patrick.net

Heh - I would say this scenario applies to any from, say, 2000 to 2003. At least the easy come easy go part.

For those who bought 2004 and beyond the answer the acceptance is or the more 'terminal' variety - e.g. "Oh well, I am ruined and have lost more money than I can save in 10 yars."

Arguably, the 'terminal' people are stll in stage 3 - The baragaining is, "Oh man, I hope Congress helps me."

Just took a trip to Toronto and the Canadian bubble seems to be deflating as well. Sales are way down, my friend is looking to trade up and saw no traffic in open house and many sellers are also in denial. He asked the agent if they seriously think they can get what the listed for, the agent reply was "everything is negotiable". Also, there were so many new condo towers built it would seemed they would have a hard time selling all of the units.

Hmm. Thought I would take another quick look at Case Shiller. It turns out that by base-lining the index to the year 2000 there is a pretty big bias built in, at least for SFO. By Jan 2000 we were already into 2 years of double digit appreciation, and 4 years into very strong appreciation.

I am going to agree with Claire, that using 1997 as a baseline with 4.25% appreciation is the best way to try to set price ranges.

Interestingly, for te SFO C-S this would read as such:

We are 25.5% off our peak and only 17% from an index of 100 set on Jan 1997 assuming 4.25% annual housing appreciation. If we keep droping roughly 1.25% per month we reach index, umm, still Jan of 2010.

Put another way, a well maintained home should have appreciated about 60% since 1997 as opoped to the doubling everyone is asking for.

@Duke

I think we decided 1997 should be our baseline about two years ago on this blog, unfortunately, I had to have my computer rebuilt inbetween and I lost a lot of my handy links and excel sheets to work some this out.

There was a thread - Housing Prices Rule of Thumb - but some links don't work on that thread anymore. It was quite informative when I read it again the other day - however, it is hard to say whether what we hope will happen will. I think it was HARM (????) who had a link to a spreadsheet that I'm looking for.

I'm still on the sidelines - from 2003 when we moved into bubblicious Mountain View. We didn't buy then as 1) the prices still seemed high as opposed to where we came from and 2) it would have really stretched our budget and we thought this would be a 2 year gig.

However, I'm getting a bit impatient now!!!!

I think a lot of people are going to be bitter about it and pissed off at the realtors/mortgage lenders - because as far as most are concerned it will not their fault for getting in over their heads - it was the realtors and mortgage lenders, their spouses fault for wanting the house too and whoever popped the bubble's fault!

O.T.

What does everyone think of buying a house in Willow Glen in San Jose?
Advantages, disadvantages?

danville woman,

Please read this in regards to Willow Glen in San Jose:

In San Jose, Calif., home to Silicon Valley and some of the highest home values in the country, a bumper sticker reads, "Dear God, one more bubble before I die."

Chances are the car's driver lives in Willow Glen, a neighborhood with a small-town feel, Spanish-style single family homes and a main street with sidewalk cafes and locally owned shops. To live there, residents are paying the city's highest prices relative to what they could pay to rent similar properties in the same area. When you compare mortgage payments to the value of a similar home on the rental market, the price to buy is 26.1 times higher, one of the biggest differences in the country.

Willow Glen is one example of a neighborhood where homeowners are still taking chances on future appreciation--and paying a premium above and beyond their neighbors for that confidence.

http://www.forbes.com/2008/07/29/overpriced-zips-homes-forbeslife-cx_mw_0729realestate.html

I have never seen the appeal of Willow Glen. There is really nothing special about it.

Danville,
I think Danville is in every way superior to Willow Glen.
Perma offers the best advice. There is absolutely no reason to buy in this market. Go rent for 2 years in Willow Glen. If you like it, buy then.
I was about to list all the reasons why you should delay a purchase for 2 years and the list was just too long.

http://www.dqnews.com/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay080819.aspx

Bay Area home sales climb above last year; median price falls hard

I agree with above comments regarding Willow Glen. There is nothing fundamentally strong about that area. Buying there is like buying collectibles. The only hope is people will continue to perceive it as having any value. Buying a sh1tbox in Crappetino makes far more financial sense than buying in Willow Glen.

(This is not a recommendation to buy in Willow Glen, nor to buy anywhere else in the Bay Area right now.)

Having gotten that disclaimer out of the way, let me try to explain the appeal of an area like Willow Glen. The area I am referring to is _much_ wider than just the few blocks on Lincoln Street with the nice restaurants - there is an area the size of a small town surrounding it.

