive and I can let the deal overcome my preference, somehow I still cannot possibly bring myself to buy any GM vehicle.
How about a Cadillac CTS?
http://www.iihs.org/ratings/ratingsbyseries.aspx?id=309
Looks pretty safe.
It is beneficial to bring back the moral compass. Let's start by restricting no-fault divorces.
Enforcing private contracts *IS* the government's responsibility.
OO, I totally agree with you which is why I am confused about me ever saying they did anything right. Perhaps you are reading where I wrote it was unfortunate and interpreted it to mean that I am a fan. What I meant, and is clear in the overall context, is that it is unfortunate that it is the foreign car makers who have provided the solutions. I'm not anti American which is the only reason I think it is a shame. I am actually happy to see these small American startups springing up. I think it is going to be a good thing.
I am of course well aware of the EV1, ironically as I was driving in after posting earlier, I was thinking about the stories of people being forced to give their EV1s back under protest. How that wasn't a sign of market sentiment is beyond me. Even that very limited experiment generated large fanfare.
TOB, I guess Eve got them off to a bad start. :)
I guess there are many angles but for some reason modern day professional women seem to have a need to show that they can be just as sleezy as their boomer male role models.
ShortTermCapitalMgmt Says:
June 25th, 2008 at 10:22 am
"Malcolm,
Do you know anything about these electric cycles?"
I got sidetracked and didn't mean to not reply. I don't know much about them. During the EV1 days when electric car ranges were unacceptably short I did look into EV motorcycles only because their size did allow about 100+ mile range and they were about $25,000. I'm the kind of guy who looks for anything viable and then looks further to see if I can use it in a practical manner. I am not a fan of street motorcycles but if someone is I think they present a very good option.
Malcom,
I must have scanned through the posts in a hurry, sorry for the friendly fire.
I am glad that we are on the same page :-)
I like diesel mostly because:
1) it is not as flammable as gas
2) diesel engines have tons of torque
I like heavy cars. MPG is not as important. Let the market decide! :)
I'd like to see bridge tolls calculated based on vehicle's weight since the heavier vehicles put more strain on bridges. I'd like to see registration fee calculated based on vehicle's size/MPG - heavier vehicles wear higways more and pollute more. That'll be fair. And then let the market decide.
Bap33,
Just a quick one, maybe I will find the energy for more later:
1. I'm sure you agree that bad FM/Ford/Chrysler built-in-a-hurry technology from the 70s does not invalidate new 2009 technology. They were late to the party then just as they are now. Let us hope they do not repeat their mistakes, but instead do some good engineering,
2. Yeah, the reality of high energy costs will catch up with anyone. And even the US automakers will maybe eventually do the right thing. Meanwhile, Europe and Japan have been on the right track for many years already.
3. Power/Weight is a completely different metric than Energy/Distance (MPG). Race cars have great Power/Weight and lousy MPG, at ANY speed.
4. It sounds like you think that an engine can be built for (and more importantly SIZED for ) performance, and at the same time provide economy (=energy efficiency in my terminology) simply by driving it "nicely". I think this is not the case. The closest thing we have is a clean Turbodiesel. But is not sized foer a crazy V12 racecar with insane performance. It just has plenty of oomph for daily use.
I’d like to see bridge tolls calculated based on vehicle’s weight since the heavier vehicles put more strain on bridges.
I agree. It should also be calculated based on vehicle speed for similar reasons.
I’d like to see registration fee calculated based on vehicle’s size/MPG - heavier vehicles wear higways more and pollute more. That’ll be fair. And then let the market decide.
With toll roads and streets everywhere, we do not need the registration fee anymore. We do need to charge a pollution cleanup fee.
BAP, no one disagrees with your history lesson. This time it is different and the market has already decided. People are literally approaching Prius owners at gas stations offering to buy their cars from them because they don't want to wait. There is no subsidy in doing that, nor was there one for leasing one.
The home recharging model does make sense, and comparing reluctant manufactures of the past with market innovators of the present seems flawed to me. I have a strong feeling that our society does remember the days you are talking about. I believe government and industry are taking those lessons learned and realizing that this time it is not just an OPEC created embargo driving up prices. It is much more complicated. It involves everything from increased global demand, to remaining competitive because other countries have freed themselves by going to renewables. I guarantee if we had to do it all from scratch knowing what we know now, the conventional technologies wouldn't pencil out. I find it ironic that we have to defend incentivizing renewables when oil companies receive all sorts of subsidies and shelters, and hey what about the "gas tax holiday?" That sounds like government actually subsidizing our current habbits. Renewables now make sense, there's no way to argue against it.
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Thanks Phil,
I've heard that as well, but it's hard to believe, since it would be so unfair that banks pay no taxes while everyone else has to.
The idea of using property tax to keep things fair (and eliminating income tax and sales tax entirely) is an old one, but not yet tried anywhere. Henry George proposed it more than 100 years ago:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georgism
I'll make a post out of this.
Patrick
#housing