patrick.net

"I think we're bumping along the bottom right now," said Realtor Douglas MacDonald of Coldwell Banker Solano Pacific in Vallejo.

If I had a nickel....

My point is, "Home values fell in the Bay Area and around the nation in the fourth quarter..." The bottom was not 2009.

Looks like a 2B condo sold for $380,000 in the complex I like to watch.

I think we're bouncing along the bottom here and chances are in fact non-zero that prices will move up.

They certainly want to, given that the 30 year cost of owership on that condo is just $1300/mo, well under rents (actual cash outgo is $2300/mo, which is pretty affordable around here).

joshuatrio says

“I think we’re bumping along the bottom right now,” said Realtor Douglas MacDonald of Coldwell Banker Solano Pacific in Vallejo.

If I had a nickel….

Last time the REA were saying we are "bumping along the bottom,
and prices would go flat for awile" was when prices peaked in 2006-07.

pkowen says

My point is, “Home values fell in the Bay Area and around the nation in the fourth quarter…” The bottom was not 2009.

OH! SHOCKING NEWS !

RE is local ...... repeat as needed

Sales transactions, asking prices, and selling prices *do* traditionally fall during the 4th quarter of any year, but the article does note that the decline is also year-over-year:

For the nine-county Bay Area, Zillow shows a median home value in the fourth quarter of $463,246, down 3.6 percent compared with a year earlier

But, this is also Zillow talking, and their home "value" formula is based on shaking a Magic 8 Ball.

If your going to get your real estate education via the internet... nuff said! A 9 pound monkey with a network connection can appear to be the mighty oracle, just look at one of the biggest idiots - Stan Humphries, of Zillow. The fact that that moron gets interviewed is beyond comprehension. The site is just plagued with errors, yet it is cited as an authority for establishing what is going on with values nationally. Another is Yun. They get notoriety by placing 'Economist' at the end of their name, and the public accepts them as a GURU; very sad.

Real Estate will bottom when these conditions begin to turn. Employment; this number is so cooked, actually closer to 20%. The Treasury stops printing money, and returns money creation to the public, where it constitutionally belongs. Huge cuts in spending are put in place, but this is the proverbial 'double edge sword'; for the trillions that need to be cut, there are hundreds of thousands of jobs associated with those cuts.

At some point all the daily POMO's (permanent open market operations) will end. When that happens, the financial markets will fall dramatically, along with the final down leg in real estate, all monetary based markets will begin normalization, and a healthy recovery will occur. The odds of this scenario occurring are virtually improbable. The government, mainly republicans, have not learned a thing from history, and this administration is no different economic policy wise, as was the Hoover Administration. The big difference is the 14.2 Trillion in annual spending... 98% of GDP! The death spiral is in motion, the Dollar is being decimated; down over 30% in the last 3 years. Your mission; figure a way out! The real estate bottom.... Many years away.

nelsonbentz says

nelsonbentz

Take a look at this post by nelsonbentz - MORON EXTRAORDINAIRE! Joins thread to post a blatant lie, just like the septic hole he lives in; MBA - Mortgage Bankers Association. Take a look at the garbage stats that criminal organization puts up! They have run out of warm bodies with pulses to pump this garbage to, and refinance numbers are so pathetic, they can't even spin them anymore! This is their new marketing campaign. But they are barking up the wrong tree here! Right guys / gals! Patrick Net has you covered, with the daily post to educate, enlighten, and inform!

repo4sale says

FACTS 4 ALL 2 ANALYZE:

1-California Real Estate Cycles are 8-10 years to top & to bottom, same cycle since WW2

2-Bottom is about 200% of past bottoms & tops are about 200% of past tops!

3-California is about 15% of the US GNP or GDP, or 7th or 8th biggest “economy” in the world.

4-Most “real estate deals” get derailed due to BAD TIMING, LITIGATION, EMOTIONS OR DEBT.

5-California is a good Property Tax State due to Prop.13 minimizing BUY Assessments.

6-Timing is 100% of your DEAL aka investing at the bottom & selling at the top, avoid DRAMA!

7-Internal Rate of Return, aka the MBA Hedge Funds way to calculate Investments is REQUIRED!

8-Me? I bought 300 properties in the 1990s (bottom) & sold 198 of them at or near the top.

9-My GROSS monthly return before expenses was 49.22% per month, all deals included.

10-THE BUY WINDOW IS 2010 TO 2015 & SELL WINDOW IS 2018-2020(subject2changes).

11-My IRR aka Net return after expenses is 27%/month from 1999-2008.

12-I bought 32 properties in 2010 at 1-7cents vs. 2007 value.

13-I expect to close escrow on 100-200 properties by 2015.

14-My “Exit” window is 2016-20 yielding 35% IRR via graphs, charts, HP12B2, Android & Excel!

15-By 2020 my goal is to be a Billionaire.

You got a connection to that high octane weed their growin' out there don't you! Could you forward me the link!

Bap33 says

RE is local …… repeat as needed

Thats basically it. In some places RE dropped to reality, in some places it is holding on due to lavish subsidies and other items such as denial or market manipulation.

The one interesting tidbit was the point that accelerating declines are likely to help bring the market to a bottom later this year. This dovetails with the argument that stakeholders (banks, govt) should allow the market to drop quickly so that a bottom can be found more quickly --- the problem is that the stakeholders are NOT allowing the market to find a natural floor, so I think this tidbit is likely to be incorrect (without taking into account other factors such as momentum).

The fact is that none of us know when RE will hit bottom, and it is kind of silly for the guy from Zillow to make such a prediction. There are too many influencing factors which are unknowable.

junk says

repo4sale says

FACTS 4 ALL 2 ANALYZE:
1-California Real Estate Cycles are 8-10 years to top & to bottom, same cycle since WW2
2-Bottom is about 200% of past bottoms & tops are about 200% of past tops!
3-California is about 15% of the US GNP or GDP, or 7th or 8th biggest “economy” in the world.
4-Most “real estate deals” get derailed due to BAD TIMING, LITIGATION, EMOTIONS OR DEBT.
5-California is a good Property Tax State due to Prop.13 minimizing BUY Assessments.
6-Timing is 100% of your DEAL aka investing at the bottom & selling at the top, avoid DRAMA!
7-Internal Rate of Return, aka the MBA Hedge Funds way to calculate Investments is REQUIRED!
8-Me? I bought 300 properties in the 1990s (bottom) & sold 198 of them at or near the top.
9-My GROSS monthly return before expenses was 49.22% per month, all deals included.
10-THE BUY WINDOW IS 2010 TO 2015 & SELL WINDOW IS 2018-2020(subject2changes).
11-My IRR aka Net return after expenses is 27%/month from 1999-2008.
12-I bought 32 properties in 2010 at 1-7cents vs. 2007 value.
13-I expect to close escrow on 100-200 properties by 2015.
14-My “Exit” window is 2016-20 yielding 35% IRR via graphs, charts, HP12B2, Android & Excel!
15-By 2020 my goal is to be a Billionaire.

You got a connection to that high octane weed their growin’ out there don’t you! Could you forward me the link!

**puff, puff...... pass**