It is difficult to see it in the current context, when school districts and proximity to commuting arteries are the only things that seem to matter. Places like Willow Glen offer a different kind of life, where every house isn't stamped out of a cookie-cutter with styrofoam "mission-style accents" that are mass-produced in China. Despite their individualistic charm, they are still solidly middle-class, tree-lined neighborhoods, where your moderately successful working-stiff can afford to buy a comfortable house, raise a family, grow some roses and walk the dog.

If you go anywhere outside the US, you will find that this is exactly the kind of place that successful working-class folks _aspire_ to live - like Clifton Beach in Cape Town, Princes Hill in Melbourne, and to a lesser degree in the Passy neighborhood of Paris.

This is not to say that Willow Glen is anywhere near as elegant as the 16 Arrondissement. WG is far too close to the crappy San Jose neighborhoods, and is part of crappy San Jose in general - but I can imagine a few decades ago why people would have paid a little extra to live there. After all, there wasn't much happening in Mountain View or Sunnyvale back then.

Well, the local acquaintances have gone from looking at us as the family that cannot afford to buy a house to looking at us as the family that is not saddled with a house. So that's different.

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Shares of mortgage finance companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac continued their plunge Wednesday as investors are increasingly convinced that the stocks will drop to zero if the government bails out the troubled companies.

FNM 4.98

FRE 3.33

"Well, the local acquaintances have gone from looking at us as the family that cannot afford to buy a house to looking at us as the family that is not saddled with a house. So that’s different."

Eliza,

I get that too - "you rent, you sold in '05, how did you know, yadda, yadda yadda."

I can also see a day when people will also have gone from saying why would anyone buy gold and silver to look at that guy he has money, real money, he has gold and silver!

Don't you fucking faggots know that the Bay Area is special? The fucking streets are paved with gold, Chindians wait off shore for a chance, a fucking chance to lick the toilets of the Willow Glen (San Hosebag?) elite. Fuck me. Man I wish I could breath the rarefied air up there. Mmmm the Bay Area, just plain better. Gold, silver? Fuck you, USD faggots.

Welcome to the Bay Area, FUCK YOU.

Ha ha, I was hoping Surfer X would chime in re San Jose. Classic.

surfer-x Says:
Chindians wait off shore for a chance, a fucking chance to lick the toilets of the Willow Glen (San Hosebag?) elite.

Ha ha, Willow Glen elite - that's a fucking joke. The area is nice for middle-class whiteys - nice lawn in front, wifey fucking the mailman in the back while hubby is nailing the secretary at work, but it isn't elite by any means.

Besides, Chindians don't care about Willow Glen - the schools district doesn't give them enough of a woody.

Chindian fortresses:

1st tier: Palo Alto, Cupertino, Saratoga, Mission San Jose, Piedmont
2nd tier: Los Altos (the part that goes to MV schools), Mountain View (MV High school catchment area), Sunnyvale (the part that goes to Cupertino schools), Los Gatos (only the parts within the LG school system), west San Jose, Alamo, Danville

Then there is everything else.

Man, San Jose is desirable?
I don't think so.
Meet me on the coast in the thick fog, bad weather, tell me about your desire to live out here.
There are good places, San Jose ain't one of 'em.

How many hours do techies really work in the BA? Are these paid hours? I was just struck by TOB clim of 80 hour work weeks.

Techies put 80 hours while getting paid for 40 hours. Please go to http://www.glassdoor.com/index.htm for salary data.

By the way, I agree that Chindians drastically lowered ethics and living standard in Bay Area. But please note that it is the whites who encouraged them to do so. Basically just understand the skin color of management ranks and you will understand what I mean ....

I interviewed at Intel once, asked Holmes what a typical work week was, he replied, "count on 55, sometimes it will be more, sometimes less". Think about that, 55hrs, that's 11hrs a day if working 5 days, or around 9hrs if working 6. Say you work the 5 day work week, figure in your 1hr commute from your shitbox to the factory, a 1hr lunch, and it's 14hrs a day, that leaves 2hrs to wack off and do your laundry.

I accepted the offer and never showed up, they called me for 3 months. Fuckers.

I interviewed at Applied Materials once, asked Itchy McKnobster what a typical work week was, he replied, "whatever it takes to get the job done". I asked, "well what do you work". Faggot didn't answer. Oh, btw, I was interviewing on Sunday.

