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Treasuries, Safety, and Interest


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2008 Sep 11, 1:52am   22,305 views  185 comments

by Patrick   ➕follow (59)   💰tip   ignore  

30 year bond

A weird thing happens when investors get nervous: huge amounts of money flow into US Treasuries, driving up the price, and driving down the yield.

Say that a 30-year bond has a yield of 5%. Some bad thing happens, and then investors rush to buy that bond for safety, bidding against each other, and increasing the cost of the bond so that the yield falls to 4%.

So paradoxically, during turbulent times, the US government can borrow for less when everyone else has to pay more!

But what happens when the bad thing is the potential insolvency of the US government itself? The disastrous decision by Paulson to make us all liable for the fraud perpetrated by Fannie and Freddie is a bad thing, but it's a bad thing that threatens those very bonds people look to for safety.

Is it time to short US treasuries? How can I short US treasuries anyway? Is that something you just call up your broker and ask them to do?

Patrick

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178   EBGuy   2008 Sep 19, 9:14am  

From Troy on CR:
Thanks to this blog and patrick.net when I started a new job in mid-2006 I kept my 401K in the MM plan. I only made 2% or so, but that's better than LOSING 10-18% of my retirement principal in these funds over this term.

180   snmr   2008 Sep 19, 10:00am  

OOO Wrote :
Based on our understanding of the American banksters, when they get bailed out, you believe that they will just pay down their debt and be done with it? They won’t use the Fed money to…for example, bet on something else to reap more gains, since the money is free anyway?

Leakage is what caused inflation. The Fed just cannot sprinkle money exactly at the place where it is needed. On top of this, there’s huge moral hazard of NOT punishing those who f*cked up. You think these banksters are going to be prudent in the future? They will just lay larger and larger bets because they are truly “too big to fail”.

Now that we are already in deep shit and the only way is bailout, can we atleast ask our elected officails to make sure that there are rules in place to guarantee that bank uses fed money to pay off thier debt.

One way to partly fix the moral hazard would be to fire the whole top level management without severance of any bank that used FED help.
If they can bend rules to stop things like short trading and lend free public money, can't they void the severance package clause in a contract of a CEO ?

181   SP   2008 Sep 19, 4:32pm  

Now that we are already in deep shit and the only way is bailout, can we atleast ask our elected officails to...

No, fuck off. Where do you think you live? In some kind of democracy, fool? This is a government of the banksters, by the banksters and FOR the banksters. Just who do you think _you_ are to ask your elected official to do anything?
[sarcasm off]

182   snmr   2008 Sep 19, 4:50pm  

Did we not recently kill thousands of civilians to spread democracy and free markets ?

.....hypocrisy at its best !

183   OO   2008 Sep 19, 5:18pm  

EBGuy,

I decided to suspend sale, not because that I think that housing price will hold (in terms of purchasing power), but because I don't want to get caught in the weird USD unwinding during closing and end up holding a bunch of waste paper. With the crisis unfolding at a much faster speed, I really have no idea what is going to happen a week or two from now.

I had one prospective buyer earlier who turned out couldn't secure enough financing, two-income, solid credit rating. The mortgage market is certainly deteriorating fast.

184   thenuttyneutron   2008 Sep 20, 2:00am  

http://money.cnn.com/2008/09/20/news/economy/bailout_proposal/index.htm?postversion=2008092012

A 700 billion dollar bill here. Just add that to the 850 billion already sepnt to save the thieves of America!

185   justme   2008 Sep 21, 4:12am  

Morgan Stanley is the new Haliburton...

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