Paved with mother fucking gold I tell ya. Everyone is rich, rich rich.

Well - that is an eye opener. It looks like those $120k techie salaries come with a major draw-back after all. 55-80 hours a week!
I am now more perplexed than ever how people raise families, afford homes, and do anything in the BA?!?

Well, as I've said before-- I grew up in the bay area.

As soon as I learned to drive--I drove away.

Nuff said.

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/080822/aqf003.html?.v=55

Press Release Source: Wallick & Volk Mortgage Bankers

Wallick & Volk/Century 21 Associates Offer a Free Seminar
Friday August 22, 10:00 am ET

FLAGSTAFF, Ariz., Aug. 22 /PRNewswire/ -- Wallick & Volk and Century 21 Associates are offering a free seminar on Why It Still Makes Sense to Buy versus Rent, The Housing Bubble and Media Myths and Industry Facts.
In this seminar you will learn: The true cost of renting, The tax advantage of home ownership, How to overcome the fear of purchasing a home, The true facts about the housing bubble, What truly affects the growth of the housing industry, and How to increase your credit score 100 points in 45 days. Additionally, attend this FREE seminar to receive a complimentary purchase analysis and homebuyers kit.

Seminar will be held on Saturday, September 27, 2008 at 10:00 a.m. Location of seminar is the Century 21 Associates office located at 24 West Route 66, Flagstaff, AZ 86001. Please RSVP to 928-526-2121 or C21seminars@gmail.com.

Space is limited so be sure to register now.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: Wallick & Volk Mortgage Bankers

You are all talking about the Bay Area as if every other big American city is just bitchin to live in. Get real. They pretty much all suck.

If you're going to talk shit, at least give a reference point. Man Jose beats the shit out of alot of places, especially other big American cities. And it's not expensive because it's paradise. It's expensive because there are JOBS.

Population-wise, Man Jose is the 10th biggest city. Here's the top 20....

New York, N.Y. 8,143,197 8,008,278 7,322,564 685,714 9.4 1 1 1
Los Angeles, Calif. 3,844,829 3,694,820 3,485,398 209,422 6.0 2 2 2
Chicago, Ill. 2,842,518 2,896,016 2,783,726 112,290 4.0 3 3 3
Houston, Tex. 2,016,582 1,953,631 1,630,553 323,078 19.8 4 4 4
Philadelphia, Pa. 1,463,281 1,517,550 1,585,577 –68,027 –4.3 5 5 5
Phoenix, Ariz. 1,461,575 1,321,045 983,403 337,642 34.3 10 6 6
San Antonio, Tex. 1,256,509 1,144,646 935,933 208,713 22.3 9 9 7
San Diego, Calif. 1,255,540 1,223,400 1,110,549 112,851 10.2 6 7 8
Dallas, Tex. 1,213,825 1,188,580 1,006,877 181,703 18.0 8 8 9
San Jose, Calif. 912,332 894,943 782,248 112,695 14.4 11 11 10
Detroit, Mich. 886,671 951,270 1,027,974 –76,704 –7.5 7 10 11
Indianapolis, Ind. 784,118 781,870 741,952 49,974 6.7 13 12 12
Jacksonville, Fla. 782,623 735,617 635,230 100,387 15.8 15 14 13
San Francisco, Calif. 739,426 776,733 723,959 52,774 7.3 14 13 14
Columbus, Ohio 730,657 711,470 632,910 78,560 12.4 16 15 15
Austin, Tex. 690,252 656,562 465,622 190,940 41.0 25 16 16
Memphis, Tenn. 672,277 650,100 610,337 39,763 6.5 18 18 17
Baltimore, Md. 635,815 651,154 736,014 –84,860 –11.5 12 17 18
Fort Worth, Tex. 624,067 534,694 447,619 87,075 19.5 29 27 19
Charlotte, N.C.

San Diego is the only other city on this list I would consider living in. I mean cumon... Houston? Detroit? Baltimore? You would rather live in these cities?

I actually have never been to a job or seen a job with 80-hour week paying ONLY $120K. I see plenty of 80-hour jobs here paying $320K or more, mainly in finance.

I'd say most $120K jobs here have a working hour that goes with the pay, 50-55 hours. The extra hours could be entirely voluntary, and you won't lose your job if you do not put in extra hours.

In terms of technical job, there is one exception I know, he is a very senior-level engineer at a major company, putting in 80 hours but pulling in close to $260K including bonus. Most $120K worker bees can go home by 7PM for dinner, and they don't usually show up until after 10AM.

Bay Area is attractive not just because it has jobs, but it has high-paying jobs. NYC, LA, Boston aside, You can hardly find that many $150K+ jobs elsewhere, and if you do not force yourself to buy a home, a combined $300K family can live a very comfortable life while socking away quite a bit of savings each year. $300K household income is not a distant goal for most over-educated working families here.

I would say if you get the housing part nailed down, BA offers the best quality of life in terms of access to the best food, medical care, weather, natural attractions among most US cities.

OPEN HOUSE Sat. Aug. 23rd 1:00-4:00PM
2261 MARKHAM Ave, San Jose
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Bedrooms: 3
Bathrooms: 2
Square Feet: 1690
Lot Size: 6890 Price:
$799,000

Pottery Barn Beauty! One story ranch style with stainless & granite kitchen, recessed lights, tile floors in both kitchen & large laundry room, gleaming hardwood thru-out, plantation shutters, huge bedrooms, dual pane windows & slider, newer roof & a/c & central heat, freshly landscaped front & back w/auto sprinklers. Lots of parking with detached 2 car garage and rod iron gate.

For more information, view website at: http://www.MySouthBayBroker.com

Known as "seller-funded down payment assistance," builders could pay up to 6 percent of a home's sale price. But from October 1, the law will ban this practice because mortgages secured with assisted down payments have expected foreclosure rates up to three times higher than other loans, Housing and Urban Development (HUD) spokesman Lemar Wooley said.

The ban is a near-term negative for the industry, since it will shrink the pool of potential buyers, raise cancellation rates and weigh on already-depressed builders' shares -- their index .DJUSHB sits 75 percent off its lifetime high.

The chief executive of the largest U.S. home builder, D.R. Horton Inc (DHI.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), said he "got suicidal" over the ban.

"I'm absolutely shocked by it. And I'm upset by it," Horton CEO Don Tomnitz told analysts on a recent call. "To take 10 percent, 20 percent, 30 percent of the buyers out of the home buying decision, at a point in the economy that they did, it's absolutely ludicrous."

While the new law contains a $7,500 tax credit for first-time buyers, that will not offset the ban on down payment assistance, which had no such restrictions, National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) CEO Jerry Howard said.

Most $120K worker bees can go home by 7PM for dinner, and they don’t usually show up until after 10AM.

sorry faggot, try again, that's an 8 hr workday, simply not going to happen.

$300K household income is not a distant goal for most over-educated working families here.

Mmm you are a tasty little faggot aren't you? Data fuck-knob, data, check the glass whore site listed above, the facts don't match your masturbation dream. smaka smaka smaka, ahhh RICH, smaka smaka smaka, 300K.

San Jose, go fuck yourself. A city with such a lack of style the faggots there think 22" rims on a hyundai is the way to go.

Think of San jose as california's asshole, I guess SF would be the bacon strip then.

If you are from Dallas, Detroit, St. Louis, Buffalo any fucking place on the planet is better. If you are not a carpetbagger and are a CA native, San Jose is fucking hell on earth.

PermaRenter Says:
Techies put 80 hours while getting paid for 40 hours.

When you say "techies", I assume you exclude those fuckers whose incompetence gets them promoted all the way to a high-falutin job called "Architect". Those ass-clowns have figured out somehow to sink 80 hours of wasted productivity in 40 hours of meetings. No actual work, just verbal diarrhea.

As far as I can tell, these ass-clowns do absolutely nothing - and yet judging from the number of worthless resumes that float in, this area seems to be crawling with these jargon spewing maggots. What happened to all the engineers?

OO said:
I’d say most $120K jobs here have a working hour that goes with the pay, 50-55 hours. The extra hours could be entirely voluntary, and you won’t lose your job if you do not put in extra hours.

Are you counting the time spent dialing up from home?

I agree that most jobs require "only" 50 hours at work, but as Brother Surfer-X pointed out, you also spend at least an hour every day commuting in your shitmobile from the shitbox to the shitcube, along with all the other shitheads on the shitty-brick-road.

A lot of people I know spend a few hours every night - quality time, like 9pm to midnight - either checking email, or on conference calls with other shitheads in China or India or Romania or Israel, because the pinheaded bosses figured it was a great idea to off-shore the work so that they get 24-hour productivity.

I spent a while in Phoenix, Toronto and Dublin in the last year - nobody does this kind of crap over there. And they get paid plenty too.

Long story short, the quality of life in the Bay Area reeks. You don't realize it as long as you are crawling around in this dung-heap with the other dung-beetles. The moment you get on a plane and go (almost) anywhere, you begin to get a whiff of what life is _really_ like.

Well, I have to disagree with surfer-x, because when we talk about quality of life, we don't care about average. When we talk about pay, we don't care about average either, we care about what applies to a specific sector that is pertinent to your particular situation.

As I said before, I think families making less than $100K should just quit and leave the BA, it is not worth it. There are lots of $250K, $300K families out there and if they don't fuck themselves up by buying a $1.5M home in the last few years, they are doing just fine. Why do we care about statistics when it comes to our own quality of life? Most Americans are already living a life better than 90% of population on earth, should we bother ourselves about what an "average" experience of earthly life is? You learn about it, perhaps make a comment of "oh shit", and then move on with your own life.

Work hours follow product development cycles, you have crunch time and you can take some time off after a major release. Christmas and Thanksgiving are very slow around office so 6-hour day is not unusual. If you work on the customer-facing side of things, you may even have to run up travel hours. But most worker bees get their weekends off, unless they are trying to get promoted or something.

Speaking of the 8-hour work day, it is not like you dedicate the 8 hours, every second of it, to your job. You chitchat around water cooler, make a few comments on the group admin's boob job, go take a long lunch, and post a few comments on patrick.net. Compared to the techie counterparts working in India/ China or those who work in high finance before they make MD, most BA worker bees really have little to complain about on their "long hours" except for the commute.

Life elsewhere maybe better on paper, and I assure you I have actively looked internationally and domestically, only that the "good life" either comes with a much reduced pay for the same job (even after adjustment for cost of living) and a less upside potential, or you will have to deal with a much more compromised environment, something like Houston.

I won't retire in BA unless I am at least a double-digit millionaire with today's purchasing power, but BA is not a bad place to work towards a comfortable retirement elsewhere.

Another one bites the dust!

http://www.fdic.gov/bank/individual/failed/columbian.html

OO,

I have to disagree with you on 300K households. To me it is more like 240K if two people are working. Please go to http://www.glassdoor.com/index.htm

Posted by Goggle Engineer in glassdoor.com:

You are expected to deliver. This doesn't mean 80-hour work weeks (at least in my end of the company), but you are expected to make goals and hold yourself to them -- and ideally deliver something that beats the rest of the industry while you're at it. Do not come to Google expecting a research environment; there's plenty of research going on, but if it's not in your 20% time you'd better have something to ship. I list this as a con only because I suspect this bit some of the people who rated Google negatively.

The company has grown really fast. This has caused some strain, both in terms of infrastructure and in communication. Many of the nooglers are fresh out of college, and the naivety cuts both ways: they're simultaneously over-eager to re-engineer everything in sight, and bitter when perks change or they don't get promoted fast (nevermind that it's still better than the rest of the industry -- they've never been there). With rapid growth comes a lack of focus, as well, with weird projects with no monetization story. (Caveat: I'm in Ads, where money matters.)

I get the impression that we've got our share of bad managers. My manager (and the two immediately above him) are all great -- technically sharp, caring, and happy to get their hands dirty. But I've heard horror stories from other teams, and you can read plenty of them on this site, I'm sure -- preference for low employee numbers, suckups and yes-men, etc. I suspect most of the thoroughly bitter people have gotten a bad manager and not requested a transfer out from under him/her.

On that note, Google does a bad job of handling underperformers. They try hard to help crappy engineers and managers improve, but at some point you've got to cut your losses -- a bad employee, particularly one with a bad attitude, is poison that eats away at morale. I've seen people go through two or more performance improvement plans before finally getting the much-needed axe.

Google also does a fair-to-middling job of handling *overperformers*. I've gotten a few spot bonuses for successful projects (which, to be fair, were tens of times larger than the bonuses I got at similarly-sized companies in the past), but the motivating effect of the Founder's Awards are gone. No matter how many millions of dollars you make the company, if you're not in LSE's pet segments, no Founder's Award for you -- it'll go to some guys in search or something. Google is done making millionaires -- for those of us who got who got here after the IPO, the only way we'll retire is a 401(k). Again, having worked in industry outside of Google, this makes me wistful but not angry. I don't expect other people to make me a millionare.